0:00 Hey team, a very good morning. EuroUSD pushed up higher yesterday following the overall daily and 1hour order flow. Now, are we ready to push down lower again or are we going to push up higher into a new higher high here on the daily chart? Now, Euro USD as of this moment is currently situated within a daily area of demand and is following the overall daily fractal structure further in towards the upside. Obviously, for a short period of time after tapping into a daily area of supply which we headed to the left, the market provided us with a bearish change of character which was the initial indication that the market was ready to push down lower. As we can see, the market followed the daily order flow down lower, but then shifted with this daily change of character in towards the upside. The market then grabbed liquidity, filled up a previous
0:45 and old area of demand and then pushed up higher. Now as of now the market is aggressively following structure where we have the current fractal low being respected the current fractal high being expected to break ultimately if we would consider the daily fractal structure as the only thing that is valid. Now looking here we can see first of all that we have a daily imbalance and that this is currently pushing the market up higher. Now going into the 1 hour time frame pretty much what we discussed in yesterday's video played out beautifully where we had this previous area of demand. Now in my opinion again not a very strong area of demand but it is demand that played out. We had an initial tap into that demand zone, but then what happened? We consolidated. We liquidated the range low and from there we reversed up higher. Now remember in yesterday's video I mentioned you would want to wait for a double high break. The double high break happened and then from that moment onwards on the lower
1:31 time frame being for example the 15minut you could look to get into long positions um over here which played out to some extent not a lot of volume to be very honest. around 4:30 the market let's say slowed down and has now been consolidating mainly due to the fact that today we have interest rate decisions in the eur or by the European central bank now it is expected that there is going to be a rate cut so what does it mean when a central bank cuts interest rates it means that overall the economy is likely presumed to be slow now this is mainly because of the tariff situation uh globally that the European Union is seeing that inflation is dropping so when inflation is dropping and this is the main responsibility of the central bank to manage inflation but when inflation is dropping below 2% then
2:18 what does the ECB do the ECB increases interest rates so the IR goes up and then when the IR goes up or excuse me the interest rates are cut so the IR goes down and then what does it mean when interest rates go down it means that an investor or let's say a country a government who invests in Europe receives a lower return on their capital and therefore it is likely that they are going to be selling their euros. So obviously these kind of like rate cuts are widely anticipated and widely expected by the market. It's not like it's new news that today suddenly there's going to be a rate cut. But this could obviously yeah be the start of something for the euro to push it potentially down lower. So I'll be keeping my eyes open because obviously still at this point in time we have grabbed liquidity above this overall
3:05 last high. So, I just want to monitor the market, see how it reacts to this interest rate decision. At the moment, the 4hour is bearish fractal-wise with this being your supplies that is in control. So, I'm looking to see if this is now ready to push the market down lower or not. Um, and as you know, especially if you look at the lower time frame, we still have a lot of ascending lows here. We have ascending lows open here and we have ascending lows open over here. So, there's still so much liquidity open on Euro USD, but it will all be dependent on how the market reacts. for now. Obviously, we can still see that the market is reacting positively based on what the daily time frame is showing us with the daily imbalance here being in control. So, now let's just keep an eye on the 1 hour and once the 1 hour or the 4 hour, excuse me, breaks the current fractal high again, the 1 hour will do the same. And
3:52 then this demand zone over here will push the market up higher and then you could look for more longs in my opinion. But until then, mainly focus again on another deeper pullback in towards the downside to take out the ascending lows. So that's for euro USD going into the dollar. Let's have a look at the dollar index. We can see that the dollar index is pushing down lower again from where? From this imbalance candle over here, this buy before the sell. Overall, the dollar reacted in towards the downside again from that imbalance candle which I mentioned in yesterday's video. This is what pushed the market down lower. Obviously, I mentioned that that is what needed to be broken for Euro USD to keep pushing. Well, you can see here very very clearly that once we came in towards that area of daily supply, the
4:40 market pushed up, pushed down, pushed up and then boom, broke back in towards the downside by breaking the fractal lower here. Now, obviously, if you want to see those dollar longs play out again, we would need to break the current fractal high again, and we really would need to break that daily area of supply. Now, if that daily area of supply is then broken, then for me, there will be a lot more confirmation to take out these descending highs again because then there's not going to be any fresh areas of supply to yeah suppress the market or push down lower. But for now, this supply zone is in control. So, we need to break that would we want to see those dollar longs. Otherwise, until then, just follow the overall immediate order flow in towards the downside. Now, moving on into AUDUSD, we can see that AUDUSD pushed up higher as expected following the overall daily order flow. Again, we can very clearly see that
5:25 previously this sub for the buy was in control. Now, yesterday this sub for the buy was in control and as we mentioned, we were expecting those higher prices back up higher in towards the X liquidity which is playing out beautifully for now. So, I'm just looking to continue that overall yeah play uh in towards the highs. As we can see yesterday, I mentioned as well that we were consolidating. So, we need to break out of that consolidation. And as we'll be able to see here on the 15-minute time frame, this is where the market started to break out. And then with momentum, it kept pushing up higher, which was in line with the daily fractal structure, but also with the overall 4hour market structure as well. So looking for this to continue up higher in towards that X over here, which is kind of like the beginning point of all of those descending highs.
6:10 Now moving on into GBPUSD. GBPUSD this morning started to sell off. Now it is pushing up higher again. Overall what we can see here on GU is that demand for now is in control. Yesterday we saw somewhat of further downside but no real conviction plays. Um as you know we had this area of supply over here. So I was interested to see if we could see another potential short but we never really broke market structure in towards the downside again. As you can see we remained fractal bullish pushing the market up higher. And for now again the market retraced in towards this demand zone and from there pushed up higher once again. So GPUd best to stay out maybe wait for these descending highs to get taken out before looking for any potential yet downside
6:57 again. I must say we are building up beautiful amounts of liquidity underneath this trend line. Uh but for now I would definitely say it's just slightly too early to short this. I would definitely wait for either the current fractal low to break clear momentum retracement. Then you look for the short or you look for the short once the high is taken and then you'll have a potential shorting opportunity. But for now, bulls are still in control. So you could still keep an eye on the 50-minute longs. Obviously looking at the daily time frame. Obviously there's also no sign of a slowdown just yet. I was favoring a potential move down lower towards that 0.5 fib, but for now the bulls remain in control. So, if you do want to look for shorts, taking out all of those ascending lows, we would need to wait for the current fractal low to break, which is also the 4hour fractal low. And that to me could signal that we are ready to push down lower once again
7:43 together with that break of the trend line. Otherwise, for now, the imbalance here just remains in control and will push the market up higher. Going into NDUSD, we can see that NDUSD is also pushing up higher in line with what with the daily order flow. Again, we can see daily demand remains in control. Daily fractal remains in control and again pushing the market up higher in line with our 4hour and our daily expectation. So looking for this to continue up higher back up into where into the dotted line where we have the X. So you can then again keep an eye on the lower time frame for those potential long setups. Um nothing really too clear on the 1 hour but on the 15 minute you have beautiful areas of accumulation where you can just simply buy on the high breaks or wait for a retest of demand. For now, the market is starting to expand and consolidates a little bit
8:30 again. So, it's not ideal to be in the market. You kind of wanted to get in on the overall breakout in towards the upside. But for myself, longs still makes sense overall longer term. Um, on yeah, based on this daily fractal structure. So, as long as the daily fractal structure holds with the current fractal low, the 4hour structure holds with current fractal low. Longs are the only thing that makes sense. Now, going into dollar Swiss dollar yen and gold. Dollar Swiss has been pushing up this morning with a weak Swiss Frank. Overall, what I'm looking for still is further upside. This is more a swing position. So, yeah, stop crying if it doesn't really move that fast for you. What you should be looking at is the overall bigger swing with stops definitely somewhere beneath the lows, targeting again a bigger push up as it
9:16 still has so much room to gain after liquidating underneath this overall area of consolidation. So again, this is over here the range high and this over here is the range low. And obviously what we're now seeing is kind of like the fake out underneath the range low. So we have the accumulation, we have the m manipulation and now we're looking for the distribution back into the highs. But for this we just need that strong dollar to return. So obviously waiting for that already in buys myself. Dollar yen. We're seeing pretty much the same slow slow price action. It's also just really waiting. So, not too much to be said on this. Uh, personally, um, not a big big fan of it, but overall looking for some further upside towards the end
10:01 of the week. And then we have gold. Gold overall still focused only on buy positions. Yesterday, what happened here on the 4hour chart is that first of all, let me just quickly check the daily. So, daily time frame still obviously bullish. Uh what we have here now is this as your overall sub for the buy. Now refine that. Then this is kind of like your refined area of demand. Does the market always need to retrace that deep? No, it does not because it is gold and it can just move up impulsively without yeah providing us with a deeper retracement. So how do we know that the potential retracement is over? Well, we look at the lower time frame and on the 1 hour time frame, what you can see here is that this was a liquidity low. We grabbed the liquidity low and straight away, boom, Vshape reversal to me indicating a lot of buyers coming into
10:47 the market. So, at that point in time, I'm only interested in longs. Again, big phase of accumulation though, but now we're retracing beautifully back down intowards this 1 hour demand zone. We grab liquidity underneath the range. So, now you want to be looking for long positions again. Um, so let's see what happens. Maybe a reaction to this demand zone and then on the next kind of like high break, take out the descending highs. Liquidity is resting above here. So, uh, yeah, that's pretty much what I'm looking for on gold still. If it does push down lower, then again, I'll just be looking for more buys on gold. So, yeah, that's what I have for gold and uh looking for those buys. So, thank you so much for tuning in. Wish all a fantastic trading day at 2:30 Central Eastern time. We're going live here on YouTube. See you there.
