美 채권왕이 준 힌트 : 미국 장기채 기회 일까?

0:00 Rick Ryder, Black's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, gave this interview. The low interest rate era ended in 2022, and he said he had been waiting for a deal for the past 20 years. But then he said that bond interest rates are a once-in-a-generation opportunity. By the way, this guy named Ringrider runs a Czech company at BlackRock that is worth $2 trillion. So, it's over 3 trillion won in Korean currency. So, since he is a person who is handling a huge amount of money, it is quite acceptable for him to say what he said. What I was talking about was that bonds are a once-in-a-generation opportunity. I 'll explain in more detail later, but first, bond interest rates fell in the past as we entered a long-term low-interest-rate era, and then after COVID-19, as liquidity was supplied and inflation rose, interest rates were

0:46 raised and long-term interest rates also rose. And then recently, we've seen a sideways movement like this, and inflation is falling . Interest rates were raised because prices were rising, but now prices are falling, but interest rates are not falling . If we zoom in a little bit, the blue colored COP21 is the most crucial indicator that the Federal Reserve uses to determine interest rates. And now the red is the 10-year US Treasury yield. Although the trend is continuing downward, long-term interest rates remain high. So, since the gap is widening, it is time for the gap to narrow again . Looking at it now, the current price level is slightly higher than that of 2017-2018. For your reference, what you're looking at is that in 2020, when the Fed

1:32 was providing liquidity, prices went up like crazy. At this time. So what I'm trying to say is that the composition of prices today is different. Well, service prices account for about 60% of the total cost of living in the United States . So, if you look at the prices of services, the overall prices in the United States are staying at around this level, and the prices of services account for 60% of the total prices, which is what it is now. So, prices should be lower now, but because service prices are still high, the overall average price is only slightly higher. Excluding service prices, prices related to actual consumption should be considerably lower . Within the service price index, housing prices now account for about 60% of the service price index. Housing prices account for about 30, 33, or 34% of the total cost of living, and the

2:18 overall cost of living in the United States is staying there, but housing prices, which account for the largest portion of service prices, remain too high, so direct costs are expensive, and rents are expensive, so prices are currently high and not falling. If it weren't for the direct price, the current price level would be like this. Let's look at an example. There's a new car now . New vehicle car. New car prices are currently fluctuating between minus and 0% . So prices aren't going up anymore because people aren't buying like crazy as they used to . The prices of goods do not rise . It's around this time in 2017 or 2019 , right now. Now, the prices of goods. If you look at the prices of goods excluding food and energy, it's about the same as now. It's almost like it's turning from minus to plus, similar to 2017 and 2019. Shall we look at the prices of clothing? It's

3:05 going into the negative now, and prices are deflating, and if you look at 2017 and 2019, it's similar. Okay, let's look at the energy. Similar. Energy, on the other hand, was actually positive in 2017 and 2018, but now it is negative. It's deflation. Would you like to see medical care products ? Almost 0%. yes. If you look at 2017, it was actually maintained at a higher level. Let's look at food prices . The only thing that is currently moving in a similar manner to the average CPI. So, what I'm trying to say is that ultimately, the prices of non-essential consumption, which is what people spend their money on, are either negative, 0%, or hovering around 1% . But just because the CPI is currently in the mid-2% range, it doesn't mean we can

3:51 completely accept it as being the same level as in the past . It is necessary to note that this is not a situation where people are going crazy and trying to spend money, but rather a situation where actual inflation is in the 1% range or even going negative, and the reason why prices are not going down now is because of the housing prices that account for such a large proportion . Oh, the reason why housing prices are rising like crazy right now is because, since liquidity was released in 2020, housing prices in almost every state in the US, including Hawaii and California, have been rising like crazy. In the past, the second bubble was much higher than the first housing bubble, and the housing prices rose to such high levels that Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, New York, and Miami all

4:38 formed a huge direct price bubble. So, yes, when housing prices become expensive, rents naturally go up. The difference between our country and the US is that in our country, there is a jeonse system, so in reality, the demand for monthly rent may not be that great . But since the US doesn't have a mortgage system, what happens to the interest on a new home loan when house prices rise ? We need to cover it. In the end, the rent is bound to become more expensive . So the monthly rent is maintained at around 5 to 6% of the house price. The ratio of median rent to median home price remains at 56% . So, as the price of houses goes up, rent also goes up, and that's why the housing prices remain high. yes. As house prices rise like this, the multiple of house prices compared to people's income, annual income,

5:23 was only twice in the past, and during the time of the sub-line mortgage, it was four times, but now it has risen to about six or seven times. As house prices rise, rents also rise, and the current level of rent is that the ratio of rent to median income is almost at the level of 45% of monthly income. Uh, so when house prices go up, rental power goes up, so naturally, people's spending power decreases, and so even if you look at 2019 alone, the proportion of rent in total income was around 30%, but now it's over 40%. It's probably gone up more now. In fact, if you look at the proportion of housing prices in the U.S. price index, it is rising so steeply that it accounts for almost 36.7% . It's gotten so much higher than it used to be. This has to come down, prices have to come down, house prices have to come down, and eventually, the overall prices can come down.

6:10 This is the summary. The overall inflation rate is around this level, but the composition is that housing prices are high, so in fact, excluding housing prices, all other prices are staying at around 1%. We need to refer to this. So, the Fed should be hitting only this guy instead of hitting him, but it's keeping interest rates high right now in an attempt to catch this guy and catch this guy too . Because originally, since this guy was coming down, it would have been okay to lower interest rates, but now, there is some concern because of the influence of Trump hitting each other's offices . Due to concerns that the price might be canceled, we have decided to wait and see for now . So, we are

6:55 watching this closely, knowing that it will have an impact on this as well, and we are focusing on the housing prices right now. The Fed. So the Fed has these controls . When a homebuyer takes out a loan from a bank to buy a house, and the loan is secured by the house, the bank continues to work, and the bank's granary is empty, so the banks bundle up bonds and sell them to investors under the securities. Then, they securitize the loan and secure the money again, and then lend it to other people to make more money. But for this to continue, the number of MBS investors must continue to increase, and the largest single investor in MBS in the United States is the Federal Reserve. It's almost the same as all the banks combined. But the Fed started to reduce the amount of MBS on a large scale after 2022 because the housing prices were too high . So

7:44 what happens to the banks when the liquidity of these bonds is blocked? It is also becoming difficult for banks to provide loans. why? Ultimately, since the avenue for banks to liquidate their loans is blocked, banks have no choice but to keep their interest rates high and demand higher interest rates when providing mortgage loans. Right? So, what they're saying is that people will live there later, and housing prices will gradually be controlled. why? When demand decreases, there are naturally many sources of supply, but because demand decreases, the sale price goes down, and when the sale price goes down, the sale price of new construction goes down, and eventually the price of built-up construction also goes down. So, with the introduction of housing price control, there could also be adjustments to rental prices, right? Would n't that lower housing prices? And the point is that if housing prices, which account for more than 30% of the total, fall, then the overall prices will also fall . Oh, and

8:31 by the way, oil prices are actually fluctuating in the middle, but if you look at the pattern, they are continuing to fall in the long term. The possibility of stable prices like this is gradually emerging. Because, in fact, even before the May prices came out, there were many concerns about tariffs, about these high real tariffs, but in reality, the May prices were not canceled as much as expected, and the reason is that existing companies had imported large quantities of inventory in advance through January, February, and March, so prices may not rise while using this yogurt, and that is why the Fed wants to watch this cold weather . Until around September. And now, I'm going to give you some background. Earlier, I mentioned that the CIO, who runs BlackRock's global bond operations, said something like this. He

9:26 said that bond was a rare, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, a once-in-a-generation opportunity. He also said this. AI will lower inflation. Why did you say that? Now, I searched the internet for some evidence, and found a report written by BIS in 2024. It said that with the introduction of AI, the areas where we can expect the most productivity and efficiency are manufacturing and healthcare. At such a high percentage, what kind of efficiency improvement can we make? So, we 're talking about something like, you can have high expectations for productivity and things like that. We've just talked about how we can boost productivity . So, the reason this BlackRock bond CIO is doing this is that by using AI to automatically capture quantities or increase production efficiency,

10:14 even if the price of raw materials goes up due to tariffs, AAI will actually lower inflation by improving production efficiency by manufacturing and delivering them quickly . So, I think this is the view that this person is seeing right now. So, because of these things, we now see that the Fed will eventually continue to cut interest rates, and as a result, prices are falling, but long-term interest rates or the base rate are not falling. But what happens if the benchmark interest rate starts to come down after seeing that inflation is not soaring ? There is a high possibility that long-term interest rates will naturally fall as well . So, Blackluck's CIO, Lee Ryder, who is now the head of investment, said this during an interview on June 30th, saying that bond yields are a once-in-a-generation opportunity

11:01 . If you look at why I said that, here is my opinion, but it's a 20-year bond with a high interest rate of 5% for a long period of time . The opportunity to invest in bonds that offer a stable 5% interest rate for 20 years is a rare opportunity in an era of low interest rates . This person already had this opportunity in 2010-2011, right? Since we have already experienced the low interest rate era, when the low interest rate era comes again, that is, when interest rates fall again and become low, it is evaluated that there will not be many opportunities to invest in bonds that provide a stable interest rate of 5% for a long period of 20 years, such as the current 5%

11:49 . And now, in the era of high-interest rates, when both long-term and short-term bonds are giving 5%, and there is a reversal in the short-term and long-term bonds, the high-interest short-term bonds are actually a short-lived sweetness. From the time interest rates start to fall, high-quality short-term bonds are actually a temporary sweetness, and when interest rates fall, these also fall sharply. So what's left from then on is high-interest, long-term bonds. However, if you are planning to hold a high-interest long-term bond for 20 years, it is an opportunity to receive high interest rates in the 5% range for 20 years, and if you miss this opportunity, you may not be able to seize this opportunity again . So, I think that's what they're saying now, that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

12:35 And now, if you think about it from the government's perspective, and from the perspective of those issuing these national bonds, short-term borrowings currently account for more than 21%, and this will continue to rise. And if the interest rate doesn't go down now, and the Trump administration passes the tax cut bill this time, the only option when interest rates are high is to short-term bond issuance. But with short-term loans, the burden of repaying the principal and interest continues to return. You have to keep turning it around. So, it's a lot of pressure. And especially, the United States, from 2024 to 2025, has been continuously printing and issuing short-term bonds, and is now completely dependent on short-term bonds . Most of the bonds currently being issued are like that. If we look at the current US Treasury issuance by type and institution, short-term bonds have increased significantly recently,

13:22 while long-term bonds have either decreased issuance or not increased at all. But how long will the government continue issuing short-term bonds like this? Well, because short-term loans have the issue of repaying both principal and interest that must be continuously turned over, but long-term loans only require the principal to be paid after 20 years, so there is no burden as only interest must be paid over the 20 years. So, think about it, you guys. I bought an apartment, but I'm worried about what I should do if I continue to have to pay the principal and interest every day . yes. yes. That's the content. So now, MMFs are continuing to pour in short-term funds and are waiting in the market. MMF is a short-term fund. So, there are about $6 trillion worth of Treasury bonds in the United States right now. $6 trillion is almost exactly the same as the current short-term Treasury holdings in the United States. 6 trillion dollars. So what

14:08 I'm talking about now is that short-term funds are 100% MMFs. Most of them now. And the short-term funds are currently being raised through MMF, and the investment funds are being raised. But these are the guys who are running that short-term MMF. Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, Vanguard, JP Morgan, these are the guys, and right now at Blackrock, the top global bond investment CIO is managing over 2 trillion dollars, 3 trillion won. I'm looking at this guy in the future. That's what they're talking about . There will be no more opportunities to receive 5% interest rates for a long period of time . Now that we're talking about that, these people will gradually start to make money. Well, since I have nowhere to go right now, I 'm just waiting here, but when the opportunity arises, there's a good chance I'll be able to gradually move to a market with opportunities . I think so, and that's why this person,

14:55 in an interview with CNBC on February 30th, said, "Oh, the era of low interest rates is over in 2022, and I've been waiting for a deal for the past 20 years," and he did n't go into specifics about what it was or why he was doing it. But the truth is that waiting for a certain deal is only a long-term one. So now I think it might be time to talk about that . So this guy is now at a once-in-a-generation opportunity for bond yields . I think we're talking about this now, and now the Fed is taking action to ease SLR regulations for large banks, which is creating a lot more anticipation . For example, if a large bank previously purchased government bonds with a capital ratio, this would also be included as risk exposure and

15:45 calculated as a decrease in the capital ratio, so banks were reluctant to purchase government bonds. However, even considering that the SLR regulation directly reflects government bonds, the minimum capital ratio that corporate banks must have will be relaxed. I will raise it. Then banks will have more room to do things like extend more loans or invest in government bonds . So, in terms of this kind of regulatory relaxation, the attractiveness of the government bond market increases. Right now, BlackRock is showing some similar movements to what the BlackRock bond CIO just said . And the United States is now having a hard time absorbing its national debt from foreign investors. Because the U.S. is currently issuing almost 3.6 trillion 36 trillion in national bonds. $36 trillion. Oh, so it's over 4 trillion won . But foreigners can only

16:32 buy about 6 trillion dollars. So, since 2010, the bond market supported by foreigners has ended. Now, since 2010, the market has shifted to a US market that can only be sustained by purchases from domestic investors, the Federal Reserve, and individuals . Foreigners can no longer keep up with the increase in government debt . What was it just now? What did I say earlier? MMF. MMF is currently under the jurisdiction of this institution, and MMF accepts all short-term loans . So the long-term ones were foreigners, the Fed, and individuals, right? But now, foreigners are still buying, but they cannot bear the burden of this entire consumption . Then, in the end, the government will relax the SLR regulations for large banks and institutions, and say, "Hey, you guys, buy some government bonds now." It's

17:17 no longer okay to be a foreigner. I think foreigners and foreign institutions should buy some. This is what I'm doing now. That's why the government is releasing this policy so that people can buy more . And if you look at it from 2010 onwards, the proportion of foreign investors holding American assets has decreased while the proportion of domestic investors has increased significantly. From that point on, the government bond market had already begun to shift towards a domestic-centric market, and as interest rates fall, the attractiveness of investing in short-term bonds will gradually decrease. Because interest rates are going down. If interest rates go down, then short-term interest rates will also fall, and eventually, short-term interest rates will be a temporary sweetness, and if large banks start thinking, "What can give me an interest rate of 5% for 20 years?", then they can increase purchases of long-term interest rates. yes. If that happens, then if Yeonju has almost completely reduced its position and is

18:03 barely changing its position, then from then on, there is a scenario where the purchase of long-term bonds within institutions, especially large banks, increases, and large banks sell down these to individuals and increase the proportion of individuals, and the attractiveness of long-term bonds increases further . And if the government bond market is formed around domestic investors like this, then it will become like Japan. In Japan, too, from 2011 to 2012, when national debt was rapidly increasing, the BOJ suddenly began to drastically increase the amount of Japanese government bonds it purchased . So, since there was no demand from foreigners at that time, the Bank of Japan started to frantically accept demand and started controlling and manipulating bond interest rates and

18:49 taking such actions. And now, I said that opportunities like this will be rare, as the US Treasury has maintained an attractive interest rate of 5% for 20 years . But this has to be the case. Look at our country's government bond interest rates . Our country's long-term interest rate is staying here, and the US's long-term interest rate is staying here. The gap is already close to 1.5%. So, would you be interested in the United States, a stable country with a reserve currency, offering an interest rate of 5% for 20 years? Or, if you think about whether to invest in our country's long-term bonds that continue to fall, things will change. So, didn't the CIO of Blackluck say something like that earlier? Because the attractiveness increases. So, to summarize, the U.S. long-term bonds currently have higher interest rates than other countries,

19:38 and they are an opportunity to receive high interest for a long time, while short-term bonds are only sweet for a short time, so ultimately, MMF funds have to move somewhere. Besides, the government says that big banks can now buy government bonds. Hey, you guys, we're going to ease regulations, so buy some government bonds and stuff. In order to do this, the S regulation relaxation was passed on June 25th, and now we are gathering public opinion on it and plan to implement it finally around the end of the year . So, in the end, all that's left is for prices to remain at their current level, and I think we can consider this scenario . Right now, among institutions, MMFs, as I said earlier, are buying $6 trillion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds. And the long-term bonds are ultimately highly dependent on foreign Feds.

20:25 The conclusion is that the current structure has to be the one that leads to increased demand for short-term bonds. The reason is that Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, which raised concerns about rising prices. And the Fed also froze high interest rates after seeing these concerns. Because of this, there is a thought that prices could go high and high interest rates could last a long time, so long-term bond interest rates are not coming down from the 5% range, so there is a risk if you invest here . So, for now, the demand for short-term loans is concentrated . But, but going forward, the government is gradually concluding tariff negotiations one by one, and it has also concluded with China, so now it is inviting a war of attrition, so now only Europe and Japan are left. The big countries. And now, rather than that,

21:10 prices in May are not rising because of the existing imports and their inventory . Prices in May won't rise, so we'll have to wait and see what prices in June will be, but on July 15th, yes. But if inflation is not canceled this time, the pressure for inflation will fall, which means that Yeonju can resume interest rate cuts. If that happens, when bond interest rates fall again, the attractiveness of short-term bonds, which are only temporary, will fall from then on, and from now on, the demand for long-term bonds that provide long-term bonds for 20 years will increase. From then on, institutions that were focusing on short-term bonds will be

21:57 able to increase demand for long-term bonds. If that happens, the United States, which was focusing on short-term bond issuance, will be able to reduce short-term bond issuance and increase long-term bond issuance again. That's what I'm talking about. If that happens, the interest burden will eventually decrease as the national bond interest rate falls, so wouldn't the interest expenditure ratio relative to tax revenue also decrease again ? Ultimately, this is probably the direction the government wants. Now let's look at it this way. So, what's important now is ultimately policy, and we need to look at essential indicators like interest rates, prices, and employment. And now that the SLR deregulation has actually been passed, when it goes into full effect after social convergence around the end of the year, demand will increase again. The demand for national security. And now the outcome of the tariff negotiations will be important again. Because Europe and Japan are still in the

22:43 process. Well, I think there will be some sort of consensus before July 9th, and especially in the case of Japan, it's not easy to make a decision now because there's another election on July 22nd. So, I think there is a possibility that they will take on the nuance of reluctantly following the US after the election because they could lose for no reason by keeping their tails between them before the election. And in the case of Europe, when China fought with the US in tariff negotiations, they saw that China eventually lowered tariffs to a level that was advantageous to them, so I think that Europe may also benchmark China and come out strong against the US, which could give the market a brief surprise. So, these are the issues that need to be checked, and if these are ultimately resolved, it means that

23:29 interest rates will be lowered, bond yields will fall, and relatively, if interest rates are lowered, the dollar will weaken, and related beneficiaries may emerge one by one . So now, we are seeking out these opportunities through ASEAN Pass membership and conducting studies together. It's been about a month since we started, and there are a lot of good black people, so if you're interested, you might want to look into ASEAN Pass's pending membership .