[홍장원의 불앤베어] 미국개미가 헤지펀드 이겼다. 머스크가 테슬라 찬양론자에 욕한 이유. 시장은 TACO 랠리를 보고 있다.

0:00 Well, if you look at the market today, you can see that it is a performance that is neither too bad nor too good, like a treasure certificate . However, Russell Richter still led the market up 0.66%. Nasdaq rose slightly, while the rest were flat with slight declines . I was a bit happy to see Tesla's rebound, which had been bad. The semiconductor stock market sentiment was not bad either . I talked about this top story in the last video. This rebound rally is one that Topley sees as being very hated by institutional investors. That's what I said. Because institutional investors can't afford it. Stocks. I said that I really hated this rebound because it was a rally that excluded period investors and that it was a rally that was driven by retail investors. This is now being revealed in numbers, but I think the

0:47 pressure and collective power of these ants is enormous even in the United States. If you look at this graph, it was in the first half of this year. U.S. individual investors invested $ 155.3 billion in a combination of individual stocks and ETFs . This is the highest ever recorded by the upper limit. In particular, if you look at it, the daily transaction volume has increased significantly compared to the previous year. This is also an all-time high. So, we were really, really smart and actively rebalancing by finding stocks that were rising here and there. This is what the story is about. If we look at it by item, NVIDIA bought the most NVIDIA, followed by Tesla, then SP 500, Palantir, and Nasdaq, and it appears that there has been a lot of buy-the-dip right now . What this graph shows is that

1:34 every time the SMP 500 fell by 1%, individual investors' net buying flowed in by an average of $100 million . This is the most anticipated 21-year ... If you invest so hard and the results aren't good, it would n't mean much. But if you follow the rising stocks while doing this kind of reversing diligently and buy them when institutional investors don't, the performance isn't that bad . Because as of the first half of 2025, the current individual portfolio yield is estimated at 6.2% 2%, slightly exceeding the SMP 500. The Nasdaq is slightly down. But now that the

2:21 analysis is out, based on the beginning of last year, that is, looking at the returns for a year and a half, individual investors ate 40%, Nasda+ 34%, and SMP 32%, which surpassed the index. And most of these hatch funds are outperforming the average performance by a significant margin. This analysis comes out. Ultimately, this means that during this period, many of the hedge funds were unable to make bold investments and failed to benefit from the bull market . Although it may not be as good as the index, individual investors have been jumping in boldly and have been making quite good profits since last year . This is how we can see it. Please note. Now, regarding tariffs, Trump imposed tariffs on most countries yesterday.

3:06 But since the tariffs take effect on August 1, this is effectively an extension of the negotiations . Looking at the market like this, the fact that there was no significant movement in the market today related to tariffs is likely largely due to the market's interpretation of it. Now the question is, is August 1st really the last day? This could be the crux of the matter . Trump's position on this is changing slightly now . Speaking to reporters Monday night, Trump said: August 1st is confirmed, but not 100% confirmed . It may vary depending on how each country imposes restrictions. He said this. How does this sound to you guys ? It is confirmed, but not 100% confirmed. Does it feel like a confirmed situation? Or does it feel flexible? It can be interpreted in a much more flexible way. So, this is why Trump feels like, oh, did I speak too weakly? I think I regret it like this

3:51 . So let me change the subject a bit for today, Tuesday. There is no change to this date and there will be no change in the future . In other words, all amounts must be paid from August 1, 25 years ago, and there is no extension. I'm writing it like this . In the end, if we try to negotiate with each country and get the maximum possible price by August 1st, it seems that the countries will not listen if we take a flexible stance. This is what Trump seemed to be thinking. So, you can see that I changed my position a bit to show a stronger side . What does the market think about this ? There is some opinion that this is the preciousness of this taco. So AJ Bell now Coachworth this guy is talking about the taco trade is back. As these talks continue, expectations are being reflected in the market that Trump

4:38 will ultimately back down from tariffs . The market continues to think Trump is bluffing. I think it would be good to note that there is this interpretation. There are several interpretations of why the letter was not received, but one interpretation is that it is virtually close to an agreement . This interpretation comes out. So, what I'm saying is that it's actually a good thing that I didn't receive it . Well, if you look at the analysis on CNBC right now, the diplomat said that Trump could send the letter later this week, and then there could be more time to lay out the framework for the agreement before that . After saying this, there are also reports that Executive Chairman Bundeo Ryan and Trump had a good conversation over the weekend. Also,

5:24 when you look at UBS's analysis, the reason they didn't receive the letter is that it suggests the agreement is imminent, which gives the market a sense of relief. Tariffs are expected to be largely settled at around the current effective rate of 15%, and are likely to be centered on industries such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and resources rather than on countries. This is how we analyze it. So what is it now? The big stem tariff dispute is the reason and China, when you look at it this way, China has already reached a first agreement . Negotiating with Reason is n't bad these days either. This is what the market sees, and we can see it that way. And now that it's come to this, and you look at the huge ripple effect it's having on the stock market, until recently, the situation between Iran and Israel

6:09 was actually a big variable. And after that, this is somewhat wrapped up, and tax cuts and tariffs are big issues right now, but as I said earlier, these issues are being wrapped up, and as for the tax cuts, the BBB issue has passed, and the tariff issue is currently in progress, so if the market interprets this in a positive way, does that mean all the concerns the market had are resolved? Well, if we really have to pick, there could be one more, and that is the immigration issue. This morning, Dallas Yeonwon has released a report, and we'll read it together now. Well, as you can see, the number of illegal immigrants is decreasing rapidly. In fact, illegal immigration is not simply an economic problem . There are many people who say that in terms of the side effects of crime and other things, it is creating significant problems in American society, and

6:56 that in order to make America a safer and more livable country, and a more sustainable country, we must eradicate it at any cost. I completely agree with this. But when you look at it from an economic perspective, the Dallas public opinion is that this GDP decline is unavoidable. Oh, this is the context of the report . As you can see now, as I said, the number of illegal immigrants is rapidly decreasing and the deportation of illegal immigrants is also taking place. So there are several scenarios, but if we add the current immigration crackdown, the illegal immigration crackdown, and the deportation of illegal immigrants, then in this very strong scenario, among the several scenarios, the

7:43 number of immigrants can decrease very quickly and drastically . There are several scenarios playing out right now . Of course, this is very good from an economic perspective, but the problem is that this is an increase in the number of immigrants, that is, an increase in illegal immigrants, and when you look at the GDP with tools like regression analysis, you see that even if it is illegal, if a lot of them come in, they provide cheap labor, so it has a positive effect economically. So, if you look at it, you can see that the GDP growth rate increases with illegal immigration, so there is an effect that goes up together in the beginning. If we put everything together and look at the conclusion, the GDP growth rate this year is expected to decrease by 0.81%, or 81 percentage

8:29 points, based on the basic scenario that this study is looking at, through this crackdown on illegal immigration. This is the base scenario. And if there are a lot of expulsions, this can go down to 1 percentage point. Since GDP is analyzed like this and has a continuous impact, it will have an impact until 2027, and if you substitute in some of the more negative scenarios among the various ones, GDP can be lowered by 1.49%. These results are the core of the current report. And when you look at the crazy impact on PCs, assuming a very bad situation this year and next year, this base scenario could have the effect of increasing by 0.15 percentage points this year, increasing by 0.18 percentage points, and increasing by 0.21 percentage points the year after

9:15 . The effectiveness of immigration enforcement is now at the heart of the report that opens with a bang. Ultimately, this is because the supply of immigrants has the effect of viewing the supply curve positively, so if this is cracked down on, it will be perceived as a negative shock, and as a result, the PC will rise . Anyway, Dallas City Yeonho is concerned about the long-term effects of immigration . I think it would be good to refer to this part. Let's get back to some more exciting news. I told you that Tesla's stock price recovered a bit today, and you are one of the main Tesla praise farmers. Dan Ives gave advice. My advice is that I think Tesla's board should take three steps:

10:00 Give Musk a new compensation package that gives him 25% equity, and then clear the way for this merger with XAI, and then in return, let's put some guardrails on how much time Musk is spending on Tesla . And let's have some oversight on Musk's political activities. That being said, number 1 isn't actually bad . Since Musk currently owns about 13% of Tesla, he will be given 25%. This is a very advantageous part for Musk. Also, the merger with XAI is now in progress . So if XAI and the two merge, Tesla, which is the political brother, will be the one raising the funds, and as a result, the funds will be used to develop Grok better,

10:47 and it will be good for Tesla shareholders . Since XAI is going under Tesla, it could be a background that can greatly increase Tesla's corporate value. What is this third thing ? Ultimately, this is Musk's company, so let's make this time more explicit and oversee it so that he can focus on Musk and Tesla . Unable to use for a certain period of time. In other words, I'm not saying that we shouldn't engage in political activities at all, but let's regulate it to some extent. Let's make this decision. This is the content, and Musk seems to be very upset. Who are you to say such things? Even though this was a story about Ives, who usually makes nice comments to Tesla and is a big fan of Tesla, you can see that he responded by saying, "Shut up, shut up, shut up

11:34 ." Please note. I'll end today's video with this. Please subscribe and like, and give lots of love to Telegram . thank you