NASDAQ 100 / Elliott Wave Daily Update 3/19/2026 by Michael Filighera

0:02 Good afternoon. This is the Elliot Wave daily update for the NASDAQ 100 being recorded on Thursday, March the 19th at 4 2:20 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time. Uh the market did both today. Gave us a little bit of both, but it reached that low within the first half hour of trade this morning. So what started kind of just before the opening only lasted through the opening and then basically we spent the balance of the day just kind of bouncing around uh coming back down giving it a test coming back down thinking we're going to break back down again and then getting a big boost. um a lot of preparation I believe for

0:47 tomorrow's expiration which as I spent I mentioned last night uh via the S&P was quite quite up there in dollar amount and so I think a lot of that probably has been adjusted yesterday and today so maybe the total the total nominal value of the expiration has shifted uh because we had uh a large move yesterday and a large move again today and What usually happens, it's it's dealers, it's institutions, and they're just getting ready for that expiration. Markets get moved around, gamma levels get get tackled, uh positions get closed, changed, um traded out. So, all of that in prep for tomorrow. So again,

1:35 the total value that I last saw was close to it was over a um a billion and I think it was actually even higher than that which is it was a no matter what it's a large sum of money and that's kind of a just not necessarily a sign of health in the market but it's a sign of money that's in the market and so we're not seeing where money is running and fleeing. There's plenty of things to trade and there's plenty of ways to get it done and that's kind of what I'm seeing. So, there's still a great deal of trade happening and that's the good news. And so, I hear people through the comments and Greg, you're right up there on the list that they

2:21 have an opinion, they have a position, they're running the position, but in the meantimes they're using their trading skill and they're trading the moves and doing so. They might have a core position that requires a much larger move down and that is in the process. Um, and in between we have a lot of really great rallies and moves. So, there are ways to continue to make money. So, I applaud you, Greg. I think it's really great that you're doing that. Um, just be kind on the on the one side as far as I think it's like we need to be kind to each other because there going to be people that still are holding a bullish bias and every time they hear somebody being bearish they want to say no no you're just absolutely 100% wrong. It's like not necessarily

3:06 not necessarily. So I think it's like well let's be kind. Everybody has a position and I really hope that everybody makes money with their positions and with their trading. That's the whole goal here, not to watch somebody be better than somebody else or somebody calling it better. It's like it's are you trading it? Are you being well? Are you trading it well and you're making money at the end of the day? It's okay with by me. So, and we will have differing differing differing opinions. Back to the NASDAQ, I think that what we are remaining within is still I favor actually both that we either are all done or that we still are going to come upon this minute fourth wave that's going to get shifted over. Let me just

3:52 flip out to the daily. I'll show you. It really is still alive. And uh not that I want to talk about favorite or say, you know, that whoever, you know, it's like I think we all brought it to our own attentions, but there are those along with me that have carried it um when I didn't. And so I've taken it off and put it back on, but now it's kind of just hanging there and sticking to it because the pattern actually is now feeling like it's coming to a conclusion, at least this portion of it. And because we're just in this higher area of the whole market and our all of our trading over the last two or three years. So that's the other deal. So again, while I may be waiting for this

4:38 whole box to shift, we may come in and find our low for this minute fourth wave and then shoot higher in a minute fifth wave here in the NASDAQ. likely a minute wave two in the S&P all of those. So they all, you know, they're going to move in the same direction at the same time and under the same count pretty much. So same thing here with NASDAQ and the Q's. I would be looking for likely the Q's are going to lead the charge in terms of gamma in terms of, you know, breaking volatility triggers, breaking above call walls and things of that nature. But here's what I really do believe. If it is going to come in as a

5:23 as a minute fourth wave, and that's what we're finishing, whether it's going to be in this window or in this window, this one's getting a little congested because we're into counting a third wave down in terms of the C-wave. So, we've got the C-wave, we've got the third wave, and C-wave should probably come down to here. Why? because we're coming down to finish the third and which we may have done. I'll go down there in just a minute and just take a look. But I'm looking at this is what I I'm looking at in the NDX itself. It's it also a little bit different because this one I'm like, okay, all done. Same diagonal coming down, but again, we're just looking like we're going to finish wave three. So, we got a wave

6:10 four. This is of of a first minute wave one down, folks. Minute wave one. So, I got this covered on both sides. And so, in the futures market, it really does kind of fit better to be this minute wave four. Um, but it could also be this. It's just that the cash is going to dominate over the moves in the futures market and it's going to have to adhere to the cash close and the cash hours of trade. It's an NASDAQ 100, but with the extended trading and in the futures market, it has it's it's a little bit different. We're still counting as a diagonal, but this is wave B

6:57 of my new four. So wave A of my new four, wave B of my new four and then 1 2 finishing three going up in a four coming back down in a five but on a smaller degree and so still having this level to possibly reach and complete or we go as deep as this level. Now, that's the thing. If I bring this down, I really feel pretty strongly that both the S&P and the NASDAQ still have one more swing lower to do to finish up this. And in this case, we'd be finishing up. Um, see, this can't go there. This has to go over here. So, this is a b. And so we

7:42 kind of get one, two, one two and see that. I think that's just the three of three, four of three, five of three, and then we go four and a five to finish the C-wave. Now that's that's this comes into play 64 64 24,000 comes into play NDX wise that's been there forever and it's support and um and a break I think it's support and on a break it's going to force the cover it's by selling so what we saw initially yesterday today was through volatility having the market

8:28 um go through towards negative gamma negative and and then that's certain levels positive gamma from puts and no matter what when they got broken either that's again today and yesterday but more so today a lot of monetizing so we've we're likely in a lot of the underlying stocks but we notice that the VIX ends up down on the day, but yet the Dow still was down 200. The Nasdaq was down 35 and at one point it was down well over 100. Um the S&P only closing down 650 at some one point today was down I think 50 or 60. So again, you know

9:13 that this volatility move was nothing more than just getting what was what starts to occur again is the risk on trade. So I think so much had come off they were reestablishing some of that and whatever method that they were using but they started to sell the VIX. Now that doesn't mean that the VIX will go back to did not go back to 25 because I think it could you know very very easily and even though you can see after yeah you know it was up closer to 25 so they brought it and they had it down and now they're kind of got it in between and looking like yeah that's just not the right quote but with volatility with the expiration with

10:01 monetization going on with these nose dives and the nosebleleed uh races to to a high which we got this afternoon and I think it was just one big position one big position coming off and or being adjusted and for the expiration is either the zero DE zero DTE for today um or um which actually I don't think it happens in the NDX or the ENQ and I don't think today was an expiration in the Q's itself. So prep four, but tomorrow remains a big expiration. So um let me just bring this up to the 4 hour. It does kind of congeal a little bit better. So again in the NDX here we

10:47 did we did put in a new low below there. So wave three. Okay, but I'm looking for one little bit more. 1 2 3 4. Give me another five. I think 24,000 if it gets there would be good. This is Well, what is that? 25,77 can't be. Give me this. It's 23,854. 23,854 in the cash. And at 24,000 in the NDX is I'm pretty sure it is the putwall. Let me double check.

11:32 It is large gamma 2 and the putwalk at 24,000 24,228 over in the NQ. So I think that that will get scraped. So, and tomorrow would be the day. So, you get that one more slam dunk. Again, keep an eye on crude. That's That's crazy, but that's what they're they were ticking off a lot today. Uh, all right. Back over to the NQ. Oh, we got those in agreement. Either way, uh, it's either the four or we're coming down and to finish the three and we go to four and a five. So I think

12:17 yep, this could could all be done by tomorrow or it carries out into next week or up until the 31st of March then. So I think that for tomorrow we still need a little bit of a runner down. Let me just go to this one hour again because here we have two um right so here is what we're wave five and that's this internal one this smaller one here and that's 24292 and then 24,000 close to it in in the

13:03 futures market it's 24,046 and2 24th. Yeah, right there. And that's where I think we could get to. I think they want to go to I don't know. Something inside me says I think they want to test 24,000. And if they didn't get interrupted today, I think they could have gotten down there, but something came in and interrupted how they wanted to trade it. So, it kind of changed, ran up, but you see just red, red, red, red, red until the very end of the day. So interesting. But I think that's an ABC up. So if we have the one, two, three down, that's a four. We're going to come down in five.

13:48 That's going to put in this third. We go back up in a four. Come back down in a five. And that puts in the C-wave. And then that then finishes the C-wave. A B C. And that puts in this third So, I'm thinking this third. Yeah. Down in here, we do another again. Right. This This is a four. Come down in a five. Go back up in a four. Come back down in a five. And so, in this case, you're finishing the internal third, the fourth, and you come back down in the fifth. That finishes this third. And then you go back up on a four, and you come back down. And then you're done with the five. And that completes the C-wave. So, I do think

14:37 these windows are going to present a lot of opportunity and getting down to them and then how much trades down there and just what what how we figure. So, again, I I'm still thinking this is where we're going to end up. And I'm not going to think that we're going to drop a thousand plus points tomorrow. I would be stunned. So, something severe has to happen in terms of the war. something big has to kind of come in and shove it if it's going to be that much of a punch. It has to be a punch to drive that much money out uh or covering. So, but it I'm not saying it can't happen, but I would think that it's going to take several more days and we're going into next

15:23 week. All right. Immediately for tomorrow, I think back down towards the lows at 24,285. Um and maybe maybe um we can get up higher, but we're at 24,6 to get down to 24,000 that's 600 that we've seen in the day and that we've seen as it can get connected to um a Friday and expiration and it's a big one. So again, they might go after everything that's sitting underneath the market just to monetize and then let it rally. So it could be very interesting. All right. So, there's our markers for the third. Go up in a fourth. We come back down. That puts in this third puts in the C-wave. Excuse me. The small fifth

16:09 wave here puts in that Cwave coming down. This third goes into place. And we get another four. And that's an ABC up. And then we get another ABC down. Yep. In terms of But it'll be numbered. Um, and we'll get another C-wave down, another five down, excuse me. And then we'll put this third to get another four. We come down and then it's the C-wave. And so this is a marker for the C-wave. It might come into play, I think, support-wise, but this might be where we end up down as far as that to be determined. Don't know yet. So,

16:56 again, I am still pretty much fixed on that minute fourth wave. And if it is and we get a minute fifth wave, let's not get too excited about that, please. Because I believe it'll happen very, very quickly. And again, it could be connected to an expiration and it might be the quarterly expiration by then. And it's a it's trust me, I think it would be a setup. I think it would be a setup because no matter what, whatever we're finishing there, if we're going to do this minute wave five, I think it could get itself back up above to new highs and fill that gap that that in the futures market tells me that couldn't possibly because I have such a

17:41 huge failure. But I think in getting closer to getting back above 26,000 back up closer to 27,000 that's it. And then something else happens and drives this thing into the sewer. But in the this is going to be interesting because in the NASDAQ I got two in this case if it is going to follow the cash market then the cash market's coming down in a minute wave one like the S&P. So what would be coming up would be a minute wave two and that can be a very intense rally in this case on in this market where it would it would still show up that this was the highs could be switching to there but it's

18:28 going to show up here and it would have to work because in the cash market the difference is $12 In the futures market, the difference is over 300. So that's kind of the dichconomy, but it might just work out. And what we're working on now is minute wave one down. But in this case, it actually these would have to Yeah, this is for the other for the fourth wave. On the other side, these are uh minuette and so and a diagonal. So the diagonal stays in place here as well, but I'm going to get it be able to connect three. And once I get four, I'll connect it that way, too.

19:14 All right, I'm going to leave it there because to switch back and forth starts to become complicated, and I don't want to confuse people. So right now, I still believe that we have additional downside. The upside still might have a little bit, but I I don't I don't feel they're going to get carried away with it. Uh let's see how crude opens and where it starts to trade and and again where the markets trade um because if it's if we're done and we're going to do a little bit larger of a bounce that's also a possibility out of the side of my you know what um if I I don't know how I would put this we could I could put this again dealing with that minute fourth wave this low is below that low So, it

20:01 could be A B C. I'm not sure how I'm going to count this Cwave. Uh, at best I could do is I could say one ABC 2 3 4 and ugly five very, but we get down to there and call it five and call it uh C. So yes. And I could see people doing it. But what that because what the aftermath lays out is one ABC2 and look that is pretty clean. Cwave came down put a new new low and they they launched up off of it. I was like whoa what was that? You know so again I

20:50 don't know. We have to let the market tell us. And it is not going on Elliot. They're not sitting around the table going like, well, if we're in this, we should be putting on this trade. Not at all. It's kind of an indicator of where emotionally where we should be going. And we end up doing it, but for a totally different reason, right? The reason they'll get attached to why we declining is because of an expiration in gamma and how the options are trading and how they've been set up. And you go down and you start breaking that and it forces a change. It forces a cover an adjustment to someone's large or small position and when you get and there's a lot sitting there so that it behooves us to understand it what degree of gamma level

21:35 is there how large is it and where is the volatility trigger and where are these markers that you hear me talk about often. They're very important because options are growing and have remained strong and volumes remain very fixed. So, there's still plenty of things to trade. All right, that's it. Tomorrow, nothing. It's all being left for the expiration. So, no data, just trading and no news. Well, there might be news, but it's coming from other sources rather than economic. And so, our next update will be

22:20 tomorrow morning, and I will be reviewing and putting up the new or the adjusted for tomorrow uh gamma levels.