Brief Summary
In this video, Stanley Aleksandrov discusses a late goals betting strategy, emphasising the importance of timing and game statistics. He shares insights from over 320 betting experiences, highlighting that a significant number of unsuccessful bets occurred after the 80th minute. The video covers various factors to consider when placing bets, including team performance, motivation, and tactical observations. Additionally, he provides resources for analysing game stats and encourages bettors to consider the odds carefully.
- The late goals strategy focuses on betting on goals scored after the 80th minute in live matches.
- Key factors for successful betting include understanding team patterns, game context, and using expected goals (xG) data.
The video opens with the introduction of the late goals betting strategy, which is based on past experiences where bets on under 2.5 goals often failed due to late-game scoring. Stanley emphasises that the strategies require skill, hard work, and consistency for profitability. He explains that the aim is to bet on the likelihood of goals being scored in the final moments of a match, especially after the 80th minute.
Stanley discusses the importance of market liquidity in betting, especially in high-profile matches like those in the Premier League. He points out that during these games, the bookmakers often offer better odds on late goals in comparison to before the match, highlighting significant margins. He advises that bettors should be aware of the odds set by bookmakers before placing their bets.
A crucial part of the strategy involves selecting the right teams—focusing on those that frequently concede goals late in the game rather than just those that score often. Stanley advises examining both home and away statistics for each team's goal-scoring patterns after the 80th minute while also considering specific match scenarios.
Watching the match live is vital for making informed betting decisions. Bettors should observe substitutions and dynamics affecting team performance, whether defensive or offensive alterations are made by coaches that could influence the scoring probabilities. Also, understanding team motivations regarding match outcomes significantly impacts late-game strategies.
Stanley highlights the importance of analysing expected goals (xG) to gauge scoring probabilities more accurately over traditional stats. He encourages deeper analysis, noting that the way teams typically attack provides insights into when goals are likely to occur, especially if similar prior attempts have been made throughout the match.
In the closing section, Stanley shares practical resources for bettors, such as soccerstats.com for match statistics, FY stats.org for averages and percentages, and other analytical sites. He reinforces the idea of maintaining consistent bet sizes and focusing on higher odds (at least 2.20) to ensure profitability over time, highlighting the strategic nature behind his betting recommendations.
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Transcript
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0:00 I have often bet under 2.5 goals bet on sporting events and at one point I noticed that a serious part of the times when this bet goes wrong is at the end of the games then I decided to do some research and it turns out that out of over 320 bets over 61% of the times my bet runs away because of the goals after the 17th minute this led me to dig around and find some very interesting patterns in goals at the end of the games which I will tell you about today the late goals strategy has actually been used for quite a long time and by various of people who have implemented it successfully what is this strategy let me first clarify that there is no easy way to make money from betting it takes some skills in this end you certainly need hard work and consistency
0:46 to succeed the tactics I about to talk about now are no exceptions so the main idea is to bet goals in the end of the games we play Only Live bets and this should at most be a bet to have a go after the 80th minute and the basis of this relatively easy strategy is to follow a few basic rules for the more highly liquid bets that is the bets that are more recognizable matches you will see a go at the end option as usually bookmakers have a huge margin on this exact Market before the match for example in the Premier League in most games you will see between the 72nd and the 77th minute as the line set accordingly you can bet on whether there will be a goal or no goal after any of those minutes and the OS for that are
1:32 1.83 in both cases that is as I said a huge margin before we go any further I would remind you to log on to our website betting.com to see more about our service we offer value bets that represent errors in odds from bookmakers which benefits us and our customers in the long run coming back to the topic of when you are going to follow a match to possibly place a bet on a goal after the 80th of minute it is very important that you know in advance which is the minute said by the bookmaker beforeand that you can bet on whether or not there will be go after that if a given match the odds are worse in that minute life that there are before the game then don't play it because as I said in the past video you don't want to put yourself in a worse
2:18 position than before the match started right now the main factors that we are looking at first you don't pick the highest scoring teams you only pick the teams that have the most goals failing in their games as after the 80th minute compared to the others second you need to go in depth and look at what percent of the games of given teams have goals for after the 80th minute then divide those stats into home and away games and finally see at what score the most goals for that is for example if there are a lot of goals in bom's games after the 80th minute but 80% of them are with the team is leading or losing and not in tight games with a score of 0 0 or 1-1 then this must be be taken into account third as I said in the last video about
3:03 the life matches if you don't watch the match don't bother betting at all watch what substitutions the coaches make defensive or offensive investigate if those players coming to have turned games before so again you have to go deep here fourth it's important to know the motivation and how prompt teams are to to a certain outcome before the game a factor that should not be underestimated if the result does not suit one of them of course even better if it does not suit both themes but this happens less often in such situations we have the potential for a more open game at the end of the match fifth use the analytics of XG or expected goals this data will give you much better information than the statistics sixth observe the way in which teams attack most often and try to interpret whether
3:50 they have spotted their weak spots and therefore whether it is a matter of time before goal Falls if you try to observe you will see that very often a team score ago in a way it has already tried several times before in the match seventh observe the stoppages in the game in the second half and try to predict how many minutes of extra time will be given this is also a key factor eighth choose the bookmakers that have the lowest margins and therefore the highest odds for this type of betting in this strategy you should play with the same amount of your bank roll always which is the flat St and the bests are of course singles play at least 2.20 ODS as the idea is to catch around 50% of the bets which will make you a profit in the long run of course if the odds for
4:36 the next goal reach 2.20 before the e8th minute and you have the available factors you need to bet do it before the eth minute as well now I'll give you also a couple of websites that you can use as tools and information for your analysis and selections soccerstats.com here you will find exactly these specific stats for goals in all periods of matches FY states.org here you will find averages and percentages of specific stats which you can also use as starting point remember that each OD is reciprocal to a certain probability percentages under.com here you can see the expected goals and you can also Google other sites for this analytics the statononline.com and bet in.com are
5:22 two more sites with some quite interesting and specific statistics
