YOU DON'T SEE THIS EVERYDAY...

0:00 it's not very often as Traders and investors that we see a 100% statistical fact but in today's video we take a look at the postelection pump and what it means for us as Traders investors are things going to get better worse or are we going to see a sideways Market in today's video we take a look at The Good the Bad and the Ugly from a data big dark pool transaction and options perspective and boy oh boy there are a lot of transactions going through this market right now with consumer discretionary absolutely going ballistic against Staples we know that it seems to be risk on but it could be some other areas of the markets that you need to be looking at right now so we'll break down stocks Commodities and cryptos in our special weekend edition join us guys this is going to be one not to

0:49 miss well welcome back everybody to the special weekend edition of The Daily Show my name's Tom and in today's video we need to talk macro leading indicators and of course the hottest parts for the next couple of months why because a sea of green light this means a few different things for us as Traders and investors first up I wanted to go over to how is the sentiment looking in the markets do we have people all agreeing with each other or is everyone confused about the next 12 months well as we can see here we posted over on our X account links in the description down below to follow so that you can get some of the latest charts that we do Post out there online and you'll notice that everyone's confused over the next 12- month targets some people are looking under 5500 a lot of people are looking in the middle between where it is right now and some

1:36 are going Ultra bullish with some people now marking out 7,000 plus over the next 12 months now should we mean see this is kind of like concerning or not well let's take a look at the stats since 1928 when it comes to the S&P 500 return and non recessionary years yes if we started from October 30th which we were sitting around 5841 on the market markets we would have to expect to the year end at 6209 as the average kind of Target now as you're about to see it could be even better than that over the next 3 months and there are some stats that you just cannot miss cuz 100% track record in similar scenarios is pretty mind-boggling when you think about it let's go back though to the beginning fundamentals are the markets cheap right

2:23 now well probably by anyone's metric not really if we take a look here at 25-year Ford PE and this chart by the way is over on our X account links in the description so you can get those you'll notice here that a lot of sectors are actually trading above their 25-year averages now is this something you need to be concerned about well of course it means that we're getting into a period of time now where you've got to start questioning everything into 2025 and 26 now does everybody feel bullish right now absolutely why well we're in the goldilock zone tax cuts new regimes Total changes in the markets and of course basically small caps are coming up which is going to make people eventually fomo in and what we know right now is we know we're not seeing the levels of margin taken by Wall

3:10 Street and Retail investors that we've had in similar bubbling periods so is there more room for growth well absolutely you would think and you can see here that what directions do the a members think that the market will do in 6 months most people are bullish but there's still a lot of neutrality and bears out there of course we will get these reads over the next subsequent weeks and see whether we've got any kind of fomo really coming through so what about this stat what if we consider non-recessionary years and we consider a third month forward return when we've already had 2 weeks prior having a pretty strong growth well as it turns out when you combine both of these together you end up getting 100% track record of a very nice gain of 7.2% over the next 3 months now that

3:58 would take the S&P 500 to around 6300 now that's kind of mindboggling in itself when you think about where people believe the market should be at so have the earnings really met up to expectations here well really all of this is just in line with all of the data statistics that we've been talking about on the channel recently when we've had gains and GAP UPS since the election like we did then we usually go into a very solid 3month return again the mean is 88.8% probably no surprises there when we take take a look at the Russell 2000 we can also see that when we Gap up 5% like we did and we look at the next 3 month of returns it does seem to be even a better sector and this is what we call the postelection pump but really it's

4:44 the 2016 Playbook starting to play out again and as you'll notice in a moment it looks like we're following a very very similar path which could mean that we're on for quite a long ride here in terms of these markets with whether you go to semiconductors small caps Transportation bio Banks retail steel or anything else you'll notice that generally the markets that you start to see weakness in in the economy well do any of these look really negative to you on the chart and if the answer is no then of course yeah you wouldn't really see weakness here and of course this chart is due to Grant hawkridge over on X if you want to follow him and I always like that it's called the canary in the coal mine indicator and we always look at a few of those ourselves here on the channel why because they do show what tends to be a

5:31 weakness in debt markets and we just don't have that at this point in time it's expected that deregulation is of course coming through and that's going to be a big deal for specifically the regional Banks so let's now take a look at the postelection bump whether it be 2016 2020 or 2024 in each year we've always had this postelection pump at least over the last kind of decade and the reason why this is important is because it tends to affect the rust 2000 the most especially now that we know that we're going to most likely get a rollover of of course those corporate tax cuts that we already saw back in 2016 so will it fade will it give a pullback in early 2025 well the answer is most likely yes but any

6:17 pullbacks that happen over the next subsequent weeks are more than likely to be bought up fairly quickly and the answer really comes back down to seasonality this is a period of strength then we get a period of sideways or even weakness and then we tend to continue to run into what people will be calling a bubble if they aren't already already so let's take a look here at also 2016 election years versus where we are right now are we following a similar track well as it turns out we certainly are indeed the areas that you usually want to be in over this period have been the Russell 2000 the midcaps which we saw huge dark poool transactions on over the last couple of weeks leading into the election and of course the financials themselves these all tend to benefit

7:03 what doesn't do so well well initially Staples utilities Health Care real estate and materials and again the market seems to be kind of synergizing and mirroring this particular trade it's like they expect very similar policies maybe even to create even more gains for those particular sectors what about margin debts that's something we need to be worried about well we're hitting an all-time high on markets and we're not hitting an all-time high on margin debt right now now so should we be worried about a bubble popping just yet the answer is quite simply no now will we alert you to when that possibly does happen absolutely of course as a community here we always look together to find these particular results but in light of what has just happened over the last week you have to suspect that

7:48 there's going to be a sugar rushi in markets now a lot of people in the comments Down Below have said something pretty smart this isn't going to end well uh that is probably very true and of course it'll be for up to us to Fe figure out when is it going to go bad and I doubt it's going to happen anytime soon but of course during 2025 during 20 and even 26 potentially we need to be on the lookout because there will be times when you're going to be freaking out in these markets and remember when everyone's feeling good you do need to start to put those blinkers on caution caution caution especially with people that have 5 to 10 year outlooks things look good now but they may not even as early as next year now where do markets look good well if you've been watching us for a while we have been loving Bitcoin yes we're not a massive Bitcoin

8:34 Channel but we do talk crypto every day Bitcoin usually ethereum few others now because things are really doing well the post election pump is a big deal for specifically crypto markets and of course as I mentioned in today's video I'll be talking about what I think the market might be doing with Bitcoin over the next 12 months how much higher can it go well the answer is in my opinion a little bit more quite a lot more actually which we'll talk about in a moment let's go through the dark poool trades you can't say these guys don't know what's up sell at the highs buy at the lows yes absolutely ethereum has been going bonkers over the last two days and as we suspected we saw some large dark poool trades coming in just

9:19 at the close there and these of course are going to lead into effectively Gap fills now is this important yeah we're seeing alts absolutely go ballistic across the board and I would like to think we were absolutely on to this one specifically looking at ethereum and the break to the upside remember that particular setup comes straight out of our dark our day trading master class which has had links in the description down below it is replicable and you can copy it into things like Metals currencies indices and even stocks let's move over now to whether we saw big transactions coming into Bitcoin ETFs well again the answer is quite simply yes we've seen large accumulation throughout 2020 before since we started to get these and of course we just had a huge transaction come in near the Friday

10:04 close since then what's happened we've seen a bit of an uptick in the crypto markets across the board and this bodess very well when it comes to accumulation into a larger run post election pump everyone getting hyped on crypto and that's starting to spread outside of the finance Network now I'll just tell a to story here recently I was on yeah a fishing charter and I was having a chat to some people on there and they were starting to sniff out crypto again now these are not the traditional people that are always in the finance markets but they were starting to talk about it and this has all happened over the last week so remember this type of stuff spreads like wildfire tends to feed upon itself and as we know with crypto markets we really see that huge animal spirit type of trade the huge Bulls come in and then

10:51 the Bears crush it back down so you've got to be very careful about what you're doing but things do start to improve there so let's take a look now at fxi of course the China large caps have we seen transactions going through those well not only is earnings coming out this week for some of the major companies but we're starting to see stimulus come from China and on top of that also a lot of people beginning to discuss whether we're seeing accumulation we saw everyone sell that fomo back in October the early months there and now we're starting to see a nice base structure on the markets so it's a game of cat and mouse between the markets and of course the CCP in this case and we will be updating you because this week could be a decent Catalyst to either get that perfect 618 style entry retracement or of course to see a rally that now breaks

11:39 this structure and moves forward what about treasuries well as we mentioned the US 10 year is starting to look better breaking that downward trend line in terms of finding resistance and we saw large transactions start to form base on treasuries could this be a period of time where it does a little bit better we're starting to think so as it does look like it's getting that accumulated as we mentioned we're still in earning season and although we have economic news coming out as well including the CPI this week on Wednesday the PPI on Thursday by the way Veterans Day is open for the stock market uh for anyone that doesn't know it's just going to be the bonds Market that's closed and then retail sales on Friday it doesn't just stop there we've got Shopify sea Spotify 10 cent Disney and then of course we've

12:25 also got some other Chinese companies coming through so the Catalyst could be still fierce in this market and we've got to expect wild things to occur now just before we go into our normal kind of rotations charts and all of the key levels I wanted to give a shout out to you guys a few of you have been sending success especially over the last four to five months here of being able to think about markets differently and I just want to mention some of these stories and hopefully it will help each one of you gain a little bit of confidence in the approaches that we talk about here on the channel so this one comes from Cole demon Ai and he says yes this F Evolution stuff works I've been watching the videos for a couple of years and it's helped me a lot on insights strategy and risk management now this is of course an incredible profit to loss

13:10 ratio of 81.4 n% but I was kind of mentioning here that this is just one of the nice kind of stories that's coming out now whether it's from larger accounts yes I'm always surprised by some of the people that watch this channel some of you guys have a lot of money I will say but really just more the every day anywhere from 10,000 to 100,000 or maybe a little bit more have people been getting some exceptional results well Jacob sailor over here just sent me a message this week and he said Tom I just want to say um thank you and reach out uh to say that all the data you present to us on the channel each nights gives me basically some Edge now he lost $50,000 during 2022 when he got into trading usually going and chasing it but there's no harm in trying that of course he tried it he failed but this is

13:57 the life lesson in trading we all been there before we come in we find the bug we love it and then it doesn't go so well well what he's managed to do is turn it around through replication and specifically he's taken his account he's got a very nice return here year to date but you might say well 30% is not that good year to date based on the S&P well it actually turns out that this has been gained over here over the last 4 months and as he says here along with that account I've made another 9k to get to me the 50 and this was in only 4 months patience react don't predict remember guys come from that abundance mindset you will do better and I've got a lot of faith in each and every one of you out there to improve your trading and

14:42 investment Journey hopefully through watching this channel over the next 6 to 12 months why this could be one of the most pivotal periods for all of us in the last 20 years and I'm actually saying that because most people don't really realize what could be happening here we may be leading into a sugar rush that could go very badly and we must navigate it correctly do we know that yet no but if we see the lead indicators of course we'll be talking about it so speaking which do things look good right now well they look damn good when you look at the markets now if I asked you which sector has done the best over the last 3 months you would probably not have answered XL y yes consumer discretionary is now number one and it is being distorted of course by Tesla but it's still number one over the last 3 months guess what's second K not

15:29 usually something you would see in a recessionary period so Regional banking is doing well and solar got trashed over the last week of course it was actually doing incredibly well leading into the election but not so good anymore when we move over to the other markets over the last 5 days you can see here solar the worst gold kind of underperforming but we've got a key level on gold coming up in today's video that we like and K out in number one spot if we look at Friday it was a little bit of utilities and all over the place in terms of what was doing well and poorly let's now have a look at the S&P 500 we'll break this down because we just hit 6,000 in our previous video we talked about the 5980 6K level being possibly a zone of a

16:15 little bit of rest spite from this rally now of course as you've seen today if you're holding for a couple of weeks into months should you be terrified right now uh not really why because the stats are pretty damn good in fact we just saw 100% track record in yes a very simplistic way of kind of looking at the data and therefore not accounting for everything else but in similar situations the same runs we're looking at a potential here of 6300 over that period of time and most people are not probably calling for that now where is the advanced decline line improving yes is this good uh yes it is it's very strong and we've got that Island reversal gap which is again a very strong in Signal kind of indicator but let's take a look at the Futures Market

17:01 here and break that down options high level for the Monday open 6040 versus 5950 which you can see here is the low in general it's making a series of higher highs and higher lows and there is nothing to suggest any weakness remember we just saw some weakness that pushed us down to 5700 before the election we saw that there could be a pullback as big as 4% which would have taken us to 56 but during the election day we actually saw the markets revert and then of course show us that bullish sign we did talk about this in our live election stream where we just saw structure on both Bitcoin and of course the us500 way too strong before the election was called the Market's not stupid it tends to figure it out pretty quickly and the Futures Market was off and running so now that we're at 6K

17:46 could this be a bit of a temporary resistance yes it could be would we sell it no so let's have a look at the option strikes now for the week ahead and as you guys know 6,000 is the biggest key level psychologically and of course also from the call options whether you're looking at what's happening on the 11th of November the 12th of November or even the 15th of November 6K is what most people had for the year end not just right now when it comes to where we would be basically by December 31st so this strike here will bring in a lot of positive gamma it will effectively if it is beaten out get us going even further Higher and Higher and Higher and I have seen some people claiming that there'll be 6600 by year end which is a pretty

18:33 epic call I don't know if we're going to get anywhere up there but it does kind of blend itself in with this could be a temporary resistance level just because of the amount of money on the line in terms of calls and then we will most likely bounce through it again time trying to time this thing is going to be very very difficult but just you know think about it is what is your time Horizon is your time Horizon days well that's probably not going to be the best level yet to trade whereas if your time Horizon is weeks and months yeah I mean the market could still have quite a lot of upside let's move over to Nvidia we have approached that 150 several times here and we're continuing to find a bit of resistance off the 150 we're still in positive gamma the market is still of course ripping to the upside and if Nvidia takes 150 plus then we have to

19:20 suspect it's got even more in it I think eventually Nvidia is going to get to 180 at least from the kind of metrics that I'm looking at at this point let's move over now to Tesla now this had no chill remember Elon is probably one of the largest winners of this week maybe even arguably the largest business owner winner when it comes to what is going to happen over the next 12 months and Tesla is ripping off that news now I do have an interesting perspective I may talk about on our Monday live stream so make sure to join us there for that one because I do think that this may not last forever and we'll go through our reasons uh during the stream itself but realistically so join us but realistically going through 300 is just creating more positive gamma and it looks like you know we're sitting on another big core wall if we manage to

20:07 break through this we could be going to 363 I think it is we've got that on the charts coming up and yeah the market has no chill on this I would not go against this trade under any circumstances I would not try to short it can you take profit at key levels or you believe sure but you don't want to go against that one you're kind of going against the US economy right now if you're doing that and that may be a poor choice let's move over to the US 10 year it rejected this point obviously we saw large transactions coming through treasuries which also helps the treasury trade and a few people are probably probably looking at reprieve here as I mentioned in the last video the key to the treasury's position here is that people are feeling it people were absolutely sending me messages Tom what's going on it's terrible it's gone under 92 you

20:55 know oh it's going worse and worse and worse while whenever I see people freaking out and of course the sentiments shift completely in terms of people are freaking out you always know that means there's a pain trade people have lost their trades lost commitment and of course that's when Wall Street tends to strike now at this point has it really changed to the upside yet no but we do have big volumes as we mentioned and we're looking for a 9330 kind of close plus and if that happens good news in the other world of high yield junk that just broke out last week as well things looking a lot better in junk bonds and uh you can see here the downward trend line being broken above making a new higher high and really it looks like again it's risk on for the markets and you got to remember the markets came in with sentiment that was

21:42 actually more bearish than you would suspect into the election so that's why it's been able to rip as high as it has already people did take money off coming into this election period when we take a look at CPP up it's kind of a mixture of Two Worlds I would say it actually looks more bullish here than bearish where we're at currently in Copper but remember it dumped it rallied hard it's pulled back now this is an interesting level watch reaction here about 4 4.35 is going to be a key Zone if we break above that that's going to be a big news story I think for copper and we'll be watching this one very closely again it just really comes back to fxi and HSI though how do we see these big Chinese companies start to perform and are they coming out of effectively what is one of the worst recessions we've seen in some time uh in the big economies of the

22:28 world remember they China's gone through a recession while many other economies have not let's look at the US dollar US dollar of course at resistance here nothing much going on at this point so I think the dollar is hard to read just yet you'd have to say the trend is still up though overall gold not bad good rally good pullback don't mind this at all I'd like to see gold bugs pick this one back up somewhere around this kind of 2673 Zone it's not the strongest buy area yet uh but certainly a great sign off our first bull Zone that we've been leaving there for a while this was the completion of The Head and Shoulders it's actually been a very nice setup so far we're hoping it does better let's move over to Silver nothing yet still on support no transactions nothing to do unfortunately for silver it's just kind

23:14 to of sit there and wait and obviously if you're holding it yeah we're still bullish on it over the next 12 months so we've mentioned oil several times in the last video we spoke about how we thought it was looking a little bit weaker and stronger but I'd still say this is a confusing chart come back to oil when it getss less confusing if you're on the short though I can totally understand why and maybe it's going to that blue line there so let's take a look at Tesla now and obviously this stock just absolutely melted that 303 level very strong gains all positive gamma do not go against this stock if you took a bit of profit here don't worry about it no doubt at some point it will probably come back down now why is this so important well of course Elon is one of the biggest winners of the last week and more importantly this could lead into

23:59 363 basically you do not want to go against this particular market right now I think being bearish on that would be frankly terrifying now what else did we mention in the same video we talked about the coral walls both on Tesla if it got broken obviously ballistic and Nvidia if it got broken obviously ballistic now 150 did not get broken so this is the big core wall here if we do break and close above could we go higher well the answer is quite simply yes and I've kind of estimated between 173 180 could be the Target in the future for that stock now I want to mention one that we do on the Monday streams a lot but I know a lot of you guys don't watch the Monday stream some of you do which is awesome to see you there and what we've been talking about is crappy stocks now do I like Intel as an investment no do I think it's

24:44 fundamental suck yes do I think it's got good leadership and everything's going well no but that doesn't really matter my opinion doesn't really matter and neither does yours on this stock remember it's all about replication and I just want to mention this because this week we talked about this stock again and it's given us actually a better return than the market itself plus 12% now is this a replicable pattern yes it's actually out of our day trading masterclass in terms of setup and what you may notice is again it has more room potentially to run doesn't mean go jump into Intel now but it comes from that abundance mindset if you missed your favorite stock let's say Tesla or Nvidia or something there are other stocks to trade there are always other opportunities and of course at this stage I'd love this thing to go to the

25:29 Gap fill let's move over to the US 2K very strong 2400 obviously 2430 could be where it finds a little bit of a sideways kind of action but we've already seen the stats we kind of suspect this may do better over the next 3 months same thing with NASDAQ better over the next 3 months you'd have to say check mark pullbacks to be met by bull demand at this stage you'd have to say check mark and obviously we had a pullback in time so things look pretty good on all these markets for the US for now it's like a sugar rush across the board speaking of sugar rushes it's the crypto Market two last massive dark pool transactions we now know went through here and the results are history of course we already picked this up down here and here in terms of we thought this would be strong everyone in our private Community already had alerts for it above these highs so realistically

26:16 this thing is absolutely ballistic and it's probably just playing partial catch up 32 to 3300 you'd have to think is the next Target for something like this very strong stuff in ethereum and it's happening across all of the cryptos look at cardano here even times of recording very strong gains but still well under where it was earlier this year and to put in perspective still well under where we were during the ballistic of the last rally so I'm not saying cardano is going to $3 or anything but alts are starting to fire up because guess what the best one is going so Bitcoin 77 alltime High very nice stuff here from Bitcoin itself and you've got to kind of be more bullish on it over the next next 12 months now we've already shown you that the post election pump tends to

27:02 blead in to Stronger gains here on crypto and as I mentioned start of today's video or during it I was talking about where do I think Bitcoin could go well I'd love for you to pause the video right now and put comments down below at how high you think Bitcoin will be over the next 12 months now these are just sooth saying crystal ball predictions but obviously I looked at the LW of diminishing returns and I looked at what I think it can do forward projection wise based on previous cyle history and I came out with 120k plus uh now is that insane some of you might say it is I don't think it is uh I think people will be calling like quarter of a million by the end of this rally and I still think I think those people are starting to get insane but really what I want is people to call 1 million and two trillion of coin 2 million of coin cuz when that

27:47 happens you know that you'll be getting in the fomo zone if not the full bubble pop all right let's move over to what you need to be looking at US Bank holiday on Monday Veterans Day obviously uh and it will not close the stock market just the bonds market so just remember that CPI on Wednesday 830 a.m. and then of course we have PPI on Thursday Jerome pal annoying us at 300 p.m. in the afternoon and then on Friday we have core retail sales so still a big week of news make sure to watch and of course make sure to subscribe guys if you're interested in finding out more about the replication patterns that have been pretty damn successful I got to say this week check out our day trading masterclass links in the description down below I'll be writing a post election newsletter so make sure to check out for that this week early on

28:33 our thoughts follow us on X follow us on linked in as well and remember guys that it all comes back to understanding whether you're in a Trader or an investor we do both on this channel and it comes back to that abundance mindset regardless of your opinions on the US election this week you really have to put your bias to the side and instead focus on the price action focus on of course what has been the data the options flow all these types of things things and I think that's really important to do and on the channel here you know we we just cut through that stuff you know again there are emotions on each side there are all sorts of things coming through but if you miss it abundance abundance abundance please remember don't chase things that you don't get good risk reward on or don't chase things that are just stupid and you don't have the ideas around them

29:19 that never leads to success you have a fantastic weekend and we'll see you in the next one bye for now guys