0:05 Good morning. Welcome to Morning Outlook. This is Kim speaking on Wednesday the 28th of May. So, what we got in store today? Well, questionable to be sure. Um, looking at trade eyes for today and they're quite limited. So, um, let's quickly look through where we are. there could be one you could join with if it starts moving in the right direction again. Um we'll start off just looking at the majors just to run through what we've got there. But before that quick look at the news and in fact I'm just going to take this forex calendar here. Uh New Zealand uh interest rate uh was uh cut to 3.25 which was forecast there. So nothing
0:52 surprising. I think they may have more cuts to come eventually. But um aside of that, we got uh we've had all this uh we got speakers all happening here. What we got left now? Got the FMC meeting minutes. That's it really. Um let's just check speaker wise. We've got a speaker this morning here. Fed speaker Qashqari. um often it's one or has been one of the ones that's listened to quite a lot. Um so Bank of New Zealand talks later. So not a great deal uh trading there. Um we'll come on to the other markets in a short while. Let's just look at the currency markets first then. Euro Euro
1:40 has continued. It popped in a a pivot swing there on the dailies yesterday. Um it's broken down at the moment sitting on its 34. It's it's still in its sort of uh um bigger bigger trend line here. Uh bigger bigger trend still to the upside. We just see what this just break this broken its nearterm trend that was running through there putting lower highs. So structurally um things have changed again uh to the downside. but is whether or not the uh the um weekly pivot can actually hold things here. So, we're sitting back into its weekly pivot. Can it hold it? Are we going to get a bounce off this or is it going to just continue through? Now, it hasn't hit the R1. So,
2:28 um the probability S1 being hit if it does start breaking down is better. So, we'll say see how it how it travels there. But uh for now um it's all again on the hourly point of view looking at the daily pivots here short of its pivot uh a break break back below the S1 could see it running off to the S2. It's all shaped here. Lower highs, lower lows. It certainly looks like that there's potential there. Uh the pound similar but uh has been has has been running slightly stronger but um it has also coming up come off here and well let's just extend this trend
3:17 line. There we go. Oops. It's round about that. It's not actually coming off that at the moment. There we go. Um, so it's si similar price action but not quite as as weak in effect of what is showing there. But when you look at the lower time frames, it's still pretty ugly here. And same thing could apply in terms of a breakdown here back down towards its S2. Um, certainly it looks like a bit of dollar strength coming through. Um, however, again, as I always say, at this time in the morning, we it doesn't take much to give us a turn and particularly when we got support like we have on the euro and well, we're just short of the the pivot here. We could
4:03 could see things all change. So, it's just something to watch out for. It's a bit of an ether either or. Um US dollar yen again we've got some it's running back into some resistance uh bullish engulfing uh key reversal uh candle there yesterday is still in this sort of well yeah lower t lower trail back in this lower trend I should say at the moment it looked pretty good for um up until yesterday when it started turning there but we again we've come up to this sort of point of resistance into back into a a quarterly pivot. The weekly pivot, weekly R1 sort of sitting around here and it's just stalled a little bit
4:49 here. We could see things shape up a little bit and drop back down. The trends are still there. It could uh could easily roll back. Now whether you take that from the break of these uh uh moving averages or below the pivot, it's probably more conservative below the pivot, but uh it would shape up quite nicely for further downside. Aussie US dollar, this has been so choppy of late. I've really I really don't like the daily action here at all. Um there may be some intraday trades to be had, but it's such ugly pairing. Um, however, you look at it on a 4hourly, it doesn't look so bad at this stage. Um, look at it on a dailies and
5:36 where we are. Um, well, we could see a continuation to the downside and that's really where I'd be looking for. It has had previous support along its uh uh quarterly pivot there. It's back into its quarterly uh two, I believe. Yeah, sorry. R1, be pardon. So, it's not far back towards its R1 there. Um, just looking at what else we got there. It really, it's just such a pig's ear. I'll leave it for now. US dollar CAD. Sometimes it's not only the ones that you want to look at, it's ones which one which ones not to bother looking at. Um, and it seems more like that these days
6:22 than than great ideas. So, this CAD, same sort of thing. It's it's inverted, of course. Uh, but same principle here. It's it's caught a bit of a bounce here. Uh, giving us a pivot swing sort of pattern on the price action. Um, however, well, it's broken through. It's just a little bit softer. It's broken through. Um, it's a weekly pivot here. it has had quite a quite a correction in the whole scheme of things. Um when you look at these quarterly pivots, in fact, let's just come back to the let's just change this into a daily just so you can see where we are relative to the quarterly pivots and we're right down there into its sort of S2 territory. So, um we still got bit quite a bit of
7:08 quarter to go yet as well. Um we're only nearly two months in. So, we got another month to run on these, but it's at the moment at least, it's looking uh like it wants to get back in. Oops, didn't want to do that. I wanted that one. That's it. Right. Um, so moving on. Yeah, it's it's just looking a bit risky at the moment on the short side of things as it was shaping up quite nicely yesterday. just took it away from us and well, it's looking like it's continuing to go back, but not necessarily a point where I want to start trading it long yet. New Zealand
7:54 dollar, it just continues in this horrible mess. It's so similar to the the Aussie. Yes, we've had some spells where it sort of come off quite well for um around about a day really or just over a day. I mean, yesterday it was really choppy. Came off. it continued through that. Um news was quite quite reasonably be positive overall. Um and the po post um release of the interest rates etc and the meeting wasn't too negative there um on the markets. However, there isn't anything I want to trade from it. US dollar Swissy
8:40 This was we did get a a bullish engulf and this is very similar to what we've seen um some of these other markets and inverted markets. Um it has broken its uh weekly pivot here. So again just that bit weaker but it's whether or not it breaks back down again. I'm sort of looking at these and thinking, well, yes, they've uh uh they they were in a really strong downward trend here. Yes, they've had a bit of a bounce at the moment. How convincing is this, though? Um, we'll see. But, uh, nothing right now, but there is a possibility. Euroyen remains. I mean, it's so ugly, but it did actually reward
9:27 me yesterday. Um, this move here. Um it just took an auto trade for me and that was it. It uh it it went at such a rate it pushed up and was quite successful. But uh I've left that switched on. It could set this morning. It was 7:59 at the moment. Uh we could see another setup and he probably need well we do need another hour for me to see what's happening. But this is a possibility if we get another bullish bar here. Um, we could be uh setting up for the R1 at some stages. Just see what comes from this. This is the perfect sort of bounce sort of area. Let's just see if we get a continuation. Um, an idea for today. Um,
10:15 well, the Euro pound. I took a short on this yesterday actually. Uh, so I've got a a short running on this at the moment. Um, I've been waiting for ages for it to break its 200, but it finally it kicked into it uh last Friday. Uh, bank holiday didn't really do too much yesterday. Just triggered me into a short position. I'd put a sell stop in here and got uh fed up waiting. Um, it's it's still to me, I mean, obviously I'm still in a trade. I haven't got a stop a million miles away cuz if it starts breaking uh back above the level where I have put the stop um I've got things wrong and I may as well put it there as opposed to uh many other places. So I'm quite happy with where it's sitting there. It's a
11:02 it's a big enough uh movement. not looking to make a massive it's see I think it's a 1.75 or something like that return on it if it comes out but uh so my entry there is I've put it on here actually just uh it's actually let me just read out the entry that I took on this uh so I'm entered at 8377 now if you can see an opportunity before then but uh that's the point to me where it it was initially breaking in the previous lows there and below that 200. Now it could just float around where it's sitting at the moment or go anywhere. I've got a stop loss uh around 8420 which is uh the highs here where it
11:47 shows it clearly 8420 there on here and the target at 8305. So there we go. Here's an idea. Um it it I I would leave it until it starts coming back down. I wouldn't try and prejump it. Um, let it show its hand again. Basically, I wouldn't start from here is the usual thing. Let's see if it's going to go down there. Euro Aussie um continues in a mess. Europe's really not flying one way or the other. This Aussie has been choppy and well, we can see what's happening there. Euro New Zealand's off a little bit this morning, but um whether it's got anything more in it, well, it's it's not looking pretty
12:33 at this stage. And Euro CAD, I was looking at Euro CAD yesterday, possibly off of it 4hour here, but it put this pivot swing in here. Was looking, waiting, and in the next bar it just went the opposite way. I left it alone, and I'm glad I have. It's just turned into a chop. Now, there still the possibility of that coming off, but it looks like we're into one of these horrible choppy moments. And uh we could be seeing another little ascending channel, but it's just not playing for me at the moment. Other pair I was looking at yesterday was the Aussie CAD. Now, this is really on the on the bigger time frames. I was looking at this. We'll see how it develops. It was it just didn't close very well yesterday in the end. I was looking at it off a
13:19 daily, so more of a swing trade. Um, it it broken its 34 is looking like, well, that might close nicely for tomorrow. It's not the best. I mean, if it continues to on the sell side, I'm interested in this. It's got the lower highs, lower lows coming through there. It looks like a weakish market. Um, just shaped up so nicely and went uh quite early yesterday. uh Monday uh Monday and Tuesday even um it's it could be coming back continuing to this downside. So I'm watching it quite carefully here. So there you go as another potential looking at other markets. We'll look at your usual gold, oil, etc. Gold's really not doing too
14:05 much here. You can see it's consolidated. It does become a little bit more bearish breaking the 200 and and the 50 moving averages. So, it's sitting there becomes a bit more bearish. It's not really going either either way too strongly. Um, the longer it takes around this area here, the more it dwells away from the highs here, just makes it look like it could fold. Right. Oil. Um, it's a real mess. I haven't been able to get a trade for for a while on oil. I missed missed a couple of opportunities, but um I tend to look in the afternoons. Arguably yesterday there was the uh the move that sort of started midday properly. It uh put the spike in
14:52 there and started to break down, but I have to say that was one I missed. But it's been so so choppy. Um not really liking what he's doing at the moment here. It's it's a bit in no man's land. So, we'll leave that clear. S&Ps. Morning, Mike. S&Ps. Well, what we got going here? It's We've had a couple of updates here. It's retracing a little bit at the moment. Possibility of a uh any sort of movement. You look at how small these bars have come uh overnight there uh relative to the sort of size that we're used to on this. We'll see. it could uh yet start breaking to the
15:38 upside. So, it has has some scope there uh to the upside. I still wouldn't be shorting this. Um if it came back to the pivot, that in in turn might uh give it a bit of support yesterday. It didn't call up it into its R1 later, but it started moving quite nicely uh in the morning there. It picked up and was looking quite uh like it was going to push back up. We'll see what it does today. But patience, uh, what time was that when that really kicked in? 2:00. Uh, it did it did a reversal there and ran. Anyway, we'll see how it shapes. Um, the footsy down 2 this morning. Never really um grabbed the momentum yesterday. It sort
16:24 of got there, but has rolled back off. Let's just look at the bigger picture here. And it's still it's not that far away from its alltime highs. And this always makes you wonder whether it will get another kicker going into these towards it as we running through towards the summer. They say selling may go away. Um we'll see if that rings true with these markets because no one's selling too much at the moment that's for sure. Uh they're all been uh running up. Um anyway, it looks quite positive on the Alice here. We just first hour this 8:00 bars already uh gone more positive maybe back above its daily pivot would look more bullish
17:12 but um there's the footsy the DAX don't really the DAX has made new alltime highs expected yesterday or suspected um pushed out there um in the morning session and it's not done a great deal since. It just had that sort of come 8:00 off it went and it ran right up to its R2. Hadn't caught the pivot. Perfect textbook. Uh R1, R2 without a pivot. Um see what it does today. It's shaping up here. Um just patience here this morning. It might be Well, it doesn't catch I would rather it catch its pivot before I look to a long side on it
17:59 personally. see see if it gets a reaction off this pivot and starts moving back up. If it doesn't, I want it to break these highs to be more bullish on it. Okay, so it's back into alltime highs situation then again. Right, I shall leave you there. Um, wish you a great day. Bye for now.
