Israel’s war on Iran - strategic analysis | MEE Live

0:00 Hello and welcome to ME Live. I'm Matilda Malinsson. It's Tuesday, the 3rd of March, 2026. Today we continue our daily live coverage of the regional war and we're looking at military strategies. Iran, the US, Israel. Which game plan wins? Here's the latest. The death toll from USIsraeli strikes on Iran has risen to 787 according to the Iranian Red Cresant. As the Israeli US war in Iran enters its fourth day, the Israeli military on Tuesday said it has deployed troops deeper into southern Lebanon beyond the five posts currently held by Israel, describing the move as part of an enhanced forward defense posture. The United Arab Emirates says Iranian attacks killed three people and wounded dozens as authorities detail the scale of aerial assaults targeting the

0:47 country. Here's a summary of everything you need to know about the war in Iran so far. Who's involved? The war began on Saturday morning when Israel and the US launched air strikes on Iran. Iran immediately fired retaliatory missiles towards US air bases across the Gulf. These have since expanded beyond US air bases and so far Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria Lebanon Jordan Cyprus Saudi

1:34 Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman have been caught in the crossfire. Hezbollah joined the fighting on Monday, launching rockets at Israel from bases in Lebanon. Israeli forces struck the capital Beirut and seized locations across the country's south. US allies are facing pressure from Trump to support military efforts. NATO Secretary General voiced full support for the US, but the UK has provided defensive support only and appeared to question the legality of the war. Many EU leaders remain similarly ambivalent. Trump has expressed dissatisfaction. China has also reiterated support for Iran's legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. That's a quote. while calling for an end of the US war and a return to negotiations. So why is this war happening? Unclear. The White House

2:20 called the initial strikes preemptive, but senior officials have struggled to justify this and given competing explanations about the imminent threat Iran apparently poses the US. US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have also called on Iranians to overthrow their government. But Trump has expressed ambivalence towards regime change and some of his officials have rejected this as a goal. Iran called the US and Israeli attacks unprovoked, illegal, and illegitimate. What kind of timeline are we looking at? Trump said he expects the war to last four weeks. He also said a matter of days. He also suggested a longer time frame and approved US participation for as long as necessary. What's the fallout so far? At least 787 Iranian civilians have reportedly been killed by USIsraeli air strikes,

3:06 including 176 children. That's according to the Iranian Red Cresant. Residents of Tehran have described an onslaught. Ayatalah Al-Hi Kamini, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed on the first day of a war. As you can see here, Iranians broke out in celebration, others broke out in mourning. Several senior military officials were killed with him. A threeperson leadership council will hold power until a new supreme leader is named. At least 11 Israeli civilians have been killed. Lebanese officials say dozens have been killed or injured. Eight is the official count from across Gulf States, but concerns have been raised over unreported migrant worker deaths. Six US servicemen have been killed in Iranian attacks and at least 18 are seriously wounded. Iran is under an internet

3:54 blackout, but footage has emerged from both Iran and Lebanon showing families displaced by the violence. Others are stranded. Washington has closed multiple embassies and urged Americans to leave much of the region, but much of the airspace remains closed and thousands of tourists are stuck. The UN's nuclear watchdog said one Iranian nuclear facility has been damaged. Infrastructure damage and uncertainty have sent oil prices soaring to their highest levels since June. Iran wields its power over the Strait of Hummus. The war threatens a global energy crisis. Today, we'll look at the key players game plans, Iran, the US, and Israel. How far will the boundaries of this war stretch? How long is it looking to go on? And how wide reaching could the consequences become? Up first, I'm

4:39 joined by ME's US correspondent, Sha Matthews. Sha, welcome to ME Live. Let's start with the apparently weaker side here. How is Iran looking to maneuver this war in their favor? >> Well, basically, thanks for having me on, Matilda. Basically, what Iran is trying to do is degrade the United States will to fight. And they think that their weak link is basically the Arab Gulf uh Arab Gulf monarchies. So, they're throwing everything they have uh at the UAE, at Kuwait, even Oman is getting hit. uh Saudi Arabia. There was a big strike uh last night on the US embassy in Riyad that I think took a lot of people for surprise. Um but basically Iran's objective is to is to degrade the United States will fight through through what they see as the weak link which is

5:25 the Gulf. They're also hitting key energy infrastructure. So just today uh Fujiro was hit. That's not only a port um in the UAE that's used to export oil uh seaborn crude, but it's also a key link in a a pipeline that um could avoid the straight of Hormuz. Yesterday uh senior adviser to the RGC said that Iran was closing the straight of Hormuz um you know the um insurance companies have already um canceled coverage for vessels going through there. So, so Iran is trying to hit the global economy um through energy prices and they're trying to hit the Gulf States basically to discourage um to kind of weaken the the the will to fight of the US hoping that the Gulf States will lobby Trump um clearly about um about you know stopping his attack. >> Yeah. And I guess I guess that lobbying has begun. So So is it working? Is

6:11 America feeling the pressure? Are the Gulf States struggling to hold out or or is the US willing and able to come to their aid? Well, I think we have to be careful with the Gulf States because this is what Iran wants, right? I mean, they see the Gulf as the weak link, but for the Gulf, it's a lot more nuanced than that. Um, the Gulf has been hit really bad, especially Qatar, Bahrain, UAE. Um, you know, these are countries that really prize themselves as kind of being bastions of stability. Um so there is a strand of thinking within the Gulf now that the the Gulfies have to join this offensive um and potentially underscore draw a red line with Iran because they have been hit so bad. Um I think the statements out ofQar yesterday really surprised a lot of people. Uh the Qatari spokesman was kind of you know taking a very um um you know forward position

6:59 that and um I think that that kind of statement um that we saw from the Kataris took a lot of people by surprise. So, so it's not very clear that the, you know, there's some reporting out there, um, that the Gulf States, um, you know, they're not comfortable with a ceasefire or a truce right now. Um, again, I don't think that they encouraged Trump on this attack. They clearly they were trying to prevent it. But, um, at this stage, the problem the Gulf faces is that having seen their aura of invincibility tarnished, what do they do? Do they, you know, do they kind of come in on the side of the US and join this offensive? Um, or do they lobby for an end to the the conflict? And again, it's not clear exactly whether even if they want to enter this conflict, whether they could um you know, sway Trump when he has Benjamin Netanyahu, you know, egging him onwards. >> Still, I suppose, you know, Donald

7:45 Trump's voter base is is pretty wary of what they've termed forever wars. And it would be in the US's interests uh to to make this as quick a war as possible. I know Trump's indicated they could go on, but it seems as though that become more and more politically damaging for him. Is there are there signs that Iran may be working to sort of drag this war out to to play the long game? Um whereas America's looking for a short game. >> I I think that's exactly what's happening. And Iran, they see themselves dictating um the the terms right now on the battlefield. Um you know, they it's a war of attrition basically between the US and Iran. And again, it's not the US mainland that is that is facing the brunt of the Iranian assaults. it is the the Arabian Gulf, but it's very much a war of attrition. And you know, we did a

8:31 piece yesterday, Matilda, um from very good sourcing about kind of the problem facing the Gulf States with their interceptor shortage. These are things like, you know, Patriot interceptors, THAAD interceptors that they need to shoot down, um Iranian ballistic missiles, but also, you know, the Gulf States have been using Patriot uh interceptors to shoot down um you know, really, you know, cheap shahid drones. Um and what we were told from multiple sources is that the US is basically stonewalling uh you know requests inquiries from the Arabian Gulf um to refill those interceptors. Um not because the US wants the Gulf to get hit, but because the US simply doesn't have the supplies to refill them. And of course their priority is going to be to defend uh Israel. Um so so basically the Iranians are betting that they can hold out, they can outlast the Gulf um and that they can drain their supplies of of

9:17 of interceptors. Um because if those supplies run out, basically the entire Arabian Gulf coastline is going to be open to uh Iran Shahed drones. They wouldn't even need ballistic missiles. Um and and I think that is the Iranian strategy exactly to drag this war out, deprive Trump of a quick victory, which I think Iran has already achieved at this stage. Um you know, Trump did not get his quick victory. Um there is no real push that we're seeing in the streets of Iran to topple the government. Um, you know, there have been some reporting out there that Trump is trying to work with ethnic and minorities to, uh, get under the Iranian uh, government skin. Uh, he had a call with Kurdish officials in the wider Middle East, but um, yeah, the Iranians are betting that they can outlast the US for sure. >> Shouldn't the US have anticipated that this was going to be Iran's game plan? I mean, what can we tell about the US's

10:03 strategy in the face of of of this approach by Iran? Well, Matilda, I think this is the the ironic thing for for journalists, for diplomats, uh for just interested watchers, is that in in one way, it's a lot easier to discern what Iran's strategy is at this stage than it is the United States. Um it's really not clear what the US is trying to achieve at this stage. Um Trump is, as you were saying earlier, you know, he's floated with regime change, then he backed off the idea of regime change. Then there are reports that he's looking for um Iranian opposition groups um and Kurdish um Kurdish groups to potentially enter the frey, potentially ferment civil unrest in Iran. Um but the US game plan is is not clear. And I think one of the statements that really stood out to me yesterday um was a report that I saw where Trump was telling journalists that

10:49 he was surprised by the response that we saw from Iran targeting the Arabian Gulf. Um I mean I think you know I spoke with two Gulf diplomats. I've been in touch with a lot of sources in the Gulf and that just really threw people for a loop because you know the Gulf states Saudi Arabia Qatar uh um you know especially Oman they were warning the US for for a year now um since June 2025 that you know a massive strike on Iran would lead to you know serious repercussions against the Gulf with drone and missile attacks. Not only that but the Iranians warned about that publicly. So you know Trump saying that he was surprised uh by how much the Gulf has just gotten smashed by these Iranian attacks. Um, I think really underscores for a lot of people the lack of a a clear US strategy here. Um, and not thinking this out uh very deeply at all.

11:34 >> Is it is it a ridiculous thing to say, hey, is this all just one big distraction from the Epstein files? >> Uh, you know, Matilda, there there's a lot of reasons why why someone would go to war. And I am uh, you know, I am not uh it's very difficult. It's a dangerous game trying to get into Trump's head. But I think that, you know, for sure that is one argument, you know, that a lot of people are making is that he wanted a distraction. But, you know, I mean, I guess the counterpoint to that would be, you know, I guess he thought that he could pull off a very quick regime change. Um, you know, he was very emboldened by Venezuela. A lot of the analysts were saying that he saw that as a victory. Um, and he thought he could replicate that in Iran. But again, even the most basic analysis from, you know, US intelligence agencies, from the State Department would be that Iran is not Venezuela. you know, I mean, this is

12:20 what all the analysis was saying. Um, that you cannot implicate regime change in in Iran the same way that he did it with Maduro, right? This is an Islamic republic. Um, this deep institutions. Um, it's very much tied, you know, to to to religion. It's not like you you take out Maduro. Um, and then you can find a Delio Rodriguez kind of a puppet to to replace to replace the ruler. Um, so it's it's really really confusing a lot of people how Trump fell for this um you know this uh this conflict. Um and it seems to be just hubris honestly uh from the US president. Clearly >> Sean Matthews, thank you so much for joining us on ME Live. And now before we shoot to our next guest where we'll be looking closely at Israel, I just have a couple of clips from the Trump administration that demonstrates that point. Um maybe we'll just for the sake

13:07 of time play our Marco Rubio clip, but this is relevant I think particularly for this discussion because when Trump made his statement about the strikes on Iran on Saturday, he said that this war was being fought in defense of the American people. Um we have also, as Sean mentioned, had strong messages that this war will, you know, liberate Iranians, is being fought for the sake of Iranians to rise up against an autocratic government. Um, however, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio implied that America's call for going to war was not necessarily made for the American people, nor for the Iranian people. Instead, he indicated that the US was all but forced to act by Israel. He >> we knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces and we knew that if we didn't

13:52 preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties. So, is Israel the driving force behind this war? If so, why? And what is their game plan? I'm joined now by Alon Pinkas, Israeli diplomat and author. Um, Alon, thank you so much for joining us today. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tried for decades to get successive US presidents to join him in attacking Iran. For him, this has been a plan a long time in the making. So, Israel, is Israel ready for what's coming? Um, what can we expect of Israel's strategy in the war? >> Well, I don't know that there is a strategy and you're absolutely right, Matilda, that uh that Mr. Netanyahu has for uh for decades uh tried to uh prod

14:40 convince, swindle, con manipulate, and dupe American presidents into action. By the way, uh um he he also changes his mind. I mean, he was he was pressuring um then President Barack Obama to uh to sign a deal with Iran only to object viciferously to the deal once a deal was uh agreed to in 2015. He in fact went behind the president's back and spoke to Congress in March of 2015 against the deal. And then he did the same with uh Donald Trump uh um fir during Donald Trump's first term um convincing him being at least one of the uh reasons pushing Trump toward unilaterally withdrawing from that

15:25 agreement in May of 2018. And Netanyahu made a bogus claim based on unfounded u evidence that uh once you withdraw from the deal and once you impose even further crippling sanctions quote unquote then the Iranians will come crawling begging for a new deal. Well that didn't happen. Then last June, June of 2025, a mere eight months ago, uh Netanyahu convinced Trump to join or or uh colludes uh um in an attack on Iran uh which was not provoked in terms of the US but was definitely uh justifiable from an Israeli point of view. We can argue the merits of that of those

16:11 justifications, but there was a logic to it. Yet the US joined um with Trump making a condition that in exchange for America's involvement and uh um assistance um Israel would end the war in Gaza. Netanyahu said, "No problem. Don't worry about it. I got this." And he didn't. Um it was only in September of 2025 following a failed Israeli attack against Hamas in Doha, the capital of Qatar, >> uh that that there was a ceasefire negotiated by Trump by the way. And here we are fast forward into uh February uh well late February, early March 2026 and Netanyahu apparently succeeded in

16:58 manipulating Trump into joining the war. Now, this is where the two uh diverge. I mean, we're looking at a joint effort. We're only on the fourth day of this war, Matilda. So, I don't want to be uh uh premature, and I don't want to say things that may uh um evolve or the dynamics would work against what I'm saying. But right now, while Israel is still at least ostensibly committed to regime change, although I don't know how uh um you're going to affect regime change through missiles and airplanes, that hasn't happened before, except in one case, very rare case, very peculiar and unique case, Japan in 1945 that essentially surrendered after aerial attacks, but only only Matilda

17:45 when there was a credible uh uh threat of land invasion and following two atomic bombs. >> Wow. >> That is obviously not the nowhere else in history um in modern history of course um did did an outside power Israel in this respect and the US um induce regime change in Iran. So Isra in in in with aerial power. So in this case in Iran, Israel is trying to do that or at least severely weaken Iran. So where's the divergence? The US has no vested interests in this war. Um, the US, unlike what Secretary Rubio said, the US was not threatened by Iran. The uh the the the idea or the notion or the premise that Iran was

18:31 developing missiles that could hit the US is bogus. That doesn't mean that Iraq is that I'm now sounding like an American diplomat. That Iran um um Yeah, I can hear you laughing. Um, >> I just like I just like the reference. >> There's absolutely >> I know there there's absolutely no uh u you know no evidence that the Iranians were developing such weapons. Now that doesn't make Iran a good actor. In fact, Iran is a bad actor and no one is uh shedding uh tears uh with the uh departure of Supreme Leader Ali Kami. And no one wants regime change more than than uh people inside Iran. Yet you're

19:17 not going to do this from the air. >> No, that's which is where this >> it's really that's a really actually really interesting timeline. I don't didn't know sort of the the um example of Japan or the details of the example of Japan, but I do of course know many examples of of where it hasn't worked. what you've really painted there is is actually quite an erratic looking policy on Israel's part when it comes to Iran and um of course you've mentioned like Netanyahu a lot involved in those in those sort of confusing maneuvers and I wonder then is this a war um by Israel or a war by Netanyahu and and I'm also I asked this in the context of there are there are elections in Israel this year Netanyahu really has to sort of ramp up support he's he's been really compromised politically by by the

20:02 preceding years during the Gaza war or the genocidal war on Gaza by Israel. We were told um many times by commentators that this was a sort of essential war for Netanyahu's well-being uh politically that he was prolonging prolonging the law was war was in his interest and I wonder is that the case with Iran as well? What do you think? >> Absolutely. But but to be fair, um this has been Netanyahu's uh u you know, resz on detra is his uh uh um number one policy, his his obsession, if you will. Um even before he got into political and legal uh trouble. So So in his defense, quote unquote, you could say that he's

20:48 consistent. He may be wrong. I mean, we can argue about that. He may be wrong in his perception of Iran. and it goes to a philosophical uh um understanding of Jewish history. We don't have time to go into that, but he's, you know, he's in the he believe he's a very gloomy, pessimistic, darkish uh uh personality politically, Mr. Netanyahu that is. >> And he he actually believes that what he calls Islamop fascism is the next threat, existential threat uh um to Jewish civilization and and the state of Israel. Now, I think he's wrong, but he but but but there is merit and logic to uh uh what he's saying on this interpretation. But back back to your um initial question or remark. Look, what

21:34 we have here is a very unique case of two wag the dogs. I mean, a double wag the dog. There is there is Trump that wants to deflect from the Epstein files, the Supreme Court decision on on on tariffs and his poll standing and the and the upcoming midterm election elections plural in for Congress in November. And then there's Mr. Netanyahu who has his own legal problems. He's standing trial for three counts of uh corruption, bribery, obstruction of justice and so on and also faces as you correctly pointed out an election. But there's something even more uh um important or dominant here. >> Mr. Netanyahu is responsible for the

22:20 worst debacle and catastrophe in Israeli history. That is the 7th of October 2023. This is a guy who boasted that he's Mr. for terrorism, that he's Mr. Fh war on terrorism, that he's Mr. Security, that under his watch, you don't you don't see Israel compromising and and incurring terrorism because he's strong and he projects uh power. Nonsense. He was the prime minister on the worst day in Israel's history, October 7, 2023. Why am I bringing this up? Because turning that catastrophe, turning that calamity into some kind of a strategic triumph. Hey, look at me. I've just remodeled the Middle East. I've just altered the landscape of the Middle East. I've just

23:06 improved Israel's uh uh geopolitical standing uh um you know, exponentially. for him that would be a complete change of the narrative that would allow him to walk into the election saying, "Look what the the upcoming election in 2026, I mean later in 2026." Um, and so what you have here is a rare case of of two leaders. One who has no vested interest in Iran, that's Trump, and one who has an almost, sorry to use that term again, existential in this respect, political rather than uh military or security. um a a a an existential political political interest in doing this. Now, the Israeli public is much more attuned to what's going on in Iran because, you know, 15

23:51 years of Netanyahu as prime minister, people have been conditioned. You can argue uh um with a good you make a good case and argue that they have been brainwashed on the issue of Iran. Again, notwithstanding that doesn't mean that Iran does not pose a threat. Iran is is is is a bitter nemesis. Iran keeps on saying that they'd like to eradicate Israel. Iran built a network of proxy terror organization. It funded it armed the worst actors in the Middle East. There's no question about that. The issue is do you do you go to war and do you risk what you just uh uh Matilda what you just showed uh uh Secretary of State Rubio say? Uh, do you risk uh the wrath of Americans saying Israel dragged us into a war which we vowed we MAGA

24:39 Republicans, we Trumpist, we vowed we would never go in again. And and Democrats who who are are I'm sorry who are already suspicious of of Israel since uh the war in Gaza. So in that respect I I see the the strategy here diverging because the main issue here is the duration of the war. You alluded to it in your previous convers conversation with Shan. Um although that was specific about the Gulf States being uh uh can they sustain this in terms of their the availability of munitions and their staying power? Okay. But there's also a question here. >> I'm afraid I'm gonna have to just sustain I'm gonna have to wrap up, but give us your final your final closing question.

25:25 >> Can Israel sustain it? >> That was my final. >> There you go. Can Israel sustain it? Along >> can Israel sustain? Yes, but not without the US, which is where uh any difference of opinion or any divergence uh becomes critical. >> Alan Pinkas, thank you so much for offering us that window into what's happening inside Israel and inside the Israeli government. And that today is all that we have time for. But before we lose you, we would love to hear from you. Please send in your thoughts and questions to Middle East on any social platform or email me east.net. We'll be here at 5:00 p.m. GMT, noon in New York every Tuesday and Thursday. See you then.