0:01 Blackweight. Remember the name and going to win the World Cup by the emergence. >> Welcome to the cricket betting podcast with me, Ed Hawkins. This is the only podcast which tells you exactly what happens in India versus Pakistan. This is a one-off special pod for the biggest betting event in the world. It's brought to you by our new partners, Betright. Thanks to Betright and the Cricket betting podcast. There is a sign up offer for listeners and a special priced boost uh throughout this relationship. We've got one of those for this India versus Pakistan game. So stay tuned. The offer is bet 10 quid and get a 10 accumulator.
0:51 New customers only. Enter code aka 10. Minimum five-fold accumulator with total odds of evens or greater on betright. There you go. Get online now and sign up and take advantage of that. Aka, as I said, we do have a special bet boosted specifically from Betright for this podcast for India versus Pakistan. But Paul Christian checking in with you. No, Richard Mann is traveling. Um, just to say if you wonder whether any two of us, but Paul, it's not hype, is it to call this the biggest betting event in the world, it's absolutely massive. >> No, absolutely. It's off the scale. Um, and what a bonus because let's be honest, none of us thought we were going to get this. So, we've got this and you know, they might meet again in the final
1:36 the way things are going, which really would be the biggest event ever, wouldn't it? >> Uh, yeah. uh don't fancy Pakistan's chances of getting out with the trophy uh from India if they did win it. There you go. That's a that's a political podcast for you. Um it's not hyper is it Paul to tell you when we say this is what happens. This is what happens in these games. Last week's uh pod produced five out of seven winners on the best bets. We're absolutely nailing it. It is very exciting at the moment. It is very exciting. I mean, I think we've been going consistently making profits since we started the podcast last July, but this year, what a start. I mean, the
2:21 best bets over 100% up ROI this year. Um, you know, if it wasn't for England somehow, well, failing miserably in the chase against West Indies, we' have got the absolute perfect clean sweep in our best bets. So, um, long may it continue. Yeah, and we're returning whopping old profits on the VIP channel, which you can subscribe to in the comments below. And not only could you subscribe, you can get 50% off to the Telegram service using code ashes 25. How are we doing on that? Well, we've had two out of three winners this time as we record. So, I think our ROI on that has ticked over to 10% on the lifetime and and approaching
3:08 30 points plus in February alone. Why are you not getting signed up to these things? Come on, go and do it now in the comments section below. Um, we are saving the best bets from this special one-off podcast for that VIP Telegram service and the free tips channel. So, you need to sign up. We will have one bet each on this uh pod for you but the majority of bets are going to be going into those channels. So you need to get um online. So, India versus Pakistan Sunday 13:30. We've got the team news, we got the match winner, we got strategies, trades, we got nuggets, we got player win rates. We start with the betting threes on India Sky Bet power
3:53 bet fair betway. Pakistan um stand out at 7-2 with 365. India won the last five in this format. They've also won the last five in IC events. People will tell you Pakistan have got a problem against India um in the biggest of the big games. Um India probable lineup for you is Ishan Abashek Shan we expect to come back after that stomach bug. Tilac Sky Hardic Duvet Ringu Axar Varon Ashit Bumra India last 30 games in T20 average score of 173 they concede an average of 157. Pakistan those numbers are 156 and 136. So you can see the difference between
4:40 the size and where the strengths probably lie in those teams. Obviously India the best batting team in the world in terms of strike rate. Faran I have opening the batting for Pakistan. Salmon Baba Usman No Shad Fahim Afred Abraham and it's a question of whether they go the spinner turk or salmon mer to complete their 11. Paul, what do you make of India so far? Fortunate to get one get away with one against the Yanks. Jacqueline High batting performance against Namidia when 300 was on. Came up way short at 209 which would cost back absolute tons on those runs lines. >> Yeah, very unconvincing to be honest. I mean it's early days and they won both
5:25 games comfortably enough. So does it matter? But you know, I've got my question marks to say the least, especially about the batting. You know, like they're good players, but I don't know if you get this sense, but look at think about the Indian size that we've become used to in recent years. They had leaders even if like we've often questioned whether Kohish would play in this format or not, but he's a leader. Shreasa a leader, Shman Gill leader, Rohit Sharma a leader, none of them in this side. And particularly against Namibia, you know, they just got lost in that game completely, didn't they? Like the par was up at 270. Um I'm really, you know, I'm not I'm just not that convinced. I mean, they're still going to take a lot of beating,
6:11 but if I was South Africa looking at them or even New Zealand, I wouldn't be terrified. >> Yeah. I suppose the thing with injur at the moment with their batting is you're right who is in that lineup is is taking the innings by the scruff of the neck and controlling it. And we criticized Indie didn't win in the passing T20 for for Coley and Sharma probably being too slow. But of course in that T20 World Cup and in the final Kohley took that innings by the scruff of the neck and said right this is the score we're posting and he got them there. They don't actually have a player like that. They're a bit sort of England ashes really in terms of oh this is just the way we play. We're just going to smash it and they're all kind of leaving it a bit to each other.
6:58 >> Absolutely. And and I mean I know we've become used to this just smash it all the way through the innings from the IPL. But as we're seeing that isn't necessarily the way forward in this World Cup. No one's really doing that. And you know again yesterday it's hard to get away from that. They were on for like 270 plus easily and I don't know they just got they went too hard didn't they? And then suddenly they were like three or four down. They didn't know what to do. So look I mean you look at this game here and we've already seen that this ground is not uh you know it's not a ground where you can just hit it for 20 overs at all. Um I could see him getting bogged down. Could definitely see him
7:44 getting bogged down. >> Yeah, it's not it's not this is the way we play surface. We'll come to the ground guide in a sec. Let's just check in with Pakistan. Uh you did well to get up to beat the Dutch thinking about India Pakistan contest as a whole though. Paul unfair to pin Pakistan as a side who choke or can't cope with the pressure in in these IC games against their fierce rivals because essentially India are have just been the much better team against most of the teams that have been playing in these tournaments in recent years. >> Yes. I mean they are the inferior side and you could certainly understand with
8:30 all the politics behind it them being a bit cautious in these games but on the on all recent evidence they've been terrible against India. All I would say is I mean I wasn't convinced at all about Pakistan to side. I'm still not really but they have they are in form they're in better form at this point in time than they have been in going into or in the early stages of those recent ICC events. And of course this isn't in India. This is neutral venue. >> Yeah. Important is a neutral venue and and the ground guide. Let's get on to that because I think that gives us the angle on the match odds analysis. So night games at the RPS and this is a night game. 20 out 21 out of 29 have been won by the chase getting
9:16 7.7 RPO. More recent study sample of all games since 2021. 13 matches, 10 out of 13 won by the chase and a very similar RPO. We often talk about a surface being required in these mismatches and I think that's fair to say this is a mismatch given we've got 7-2 Pakistan from 365 in this game. We need some sort of leveler whether that be conditions overhead or underfoot. They're definitely getting that at the RPS with that massive chase bias. And Paul, feel free to shoot me down, but I'm backing Pakistan here at significant odds against with that chase bias in their favor. What's your thoughts on um how the game
10:04 goes and do Pakistan have to chase to win the match? >> I don't think they have to chase. Um but it's certainly an advantage especially in the night games. Um I mean notably in the um matches so far they've been won by the defender but only one was a night game. Um I do think there is a squeak they've got a squeak here if they bat first and they can put on 160 170 is not an easy place to chase but um it's definitely an advantage. I mean the Dubai game, I think you're right. You got to disregard that because Dubai, we saw in that tournament it was Chaser won virtually every game. >> All righty. I think I think we're close to concurring there, which is >> Yeah, >> which is good. But we've got uh we want to look at sixes markets. We also want
10:50 to look at the run strategy. Sixes pull. We been absolutely nailing winner after winner on uh the VIP channel. It's been like shooting fish from a barrel for you. you've spotted something on this game. >> Again, the line is totally wrong. So, um, Bet Fair, Patty Power, Sky Bet, they're all up. Uh, 15.56 is in this game. So, 15 T20 internationals now in the last 5 years. None of them finished above 12. So, 15 out of 15 winners. um two 80% of them were below 10 and 2/3 were below 9. So 15.5 is completely the
11:36 wrong line. And remember as well that a lot of those games only reached a higher 12. You had um mismatches where the better side was batting first and they still didn't get anywhere near Australia only got five the island for example. >> Yes. It's um it's peculiar that the the the layers aren't um picking up on the trend. Normally they would have um spotted it by now, but long may continue and whisper it. Don't tell anybody else. Um let's talk a run strategy. Um I do have a feeling for something in play with Pakistan potentially if they're batting first and going well. This is a strategy we return to well across all formats really and a reliable team in terms of if they can get a start if they
12:24 can get a partnership going then the time to get against them go unders on runs and there is form for that certainly against India the last time they played 91 for two to 98-5 and then to 159 is all they posted and in the last T20 World Cup in New York chasing 119 73 for two to 113 for seven. So we're looking for a partnership in that sort of that sort of first three to four wicket zone I suppose. Can they go put 50 or 60 on and and then look for the market to spike up and then go unders. That is an opportunity and one which has paid off in the past with
13:09 Pakistan. Um hopefully they do it from the power play and then we can go unders after the first six. They are sort of set up to do that with Farhan in decent form, but we'll come back to him. Paul, you've got something on runs. >> Yeah, I completely agree. Um you want to be backing unders in running for sure. This is not with the exception of maybe the last two or three overs when they're slogging. This is a very hard thing. It's a very hard track to um score once the spinners get on. might well be a used pitch as well. This is the fourth game there. Um and Pakistan have certainly got form for collapsing after after a good start and so have India to be honest with you. Like I say, look at the last game Namibia, right? They they've ended up
13:55 missing Barbas under 65 runs. Um it's not going to be easy for New Batsman to come in at all in say the 11th swap over. And also um just to add as well with in terms of going against Pakistan, this is India's strength for me. When Varane gets seed in the middle overs, when Varane gets on, that's when teams collapse. You know, India can run through teams. They can just the scoring just completely dries up. >> Yeah, I do wonder whether they might try and shoehorn cold deep into this team as well given what the surface is like. I mean if they do that that would definitely lend itself to the to the Pakistan uh trade to short their runs because you var combined with Kep in in the sort of mid lows for Pakistan would
14:41 be an absolute nightmare. I don't they would have to obviously weaken their batting which they may be worried about given that it is the low scoring uh surface and I mean how many spinners do you actually need because they could bowl Abishek they could bowl Tilac um they've obviously got Axar in there already but um Caldic may well come into consideration um remember to sign up to bet right signups do support the cricket betting podcast to come back every week and do give you these special uh oneoff pods for the biggest of games. We may return to do a one-off SP special throughout this uh T20 World Cup for potentially semi-finals or the final, but um we'll keep you posted on that. So, do sign up
15:26 to Betright, please, so we can keep coming back. We still have to give you that special price boost from Betright, which we have requested and there are other specials boosted with them as well. Stay tuned to find out um what the bet is. Uh Paul, you got any more nuggets for this one? >> Well, yeah. So, I mean, building on what you were saying about the spin, um, look, for me, I would be looking to bowl 14 overs plus of spin here, both sides. And they've both got the players, they both got the part-time spinners. Possibly the way to go here is player performances. Um, I mean, we've seen with Varon very reliable on that, very, very reliable with Lewis many times in the VIP. Noaz Muhammad Noaz more than
16:13 anyone, right? He's been super reliable. Um, SUB has been reliable. Uh, like the lines aren't all out on these player performances, but you know, if we can get IU around the 30 31.5, you know, Newaz about 27, that's fine by me. >> Yeah, bets like that are going to be be posted in VIP. Just a little nugget from me before we move on to players to follow. This is specifically looking at the sixes market just in case we've got that Pakistan uh collapse and 30 40 could well win at sort of a top bat market that does that does open up the possibility of most sixes um wins. So, um, just looking at
17:02 Cricstats's numbers on this and you can sign up to cricstats.ai and suggest you do so to use all their incredible betting data. So, you can check the data for markets such as most sixes. So, Farhan averages 1.54 sixes per game in the last 30. So, no surprise to see him 13 to five favorite. But the value comes when you look at players who are second and third on that list over those 30 games. So shadow but 1.2 not far behind you're getting 15-2 with bet 365 now is third on that list 0.860s 860s per game, 8 to one bet 365. Also check out deaf bet who tend to mirror bet 365 prices on those markets. I think the the only two firms which do um most
17:49 sixes per team. Let's talk about player win rates. We'll go to Pakistan first. Top run score. Farhan 25% with the bat, but he will be going for three in a row. I do sort of mindful to consider shorting him actually in this game just because of the type of player he is. He is consistently inconsistent. So he is not a guy I would expect to be putting scores together in terms of three in a row. I have 21% uh the 22% on top bowler. I'll give you prices um as we go on these. Um a 3D has a win rate of just 10% on top bowlers. He's one to swerve Sam and Mera
18:34 35% win rate that's from 14 games only however so a little bit concerned about the um study sample on that one uh betright have boosted Baba Aam to 4:1 for top Pakistan batsman there's no suggestion that he should be as short as that salmon a 4:1 uh you can get 4:1 uh Baba uh generally I think Farhan 3 to one with Hills top bat skyback power um who else we got uh Agar BS bit of 7-2 um and top bowler I'll find for you now
19:22 with now has the one to look out for oh my lord Paul 7 to one uni Bet B bet Victor 10 bet sky bet power. Oh, whisper it. Don't tell anybody about that. Um, uh, Paul, who are you following on Pakistan? >> Like I said, I like the dualpurpose players. I think that Noaz rock solid on the player performance. Plus, I mean, he came in at five in the last game and he has bat as low as four over the years. Uh, I think he's 14 to1. Not all the firms are up yet. 14 to1 may have been 16 to1 back. That's value. Could look at Shadab as well even to be honest with you. Look, I can see it's been a very
20:08 low scoring game. I mean another interesting stat. Sorry to just go back on to the runs and 60 seconds, but 15 matches, 300 total match runs has only landed three times in 15 matches and 14 out of 15 were under 316 and the line is generally going off like 318, 319. So it's an under thing. Now I think with loads of quality spin on both sides um this could easily be a like 140 141 kind of game in which case I think that some of these big prices like Noaz in particular Shadow particular Faheen he'll be 28th we know we've seen him one win so many times over the years even Shaheen Freedy you know he can come and slog it to
20:53 death and get 30 and he could be interested in that total sixes market even. >> Yeah. Um a 3D 66s with 10 bet for him is 28 with William Hill. No 16s hills bet Victor Boil and Tbeet. Uh this just this game just seems like one of those where we're really in the matrix and very uh >> there's there's a lot of opportunity here. Also I mean I mean um India's new B new ball bowling has been outstanding right I mean I wouldn't trust that Pakistan top order at all as you say Far Than's on a run but he's very inconsistent also very inconsistent very easy to see India getting into him and the middle
21:39 order to take over >> yeah uh just a point on consistency sort of those top bat numbers we really want to be seeing sort of 30% numbers for top bats Um let's look at India players to follow and it is time to discuss that bet right boost price which we've specifically requested I'm extremely keen on Abashek Sharma because he wins at 38% of the time he is due we're getting 3 to one top India bat thanks to Betright and to put that in context he's 11 to4 uh else where uh Sky has been uh winning at 15% % um uh 10-3 with bet right that's a boost 11 to4 var 24% win
22:27 rate top bowler uh that is a boost as well Paul India players to bet with or get against well I mean you're right absolutely that is value epa no doubt about it I mean his record is spectacular um my only concern is more the same what I was saying before I just think it's a lowscoring game so you instinctively more with a middle order but then equally Pakistan bat first 130 all out you'd love to be on three to one abishek wouldn't you and he's only got to get you know probably 35 to win so I mean you know again what would the run think of it that way round the run line for Abishek is about 31.5 32.5 something like that and that's
23:13 5 to six the chances are you'll win this market with 45, right? So, that's not a 3 to1 chance, is it? Um, on the bowler front, I like Von. Uh, I think I'd probably prefer to do his performance though, just because it's he's such a wide open market, top India bowler. >> Yeah. And also, it's one to wait for team news because if Kep comes in, Cold Deep's win rate is in the 40s. study sample not quite there but uh cuz Varon and Culdeic don't generally tend to play together but um Caldep definitely won potentially in play so to speak once we know team use that is something for the VIP are you subbed up yet why not I'm
23:58 going to give you 50% off the Ashes code 25 uh that's the one to use to sub up with the VIP channel Bets for Pakistan versus India the biggest betting event of the here will be going into that VIP channel. Paul, should I pin you down for one bet? If you had to absolutely have it now. >> Oh, absolutely. Under 15.56 is with bet fair. Patty power sky bet. >> All right, that's Paul's top rated bet. My top rated bet is that bet boosted abeta 3 to1 top India back. Go and get signed up to that. You'll get the aka boost offer for you as well. This has been the cricket betting podcast with me, Ed Hawkins, and Paul Krishna Merty, winning
24:44 you money consistently. Uh we are going to be back uh next time, next week for another usual cricket betting podcast where we tell you exactly what happens in the T20 World Cup. We'll see you then.
