India Will Not Benefit from PM Modi's Visit to China for SCO Summit

0:00 [Music] Good day friends. In today's video, I'll talk of the coming visit of Prime Minister Modi to China to attend the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. In yesterday's media interaction, which is on August 26th, foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed that the Prime Minister will attend the SEO summit. He will be there in China on August 31st and 1st September. Since Mishri did not mention Modi staying back in China for the Victory Day parade which is on 3rd September and it's a very big event, it is fair to assume that the prime minister will come back

0:46 to India on 1st September itself. However, it is certain that the remaining nine permanent members of the SEO and many uh countries who have observer status will stay back for this parade along with their military delegations. Now, I just want to point to three things which come out from Miss's media interaction yesterday. The first one is when asked Misri said that India's focus at the SEO summit will be on terrorism. Obviously he was referring to terrorism emanating from Pakistan. What needs to be understood is that Shanghai 5 which was formed in 1996

1:33 and comprising of Russia, China and three central Asian republics. Its focus was on three evils. How to eradicate three evils of terrorism, extremism and separatism. And the same Shanghai 5 in 2001, it became the SEO. And by the time India and Pakistan joined the SEO as permanent members in 2017, SEO had a vision of its own. And at the heart of the SEO vision is the concept of indivisible security. Something which all the global south nations understood. Now if India also understood the ethos of the global

2:20 south, it was in sync with that. It would have understood that terrorism can be taken care of by this concept of indivisible security. Let me explain how. Now you see indiv indivisible security is an entirely different concept from the traditional thinking of security as a zero sum game that for my security your security has to be compromised. Indivisible security is everybody's security. It's about cooperative security. It's about relative security not absolute security. It is about having all the stakeholders involved inside the tent. That is what it is. And this vision has been there for a long

3:07 time. Not only that, President Xi Ping specifically initiated this once again emphasized this in his concept of global security initiative which he gave in 2023. and President Putin of Russia. He emphasized the same concept of indivisible security when he spoke about Eurasian security architecture in 2024. Now let me explain this as to how this relates to our subcontinent between India, Pakistan and China because after all it is here that India has two military lines. If India was to accept or agree to the

3:54 concept of indivisible security with Pakistan and China, then what would happen is that the gray zone operations which is the peaceime activity which is a very big menace on the two military lines that would end on line of control as well as line of actual control with China. As far as line of control with Pakistan is concerned, if India accepts the indivisible security concept, then the proxy war or what Misri is talking about terrorism from across the border, it will end. Not only that, the counterterror operations that the Indian military has been doing rather army has been doing for decade and what it calls

4:42 no war no peace operations they will also end. As far as the line of actual control is concerned, there Indian army will be able to cut its manpower if the gray zone operations end and the need for Agni's induction would no longer be there. So all these benefits are there. Not only this, if India accepts this concept, then there will be peace and peace is a critical necessary for building deterrence. But you see what this requires is that India start with Pakistan sincere talks on the Kashmir issue and normalize relations with China. They don't have to

5:28 be done suddenly in one day. They have to be done progressively slowly but with sincerity. Something that India does not want to do. And hence misery talking about terrorism sorry is meaningless. My second sorry my second observation is that since quite some time the Russians surely privately and in publicly also they've been talking about the revival of RIC which is Russia, India, China. Now this is that concept the coming together of three nations which was first thought about inuniated by the Russian foreign minister Primikov in the 1990s and this is at the foundation of

6:15 what is today bricks. What the Russians have been saying is or asking India is that if this is revived when you look at ra today comprises of two great powers in a multipolar world and one nation which is the most population populous nation on earth if they all come together that means the global south which is 80% of the world population that can stabilize in turn it will stabilize the global geopolitics so much can be accomplished. Now the irony of the whole thing is that India does not want to revive the RAI otherwise Misri would have mentioned this but it has taken advantage of this

7:01 RI umbrella at least two times during Prime Minister Modi's tenure. The first time India took advantage of RAIC was after the Dclam crisis of 2017 when India requested for a summit between Modi and she at Wuhan in 2018 and within week of that backto back India also requested for a summit meeting between Modi and Putin as Sochi. So with the whole idea was that Putin India wanted Putin to be the guaranter of peace in the meeting between Modi and she after the Dclam crisis. So India used the RAIC concept. It again used

7:49 after the Galwan killings of 2020 2020 June when in September 10th of September 2020 the joint statement was signed by India and China by J Shankar and Wongi in Moscow in the presence of Sergi Lavrov but India does not want to have the RAIC revival. It does not want the three leaders Modi, she and Putin to sit together in China because that will make that will mean that India is with a witness. Putin as a witness is accepting cooperation with China. A cooperation means normalizing ties with China. Something that India does not want to

8:34 do. That's my second point. And the third point is that with just 4 days left, Misri said that we are still finalizing the bilateral age or bilateral interactions of the prime minister in China. Now you see with four days left I'm not worried about the other countries when we look at the three important players there. I'm excluding Iran for the time being. As far as President Putin is concerned, we know very well that he is coming to India uh by the end of this year and as far as Prime Minister Sharif is concerned. Obviously Modi would not want to meet him. But what about President Xi? I mean President Xi is also the host there and still the agenda

9:22 of what needs to be done or what the two leaders will discuss bilaterally has still not been finalized. So the point I want to make is that India is not in sync with the global south ethos. It still remains with the global north and America. So I do not expect anything substantive to come out of as far as India is concerned from the SEO summit uh besides uh mere diplomatic innities. Thank you so much.