India Rejects Trump's Bid to Crack Open Agriculture Market | Vantage with Palki Sharma | N18G

0:05 Hello namaskar this is first post and you're watching Vantage with me Pali Sharma [Music] in 1930. A tariff sparked the Great Depression. In 2025, Donald Trump is doing one better. The US president has followed through on his threats and slabbed sweeping tariffs, some as high as 50% on US trade partners and countries across the globe. From Brazil to Syria and India, no one's been spared. But what is driving this? Not

0:51 economics, not fairness, just Trump's trademark mix of politics and pressure. He's calling it a trade reset, but for many countries, it's a trade war. And for American households, it's an invisible tax. Tonight, we'll break it down. Who's been the hardest hit, who has escaped the worst, and who is picking up the bill for Trump's tariff blitz. They're also tracking what this means for India US ties. Trump is now openly confronting New Delhi on trade. Talks have stalled, but is there still a way forward? Here in India, the tariffs have sparked a political storm. Globally, they threatened to slow down growth and shake up alliances. And through it all, Trump wants credit for the chaos, for the disruption, and for calling the shots. All that and more coming up, the headlines. First,

1:38 Pakistan issues a fresh call for Afghans living in the southwest to leave the country, triggering thousands to rush to the border. Over the last several decades, millions of Afghans have poured into Pakistan. A deportation drive first launched in 2023. Since then, more than a million Afghans have left Pakistan. A series of Israeli air strikes kill at least four people in Lebanon. The Israeli military claims the attacks targeted Hisbullah. The strikes come despite the ceasefire last November. The truths ended two months of allout war between Israel and Hisbullah. But the Netanyahu government has refused to withdraw all its troops from Lebanon. Kiev in mourning after one of the deadliest Russian attacks on the Ukrainian capital. More than 30 people have been killed in the aerial assault. In July, Russia launched more drones at Ukraine than in any other month since

2:24 the war began in 2022. Moscow has been intensifying its attacks as peace talks remain stalled. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda hold talks in the US. It's their first one since signing a peace deal in June, which aims to end decades of conflict in the mineral-rich eastern DRC. The region bordering Rwanda has been plagued by violence. The unrest has claimed thousands of lives. And South Korea's impeached former President Yunsuko resists questioning by lying down in his prison cell in his underwear. On Thursday, prosecutors obtained a fresh arrest warrant against Yun. They wanted to bring him in for questioning over allegations of election tampering, but were unable to do so.

3:10 [Music] In 1930, the US passed the Smooth Holy Tariff Act. It sparked a global trade war, further worsening the Great Depression. Nearly a century later, US President Donald Trump has done one better. A sweeping set of tariffs on half of the globe. Allies, rivals, and even territories with just penguins, no one has been spared. The rates go as high as 50%. There is no clear plan to end it and it is evident that many of these decisions are personal like the 25% tariff on India, 50% on Brazil and 19% on Pakistan. So there is no clear playbook and across the globe there is one question on everyone's mind. Who pays the price when trade becomes a one-man show. Let's look at the tariffs

3:57 first. Who is the worst affected? Asia is bearing the brunt of most of this. Here's a quick snapshot. Myanmar and Laos are the worst hit. They have been slabed with 40% tariff 40 for countries already struggling economically. This is brutal. Then you have tiny brun. It has been hit by 25% tariff. India too is on the same boat with 25% tariff. From jewelry to textiles every everyday items will be hit. Then there is Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Thailand. They have been slapped with 20% tariff. Now most of these countries rely heavily on the US for textile and electronics exports and Taiwan too faces a 20% tariff. So far the negotiations have achieved

4:44 some interim progress. The tax rate has been reduced from 32% to 20%. However, the 20% tariff rate was never Taiwan's target to begin with. We will continue negotiations and strive for a rate that's more favorable for Taiwan. Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines are slightly better off. They're facing 19% tariff. Of course, better is a relative term here, which brings us to Pakistan. Pakistan has also got 19% tariff. Why? Let's just call it economic flirtation, geoeconomic flirtation. Islamabad has been cozying up to Trump. They have even nominated the US president for a Nobel Peace Prize. His family has a crypto deal with Islamabad. So, Trump is going soft on them. Then you have Syria. Syria

5:31 now faces 41% tariffs. Remember, this is a country struggling to recover from a decadel long civil war, but Donald Trump clearly does not care. Next on the list is Switzerland. It has been hit by 39% tariff. Again, it's not clear why. Whether you're ravaged by a war or staying out of it, nothing guarantees safety from Trump's tariffs. Next on our list is Canada. Canada has been hit with 35% tariffs. Well, they have to pay a fair rate. That's all. It's very simple. Uh they have been charging very very high tariffs to our farmers, some over two 200%. And they've been treating our farmers very badly. They've been treating our country very badly for years.

6:16 Now, let's tell you about the countries which have been spared. And by spared, I mean less affected. There are two main categories here. One, the countries with the trade deals. The European Union negotiated itself down to 15%. Japan has also got only 15%, the United Kingdom 10%. Then there are the ones that are still negotiating, the likes of China. Beijing and Washington have had three rounds of talks in Geneva in May, in London in June, and earlier this week in Stockholm. The two sides have agreed to seek a 90-day extension of their truce, and that is set to expire on the 12th of August. So, China has not been hit by tariffs in this round, but a trade deal is yet to be secured. So, the dragon is not out of the woods. But here's something everyone's thinking. Is Donald

7:02 Trump serious this time, or is another delay on the cards? Honestly, it's hard to say. On one hand, Trump says he means business that these tariffs are set in stone until, of course, countries strike a deal. The new tariffs will come into effect on the 7th of August. But then again, chaos is a Trump trademark. He did announce sweeping tariffs in the month of April only to delay them by 90 days. So you never know what he'll do this time. Well, there's a lot of countries that I know have reached out. I believe it's upwards of 200 countries around the world have reached out to the trade and tariff team. Of course, as I said previously and the president said, we're going to prioritize our key trading partners, which we have done. Like I said, of the 18, twothirds of those we have cut these tailor made deals with. Which brings us to the question, who

7:50 pays the price? Think of a tariff as a tax on exports. Say India sends a shirt, a $100 shirt to the United States. Now, Trump has imposed a 25% tariff, so the shirt suddenly costs $125. Who pays the extra $25? Usually, it is the importer, but they won't absorb the hit. They will most likely pass it on to you, the American consumer. It's almost like an invisible tax added to your bill. And here's what studies suggest. US households will pay over $1,000 more every year, $1,000 annually, due to these new tariffs. So, Trump is taxing the world, but Americans are picking up the bill. Trump is rewriting the rules

8:36 of global trade, but the costs are clear. The winners are few, if you can even call them winners, and the losers are many, including the average American shopper. And for countries like India, the dilemma is deepening. There is no easy way out of this. So the tariffs are back, but they're not like the last time. The US president is being surgical this time. Yes, his tariffs are sweeping in nature, but there's a carefully crafted list of exemptions. And while Trump is talking tough on trade, he has quietly excluded goods worth billions of dollars from his tariffs. According to one report, more than a third of all US imports have been excluded. These were valued at over $1 trillion last year. And which goods are

9:22 these? Big tech is among them. You're talking about companies like Lenovo and Samsung. They have managed to avoid 7 billion in tariffs. And they aren't the only ones. Industries like oil and gas, Bitcoin mining firms, pharma companies, and medical device makers have all saved billions. What does this tell you? That Donald Trump is being more cautious this time. He is approaching this trade war with the mindset of a sniper. His tariffs are specific and targeted. The idea is to insulate the American consumer. Consider what he did with Brazil. Brazil faces a whopping 50% tariff, which is one of the highest highest rates. And while this headline 50% tariff helps Trump look tough, if you dig through the details, Brazil

10:09 has got dozens of exemptions, look at the industries that have been spared. Civil aircraft, energy, fertilizers, wood pulp, and precious metals. All of these have been left out. As Brazil's Treasury Secretary put it, we are not facing the worst case scenario. Is that true for India as well? The answer is yes. 25% is not a blanket tariff. Certain industries have been spared and topping this list is pharma. We told you about this yesterday. Pharma is a major export from India to the US. Last year, India exported pharma products worth nearly $9 billion to the United States and these were mostly generic drugs. They're all exempt from the new tariffs. Next, we have copper. India shipped

10:54 around 13,000 tons of copper to the United States in 2024. And while other countries now face a 50% tariff on copper, India's exports remain exempt. Then there's iron and aluminium. Both of these items are on the exemption list. Report also says reports also say that iPhones have been exempted for now. So there is some breathing room. Having said that, the 25% tariff will still cause pain at least in the short term. One agency has already cut India's GDP growth forecast from 6 and a.5% to 6.2%. That's a loss of 0.3% in projected growth. Brokerage firm Nura has also released an assessment. It says tariffs would hurt growth and India's GDP could

11:40 take a hit of 0.2%. And the impact will be felt not just on GDP numbers but also on factory flows and in price sheets. According to one expert, the tariffs will force buyers to renegotiate with Indian exporters. They'll discuss who will absorb the 25% tariff hike. Usually, it's the importers who pay the tariff. But the exporters also suffer. In fact, they may suffer the real cost. When goods become too expensive for end consumers, demand drops. That's when exporters are forced to slash prices just to stay in the game. And that hits their profit margins. In some cases, it may make certain exports unviable. So, while we may be talking only about trade here, Trump's tariffs may end up

12:26 being a test of India's resilience. This is no longer about economics. It's about politics and one man's impulses. So, India and Trump are at a stalemate. But is there a way out? Can both sides salvage a deal out of this chaos? Before this week, India was hopeful Indian officials were eyeing a comprehensive deal, something that went beyond tariffs. But new reports say the trade talks have stalled. An Indian trade team was supposed to visit the United States later this month. That is apparently not happening. Trump's negotiator was slated to visit New Delhi in mid August. That too is not happening. If true, this marks a complete breakdown in talks and this is on Trump. Unlike other countries, India was seeking a deal. New

13:11 Delhi ruled out any retaliation. Yet look, look at what Trump did. He called our trade barriers obnoxious. He called our economy dead and he slapped 25% tariffs on Indian goods. Clearly, this is a bad faith negotiation. Of course, American officials won't admit this. Trump's Treasury Secretary is blaming the Indian side. Let me quote from what he said. India came to the table early. There have been slow rolling things. So I think that the president the whole trade team has been frustrated with them. He also spoke about India's trade with Russia. He said India had had not been a great global actor. Now imagine the audacity. The US is sponsoring starvation in Gaza. They have carried

14:00 out almost 530 air strikes in 6 months. Yet India is the bad actor. We heard from the Indian commerce minister yesterday. He did not threaten retaliation but he promised to protect national interest. So tonight let's take a closer look at these talks. Where is India willing to make concessions and what are India's red lines? Let's look at the concessions first. India has already cut tariffs on some US exports like whiskey and motorbikes. The whiskey tariff was cut from 150% to 100%. Motorbike tariff was cut from 50% to 30%. But these moves were aimed at placate. Both these moves were aimed at placating Donald Trump. Another concession is on defense. India has upped its military purchases from the US. In fact, this was happening way before Trump. Okay.

14:46 India has bought US weapons worth $20 billion since 2008. Recent deals include jet engines and killer drones. A third concession is on energy. Trump wants India to buy more American gas. Again, India has obliged. The plan is to import 10% of our cooking gas from the United States. Overall, India's energy imports from the US will rise by 10 billion. Broadly speaking, these are India's three concessions. Tariff cuts on certain US goods, more defense purchases, and more energy purchases, which brings us to the red lines. The biggest one is agriculture. Trump wants access to India's agriculture market. He wants to sell soybean and dairy, but this has been a no nogo zone. And I'll give you two reasons why.

15:34 Number one, almost half of all Indians work in agriculture. We are self-sufficient in food, but our productivity is not as high as the West. They have better technology and practices. Therefore, their farm products will be cheaper. So imagine if we import farm goods from the US. What will happen? They will eat into India's market. Which is why any such concession is political suicide. Farmers are a very powerful voting block in India. They could punish the ruling party in upcoming state elections. That is why it's a red line for India. Reason number two, farm goods are a culturally sensitive issue. In the US, cow feed is very different. It is derived from multiple animal- based items like pig blood, chicken poop, and cat meat. But in India, milk is seen as

16:22 a sacred symbol. Which is why New Delhi is opposed to dairy imports. So agriculture is the first red line for India. The second one is fighter jets. India has reportedly told Donald Trump that we will not buy F-35 jets. Trump was keen to sell this plane to India. But New Delhi has concerns. For starters, we don't have a lot of American aerial platform. So integrating the F-35 will be tough for us. Secondly, it likely comes with conditions. The US has an unsaid rule. If you buy Russian air defenses, you will not get the F-35. So India and India of course does have Russian air defenses. We bought the S400 missiles from Russia. Chances are Washington wants India to abandon those

17:07 systems. Only then will they sell the F-35s. And reports say India has declined this offer. As things stand, there is a vast gulf between India and the United States. Trump wants the Japan template for India. No tariffs on US imports and access to the farm market. But India wants a free trade deal template, lower tariffs on Indian exports and protection for Indian farmers. That's what New Delhi wants. Now these two positions are irreconcilable. A mature and seasoned leader would understand the context behind India's red lines. But Trump is not that leader. He lacks the temperament and the knowledge. The only way to way a deal can be struck is if someone makes a

17:52 concession, a very significant concession. We'll have to wait and see who that will be. You can be Superman, but Trump being Trump will call you a bird. You can be the fastest growing major economy in the world, but the US president will call you a dead economy. So what do you do next? You don't take the bait. You remain composed and you try to safeguard your interests and that's exactly what India is doing. But there are some who are echoing Trump's delusions like the leader of opposition Rahul Gandhi. He says that Trump stated a fact that India is indeed a dead economy and his comment has backfired. He's being fact checked left, right and

18:38 center quite literally. Our next report tells you why Trump's tirade has fueled a political firestorm in India and how leaders are reacting. I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together for all I care. US President Donald Trump has hit India with 25% tariffs and called the fastest growing major economy in the world a dead economy. With this, a political firestorm has come alive in India. While most leaders stand united against Trump's delusions, one leader has been brazen in his endorsement of the US president. That's Rahul Gandhi, the leader of opposition in the Lok Sabha or the lower house of

19:25 parliament. He has taken Trump's terade and turned it into a political opportunity. He's right. I mean who who everybody knows this except the prime minister and uh the finance minister everybody knows that the Indian economy is a dead economy. Uh I'm glad that uh President Trump has stated a fact. If this wasn't enough, Gandhi later took to social media and doubled down in capital letters no less. But his remarks have backfired. Allies and senior members of his own Congress party have taken an opposite stand including Shashi Tarur. But if America is completely unreasonable in their demands, we will have to go elsewhere. I mean that is the

20:11 strength of India. No, we are not totally export dependent economy like say China is. We have a good strong domestic market. Also, Congress member of parliament in the Rajya Sabha or the upper house Rajiv Shukla has also made strong contradictions. He has called Trump delusional. Several members of the ruling Bharaty Ajanata party have slammed Gandhi for echoing Trump's jive including Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiran Gu.

20:56 Rahul Gandhi opposition party. Rahul Gandhi may have undermined India in order to take a swing at the ruling party but the country remains resilient. [Music] Speaking in parliament yesterday, Commerce and Industries Minister Push

21:41 Goyel called India an economic bright spot. He asserted that as New Delhi assesses the impact of tariffs, the government will ensure the protection of India's farmers, workers and entrepreneurs. We will take all necessary steps to secure and advance our national interest. The government is confident that we will continue our fastpaced journey of inclusive growth and sustainable development towards the goal of Vix Bat 2047. [Applause]

22:28 As India remains poised to become the world's third largest economy, New Delhi is taking steps to safeguard the country's interests. While the job of the opposition is to question the government, to cast doubt over India's standing on the global stage does not serve the country. Leverage is having something the other guy wants. Unfortunately, that is not always the case, which is why leverage often requires imagination and salesmanship. These are Donald Trump's own words. They're from his book, The Art of the Deal. It's no secret that Trump loves leverage. He looks for it everywhere,

23:14 and he uses it whenever he can. And that's exactly what he's doing right now. Trump wants leverage over Vladimir Putin. to get it. He's targeting Russian oil and by extension India. This week, Trump issued an ultimatum to Moscow. He said Russia has 10 to 12 days to cut a deal or face secondary tariffs. Now, this is a sharp turn from where his administration began. Early on, Trump was quoting Putin. He blamed Ukraine for the war and he painted Zilinski as the villain. He even urged G7 nations to readmit Russia, to go back to the G8. It was an open hand to win Putin over, but that strategy has failed. Russia has refused to end the war on Trump's terms.

23:59 The sweet talk did not work. So now Donald Trump is picking up the stick. He's going after Russian oil, specifically the countries that buy Russian oil. He's targeting them. Here's how secondary sanctions work. The US would slap 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. And who are the buyers? India and China are the biggest buyers. So once the sanctions kick in, they would create a ripple across global supply chains. In the month of June alone, Russia exported more than 4 million barrels of crude per day. That's about 4.5% of of the global demand. It came from Russia. Moscow also sends out another 2 and a half million barrels per day of refined products. These are byproducts born out

24:48 of treating and processing raw crude. If Trump goes ahead, the impact won't just hit Moscow. It could rock energy markets across the world. In fact, the impact is already showing. Indian state refiners have hit pause on Russian oil. They're not buying it anymore. Their purchases of Russian oil have dropped to zero. Four of India's biggest state refiners have not placed new orders and this includes Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum and Mangalore refinery and petrochemical. The refiners are preparing for the long term in case American sanctions put Russian oil out of the international market. Reports say the government has sent a message to state refiners. They have been asked to create backup plans and figure out more sources to buy crude.

25:35 If Russian supplies are cut off, they've been asked to map out alternate sources, available volumes, and pricing strategies. Broad approach. Last month we spoke with Hardep Singhpuri. He is India's oil minister. We asked him about this scenario. What if secondary sanctions hit supplies of Russian crude. Minister Puri was confident. He said India has diversified its sources. It now buys oil from 40 countries. So we are buying 30% of our crude from Russia and now the Americans

26:22 have uh have threatened secondary sanctions. Um what impact do you see on India's oil supply and what is our backup plan sir? Well, first and foremost, madam, I don't feel any pressure in my mind and I don't think my boss's mind is wired to feel any pressure and that's where I draw my strength from. During this period, India has diversified the sources of supply and we have gone I think from about 27 countries that we used to buy from to about 40 countries now. But more than that, if you go into should you buy from a source one or should you buy from a source two, we have been clear from the day go that we will buy from wherever we

27:10 have to. So New Delhi is not too bothered by Trump's threats. What about Russia? Trump's comments have struck a nerve in Moscow. Yesterday Trump had called Indian and Russian economies dead. Today Moscow has shot back. Russia's former president Dimmitri Medvidev has spoken. He's a close ally of President Putin. He's also a top national security official in Moscow. Medvev took inspiration from The Walking Dead. It's believed to be one of Trump's favorite shows. Medv said, and I quote, "As for the talk about dead economies, maybe he should remember how dangerous the so-called dead hand could be." He was referring to a cold war era Soviet system called the dead hand. It was built to launch nuclear missiles

27:56 automatically in case a nuclear strike was detected. So the message from Moscow is clear. If Trump goes after Russian oil, Russia is prepared to retaliate. Trump may think he's got leverage in this situation. But Russia's response suggests that that may not be the case. The dead hand message was not subtle. It was Russia's way of saying they are not blinking. And the way this is going, Trump's sanctions could spark a geopolitical standoff. If he overplays his hand, his own strategy could turn against him because when you push too hard, leverage sometimes turns into liability. You've spoken a lot about tariffs and deals, but about their real world

28:43 impact. We look at the precedent first, then we look at the projections. I told you about US protectionism in the 1930s. The goal was to protect American industries. But the result was the opposite. The protectionism worsened the great depression and it added to the global economic crisis. So the precedent is quite clear. Protectionism does not help which is why the world embarked on a free trade market crusade. The US actually led this crusade. They created the pillars of the current trade system. Yet Trump calls it unfair. And don't get me wrong, the free trade regime is not perfect. It certainly is not for developing and underdeveloped countries, but it's always better than protectionism. You don't have to be an economist to know that. You just need some common

29:30 sense. Now, look at the projections. Bloomberg is expecting a massive hit to the global economy, almost $2 trillion by 2027. That's how much the global economy stands to lose. Another projection has come from the OECD. That's the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. They are expecting 3.1% global GDP growth in 2025. That's 0.1% down from last year and 0.2% less than the initial projection. The World Trade Organization also has a projection. They expected global global GDP to grow by 2.8% 8% in 2025, but now they have cut it to 2.2%. So, the

30:16 general consensus is clear. Trump's tariffs will shrink the global economy. Now, I know 0.1 or 0.4% seems like a small number, but remember, we're talking about the global economy. It's more than a hundred trillion dollars in size. So, even minor changes have big impacts. Thousands of job losses, major supply chain disruptions, a plunging stock market, and inflationary pressures. And speaking of inflation, let's look at that next. American consumers will face the worst of it. In June, prices rose by 2.6% in the US. That was up from 2.4% in May. It was the steepest increase in 4 months. So clearly, American consumers have started to feel the pinch. But this is just the start. Economists expect the pain to get

31:02 worse. And I'll tell you why. Most American importers are bracing for these tariffs. So they have stockpiled a lot of goods. Basically, they imported extra before the tariffs kicked in. But that stockpile will not last forever. It will run out in the coming weeks. And when it does, American businesses will have to import again. And those imports will be a lot more expensive. So, expect a bumpy ride for the global economy. Now, let's look at specific companies and industries. The tariffs have shaken up Apple. Their business model was built on offshore production, but now there is uncertainty. Do they still make in China? Do they shift to India? Do they go to Vietnam? There is no clarity on what they should be doing. At the same time, the tariffs are biting. Apple says the tariffs cost

31:50 them $800 million in the last quarter. They're expecting a hit of a billion dollars in the next quarter. That's clearly bad news for Apple. Also, look at Auto Giants. Ford is bracing for a $2 billion hit in 2025. Stellantis is also reporting a 1.9 billion hit. In fact, Ford posted its first quarterly loss in two years. All thanks to Trump's tariffs. And this has a knock-on effect. When companies lose money, they cut back. They will shelf expansion plans. They will fire people. They will cut back on output. And all of this will drag the overall GDP. And it's not like Trump's team does not know this. His Treasury Secretary has worked in top hedge fund companies. His commerce secretary was a billionaire Wall Street CEO. These people know that

32:36 free trade works. They know how tariffs will impact the economy. They're just choosing not to see it. If America wants to plunge into a recession, go ahead. But don't drag us with you. If only Donald Trump was president in the 20th century, so much could have been avoided. the First World War, the Second World War, the nuclear arms race, the Cold War. Trump could have prevented all of it. After all, his surname is ceasefire. We know that all politicians are full of themselves. They can be arrogant and boastful. But Trump is one step ahead. He is shamelessly full of himself. And we saw an example of that yesterday. The White House openly demanded a Nobel

33:23 Peace Prize for Donald Trump. Listen to this. The president has now ended conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, Israel and Iran, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India and Pakistan, Serbia and Kosovo, and Egypt and Ethiopia. This means President Trump has brokered on average about one peace deal or ceasefire per month during his six months in office. It's well past time that President Trump was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. I think she missed a few there, like Tom and Jerry, Harry Potter and Voldemort, Batman and the Joker and Luke Skywalker and Darth Vader. If you're going to make fake claims, might as well go all in. It's been a hallmark of Donald Trump. He claims credit for everything. What's

34:08 worse, he wants global recognition for it. In other words, he wants the Nobel Peace Prize. Now, just to be clear, a lot of unworthy people have have received this prize. A lot of unworthy people have also been nominated for it, but none of them asked for it. I mean, this is not a reality TV contest. It's not like you can send an SMS to Norway nominating Donald Trump. You must let your actions speak. So, let's look at Trump's actions. We mentioned his bombing record earlier on the show. Trump has dropped 530 bombs in 6 months. To put that in context, his predecessor, Joe Biden, dropped 555 bombs over his whole presidency, four years.

34:55 Trump has dropped 530 in 6 months. Not very peaceful, is it? Let's also look at aid cuts. Trump has cut 80% of America's foreign aid. That's almost $60 billion of help. And we are talking about lifesaving help like vaccination campaigns, remote health centers, public health services and medicine distribution. What will be the impact of these cuts? Medical journal Lancet has done some research. They say the aid cuts could cause 14 million deaths by 2030. I'll repeat that for you. 14 million deaths due to Trump's aid cut. And a third of those are children. Does this sound like a peace laurate to you? Does this sound like a respectable statesman? The answer is no. Someone tell Trump

35:41 that typing in all caps is not diplomacy. Plus, it's out out of fashion. Jenz would be horrified by the all caps. This is the era of small case. But coming back to his credit fever. As a species, we should be more thankful to Trump. Thanks to his negotiations with God, the sun rises every day. Thanks to his mediation, ships can sail on the ocean. If not for him, gravity would not exist. Give us a break. Americans can vote for whoever they want to. Just don't expect the world to fall in line. I can think of a dozen people who deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump is certainly not one of them. And I'll tell you what disqualifies him. It's not just what he's doing now. It's

36:27 what he will do if he wins the prize. I can guarantee that Trump will sell a Nobel experience at Mara Lago. You can come click pictures with a prize and go just $500. Chances are he will also sell Nobel themed belt buckles and baseball cards. Again, just $100 each. But jokes aside, there are too many reasons to disqualify Trump. You've got casual sexism. You've got sexual assault allegations. You've got casual racism. You've got Islamophobia. And you've got actual wararmongering. Take your pick. There are two kinds of leaders in this world. One who leave the world a better place. The other who leave it worse than they found it. And Trump is clearly in category two. We suggest he take up a new obsession

37:13 and leave us alone. In fact, I've got an idea. There is a country in Africa with vast reserves of rare earth elements. It's called Wakanda. If US officials are listening, get Trump on the job. urge him to sign a deal with them if anyone can. It's Donald diplomacy Trump. In 1930, 25% of Americans worked in agriculture. Today, it's under 2%. That's not a glitch. That's what technology does. It does not just assist, it redefineses. Back then, it was done by tractors. Today, it's with Chad GPT. And now it's getting personal. This week, Microsoft released a fascinating yet slightly terrifying report. It analyzed over 200,000 AI

37:59 chats from Bing Copilot. Why? To answer that one question that we are all afraid of. Will artificial intelligence replace us? Whose jobs are most at risk? And more importantly, who is safe? Let's look at the report first. Microsoft's researchers wanted to know one thing. How closely do real life jobs match the things AI already does well? for example, writing, explaining, researching, summarizing. So they created an AI applicability score. Basically, a way of asking, can a chatbot do this job instead of you? So here are the jobs facing the biggest risk. Top on the list is translators and interpreters. If you have ever used Google Translate or Dolingo, you already know AI is crushing it in languages,

38:47 whether that is real time, text, or even spoken. On number two are historians, which should not be surprising either. AI excels at information retrieval. Ask it about the Cold War and it can quote and cross reference, even build whole timelines in seconds. Third on the list, writers and authors, and that's bad news for the world. AI can write blog posts, ad copy, and poems. Yes, human nuance is unique. It cannot be replaced, but not all writing gigs need it. On number four is customer service. And you already know that. I'm sure you've talked to an AI chatbot by now. So you know that it can solve your problems. Fifth, our sales representatives. After all, AI does not AI does not take lunch

39:32 breaks. It does not forget follow-ups. And that makes it a dream employee, I guess. Sixth, our proof readers and editors. It's like Grammarly. Met chat. GPT. AI can catch typos, suggest other words, and fix grammar. Seventh on the list, and this one truly hits home, are news analysts, reporters, and journalists. It's a strange feeling reporting on this on the fact that AI could tell you the same story one day. But if journalism is about gathering facts, summarizing events, and presenting clearly, well, so is AI, at least according to this report, even though AI is prone to hallucinations as we all know. Eighth on the list are technical writers and instruction manual creators. Ninth,

40:18 market research analysts. AI can crunch numbers and spot patterns while you're still opening that Excel sheet. And on number 10, we have data scientists, which is the irony here. The ones building AI might be replaced by it. So, are we all replaceable? Thankfully, not all. AI is not replacing people. It's replacing tasks, but some jobs are still safe, like health care professionals, and people who do physical labor. I'm talking about housekeepers, helpers, people who do repairs, massage therapists, doctors, and surgeons. And why are these jobs safe? Because they involve physical movement and the human touch. There are things current AI, even robots, struggle with. So, manual labor is mostly safe. White

41:04 collar jobs are in the line of fire. Should we be worried? Well, yes and no. I say yes because complacency is dangerous. AI is moving fast. It will reshape entire industries. And no because we have adop adapted before and we will do it again. And that's the only way ahead. Adapt. Learn what AI cannot do. Learn to work with AI and focus on human skills, communication, empathy, decision-m. The robots are not coming for our jobs. They're already here. And the only way to beat them is to stop competing with them. The future does not belong to those who fear AI. It belongs to those who work with it. You can bake it, boil it, smash it, hash it, roast it, or fry it. The potato is

41:52 versatile and vastly loved. It was first domesticated about 10,000 years ago, and today it is one of the most important crops in the world. More than 350 million tons of potatoes are produced every year. Yet, we have known so little about the mighty potato. We did not know how it originated. That is until now. Now, a new study is out. Scientists say potatoes came from tomatoes. You heard that right. Potatoes evolved from tomatoes more than 9 million years ago. How is that even possible? Our next report tells you. The spudacular potato is the starch of cuisines everywhere, pardon the pun, but more than 350 million tons of it are produced globally every year.

42:38 Then it is baked, boiled, mashed, smashed, hashed, fried, and eaten by more than a billion people the world over. Safe to say, everybody wants a bite of the potato. But where did it come from? Apparently from a tomato. Potatoes were first domesticated about 10,000 years ago in the Andes Mountains. Soon they traveled across the world and became wildly popular, but their origins remained obscure. Plants don't preserve well. The fossil records that existed weren't good enough. And nobody could really say where the modern-day potato came from, but scientists can finally answer this. A new study is out. It says that potato is the child of tomato. And there is another parent in the mix, a tuberus, which is a group of potato-like plants

43:24 from South America. Apparently, potatoes were born 9 million years ago through the combining of genetic material from a tuberus and wild tomato plants. But this is quite strange to say the least. Scientists have known a few things for a while now. First, that modern potato plants closely resemble a tuberus. But there is a key difference. Tubers. These are thickened underground parts of a stem. Think of them as nutrient storage organs of plants. A tuberusome plants do not have tubers. While the potatoes we consume are tubers. The second bit that scientists have known is this. Potatoes are genetically related to tomatoes, but they look nothing alike. So why is it that potatoes resemble one plant but share

44:09 their genes with another? To solve this mystery, scientists analyzed several lineages of potatoes, and they found a mixed ancestry. They realized that potatoes are hybrids of a tuberus and tomato. Individually, neither of the potatoes parents could form the underground nutrient storage organs. But together, they gave birth to the potato plant's distinctive feature, the tuber, which is edible. And this is a radical feat. If you look at the annals of evolutionary history, you will find many ill- fated and tur species pairings. Sure, different crops are often bred together. This can come with many benefits like stronger yield, but mixing genes and making new combinations is a risky gamble. Many plants and animals cannot reproduce outside their own

44:56 species, and when they do, their offsprings have to pay the price for it. The most common example of this is liger cubs, the offspring of lions and tigers. They suffer from major health problems like heart failure and the males are almost always infertile. So for decades now, biologists have seen hybridization of two entirely different species as a rarely successful force. But the potato didn't just survive it. It carved its own path, albeit underground, with tubers. It has revolutionized our understanding of evolution and given fries with ketchup a whole new meaning. India became a free nation on August 15th, 1947.

45:42 But what does freedom really mean? A flag, a constitution, a memory? Or does it mean the right to choose our own allies? to build billiondollar companies to launch rockets to run the world's biggest election. India's story is no longer just about breaking free. It's about breaking through. From diplomacy to defense, from cricket fields to Chandrean, from yoga to UPI, for the next 11 days, we will take you on a journey through the stories that define India at 78. A country that's still young, but already rewriting the rules of the modern world. This is the India story. [Music]

46:30 August 15, 1947. For Indians, this is a sacred date. After centuries of foreign rule, we were free. Free to make our own decisions. Free to make our own mistakes. Free to chart our own destiny. But for the outside world, this was a day of suspicion. Here was a country, a new country, a broken economy, a bruised people, and a partition geography. Would it be able to survive, let alone thrive? Decades later, I think we have a clear answer. And yes, it took time. We had to tweak our economic policy. We had to rethink our social justice platform. But in one area, we hit the ground running,

47:15 and that is diplomacy. On the world stage, India walked in with purpose and principles. Right after independence, we got a knock on our door. On the other side was the Cold War, the cutthroat ideological battle of the 20th century. The US-led capitalist block and the Sovietled communist block. Countries around the world were picking sides, but India's response, thanks for the invite, but we'll stay out of it. Thus was born the nonaligned movement. or NAM India's RSVP to the cold war. You can trace its roots to before independence. In March 1947, Javahar Lal Nehu hosted a conference in New Delhi, the Asian relations

48:00 conference. It was attended by 28 Asian countries. The idea was to foster unity within the continent. After becoming prime minister, NU continued this mission, but he added one more goal. Along with unity, he wanted neutrality. He wanted to keep Asia out of the cold war. In 1955, another conference was held to this end, the Bandong Conference in Indonesia. India played a key role in organizing this gathering. And this time, it wasn't just Asia. Countries from Africa attended as well 29 countries representing more than half of the global population. Such conferences led to the establishment of NAM. Of course, this policy had many critics. Some called it fence sitting, others called it

48:48 isolationist. But the Indian leadership was very clear in its mind. They wanted to be players, not pawns. This thinking dominated Indian diplomacy in the 1950s. But this thinking also had a problem. It was based on principles, not pragmatism. In the 1950s, India tried to become a peacemaker. We brokered talks during the Korean War. We advocated for communist China. We spoke out against the tripartite aggression on Egypt. All of this gave India the moral high ground. We were seen as the voice of justice. But like I said, pragmatism was missing. And the 1960s gave us a rude reality check. India's neighborhood policy

49:34 collapsed in this decade. Two of our neighbors attacked us. China in 1962 and Pakistan in 1965. All that neighborly cooperation came to not. Against China, we suffered a humiliating defeat. But against Pakistan, we prevailed. Those two wars had an impact on Indian diplomacy. We realized that principles earn you praise but not protection. And India was still reeling from the impact of colonization. Our economy had been de-industrialized. Our agriculture was in tatters. So naturally we were dependent on others. In the 1960s India used to import food. Every year we bought 10 to 11 million tons of wheat. We also depended on foreign aid.

50:20 The period from 1955 to 1965 is considered the peak. Millions of dollars flowed into India for health programs, for rural education, for family planning, a whole lot of things. And this foreign dependence challenged our non-alignment. The 1960s is proof of that. The Vietnam war was heating up in this decade. India was a staunch critic of that war. But we also needed US aid. So Washington leveraged it. They pressured New Delhi to scale down our criticism. So the 1960s was a decade of realization, a sort of reality check for Indian diplomacy. And we learned our lessons because in the 1970s, we injected a dose of realism. First came the green revolution. India

51:07 upped its agricultural productivity. By the end of the decade, we became self-sufficient in food grains. No more foreign dependence. In 1971, we also signed a treaty of friendship with the Soviet Union. It was arguably India's most significant diplomatic agreement of the last century and it was rooted in realism. That same year, the US was cozying up to China. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger secretly traveled to Beijing. At our eastern border, a crisis was brewing. Pakistan was cracking down on ethnic Bengales. Thousands were flooding into India as refugees. Neutrality and non-alignment would not have solved these crises. So, India chose realism. The treaty with Moscow did dilute our non-alignment. It gave us victory in 1971.

51:56 It helped India liberate Bangladesh and that whole decade was marked by Delhi Moscow warmth. We bought all kinds of weapons from them. Fighter jets, support ships, tanks and surfaceto-air missiles. Our trade nearly double. It was $460 million in 1973. It reached 830 million by 1975. This decade also saw the rise of space cooperation. And we launched our first satellite in 1975. It was launched aboard a Russian rocket by the Soviets. In many ways, the stars align for this partnership. The Soviets were fighting with China. China was warming up to America. America wanted nothing to do with India. So, India and the Soviets banded up. This worked in our favor in

52:42 the 1970s. It established India as the most powerful country in South Asia. In the next decade, the 1980s, we exercise that power. India played a key role in setting up SARKC. SARKC is the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. Think of it as ASEAN for South Asia. This group was set up in 1985. The idea was to foster unity in the region. Of course, India anchored this group. It confirmed our central role in South Asia. But something happened in the second half of that decade that challenged Indian centrality down south in Sri Lanka. The country was gripped by a bloody civil war. Sri Lankan Tamils were fighting for a separate country. India did have a stake in this fight. We had

53:28 millions of ethnic Tamils in the south. Many of them sympathized with their peers in Sri Lanka. So New Delhi decided to intervene. In 1987 the Indo-Sriankan Accord was signed. Its main goal was to end the civil war and to this end India deployed soldiers to the island. The IPKF, the Indian peacekeeping force was deployed. As the name suggests, our job was to keep the peace, not to engage either side. But the IPKF eventually got dragged into fighting Tamil separatists. We fought numerous bloody battles with them and eventually in 1990 we pulled out. It remains one of India's biggest diplomatic blunders. The 1980s was marked by another event

54:16 too, a rediscovery of non-alignment. After decades, our ties with China were improving. The cold war seemed to be ending. The Russians were stuck in Afghanistan. So, New Delhi began exploring its options. We began warming up to the Americans again. And this reset was led by then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. He visited the US in 1985. Then he visited China in 1988. Both trips set the stage for a new chapter in Indian diplomacy, a postcold war strategy for the 1990s. This decade was marked by uncharted territories both for our economy and our diplomacy. In some ways, they were linked. The reforms of 1991 tried to integrate India with the global economy. And for that, you had to talk to more countries. You needed more partnerships.

55:03 Plus, the Soviet Union was gone. India had lost a very powerful partner. So we needed alternatives. Enter the look east policy of 1992. Southeast Asia was growing rapidly at that time. Some of those countries were called Asian tigers. That's how fast they were growing. So in 1992, India became a dialogue partner of ASEAN. The same year we did something unthinkable. We opened an embassy in Tel Aviv. For decades, New Delhi had championed the Palestinian cause. Yes. Secret ties with Israel did exist, but in 1992 they came out in the open. And since then, there's been no looking back. Our ties with the US were also improving, but that reset was threatened by the nuclear test of 1998.

55:50 India exploded nuclear bombs in the state of Rajasthan. The US responded with sanctions. Months later, Pakistan exploded their own bombs, thus taking us to dangerous threat levels. As India entered the 2000s, the region was becoming a dangerous place. Two nuclear armed neighbors, no superpower to back us, and an economy under sanctions. But as always, we found a way. India's diplomacy in the 2000s was dominated by two goals. The first was a reset with America. I mean, we had no choice. The US was the unquestionable superpower. You had to play nice with them. The second goal was investing in multilateral forums. The US reset went along nicely. Most of the sanctions were lifted by 2001. After that, we chased a

56:36 nuclear deal with the Americans. Counterterrorism was a big factor in this reset. Both countries had suffered terror attacks the US had suffered on 9/11, India had suffered on 2611. The shared trauma made both countries realize something. They were fighting the same enemy. But even as the US ties deepened, India was not going allin. The legacy of non-alignment remained. Of course, Russia was a shadow of its former self. So we looked elsewhere at blocks. In 2006, the foreign ministers of Brazil, Russia, India, and China met in New York. This laid the foundation of bricks. Their first official summit came in 2009. So as we entered the 2010s, India was

57:22 wellplaced. Our economy was booming. Our diplomacy was diversified. Clearly, it was India's time to shine. The question was, would we seize the moment? And the last decade answered that question. We most definitely did. India signed strategic partnerships and agreements with some 14 countries with Israel and the UAE, with Japan and South Korea, with Usuzbekistan and Tajikistan. It tells you how wide the engagement has been. The last decade also sharpened the rivalry with China. Xi Jinping took over as president in 2013. He is relentlessly chasing Chinese supremacy and this puts China on a collision path with India. We saw that in 2017. Indian and Chinese soldiers faced off in Dclam. The

58:10 standoff lasted over 70 days which brings us to the ongoing decade, the 2020s. We are seeing India take its rightful place in the world. The vision is to become a Vishwa bandu meaning a friend to all. We have moved from non-alignment to multi-alignment. We are in the quad with America. We are also a founding member of bricks with China. We are invited to the G7 every year, yet we lead the global south. We are building port infrastructure in Iran, but we are also buying weapons from Israel. We acquire warships from Russia, yet we can visit Ukraine and call for peace. This has been the feature of India's new diplomacy. Be in every room, but only in your corner. And this is a big shift from the past. Earlier India's diplomacy was a

58:58 balancing act. Now we are the balance. And to achieve that, India has changed one crucial thing. We have reduced foreign dependence. That's the mistake that we made in the 20th century. We wanted an independent foreign policy, but our economy could not support it. Decades later, we are in a position to correct that. Today, we don't depend on foreign aid. On the contrary, we are a global donor. Since the year 2000, India has donated to 65 countries. The amount is more than 48 billion. During the pandemic, India became a pharmacy to the world. We sent vaccines to 160 countries. In the neighborhood, we are a first responder. Whether it's earthquakes or tsunamis or a pirate attack, India is the first to

59:43 respond. In 1947, the world looked at us with doubt. Today, they look at us with hope. India was non-aligned before it was cool. Now we are multi-line because it is wise. I'm sure more chapters will be written in India's diplomatic books. But the story so far has been riveting. [Music] Amid tariffs and wars, Trump is also renovating his home. I'm talking about the White House. He's adding a new ballroom to the residence. Not too expensive, just a casual $200 million. The ballroom will be able to seat 650 people. And guess what the color will be? Trump's favorite gold. Needless to

1:00:29 say, the announcement has not gone gone down too well, especially because of the timing. Trump himself says that there is a housing crisis in America. So, a $200 million renovation has stirred up some emotions. We are proud to announce that the construction of the new White House ballroom will begin. The White House is one of the most beautiful and historic buildings in the world. Yet, the White House is currently unable to host major functions, honoring world leaders in other countries without having to install a large and unsightly tent approximately 100 yards away from the main building's entrance. President Trump and other donors have generously committed to donating the funds necessary to build this approximately $200 million structure.

1:01:27 [Music] the women with their lovely evening gowns, all of their hair all done and they're a mess by the time they get and they've always wanted to have it. And I said, you know, in the first term, uh, I said, you know, if I get another shot at this, I'm going to do a ballroom. I was pretty busy in the first cuz I was running the country and I was also fighting for survival with all of the lunatics I had to beat. I think it'll be really beautiful. No. And now it's time for Vantage Shots. Images that tell the story. An amusement park ride snaps into half in Saudi Arabia, leaving 23 people injured. Water pours into the Grand Central Station as heavy rains lead to flooding in New York. and a newly discovered gigantic

1:02:12 stick stick bug becomes Australia's heaviest insect. Finally, we're taking you back in history. On this day in 1936, Adolf Hitler declared the Berlin Olympics open. Several nations threatened to boycott the event, but the Nazis promised to remove any anti-semitic signage. So, finally, 5,000 athletes from 51 countries took part in the games. We're leaving you on that note. Thanks for watching. Have a good weekend. the stadium in Berlin to watch the [Applause] huge entry for this long test of

1:02:58 endurance. Representatives of Finland gave an exhibition of stamina. Last minute speed 100 me sprint was generally assumed.

1:03:54 It's [Music]