Bull Market Rasa Beruang dan Bocoran Alpha Coinfest 2025

0:00 Hello guys, welcome back to Triok Kekwek podcast. Hey, in this episode we're going to talk about our backlog because we didn't have a podcast last week. Eh, some went to Coinfest, others didn't go to Coinfest. And I want to say special hi to our viewers. Actually, there are a lot. Eh, not really much. It's not very popular, it's just not like Andreas Tobing or anyone like that, right? But yeah, there are a lot of people who stop by like, eh K Jonathan, K Jonathan, like that. I heard L's tricks like that. like quite a lot e like one one s event there are maybe at least 10 people like that and so special thanks to to you guys yes who said hello yesterday and this

0:47 tried to get angry these two don't want to come this this is offered to come don't want to come these two if it were me I'm okay because there is a plus sat now right now the one who ngono noh Jo has lived in Bali must get angry vest coins last. I was invited to invest, he said do you want to be a speaker? I said that my speakers weren't interested, but if the trio complained, my speakers were interested but they didn't tell me. So you have to make Coinvest angry. Yes. How about this? Wow, it would be fun if it was just for yourself. That makes a backdrop, right? Make a backdopiki or next year yeah. Yes, you can . Yes, yes, yes, yes. E but anyway

1:34 before we start e friendly reminder guys to subscribe, like and share this video. E comment as much as possible. Whatever you want to comment, we will read it. Okay. E I think today's discussion should be quite exciting, right? There are many things happening in the market. Um, so of course we want to dig into other's alpha and insights. But first of all, first topic, our podcast ended with a heated discussion about a coin that one person was long and one person was short. Wow, there's Itina or Ena. Wow, do you remember yesterday , guys, I said, "Oh, I'm bullishena." Then why not, K Silvester used to say I was shooting Etena. Then I was like, "Huh, I'm just hanging out like that, right? Then we're going to each other's theses and press

2:23 forward, we have to say congratulations. There's someone who seems to be smiling really big. Sos, right. Let's keep, let's keep the tab, maybe until the end of the year, how many soccer teams are there? 1 eh, this is between us, not yet, later with Kevin, it's going to be exciting . That means Koko's algorithm or spreadsheet is also god, right? There are additional insets. By the way, is that position still open or has it been closed or what? K no, no, it's already closed. So, um, I ee, basically I opened it as I said at that time because I compared it to the previous FOMO level, it was almost the same, it was already high. So

3:09 that's the basis for me to open a short. Well, when did I close it? Well, I closed it based on that too, when the FOMO level yesterday, the price had dropped to half or 0.4, then I closed it. That's it. H so eh the trade, eh the strategy Based on that. That's simple. Okay, so we both win then. I got TP Plus, eh, TP plus SL plus, what's it called? Yes, SL plus. Uh, and K Silvester also got the short. W short. Well, the dealer lost. That's very rare. Retailers should be happy to win. The dealers should be happy about that. It should be celebrated.

3:56 Uh, in the comments, everyone supports me . There. Oh, my friends are confused or not, they said the target is long. Oh, 2 dollars, they said. Why update it, what's with this spreadsheet? Why are there so few psychics? I'll join in this time. Um, so if I have two trade plans now, I have two. One is still long Ethereum Bitcoin, that's still the first one . Now, the second one, I'm looking for divergence. Divergence, eh, I mean, different, we're talking specifically about RSI divergence. So, the condition yesterday, when we updated yesterday, there was a

4:42 big FOMO after that suddenly dropped. Well, usually after that, after it drops, the dealer does n't want to just drop straight away, he has to play at the top first. Up and down, up and down, you have to play. So, I'm looking for fake coins. What do you mean by fake coins? Coins that are actually no longer strong enough to climb. But they're still fake, they still seem to want to try to climb, so I'm trying to find those, the terms of trading, right? But again, because this is truly window trading, meaning I don't expect to hold this position for the long term. Because the divergence doesn't play long because there's an opportunity for those who play there. That's it. Then short bias, yes, meaning this

5:27 play is tokens that have been pumped, which are unsustainable, not all of these. Not all of them are short, Jo. There are bullish divergences too. So in a way. Yes. So this is the right time for me to look for divergences between bullish and bearish. Yes. Moments like this. Moments after being pumped, then lowered, then raised Again. Moment of relaxation, right? Yes Yes, yes. Are you just kospill like three or three, what are the other things on your list? Mm last year yeah. But it's already closed, open, closed, open. Not bad. Oh, I got Solana earlier.

6:14 What else? Town, Solana, Rome, R O M. Oh, okay. I see, I see. I see. Just three, not too many. But as a notice, everything has been closed. So we can't put it here. Yes, it's all closed. I see, I see, I see. Yes, today I heard that there were stickers that people were bullish about, right? Like for example bio. Bio yesterday again uh pam pam pam. Then who knows, if Silvester is short, the others are in bullish bio. Eh, why is Silvester short like that? Exciting. How does K open the shot or not? No, no. I'm crazy, I don't understand what a coin is. I'm not there, I'm not there, I'm not there What's the antipathy towards him?

6:59 So just relax. Okay. Okay. Uh, but the sadistic one, sadistic hype, right? Guys, yeah. I don't know about this hype. Oh, it seems like in crypto, it's a habit to look at coins that seem to make you excited like Uncle, right? Remember? It used to keep going up for the past year, basically the others were going down, it kept going up. After that, uh, Kevin's coins were Tron X, TRX. They were constantly going up like that. But I mean, I've been in crypto for how many years, uh, I've seen conditions that suddenly go up and down steadily, then suddenly, nothing, go down drastically. So it's difficult, huh. In crypto, you

7:47 want to believe, you want to be a believer, but no, no, there are no believers, huh. Okay, we'll discuss the coins later. But I want to direct our conversation to update you guys, uh, what happened in the past two weeks, or even if we want to pull back to get the bigger picture of 1 month, especially from a macro perspective. Em from the macro side eh I think a lot has happened eh from the ups and downs of sentiment, right at the very beginning, we had employee eh employ employment employment rate eh dropped drastically, it was corrected and it dropped drastically. After that suddenly the probability rate cut in

8:33 September jumped. After that, the PPI came out, I forgot, was it a week or two ago, did we have PPI or not? I don't think so. But the PPI came out, after that eh the probability dropped again like that, right? After that, there was Jackson Hall like that. Well, let's go straight to Koko Kok Kevin. How is it Ko? Uh, can you update a little, eh, what are you seeing and eh, why is there a game like that, eh, from employment to PPI and then to Jackson Hall, what is this? Okay, eh, maybe start with employment first. So let's remind you again, refresh again. The first time it started with NFP. NFP was revised,

9:19 then eh, eh, the director of BLS was fired by Trump because he was considered to be biased, right, siding with the opposite party, namely the Democrats. And um, this seems like a CNN conversation, right? It's like we're chatting like we're on CNN. Yeah, yeah, the point is, let 's just take the NFP lightly. First, the revised NFP was disappointing because we assumed the economy was slowing, that's the point. Then, let's look at the CPI. The CPI also supports the Fed's September cut. That's why the probability of a spike is high, because for

10:05 those who don't know, the Fed is sworn to have two tasks. One is to maintain price stability, and the second is to achieve maximum employment, meaning there shouldn't be a lot of unemployment. Well, from a price stability perspective, the CPI has n't risen much. It's true that it's at 3.1%, but the headline CPI is at 2.7%. Well, that means that prices have n't actually risen much, up to the CPI. But the revised NFP figure, with a small increase, makes the market a little worried because it means the economy is

10:51 already in decline. The Fed is still delaying interest rate decisions, and that could cause an economic recession to occur very quickly. So, if you don't know, it's like what happened in 2008 before the market crashed, everything was fine. It only took a matter of time , less than a week, and then it was a bear market. That's it. A market crash. But the signs weren't there, no, no, I mean, it wasn't like there were signs two months before . No. The process was that fast. If we relate it to 2018, it would be the same, a market crash. But maybe at that time, the impact of the tariffs

11:37 was prolonged. Okay, but back to this. The CPI, then the next day, the PPI came out. The PPI shot up, and it was the highest increase so far. And the figure, if I'm not mistaken, was 3.7% or what, I forget. But it was around that. The point is, the increase was quite good, because it was 0.9%. Now, for economic observation, they see that PPI is a term that looks at the upstream, before it finally passes. From distributors to consumers, meaning from producers to distributors. Well, the PPI rose by 0.9%. This is said to be the impact of tariffs. So it's already starting to be felt. So when the

12:22 PPI data came out, wow, the market was shocked. Well, there was a wave of turmoil there. That's what caused Bitcoin to correct for at least how long? The last few weeks, right? Yes, yes . I think the last few weeks, right? Around how long, more or less, the last two weeks. Well, finally, Jackson Hall, right? Yes, of course, at the same time. That's a story. Oh, yes, yes. But next year too, right, Kev. Next year, there's also a cheat sheet, right? So, like this: first, NFP sentiment was positive, CPI was still positive, PPI

13:09 turned negative once Jackson Hall returned to positive. But why? The biggest question is, why did it drop again after Jackson Hall the next day, or more precisely, a few days later? Why is that, everyone? The news. The news, maybe. One of them is the most important, why is it Scott Ben. Ben Scott Bason. Well, actually, there's one crucial thing Cook knows. Is he a cook ? He joked about a member of The Fat who Trump said he wanted to fire. So again, that makes me wonder, although I don't really understand whether the

13:55 firing was that sectarian. But many people think that if something like this happens, The Fat is n't independent and can be intervened, blah blah blah. The fact is, it's not affected by the stock market . So, what other triggers could there be? It turns out there were two: one was Wales selling Bitcoin. If I'm not mistaken, the nominal value was around 24,000 Bitcoin, and he sold it on Sunday. So, at a time when market volatility was low, volume was low, and things were calm, he suddenly sold Bitcoin in New York, or more precisely, in the US, around the afternoon. That was really bad . Meaning, for us, it felt like,

14:41 if I'm not mistaken, early morning, when suddenly Bitcoin dropped sharply to 109,000. But if I may assume this, friends, let's go back to Jackson. The Hall. I think Jackson Hall is the key to the fourth quarter. I think we've been talking about this for a while, not just like the last time. We talked about Jackson Hall. There's likely a clue here, and I think this is the first time in a long time that we've heard Jerome Powell speak at Jackson Hall. He explained everything from upstream to downstream, and he said, "The implication of all that information is that we can adjust our policy based on the

15:29 labor force data. So, it seems like the stronger, stronger, and the highlight for The FATET isn't related to price figures, but to the labor force issue. That's actually the most crucial thing. So, I see it, mm, so you could say that Theat is do-fishing there. With do-fishing, it should relatively support the market to be relatively bullish. That's roughly it. But sometimes, we know the market doesn't immediately align. So when data like that comes out, now like this , the latest, hot one, Nvidia, you know? Nvidia, right? The earnings report was released this morning, early in the morning. Well, the

16:14 earnings report data was all based on expectations. But look, Nvidia's stock plummeted after that. So sometimes it's not directly proportional . So when news comes out, it doesn't necessarily mean people immediately react positively. Sometimes, maybe someone has been positioning for a long time. So, the day Jackson Hall made the announcement, for them, this was the right time. I need to manipulate this. Manipulate who? The retail. Because the retail saw Bitcoin drop below R10,000 and immediately became nervous, like, oh, this is going to be a market . Something like that. Bitcoin rallied from R0,000 to R5,000 and now it's down R10,000, and you immediately

16:59 said it's going to be a market. That really shows how severe the sentiment has changed significantly. Yeah, that's roughly the latest update. So, for those of you who don't know, those who have n't listened in a long time or do n't know what's going on, the market is going up and down but then it's going down. Overall. Yes, more or less, that's the historical story behind it. Wow, we've gotten a history lesson over the past month. History for the past two weeks, right? Two weeks. I see. E K Svester, do you have any insights into what's happening? How do you see it? Well, in general, everything is good. Why good? First,

17:47 from an American perspective, Donald Trump is feeling good, feeling calm. What do you mean by calm? Because, uh, his trade deal has started to show good results with Europe, and he's starting to get better at meeting with Putin in Alaska. Although it's all just for show, right? The Ukraine war is still going on. It's just for show, but from the outside, everything is good. He doesn't have much pressure on him. Prices and Jerome Paul also seem to be somewhat willing to comply with him. Then he wants to tinker with the market, and his resistance is only from the market, not too much. So everything is like, this isn't

18:35 extraordinary mode, it's normal mode, which is good . I don't see anything that could make the market uneasy, or unexpected. I haven't looked in that direction yet . Okay. Um, so from Nvidia's perspective. So this is interesting. This is it. We were talking about this for the show, for the front. But actually, there's something more interesting behind the scenes. What I'm really interested in is the relationship between countries because of Trump's trade war, they're playing chess smartly. I'm happy to see that between China, India, Russia, and America, each

19:23 playing chess smartly. Hey, America is pressuring India, they say, wow, you've become an enabler for Russia's economy because you buy Russia's oil, or because of you, Russia can operate, even though Donald Trump just shook hands and wanted to increase trade with Russia, and that's it, even though the one who buys the most Russian oil is China. Well, that's it. But India is being pressured. Why is India being pressured? Yes, Russia, India, and China. The weakest is India among the three. Yes, you're pressuring the weak. That dynamic is very interesting.

20:10 If you pay attention, it will be very interesting. Lessons like that at the highest level are the same as those at our everyday level, which also happen. At our daily level, you have four friends or it's like a work relationship, you want to put pressure on three people, you want to make a scapegoat like that, who is your scapegoat? No, maybe the strongest, no, maybe the one with the most friends, yes, the weakest is the one who is the scapegoat, yes, yes, that's what it means, so it's interesting from there, I think it's a bit off the mark, I don't think it's mater kekwek, no? nothing. It's exciting but it's fun. Fun, fun, fun. Yes The thing is, I also saw how come the

20:56 Indians just invited Chin, right? So it seemed like there was immediate cooperation with the Chinese side. So it's like automatically , "Oh, you're being mean to me, so I'll just look for friends and go straight to China." Well, India and China are also really funny. The KF joins the two of them in braks, right, but after that, the two of them fight each other? It was fun. But now, like this, there's America added to it. So politicians have to be smart about it. You can't say you don't like it, or say anything. No. The main thing is, you're in front of the mirror. I just watched Trump today being asked by reporters, "Hey, you said you want to bring in 750,000 Chinese students,

21:43 so now you're being asked by reporters." Now, why is this being asked? Because maybe just a few weeks ago or a few months ago, if we remember, Trump just wanted to cut visas for Chinese students. So it shouldn't be made difficult. Well, now it's opened again. What did Trump answer? Oh, yes. Chinese students are good, very good. Without them, they will revive our economy . Don't worry, I'm very familiar with them. It's fun to watch, if you want to know the real stage, the highest level of hostages, right? Oh, I see. Yes, yes, very interesting. Okay, now back to the economy. Back to the economy.

22:28 Back to the economy, everything is still on schedule, on track. Meaning the schedule is not fat There's something that's changed too much. In fact, he's more inclined to be okay, I think I can change, I've changed, it seems like it's softened, and the time is near. This is the art of giving face, they say diplomacy is the art of losing silently. If you lose to someone like that, but you use diplomacy, then you've lost, but you lose quietly, you still hold your face. Jerum Paul, you're stubborn, you're pressured, you're pressured even more, you say, okay, slowly, it's almost time for this fat meeting, but it's just like that. So, actually, he

23:15 didn't lose that badly, but he's giving face to Trump. So, from an economic perspective, it's still on track, I still believe it's going to be a good run. From a Bitcoin perspective, well, this is interesting. There was a recent announcement, as far as I know, when it went down yesterday, it was also because the American government said, "Hey, Scott Beset, you said, 'We're not going to buy,' it turns out, we didn't buy, when he was interviewing, right? We, uh, America, just keep what we have, but no, we won't use it to buy, so it went down not long

24:00 after that. Try talking about this on Twitter personally. But in a way, I think it's just a momentary dynamic. The ripples at the top, the bottom left . Actually, from the institutional perspective or the players who buy Bitcoin with deep pockets, they already know they don't expect the US government to buy Bitcoin . Where do they expect it from ? Adopting institutions from Black Rock. So nothing changes from there, nothing changes. In terms of Ethereum, it's still very hot. Why do I say my trading plan is still the same, Bitcoin Ethereum? Why? Because the ETF inflow is still good. It's still fun, it's

24:46 still okay. Nasdeq is also okay . Although now one of the big drivers, Nvidia, is having a bit of a headache. This headache is interesting. I don't know if you've updated or not. So initially, Nvidia was prohibited by Donald Trump or Biden from selling their most advanced chips to China, Sis. No. If you sell your most advanced chips, China could copy them. Finally, they racked their brains on how to do it. Okay, I'll make it for China, said Jensen Huang, a chip that's not that sophisticated. So, it's a win-win situation for both parties . Ah, okay, I can sell, I get the profit. China gets the goods, and America gets the profit, what? America gets the

25:33 competition. So every time we sell, America shares the profit. Amazing, right? Where else? In the Art of Making a Deal, right? Private companies share the profit. Well, but China has already said they want to. But recently, in the past week, a day, or two, China hasn't bought the goods, Men. The goods have already been produced. Ah, there are a lot, but the goods are not bought by China. Not annoyed with zero sales, right? Even though Jenson Huang was really happy when Dil was last there, if you remember the news, he went to China and met people there, they praised each other, it was because of that deal, but it didn't happen. This is China's cleverness, I said, "You think you want to hold back my goods, you're now eating that stock of yours that's

26:19 not too advanced, you try selling it elsewhere, you try looking for other buyers, maybe that's how it is, I don't know, but that's one of the reasons why Nvidia's performance isn't too good with its cloud, it also misses expectations, right? Oh yeah, its cloud division. Heeh. Oh, okay. I did some research earlier, K, about Nvidia. Uh, based on the latest research, I think one of the things holding back zero sales to China is the regulatory factor and the 15% tariff from Trump. Hm. He. So actually, I don't know, that's

27:04 why I'm confused, I don't know for sure whether it's China that's not buying or Nvidia that's holding back the goods. As far as I know, the one that's buying is China, ee KF. Oh. So, but it exists, but sales to other countries are running because this was made specifically for China, K. So, this chip, this one, now it turns out that Huawei can make it. So I'll give you lower level huh. Well, Huawei can already make something similar. So, China said, "Bro, why should I buy your stuff, you're not happy?" There are so many rules and my goods will make you foreign exchange. I'd rather use my Huawei. In his heart maybe so, but it doesn't come out officially. Yes, you have to be a politician at that level, right? You have to be smart.

27:49 How? This is Chip H, right? It's called the H20 chip. Is not it? Yes Yes Yes Yes. Send it to my house. I just want to say that there is something like that. I don't want anything to happen. Rejected goods yes. This is a normal rejected item . That's it, if it's me, what about you, Jo? Uh if eh what's your inside? I know you're busy lately. Maybe you can share what's inside coinvest jo, is there an alpha one, what do we do? I can press long 100x on the right. Later, finally, if the last K is, we have to do bridging,

28:36 we're bridging We're done with the history lesson, so I want to look ahead first, so this is September, eh, the question is September rate card, y rate card, yes or no, and then September or September, let's go, K, eh, Kepin, Kepin, I'll go first. Okay. Uh, by the way, sorry if I unmute, mute, unmute, because I'm afraid the sound of the rain will come in. Well, we're recording like this, we can't hear it, we can't hear it, so it will reach the viewers, they can hear it again. Okay. Uh, so RCAT, yes, eh, September, no. Wi, September, here. September. Uh,

29:23 no, no, actually it's like this. If you say September, the context is that we see the market as overall, it's going to be bullish, right? Well, in reality, now, if we just checked, this New York Open, Nasdaq has erupted again, Nvidia has returned to being bullish again. So, all the losses that occurred yesterday after the earnings data have recovered immediately. I think it's, what do you mean, it's already August 28th . I mean, soon, as usual, at the end of the month, many option contracts will expire. Darif market rollover contracts will also continue into the next month. This means there will be a lot of transaction settlements. Eh, the market is definitely

30:08 volatile, tending to be manipulative. If I were to say that, why? Because usually, some institutions really like to manipulate prices closer to maxpay, especially for options that are about to expire at the end of the month. Well, that's the condition that I'm actually paying attention to going forward, right? For example, in September, there's still NFP and CPI. I think if we were to make a prediction from now, I think it's not wise. Why not wise? Because actually, we know, like The Fat himself, he said, even though we consider him dodgy, I mean, dodgy isn't because he made a statement that I would be red-cut. No. Dodgy is because he didn't

30:54 actually respond to PPI. So we see Dodgy in a hocky way. Is that correct? So, he's dodgy, but he didn't say that I would be red-cut. He just said he was only appointed dodgy . Because dodgy is only considered dodgy based on what he said. I don't really feel that the PVI is that crucial. So, in the last situation at Jackson Hall, there was one thing I highlighted. What I highlighted was Jerome Paul stating that this price increase is temporary. He said that. So we can assume that for him, even if inflation does rise, it will

31:40 probably only be temporary, transitory, and ultimately, the main focus will be more on, uh, the workforce returning there. That's why we have to look at the NFP first at the beginning of the week, right? If the NFP really falls again at the beginning of the week or falls below 100,000 again, I think it's a good thing, it will be a good confirmation that the FAT will definitely be cut in September. Now, the real question is whether it will be cut or not. Let's go back to the triokwek from two weeks ago, Guys, namely the summary economic projection. Will the FET be replaced or not? If it is replaced, let's say it is replaced.

32:26 Hey, can I share my screen ? Permission from the gentlemen first. Yes, of course. Come here for a moment. Hey, where are the screen windows? Well, this. Okay. So, um, let's look at the reserve, yes, reserve. Okay, here's the biggest question, actually, we can combine it with this, right? Uh, wait, wait, wait. Did you see my screen? Oh, wrong. C char, no wonder I thought I shared it with Google Chrome. Turns out it was

33:12 Mozilla . So, actually, the biggest question is not about the September Redcut. I think the September Redcut has been confirmed with the latest condition above 80%. Now it's at 85%, it fluctuates a bit. This is also because the GDP was revised today. So, if the prelim was at 3%, now the advance is 3.3%. Oh, the economy is growing. Yes, that's about it. That's why it might drop by 2% or so. Well, but the biggest question is whether there will be three redcuts, right? This is 50% and this is 49%. What if this 50% shifts to here, 40%. So, what This is 50%, and

34:00 this one will rise to 50%. How do we see these two numbers growing, rising? The answer depends on the data presented by Jerome Powell regarding the labor data and the CPI. So, actually, I think the whole test, the whole test, is the statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy. Oh, this just came out. Wow. I think I need to read it, okay? Let's go to the projection materials first, okay? Here, guys. Here. So, if we look at this number, 3.9%, can we see it becoming lower? If so, it becomes 3.6%. Good. 3.6% is the median, right, from 3.5

34:50 to 375. So, we'll take 3.6%. Now, if it's like this, 35 to 375, then based on this number, we'll fall here. When? It has to be September . This one, here. This one, here. If he changes his summary economic projection, this is 39 to 36 is what makes the market bullish. If you guys pay attention to why Bitcoin can slow down, it's here, guys. Here it is . Okay, let me bring up a little history. It's currently rallying really fast, right? But suddenly why is the party over? This isn't because of Trump's inauguration or anything like that, but

35:35 it's all because of the Federal Reserve. Because the Fed, in December 2024 , changed its projection materials from the previous figure, um, 2025. Pay attention, guys. Because 2024, 2025, from 34 to 39, so it reduced the redcut by two times. When was the data released? The data was released on December 18th, and the market immediately slowed down. Hmm. H ends there. So, if, for example, we want to know whether it will be September, September, well, the answer all depends on F remaining. If we want September to be, it doesn't have to be, but at least if they change it, or at least

36:21 these numbers change, I think it can influence the market to move in a certain state. bullish for the rest of Q4. Because the only meeting we'll see him change his summary economic projections is in September. So, this September meeting, the yellow one with the asterisk, is associated with the summary of economic projections. We'll only find out more in December. So, the biggest question, in my opinion, isn't September or September, but whether Q4 will be bullish or bearish. So, how do we know? This is the clue. So, if we want to say, "Oh, I don't believe it. What is the macro impact on the state of

37:06 crypto? Just look at who made him scary. Only the Federal Reserve can. Well, I don't know, maybe when Trump tweeted it was also at the same time, I don't know. But what is certain is that I remember the incident like that. September 18th marked the top for the first time. So, the price came back there just for testing, then bam, that's it, correction, right? But whose momentum is it to brake? The answer is yes, the Federal Reserve. That's why I said something like that earlier . I see. So maybe it wasn't answered, but sorry , I'm really sorry. Your V will be whiter later Vin. Pigeon. What

37:53 dois but [Laughs] in a hokish way hokis is like hunting pigeons but eagles are like that so how is this story that must be with eagles having children like that what does it mean yes it's impossible hokish that is what we say is wrapped in dofish yes yes yes it can be like that yes hopefully you can get insight, friends, but that's what I see, from a macro perspective, if for example there is a change in SCP, I think we can be more aggressive and more optimistic. So, for example, if Jonathan asked K, what is the target for Ethereum, how much is K now? I don't have a target anymore, ee R8,000

38:38 random R8,000 ah if the SP changes, it's 8,200, a little increase. Oh, so it can be upgraded a lot. Yes, it can be upgraded. That's right. That's the confidence. Okay. I see. I see. Mr. Silvester, is it September or September? So, there's no fear, guys. Fear what? Fear that new money will be printed in large quantities. New money continues to flow into the market. I'm back to saying big beautiful bill, rate cut, fractional reserve will be added later, eh, fractional reserve means the money that can now be borrowed will be

39:26 cheaper. People are more willing to borrow money. This is the time for fear and not for us to be afraid. We only have a little money. The ones who are afraid are those who have a lot of money. Because the more money we have, the more our money is diluted, that is to say. So everyone is confused about what to do with my money so that it doesn't get too much damage. Everyone is scrambling and going where most likely will go, as if we already know the clue is still the same. Eh, if we talk about quantitative, eh, easing. Quantitative easing is already halfway through. This means that a lot of money has been printed and the rate card will be reduced soon.

40:12 So, if there is no X factor, there is nothing like subprime mortgages or other scary things that we don't know about, that we have never researched, then everything will go as they went in the past, how much? 10 years, 15 years. How has it been in the last 10, 15 years ? all of them are risky assets that tend to go up but are safe, yes, there are slow movements, they go down but they go up quickly. Why? Because the effect of money dilution is greater than the other effects. As Jono said, the train must keep running. Or what? You cannot stop the train. Yes Yes, that's not Jono's code, it's

41:00 Alden. Oh, [Laughs] there is no stopping or one stop or whatever, that's basically it. Well, if that's the case, ee, if we believe that, ee, the field conditions. So how do we behave, especially when we say it's September, right? Usually, during these decisive months, these rate cut months, there are many ripples, many shocks. We already know the long path, but the decisive months are full of ripples, lots of jiggles. So, in a way, if you want to enter through a lot of ripples and dribbles, it's actually not ideal. If you want to go in, go in before there are too many

41:46 ripples and shakes. Even if you want to enter, the way to do it is not to use high leverage, don't go all in at one point, you can spread it across many points. There are many ways that I'm sure everyone watching already knows. Just practicing it is difficult because what do I do with my money ? It's itchy compared to putting it in online gambling, right? Where should I put this? I'm confused about how to spend this money. Transfer the money to Jono if possible . So according to So according to the point, according to you, in essence, September will be full of jigs and don't enter when

42:32 it's jigs. No, no, don't enter when shaking. If you haven't entered, you have to enter. I believe that rather than missing out on an opportunity, it's better for you to enter, but not at one point. Moreover, if you enter in September, for example, you just enter your money, you divide it into 30 , enter one a day, one day a day, you can do that, right? I don't, I'm not the type of believer, hold on, wait, wait, wait, by the, then buy it, it's full, you'll miss the train, 15 years, you 'll miss the train, if you're a believer, for example. Okay, I want to add to Silvester, that's fine. So, what K Silvester said earlier was that the money

43:17 will soon come in, yes, there is one sign of liquidity that I see that is really significant. So, friends, you can check it out if you go to Trading View and search for this name, guys, RR . Yes, I don't know if this will have a significant impact or not, but history shows that if the RRP approaches zero or has a downward trend, the market can tend to be bullish. So, throughout 202021 until the end of 2022, the RRP will continue to rise. For those who don't know, this is a reverse repo, meaning the money is parked at the Federal

44:05 Reserve. Yes, in simple terms, liquidity is withdrawn. High Pakin means less money flowing in liquidity. Well, for the past two years, since 2023, the RRP has continued to decline. Okay. Well, in the final moments, precisely when the RRP had reached 50 billion dollars, every time we tested it, it kept going up. But for the first time, precisely in mid-August, for the first time we broke below the 50 billion dollar level. Well, what needs to be noted is that every time at the end of the month, the RRP usually tends to go up, yes, it goes up

44:51 first. Maybe for the short term, it's like saving it first, or reducing liquidity first, or something, I do n't really understand the reason. But what is certain is that every time it enters an active month in the middle and beyond, it goes down . So it's the same at the end of the quarter . At the end of the 3rd quarter, namely September, he rose. At the end of the 4th quarter, namely December, it went up, right? At the end of the first quarter he went up. So, we can assume that there are conditions that tend to be bearish just because of these moments. This liquidity is a bit withdrawn. But once the money flows back into the market, it's a sign that this is what's driving the market to be bullish. And I think if we look at it at least for this month, it's the same,

45:37 we see that at the beginning of the month, it was very bullish, right? But then the middle started to reverse. Okay, maybe we need to fry it, we need various manipulations and blah blah blah. But we see the fact that this money is actually flowing, which actually proves that the statement that Silvester said earlier is valid. This means that we believe that the market condition will soon be flooded with liquidity, just a matter of time, until maybe we wait for the interest rate that we mentioned earlier, the addition is that this is in terms of data for friends to learn too, so it's like, oh yeah, what is this, right? RRP, like that, I think guys, you know, ee, this is interesting, right? Reverse repo,

46:24 Jo, are you familiar with reverse Ripo? Eh, I actually did research that way. Hmm. Okay. So, to put it simply, reverse repo is like this. The government and the Fed said to the banks, "Eh, your money is idle. You lend it to me. Just lend it to me for one night, just one night." I give you flowers. I'll give it to you as collateral for American treasuries. Tomorrow morning. Tomorrow is not tomorrow. Yes Tomorrow you return my guarantee letter to me . I give you flowers. The interest will be divided into 365 days, okay? Well, what's that for? What's the point of doing something

47:11 like that? That's so the Fed can set the minimum interest rate on the market . What I mean is, for example, if the Fed gives a reverse repo now, the interest rate is 4.25%. For example, the Fed gives an interest rate of 4.25%. Which do people choose? Look for other people who borrow out there with interest rates of, for example, 4.5% but with higher risks, or at the Fed which has almost zero risk. You lend it to the Fed last night and get 4.25% interest. But ee pror rata ya. People still choose 4.25%, right? What does 4.25% mean? So it's a benchmark for risk-free loans,

47:59 right? That's the point of reverse repo, simply put. Well, Kevin said earlier about reverse repo, now the money lent to FET is decreasing more and more , getting less and less. What does it mean ? Even though we already know that money flows in and out a lot. But those who want to borrow from FET are getting fewer and fewer who want to use reverse repo. Why? Because people think that now I have more money, I have more opportunities to borrow it from other places. In my opinion, the risk reward is better than looking for the risk free 4.25% put in fat. I'd better borrow another place. The climate seems okay at the moment. After I measured the quantify ris rewarding, it was still okay, so I just lent it out. What does it mean

48:45 ? For people today the climate is not a climate of fear. The climate is not the climate, wow, I have to pull my waist to secure the money. No. This climate is an investid climate . Is that what reverse repo means? Yes That's all. Excellent. I like the ending. That's all. Because actually the language of reverse repo is a bit confusing. What does reverse and repo mean? That's really annoying. Correct. Actually, basically, in a purchase agreement, the repo is the same, you know,

49:32 in the past, financial people deliberately used complicated, confusing terms and people tended not to want to find out. This is on purpose. Why? So that the general public has financial literacy, their financial literacy is not that high. I don't want to study there. It's really complicated, right? Yes, that's all I know now. Yes, I'll just make a deposit, my savings account will be done. I have a savings account and a checking account, and I have a deposit account with just regular savings. I don't want to play money markets, for example, it's complicated. What are money markets? I'm also confused about market money. I went to the market and it was all money, like that, I'm confused, I'm not confused anymore. Saving account, checking done, that's what it means.

50:19 In that way, yes. Okay, thank you so much. Sorry, so because I said that, the conversation didn't go much further. I feel like I'm in college and I think my friends also think that actually this is really really good insight, guys. There are so many interesting insights today. So moving on, huh? From the heavy topics, we're back to the world of crypto. Eh and what are the friends here clicking on that for? That's the signal, huh? Signal. Okay, sir. I want to open our crypto signal conversation eh from sire.

51:07 Hang on a minute Joo, I'll prepare my exchange application. I've already pulled the leverage to 100x, right? Okay, Joo, tell me the tickets, I'll prepare them right away. I haven't been there yet. Oh, you have n't done it yet. This is the conversation. Okay. Here's an interesting tweet, guys. So, apparently in the last few days or weeks there has been a lot of activity from Bitcoin Wales dumping Bitcoin, but not just selling it. They switch over to Ethereum. And this value is not small and there are several. Well, I want to know your friends' responses and what it looks like on

51:54 your charts. Is this a sign that even Bitcoin Wales isn't seeing much upside and will instead be trading in favor of altcoins? Ee or how do you interpret this data? Is it time we did the same? the sample is too small in my opinion, I mean the sample is one user, yes, if we want to be a bit statistical, we need more samples, whes, in my personal opinion, to find a more meaningful meaning, yes, inside, because why, yes, because there will be a lot, especially with just bitcoin, I say only, yes, because compared to 21 million, yes, no, I have 10,000 R000 bitcoin, it's not like that. But what he meant was that compared to the 21 million that existed, he

52:42 only held 4,000, that is. So we need more, around 4,000 or so, to get insight. But overall we discussed this last week, right? Hey. In my opinion, the players who are used to playing with left and right putters have switched from before, they are already good at it. Well, now it's still going on. Moreover, if we look at it, it's very easy to see that Wall Street is currently experiencing a lot of hype around Ethereum. Everyone can see it easily and it can be seen. So for him to make the decision to

53:28 exchange 4,000 Bitcoins for Etherium, that 's logical. Because why is n't Ethereum at an all-time high? Yes, if you look at it, it's easy, Bitcoin's all-time high is from IDR 0,000 to 1.5 times that. So he hopes for Etherium, for example, to 6,000, 7,000, I'm sure he doesn't expect that much, 6,000, 7, like Bitcoin, that's pretty good, 4,000 Bitcoin, so it's around 1 and a half days. So, in my opinion, that's the kind of play , isn't it more impulsive play, more leverage like who? John Win is like that. It doesn't seem like

54:14 that kind of play. John Win John Win. James Win why became John Win? Not John Ca he's John Cena. James W yes James W who is John W koby and cowboy yes not John Wick. That's V fin, don't open the chart, for this one, the problem is what do you see here, like we can see BTCD I think BTCD is looking pretty good, I don't know if it's good or not, it depends actually like this K, we both agree, right? The last time we chatted via triokwek, we also had a chance to talk about this, you know, Bitcoin's ATH,

55:01 but Bitcoin's dominance wasn't ATH, instead it went down. Not ATH, but what I mean is we see that there is a divergence, as Sier said earlier. Well, actually this technical thing is technically wise, guys. If we have seen printing like this and then the next day you can see it retracing, right? So, it's like it opens here and then retrace just a little, after that it goes back down, closing more or less like that. Well, actually the next day is the same, it's still closing but open here, it retreats a little and then it goes down, right? Well, today if we look at this, it's called inside bank. If in terms of candlestick, this is e sor

55:47 daily, this is weekly, I mean. So, if we look at this weekly, we just opened again, the new candle is in the middle. Can this still go down like that? Actually, if I look at it from a smaller frame perspective , let's say daily in the same range, guys. So earlier I drew a weekly line like this . So that it looks nice, I'll color it red so that the color looks bold . It's red. Then I pulled it to the daily time frame. What happened? This is the range for Bitcoin dominance. This is the top of the weekly candle last week and this is the low of the weekly candle last week. The position that occurred at least this week, how many times have we retrace? 50%. So he just retrace it 50%. If

56:34 we look at it from a trend perspective, that means it's 50%. Let's say he goes up again like this. Overall, we still think that this still has the potential to go down. So, actually, if we look at Bitcoin dominance, it's apparent from the trend that the market is somehow rotating towards all coins. Or, if we look at the total, the total, the total crypto market cap is rising. That means this increase is dominated by people not shopping for Bitcoin anymore. It's like that. They've mixed their shopping. What are the recent hot things about Solana with Panthera Capital? There are some who are collecting billions of dollars. They plan to invest

57:21 in Solana and make it a sui treasury, which we discussed at the Tri Workweek meeting two weeks ago, and also through a nail holding company. That also creates a treasury, eh, corporate treasury, but using sui tokens. BNB is the same. Then recently, eh, I think the hottest one, we all know, is Etherium . But I see that the trend is starting to shift there and people are starting to notice. This is like what we 've discussed before, guys. So, I also got to know crypto, but initially I didn't buy Bitcoin, I bought old coins. See Bitcoin is climbing fast, oh I'll buy old coins like that. So, I think, as Silvester said earlier, why did they swap to Etherium? Probably

58:07 because Ethereum isn't all time high yet. So, if he's all time high, then I can get more, right? Well, this trend seems to be continuing with many corporations taking part in using these old coins tokens as their treasury. Is this actually something interesting? Hey, in quotation marks, it's interesting like this. Is this really a sign that the all coin season that many people have been waiting for could finally happen? But even if so, I see it as selective, yes, selective old coins, meaning not all of these selective old coins, with the note that they must attract corporate interest and that corporates also want to be involved, in

58:52 other words, to make this more interesting . So, if we look at it from the Bitcoin dominance perspective, my response earlier was that even if we see it rising, it's probably just part of the retest . And if he moves below 60%, this is already a strong achievement. I mean, the last time we were below 60% was in the first quarter, but only until February and January. After February, it continued to climb above 60%. So he claimed it was below 60%. I think it's a very, very strong confirmation that the trend has started to shift. The market is no longer just focused on Bitcoin, but they are also interested in utilizing

59:39 various alternatives available on the Coins Market. That's about it . That's just a glimpse of my view, friends. Eh, so don't immediately jump to conclusions like wow old coin season, just call the committee and tell them to give this statement, start, start, start, something like that. OK, I think only one follow up question from inside Kevin and K Silvester. Why if this is actually a sign of quote unquote alt season, yes, we see that the correction is quite deep and there are many alt out altcoins actually e creating all time high like that, there is BNB, there is hype, then Solana also seems to be pushing through e again breakout

1:00:25 ongoing, yes ongoing, right and Etherium is also very very strong, but why does it feel like the sentiment in real is not eu at all, yes, do you guys feel that way or is it just me? Hm. I feel like that. I'll show you one chart, okay? So, this chart answers it all. Come on, cool. What is this? E is not mim if he answers yes. If you answer everything, it means that next week there will be no more shows. Can you see this ? Okay, this is E, Ethereum's supply chart. So, Ethereum

1:01:10 can now be inflationary or deflationary. If more people use the network like that, many will get burned. Many were burned. But if it's more than the amount he emits every day, it means he burns more, meaning he's on a diary, right? Well, ee, Ethereum's style trend is that when there is a bull market, suddenly many people use the chain for transactions, whatever, left and right, transactions, left and right, on-chain, everyone pay attention now, this means that by 2025, yes, 2025, going forward, all

1:01:59 transactions will be flat, starting from 20, this is one of them, why? Because he has implemented ee upgrades so the burn is not much. But beyond all that, we can see now that the number of people using onchain is getting longer, the number of new adopters is not as large as before, and there are many who no longer use it . Now I ask Jono, eh, 2 years ago using onchain, which one had the most transactions or now? 2 years where? It was just right again 2 years ago, right? Why is there more, I don't know why, but it's just that the

1:02:45 longer it goes on, the more it's like this, right? It's getting worse and less like that. Didn't you say that just play futures? Just play ee trading or what? Tell me why ? Eh, I think so. Um, there's no FOMO, the liquidity seems thin. E, from the perspective of meme co- trading, if you go back to the previous event cycle, NFTs were really exciting. E, of course on chain goes crazy like that. And Ethereum was the number one L1 at that time . He, so that's how it is. Open sea Open sea. Yes that's right. So the answer is one of them. First of all, why did so many people use onchain? Because in the past many people burned money. From the platform perspective, Deffi is burning money. How do you burn the money? Yes,

1:03:31 actually I didn't burn any money. But the pony scheme is really crazy. In the past, people were just finding out. So, I'm crazy and want to get money there, the yield can be thousands of percent or tens of thousands. people are interested now, it's almost gone, but even people who already know how to play, don't follow anymore, don't want to try anymore with the ones that are thousands of press, hundreds of thousands of percent, like that, and in the past there was a metaverse, there were games, there were other games that could make us make transactions, it seems like it's fun, you know, onchain transactions, even though it's complicated like that, pressppresspcet, it seems like it's just fun like that, how come we feel like everything is like a new and more secure world like

1:04:18 this? Wow, it's different now, I mean the spark is n't there, isn't it? So maybe that's one of the reasons why it's like you're saying it's a phenomenon, but it does n't seem like you're okay with saying what your term is, Jo? What is that, eh fish in a hokish way. Pigeon tastes like an eagle or an eagle tastes like a pigeon. Yes, that's our motto now. Dubish. It's finished, hwies, how cool, should we change the name of our channel to da hw,

1:05:04 later the bird lovers will come, it's already good enough, the bird lovers will come, oh I see, what about Kevin, K K Kevin, what was that sentiment earlier, why is it so weak like this, mm ee, in my opinion, the biggest problem is in the selection of assets that friends buy. I think after the 2022 incident, if for example, my friends, ee, what I mean is, we're talking about 2020 and 2021 as an example case, okay? 2020-2021, what games are still good to buy? Polygons, matic, right? Polka dots, then coins. What

1:05:50 is it? Surely you've heard of Pundi X. It's impossible, right? There's X's purse, and all those kinds of MSG are the small ones, right? Small cap, small cap. So we did have we did have good performance at that time. Then in 2022, it got stuck like that, it went down to be market, be market, be market. 202324 many new coins started to appear. The new points are not just a few, they are incredibly numerous. Especially since the presence of Pun when the body is like that, right? And what's even crazier is when it's meme season. So there are a lot more mem2. In 2021 we are

1:06:38 stuck at Shibainu doch. Then what else at that time, eh eh PP not yet huh? PP not yet. Even the PP is after 2023, right? So since PP, new ones have continued to appear , Hipo, wow, all sorts of new ones. Well, so if I look at this phenomenon, it's like this. When Murat said that people are finally interested in playing at memes. Of course, yes. Memes are like NFTs. Hmm. So the difference is that memes are still in token form. If, for example, it is packaged in a different technological form, then it's probably just another, yes, it's just another, what is this, another

1:07:26 ? Another pony like that. Better NFT actually. Yes, that's true. Yeah, probably like that. That's how I see it. So people think, "Oh I mem mim mim shopping mim mim mim." it gets stuck more there. Meanwhile, if we were to ask people today, how many of them buy Ethereum? I mean, how many of you are more interested in playing in the ee ecosystems, the tokens, etc. Let's say for example Chainlink, let's say for example if in Solana, for example, the holding is more towards I don't know, maybe they are betting, for example, like that or oh I like Jupiter, this dex, this dex, wow, I'm betting there. For example, in

1:08:11 Ethereum, for example, maybe the LDO is liquid stacking. Ah, but I don't like the LDO. I prefer the other one. Did I forget again? Yes, the main thing is that the counter is not the LDO counter, it's L. Basically, tokens like that have utility and with promises of extraordinary technology. But somehow people are n't that interested. They are interested in memes, right? That's why yesterday, at the hyper liquid event, it was like this, right? K Svester said, yes, I don't feel it, even though the hyperliquid is rising like this, but how come I don't feel it? Yes, the euphoric feeling is like that, probably because most people are stuck in sono, how come, even if I

1:08:58 say it's like this, I already feel pretty good, but they still feel like they don't, I don't feel it, no way. I feel like an old coin, you know? Hmm. Yes, that's my response. So it's like indirectly creating a hype that actually makes the town sadder compared to the happy one in the 2021 era. If you bought Min coin in 2021, did you really buy it or just one Doge at that time? So everyone who holds Doge is really happy because we are all in the same boat, like eh Doge is 1 dollar, huh. Crazy Elon Max was invited to this event. Doge pam. P So that's how happy you feel, huh? Now that era no longer exists.

1:09:44 Hmm. Interesting. What about Jono? I do n't mean it because I think like this. This means that the four-year cycle theory is already at its tail end. The tail end should be euphoric, right? Why is there no euphoria at all? Like it feels weird. like it feels so weird. It's like why is it that in the tail end the use cases are dropping, the retail isn't really winning like that, you know. Like e so yeah I guess this is not the tail end. I don't it doesn't feel like the tail end. But at the same time, altcoins are already quite high. So, I do n't know, maybe it makes me a bit optimistic, it seems like there's still some

1:10:35 upside, right? Because usually you have to wait, you have to wait for the retail FOMO, but there is no FOMO at all. My mom didn't ask anything, right? Like I, my friends haven't asked me anymore, I mean, there was L who asked me a while ago, when his bitcoin was at 120K, it ran out, and after he ran out, it didn't take long for it to go down and then it was quiet again, like he was really being played around with. Anyway guys, it's almost 1 hour and 10 minutes. E that's all Jo insert alfanya Coinvest Jo. You promised me I'd be waiting. Okay, okay, okay. E actually not too much to be honest guys. E I think that feeling is why I said why there is no e4 retail. Because actually, there were n't that many Alphas

1:11:23 during Coin Fest Week. Actually, during Coinvest, the market wasn't really quiet because on the last day, it was just at Jackson Hall when people were partying at the club, suddenly Jerome Paul said that and suddenly Michael spiked, but everyone was partying, eating, doing whatever. I'm also at the villa with my friends from my office, I'm not checking my wallet anymore, suddenly I see this, how come it's gone up like that, right? So, throughout that period, I actually didn't get too fussy and didn't talk too much about Alpha, but I think the two that I took away were like that . E so the first one is more boring

1:12:10 , the most boring one is that people are already talking about enjoying your profit if you have already made a profit. So the first alpha is actually stable coins. In other words, if you've made a profit, enjoy it. He's already starting to be like, "Just trim your position, don't be too greedy." Blah blah blah. Adv, badin liquidity less than market. Yes, that was the sentiment at that time. So, that's Al number one, this is the most boring. But yeah, maybe there's truth to it, maybe there is n't. Em, but most of the sentiment is like oh it's starting to get boring, it's like the offside isn't that big for that kind of thing. Not too not too like very optimistic, very bullish like that. Then the second Alpha, I think this is the most interesting and this is the recurring one that

1:12:55 many people are talking about, eh, it's the same but still a stable coin narrative. This is one stable coin from the stable coin side. The stable coin that TP is one is a narrative stable coin from the token side and this token has only one ticket that is currently being hyped up, namely XPL. there are so many of these and ee I don't know if this is only among Indonesians ee but it's like Indonesians are really, really aggressive and talking a lot about it and I think a lot of people are joining the presale too and they are treating it like a hype when the hype was

1:13:43 just launched on 4 something like that is what Jo the ticket is Jo XPL XPL was on E Kevin's watchlist. Oh. Oh my God. This one I XL is currently in premarket. It's premarket on Futures. Eh, it's already on Binance and has been sent to Liquid. Em, this is permission, permission to share, yes. Permission to share. I don't know about this, K. So I really don't know because I saw this yesterday, what is this new coin, right? Then he said, I just did it like usual, I routinely saw Bitcoin going down, why didn't it go down? Bitcoin is up in consolidation. But I think this forms an ascending triangle pattern. So I was just really new yesterday, yesterday afternoon, you could say that together

1:14:30 with other friends, there was also an open position at XPL. So try to hold today suddenly he ngepam. But I don't know I swear that it turns out that this is the intended ticket which actually became alpha during this Gofest event, why is this so strong? Let me try to explain, guys, our perspective can swing swing swing, how can you bet on a stable coin, the true narrative, stable coin USDT or USDC, right? These two USDC dominances are clear, you buy coins. Eh, CRCL coin circle has stock, they have IPO, they haven't, right? So, if you read the white paper,

1:15:17 this plasma is very, very affiliated with ee teher. Even though the tether logo is n't there, it's invested by Bitfenex, which is BitFenix, Tether's sister company, and the gas fe or function of this chain is entirely to be able to move tether for free, literally free at lightning speed . So, is this a single purpose only stable coin chain and what is the stable coin? USDT like that. Well, if you want to bet on stable coins, there are no tickers now in crypto, there are only good ones. Yesterday we talked about Enak because the good thing is that it is the only stable coin. Bye bye guys.