Ngobrolin HI On Stage: Bisakah Kita Bertahan? Indonesia di tengah Risiko Domestik dan Global

0:00 to present, right. And don't hesitate at all for us to have a discussion later. Uh, make the best use of the time available. Because when else could we have these three super special speakers here. Okay. Uh, so, friends, to start the event this morning, we will begin with a presentation by Mr. Kusnanto Anggoro. Uh, he is the director of, uh, wait, co-founder and executive director of the Center for Geopolitical, Ral, and has been a senior lecturer at various universities

0:46 , including the University of Indonesia , and also teaches not only for the Army, sir, but also for BIN. Does anyone know BIN? Yes. The trash bin. Okay, sir. Uh, Mr. Kusnanto Anggoro, or Mr. Kus as he's called, is a graduate of, uh, Bandung Institute of Technology, or ITB. Uh, then, uh, UI as well, sir. and then, uh , The Cake Center for Security Studies at Paloma College, United States, and the Institute of Soviet East European

1:33 Studies at the University of Glasgow. Uh, he will give a presentation regarding domestic and global risk management and map out how the risks faced by Indonesia are in the short, medium, and long term. The time and floor are yours, Mr. Kus, to deliver your presentation. Good afternoon. Yes, it's working, right? It's working. But it's still not as loud as when I use something like this at the West Student Center. At ITB,

2:20 back in the day. Ah, yes, it's always interesting, especially to meet with you, my friends of a different generation, having experiences that I think are very different, and certainly will have different expectations. And perhaps also when we assess the situation, it's different. Uh, I'm not sure, for example, if there is some kind of continuation of attitude between my generation, us, for instance , and you, a problem that always

3:07 happens in any country regarding the issue of generational change. Uh, maybe we won't talk about that later, but, uh , won't talk about that directly because my task is actually simple, which is to talk about whether Indonesia will survive facing a kind of global polycrisis, according to the World Economic Forum. So there are several crises, whether related to global climate change, environmental issues, then about technological development, then geopolitical shifts, for example, then also financial issues , and so on and so forth. That is

3:54 something that cannot be avoided by anyone at all. This is not the first time this has happened in the world; it has actually happened often, including the economic depression of the 1930s uh , which then, whether it was because of a causal relationship, or an accidental relationship, or a coincidence, or because of something, then culminated in World War II, and also Hitler in Europe, and so on and so forth. So, hopefully we won't be faced with a risk as serious as that. Especially later if Pram is there, everything will be settled. I think, Pram, welcome. Me.

4:44 Yes, I am filled. That is roughly what we are faced with, in my opinion. Deliberately not definitive. In the last 10 years, I have actually been very skeptical, pessimistic, and never optimistic about Indonesia. Including when I worked providing assessments at the State Intelligence Agency, for example. But this time the atmosphere is different because I am positioning myself to try to understand you, although it is a bit of a guess. Especially related to, for example, how are you going to respond to what is

5:30 actually a crisis, what you have in mind about us, what we want, and so on. Which I think is different from mine. I am one of those people who is very regretful about Indonesian democracy, for instance, because I happened to experience many things during the New Order era, being locked up, put in with snakes, and so on, something like that. Experiences that you have never faced now, which currently seem in Indonesia to be a kind of soft authoritarianism, at most, or digital authoritarianism, or authoritarianism without coercion. It does not mean it is better, but at

6:15 least physically it is less physically painful, but it has long-term impacts that are extraordinary. This picture needs to be presented mainly because, whether we like it or not, policy, foreign policy, diplomacy, and politics have to start at home. If the house is in chaos, it is difficult to determine our response. There is a geopolitical shift, and how we will answer that is not very easy either. If at home, our problems are actually more at home, in my opinion, now in Indonesia, especially since 2022. Until now. And

7:05 frankly, I do not see any change happening in 2029 or maybe 2035. It is difficult, it will not change. It is hard to hope that Indonesia will change by 2035. In terms of the political ecosystem, in terms of how they will respond to this and that change, and so on and so forth. Every country is affected, though. The ones not affected are only Denmark, Switzerland, Zambia, and Costa Rica. Only those four; everyone else is affected. It is just a matter of whether it is serious or not. Now, if we talk about serious or not, The point actually returns to the matter of resilience. This is something

7:53 , or endurance, that has never been measured; it is actually not endurance, but pain tolerance. How much pain before we lash out, right? Now, this is what is never measured. As for the endurance we have in Indonesia, there is, for example, the National Resilience Institute, their research is good, they have 976 indicators, that is a mess, if research already has too many indicators, it means they cannot select which indicators are the most important. Everything is included, at least in my opinion, right. So, there should be 976 indicators that aren't very easy to calculate; the results are just average, our national resilience

8:38 index is more or less 2.5 and so on, not too bad, except for resilience related to social and ideological resilience. Uh, here I'm not presenting that, but this is long-term. This graph shows that Indonesia has good resilience. The declining line shows it's getting better and better. Actually starting from 2006 to 2026, uh , I’m only displaying from 2014 to 2024 here. Now, this is also interesting, Bram. Uh, why only up to '24? They didn't make it for 2025 or 2026 internationally. We’ll discuss

9:24 it later if you need to know because the campaign carried out by the Indonesian Government is extraordinary in silencing many parties, including those abroad who conduct those researches. Uh, but our performance is okay. Now, this is measured from 12 clusters of variables, each consisting of four. So about 48 or so, but in principle, it's good, except for three very specific and usually accidental things. One is related to the political elite or elite fragmentation. This is becoming more common, isn't it? Especially if you read Pram's leaks, elite fragmentation is something we're getting used to, right, PR? It’s

10:10 getting louder, but the impact isn't much. Serious conflicts among them are not that many. But according to them, that’s one indication; the second is the actions of the apparatus towards, let's say, citizens, although in some places, especially in areas like Papua or other conflict zones, it's good, okay, improving. So I arrived at the conclusion that roughly, if the issue is about the survival of our nation-state, we are going to survive. We have survived for decades, and we

10:56 are going to survive for the next decade. The problem is, does surviving mean surviving in misery or what, that’s roughly the point. Then how long will we hold out? Is survival measured until the year 2045, 2075, or 2035, or 2029? This is the problem. But for the long term, I think we will survive. This, uh graph is about survivability. So we should also talk about the shorter term. Now, hopefully, Pram can tell us more about stories

11:42 that will influence the short term of 2029. If you ask, in the year 2035, will Indonesia survive? Still, 2045, still 2055-2075. Still? I even dared to dream about the year 2075. That is 800 years. Since what? Kertanegara's Pamalayu Expedition. Indonesia becomes a medium power, already able to project power elsewhere. But 2075 is a long way off, it's a long way, roughly like that . But it's possible if it comes to that . Now, in the, what do you call it, next slide, I forgot what's in it.

12:28 Please. So, this democracy is, roughly speaking, bad. We know several terms that have been widely discussed, for example, democratic backsliding, democratic recession, democratic, whatever, more or less like that. Um. And I think it will get worse until the year 2000, no, I think it will definitely get worse, there is no possibility of it getting better. Now, the problem is um to what extent are we aware or feel disadvantaged by that

13:13 deterioration of democracy. Now, this is where there is subsequently an issue regarding generational differences. For me, it is bad, not being allowed to speak is bad, something like that. Um, because in the past, it was strictly prohibited. But for you, not being allowed to speak is not a big issue. Because from the start, you have been allowed to speak anywhere, so free speech is a non-issue now compared to the 80s, 90s, or the 2000s, more or less like that. So the demands regarding democracy that you have are most likely different from mine. Generation Z, for example, prefers democratic impact or the impact of

13:58 democratic governance on public life. For instance, whether corruption is improving or not, whether public services are improving or not, how easy it is to access schools, and so on and so forth, compared to issues of freedom of expression, the issue of being called and told not to speak, for example, which is often suffered by Bram, for instance. Sometimes you don't realize issues like that, my guess is. Is that right? Maybe I am mistaken. But at least I think you will be more concerned about more concrete issues.

14:52 This is a major problem that we will face regarding democracy in Indonesia, which unfortunately, we don't know where it's headed. This is indeed the most complicated issue right now. I personally tend to say that what is happening now is a kind of manipulative democracy. Because there is actually a kind of information control by the government. We spread hoaxes, the government also spreads hoaxes. It's more or less like that. There is no data whatsoever that can be fully trusted. BPS data standardization changes at any time and so on and so forth. That is what causes many people to be confused. About what exactly

15:39 needs to be done. But don't worry, in my opinion, democracy is indeed a 20 th-century phenomenon. Right? The first , second, and third waves of democratization occurred in the years before 2000, and the fourth wave only occurred in 2011-2012 after the Arab Spring. But everything looked more at the aspects of democracy formulated as in the West. My guess is that at some point, a new form of democracy will emerge, which is very likely what people are starting to call Asiatic

16:24 democracy. Examples are China, South Korea, actually, Korea and Singapore. So the democracy index of those three countries is lower than Indonesia's. But its performance in handling corruption and in the delivery of public services is much better in Indonesia. That is why it is politically stable. Besides other threats and so on, I think there are several favorable aspects. We do not know if we are headed toward that. My suspicion is that we are heading there. Do I like it? The answer is no, I don’t, because I am from the old school. But it is not as bad as what I

17:13 had previously imagined or suspected. Because democracy certainly has its cultural aspects. If you have read Raul Manglapus's 1976 work, "The Ancient Democracy in Asia," it tells a lot about how democracy in Asia began to emerge around 5,000 BC. There were cities like Harappa, Mohenjo-Daro, and so on, which also practiced a form of democracy. This is where democratic practices also existed. Of course, the system was not called democracy, there were no parties, more or less. More or less, but it was about public

17:59 participation and so on and so forth. This is a big question. Hopefully, it is not a serious matter for you. Even though it remains serious for me, I am from the passing generation. I will not be around for much longer, more or less . At least, sorry, I mean this change will take a long time. Let's not hope for a change in 2029; let's look at the path toward 2045. By 2045, you will not be sitting here anymore, right? You will be members of parliament or something similar, replacing the older ones, and your expectations then will not be the same as mine. Actually, it

18:51 is quite normal, because everywhere, democratization always starts with liberalization, and only then does the state......kick in, emerging only later . We are just a bit late because during the time of Mr. SBY, for instance, from 2004 to 2014, the valve of democracy was opened very wide. That is correct. So, indeed, there were several things that I think were somewhat neglected in terms of security, especially related to terrorism and so on. It's not quite an issue, in my opinion, especially for you, at least until the year 2045. The

19:39 following is a short story. The image above shows that our capabilities are not that high. More or less that. Mr. Prabowo often says, for example, that we are a large nation and everyone is interested in us, and so on. We have good resources, many of them, and foreign countries do not want us to grow into a strong nation. I think there is still much to be said. Actually, it’s not really......not that strong. Like it or not, our political leverage is...1.5 which is

20:31 lower than Singapore's. 7.5 compared to Thailand's 3.7 compared to Malaysia's. We may have abundant resources, or gold , or whatever else, like oil and so on, but we cannot convert that into political leverage. So it's difficult. We have many goods that everyone wants, but we cannot convert that. Then the second table just shows a comparison regarding some matters, especially related to the risks faced by Indonesia

21:16 compared to, if I recall correctly, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brazil, Turkey, and Thailand. That data, if you look at the numbers we are not better than Malaysia, Thailand, and what was it again? Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. No need to compare with Singapore, definitely not. That would be a wrong comparison. No need to compare with China; we would lose to Korea as well. But we are better than Brazil and we are better than Turkey in terms of how we handle these risks. So,

22:10 the conclusion I want to convey is that we are faced with several things, but on the other hand, we have a level of resiliency that is not high. And also regarding how we face crises, we are less decisive compared to several other countries. Aha. My assumption here is that I am trying to compare with other countries in the hope that we are not deceived by data from Indonesia. At least if foreign data is false, it is at least false for all countries. Right ? So there is comparability. But if Indonesian data is false, it's problematic. And if the Indonesian data is correct, we might just feel like we're suffering alone or happy alone.

22:56 We don't know what is happening in other countries. With this comparative perspective, we come to know that we are not that successful, nor are we that much of a failure. Yes, something like that. More or less this is what I want to convey. Our resiliency and our competitiveness are low. Whether that's due to innovation or digital capabilities, or because of various other things and so on. Now, why is this competitiveness important? For me, the survivability of any state should not be measured solely by the ability to live or die, but also by whether it can win when competing with others. If

23:44 you can't win the competition, it's useless. That's my view. But other people might differ; some are thankful and grateful if we can just survive. There is that, and that's not bad; just surviving is fine. Some are already grateful, for example, if Indonesia's gross domestic product reaches 8%, even though in reality, of that 8%GDP, more than half is controlled by only 1%of the people, for instance. I would prefer, for instance, to hear news that Indonesia's GDP is growing by 3%, for

24:30 example, but that effective credit delivered to MSMEs is increasing, school costs are decreasing, public services are good, and so on and so forth. But it's a pity that you never hear indicators like that, right? That is why your task later is to also look at things like that. You might not be interested, like I am, in political liberalization. But you cannot ignore how important the impact of democracy is on our daily lives. The next day, it seems it's already gone. Oh, this

25:17 geopolitical shift isn't really that important. Even though it is important to Mr. Prabowo and me. Because I once heard stories that Mr. Prabowo often, uh, watches war movies. He imagines that wars like in those bygone years will still happen, and so on, which I think will not happen for the next 15 years. Wars like the Second World War, hegemonic wars, and so on, are gone; what exists now are limited wars with selected targeting, focusing on specific targets instead of populations , and so on. The consequence is that

26:03 the defense design must also be different. What is prioritized and so on, like the military's duty to plant rice and so on, I think is something like, uh, a "Red and White" cooperative prepared to handle logistics during wartime, for example. It's confusing for, for, uh, for, for me. So that's how the story goes. Fortunately, if there were a worst-case scenario war, it would be in the South China Sea, and it wouldn't reach Indonesia in a physical sense. The most extreme consequence or risk is the disruption of the global supply chain, and so on.

26:52 And that is not a survival issue for Indonesia if we have prepared for a long time; sometimes, the ones being foolish are ourselves. Our so-called strategic oil reserve is only 22 days, and that's been the case for 20 or even 30 years. Yes, it's been a long time; it's been a long time. It was 22 days since I was in college, and until now, when you are giving lectures, it's still 22 days. So who is the foolish one? It's clear, more or less. It has never been increased, compared to Japan , which has 720 days, the United States with 364, and Korea with hundreds of days, and so on. So if we die, it's

27:40 actually natural. So if we survive, thank God, it's more or less like that. That is geopolitical shift; we can discuss various things later. It might also be important that now the game is becoming more interesting because we play around multiple dashboards. Please , is this the last one or not? Ah, it was empty earlier. But I filled it in at that time, uh, briefly. So it's like this, the question of survival should then also be discussed next. First is

28:27 related to the timeline of 2029, 2035, 2030, uh, in accordance with the cycle of governmental change or elections, something like that. If you ask whether we will survive in 2045, we will also survive in 2075. Uh, the second is impact. How big is the impact? We know that a country is hit by global crisis issues, but how big is that impact on public life, not on economic growth. Because economic growth doesn't really influence that. The third thing that also needs to be discussed is how we, how the citizens and the political system are going to respond to that. If

29:16 you just stay silent and feel that everything is fine, then there won't be any change, because the source of change must be assumed to come from, uh , from us. I think that's all for now. Later, if you want details, that's fine . Uh, uh, are most or all of these students from International Relations? Is it most of them or all of them? All of them. All of them, sir? From IR. Oh. Uh, all of them are interesting. Uh , International Relations is definitely different from my time because we are from different generations. Back when I was, uh, I used to be Pak Aidil's lecturer. Yeah, about 25 years ago. An

30:08 idea, right? At that time, the most popular, Pram, was strategic studies. Out of 80 UI graduate students, 42 chose that topic. And I was the only one teaching it. Wouldn't you be drunk from supervising them all? Well, I think things have shifted now. I'm not sure if you are interested in war as I understand it. Uh, but also don't forget that war takes on various forms. For example, how diaspora campaigns can be used to, uh, influence public opinion. Now, look at how, for example,

30:56 China uses its diaspora network in Australia in accordance with China's 2017 National Security Law to do many things and so on and so forth. So, the essence of that is actually still there , it just depends on how we look for it , right? There's still a lot, so if I wanted to sell it, it would still be popular. Okay, that's it for now. Uh, feel free to ask questions later. Ready. Thank you. Thank you, Pak Kus. A round of applause for Pak Kus. It's very interesting how Pak Kus spoke earlier about non-uniform data, which will certainly influence policy-making and also regarding Indonesia's position and how Indonesia

31:42 can actually survive. Next, uh, our second speaker, we will continue with Mbak Indri, whom we all know as the head of the International Relations lab , Mbak Yulia Indrawatisari. Uh, let's give a round of applause for Mbak Indri . FYI, this lady is our only lecturer who has two master's degrees. Just imagine. Her undergraduate degree is also from ITB, right, ITB. Her master's degrees are in public policy, uh, at

32:27 ANU, Australian National University, and in development studies from SOAS in London, right. and then pursued her doctorate at the, uh, Australian National University in Public Policy. Mbak Indri is, uh, the head of the lab. Oh, it was already mentioned earlier, right, Mbak. And, uh, for this event, Mbak Indri will be sharing, uh, experience, or rather, not experience, but insights. Her insights regarding ecological risks and civil society resilience. Especially as we know, Indonesia is currently facing many ecological threats and disasters. Mbak Indri, the floor is yours. Thank you, Mas Aska. Actually, it

33:15 shouldn't just be about ecological resilience, right? Okay, thank you very much. Yeah, thank you so much, Mas Aska . Uh, hello everyone. Usually we meet in class, now we meet here, right? And I'm happy, uh, to be here with the, uh, wonderful gentlemen beside me. The title really makes one think, Mas Aska. Can we survive, right? Um, I thought about what perspective to take in answering that, what focus, and it depends on whether I've had coffee or not. Whether I'm optimistic or, uh, pessimistic, right? Next slide. Uh, Hira. This starts with me asking, are

34:04 you anxious? If you ask if I'm anxious, I'm probably just like you all here. Uh , of course there is anxiety, that what is happening lately, we are surrounded by, and we are experiencing and observing various, uh, events, uh, natural disaster events, right? And these disasters are not only in Indonesia, but also, uh, in European countries, Nepal, and so on. We then, uh, see forest fires, right? Whenever

34:51 we scroll and see the firefighters, how does our heart feel, right? And then we remember what happened, for example, flash floods in Sumatra, then recently in Nepal, and then we also see heatwaves happening in Europe. Uh, and then recently, with Mount Merapi's activity, we see that Indonesia is prone to disasters, right, the Ring of Fire and so on. Then also um, the situation we are currently facing. For instance, we question some policies, policy priorities. Is this policy right

35:38 , uh, to be carried out with such a large budget? Are there no other priorities, and we think it could perhaps be used for, uh, other things. On the other hand, uh, students, alumni , venting, "Mbak, it's hard to get a job nowadays, isn't it?" It takes a long time to get a job, and in an economic situation like this, we know prices are getting higher, inflation, and all that. Then we are also faced with a situation where, as Pak Kus said earlier, "I don't want it if I can't speak up," right? But the situation for being able to speak up is also, uh, not

36:23 free, you know. There is something we see that we call criminalization. Those who want to advocate for their rights, especially if facing powerful actors, can face the threat of criminalization. So, if you ask about this, um, yes, it's concerning. If, for example, you look at this situation, it’s concerning. But I also don't want to think that we cannot survive, but I also don't want to say or romanticize that everything will be fine and we will live "happily ever after," that's not it either. But I actually want to invite all the friends here to see or think from a perspective that I often use and is also in International

37:09 Relations classes, which is through the perspective of civil society organizations and social movements. And we will start, if I invite friends to start with who is actually moving when the situation is not going well. Next. Now, this is just an example, there are actually many movements, and we should not just be fixated on those we see in the media. There are actually many movements moving around us in their own way and with the methods they employ. And I want to introduce friends to one community because I happen to know them

37:56 quite well in the city of Bandung, which consists of people just like you all here, "Seni Tani" or "Art of Farming." It consists of young people who are restless. What are they restless about? Their restlessness is about the climate, about crop failure, climate change, and disaster risks. But they have a very important question regarding climate justice. If things like this happen, who actually bears the risk? Who gets the biggest risk? Yes. Then they thought that the things we eat, well, it turns out that within the food margin, there are groups of

38:42 farmers with the smallest margins, yet they are the ones receiving the greatest risk from the situation. They are also restless about this. Why don't young people today want to get into farming? So there are many such questions. What do they do with that restlessness? They answer it with what they call a local food system. Yes, they farm, they contact small-scale farmers and livestock breeders, connecting them with consumers. I am one of its members. So when I buy their produce, I know where it comes from. I get the story. Oh, the mustard greens I'm eating come from Mr. Odang's farm.

39:27 Mr. Odang's land is right here. The story goes like this, and what they get from it. This exists in Bandung, right around you. The second story is the women's school from "Kapal Perempuan." I will invite you all to get to know them; maybe those in the CSOs class have heard the story before. We are introduced to a group that we call young women in remote areas and islands . There are three intersectionalities of vulnerability within these individuals or communities. Being a woman, being a young person, and living in remote and island areas. Yes, what

40:16 —and we also have research on it. What happens? What life milestones do they experience? Yes, first of all, in remote island areas, access is not the same as it is now. For education and health, on one island, what is the highest level? Middle school, right? Junior high school. Is there any work? There is some. Diving, pearls, or mining? Yes. So, once they finish middle school, what do these young women do? If they want to go to high school, or even further, like college, they have to migrate off the island. Is

41:03 it possible? No. Why? Because they are women. Men are allowed to migrate, they are not. Yes, so what is the reason? Because they say, "Ah, you are a woman. Just stay here later." Or, if you migrate, who will take care of your parents? Who will look after them? Yes, we are worried if you leave, so we are faced with a concept we call " constrained agency." They are faced with limited choices, so what is the lifetime decision they make? It is

41:49 getting married, entering into child marriage. Yes, in, uh, and then entering marriage at a young age makes them vulnerable to domestic violence. Is there any counseling? No. Kapal Perempuan, together with local organizations, then created a school for women. This women's school isn't like ours, in a room, with AC, and such . Uh, yes. Like that. What they have is they can have classes under a mango tree in front of the beach. Then they

42:37 learn about, uh, what we call their agency—that they have choices, that they can have a voice, and that they have other options to escape things like violence and so on. What to do when menstruating, how to deal with their bodies, and how to negotiate. Okay. What is the result? Some of them can then prevent child marriage for their nieces or cousins. Okay. Then one more thing, I can't mention everything. Emm, The Gecko Project. Yes. The Gecko Project is a non-profit organization based in the UK, consisting of journalists. They focus on investigations regarding climate, human

43:24 rights, and so on. Because if you know, this will definitely be from Tempo, right? News is also about power relations. The news that reaches you might also be controlled by, uh, certain groups or, uh, entities. Well, if you all have some time, there is one Geko Project production because they have a team in Indonesia that investigates corporations, specifically palm oil, that caused deforestation in Tanah Merah, Boven Digoel. Even the title is very interesting. The title is "Secret Deals Destroy Forests." In

44:11 Papua. If you have time, give it a read , everyone. And if you read it, their investigative skills and their Indonesian journalists are actually kept anonymous because they have to be protected. They reveal who the actors are behind the deforestation in Boven Digoel. If you look at it, this network of actors goes here, and these actors go there. From Malaysia, it can even reach here. There are those involved, everyone. You can read it later. So, you are dealing with the work of civil society organizations in what field? Knowledge production, the production of

44:57 knowledge that might not reach you because of the power dynamics involved. Tempo is one that is consistent. In Bandung, there is also Bandung Bergerak . Beyond that, everyone, there is Papua Voices. They tell stories about being indigenous Papuans from their own perspectives. Amidst stigma, amidst racism and colonialism, which they experience post-colonialism. Yes, so these are actually just small examples, everyone. There are actually many others moving. Next, Hira. Now, we also see one thing, everyone, that the way

45:42 to move is not just offline. Offline is good, don't forget it. Organizing meetings, mobilization down to the grassroots, like in Pak Kus's era in the 90s, you know. That is very, very important. Especially now with the narrative that we shouldn't feel—some call it "slacktivism"—where clicking somehow equates to activism. But we must realize, everyone, that I want to introduce you to the digital space as another way to move. What's important is that while criminalization also happens a lot in offline spaces, it doesn't mean it doesn't exist in the digital space, along with surveillance too. Now, and this, everyone, what is

46:29 the power of the digital space? This is what is closest to all of you. Voice amplification. Why? Because the digital space is cross-border, right? It crosses geographical boundaries, and it crosses class boundaries. So, if you have an issue, or any issue at all, it can reach or be voiced to a wider public. And then, the power of the digital, if it's strong with symbols, narratives, and stories, it can reach more parties. It can create what we can call collective solidarity, awareness, building awareness. And then move. Yes,

47:19 later you will also learn that in IR, there is transnational advocacy, which is cross-border, everyone. Maybe, uh, lately, you know, we've both been scrolling, and I don't know if you guys have been following the orphanage in Lembang, West Bandung; on the thread, it was about an orphanage for toddlers. They needed to move and had to move right then and there. Can you imagine moving toddlers and babies? They needed volunteers, so it was put on that thread, and within hours, there were volunteers, uh, volunteers with cars. Not just supplies, but people who were

48:04 actually, uh, used to caregiving work, you know, transporting babies and toddlers. And the very next day, or—I don't know the exact details—the next day or very quickly after, the orphanage received help; that’s an example. Of course, you all know about transnational advocacy, like, uh, the ones closest to us, the ones most of you are familiar with, for instance, the MeToo Movement and so on. When there was a disaster, the movement during that time the ship sank, the Virgo—it was so heartbreaking, right? Then there was a wife searching for her husband, and all the netizens were praying, praying for them. Then some

48:50 people took action, like, uh, checking the passenger manifest and all that. Is there a dark side to the digital world? There is. But let's just use this for our discussion. Next is, uh, Mbak Hira. Now, let's get a little acquainted with what makes all this possible; we'll learn about what we call civic space and civil society organizations. So, from what you all studied earlier, there's the movement that helped the toddlers, Kapal Perempuan, women's schools, the Gecko Project, uh, Seni Tani, Papuan Voices, and many others; you know them as civil society organizations. They are the ones who

49:36 move, uh, to fill the void or the limitations of the state, businesses, or corporations. They can have various functions. Their methods are, uh, criticizing, lobbying, advocating, and they can create alternative movements. Like, "I'm restless, but I will create a movement that I personally believe in ." A method, approach, or program that I believe in myself. Some do it through narratives, production, or knowledge. Voicing, you know, representing the voices of groups that are silenced or often excluded from the main narrative; that is civil society organizations. Civil society organizations will be healthy if the civic space is supportive. Civic space is the

50:23 situation and condition where civil society organizations can move, uh, speak up, and organize. In theory, the two are interconnected. Civic space strengthens civil society organizations . Strong civil society organizations can also influence the, uh, resilience and the strength of a healthy civic space. Next, Mbak, but...There are many conditions for a healthy civic space, right? I don't want to say there are many theories, but simply put, a healthy civic space. Civic space is determined by several things. The main one is, first, the state. Yes, the

51:09 state with all its elements. How much space do they provide for you to organize, to be able to critique, without fear, to be able to give a voice to groups that are unseen, invisible, and so on. Secondly, the civic space is determined by all of us. Ethics values that respect inclusivity. Understanding the difference between public space and not, respecting which is public space, which is private space . This is important. The conditions

51:57 various studies are saying that the civic space is currently unhealthy, it's being narrowed, it's being constricted. But here we see that there are civil society organizations finding ways and moving, whether in digital or offline spaces. And this is actually important. Okay. Because there is one, like the main theory earlier, about democracy. Pak Kus already talked about democracy earlier. If our democracy becomes more meaningful, the civic space becomes healthier, civil society becomes healthy. But from Alberto

52:44 Melucci's social movement theory, he says that civil society organizations can be solid and move if one of the factors or solidarity is formed by conflict or a threat. In our time, what did we call it, sir, back then when there was a common enemy? What era was that, Mas? If there is a common enemy, we move. I remember my friends in 98-99. As soon as Soeharto stepped down, my activist friends were confused about what to do next. So yes. So we can see that even in conditions that are not okay, there are

53:29 organizations, there's you, there's civil society, there are communities, NGOs, groups, actors, individuals moving with different methods. Methods like investigative work, knowledge production, or what else? Mobilization movements, advocacy, organizing, empowerment, working at the grassroots level, and speaking up. So they exist and they converge. Next, this is the last one, so the question is, can we survive? I see that even in conditions

54:17 that are not okay, conditions where the civic space is being constricted. It turns out Indonesia has those who move and find ways with their own variations or nuances of methods. And going back to Pak Kus, we talk about finding what we call resilience. Resilience is when conditions are difficult, we have the capacity, we have the awareness and capacity to what? To move and to do something. And we should always remember the question: if something happens, who makes the decision, but

55:02 who is most harmed by that decision? Who bears the greatest risk from that decision? And this is the function of all of us, including our friends here. Thank you, Mas Saska. That's all. Applause for Mbak Indri. How Mbak Indri reminds us again, that in grassroots civil society movements, it is very important to keep them alive, and there should always be spaces that can be filled as long as friends remain enthusiastic. Enthusiastic for what? To be resilient. Thank you, Mbak Indri.

55:48 Next, we have someone who just joined us, Mas Stefanus Pramono, or often called Mas Pram. He is a senior journalist. The head of Tempo's investigative desk and one of the hosts of "Bocor Alus." He has joined, I hope I'm not wrong, Mas, you've been with Tempo since 2005. Correct, 2005. And he has won several prestigious awards, including one of the highest journalism awards in Indonesia, the Adinegoro award in 2016 and 2019, and he also won the Kate Webb Prize for investigative reporting related to conflict. He was

56:39 also a war correspondent, covering the war in Syria. And he was also involved in investigative reports with other international media in the disclosure of the Panama Papers. Mas Pram is here to chat with us and discuss freedom of information and public accountability, especially regarding the current situation in Indonesia. Of course, there are so many insights that we can get from Mas Pram. The floor is yours, Mas Pram. Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Good afternoon. I had asked Mas Aska how free I am to speak here, and he

57:25 said I'm free. Oh, why free? Yes, yes. I appreciate it because Unpar still has academic freedom to speak, even though it's being recorded, but it will be edited later if there is anything problematic. Talking about Prabowo is actually easy for me. Talking about the bad things regarding the government is very easy, but finding the positive ones is difficult. Fortunately, I was asked to talk about something that is indeed very bad right now in Indonesia. That is, the issue of freedom of information, including freedom of expression and public transparency.

58:10 This is based on my experience and my observations. My apologies, I only have text here, I made it a bit in a rush because my laptop is broken. I asked my editorial secretary to prepare it, and if there are any mistakes, I apologize. Okay, let's look at the current conditions. Freedom of information, our political and economic climate is not doing well. Certainly. I don't know, earlier Pak Agus said he was stressed under Prabowo. I said, me too. Who isn't, right? Especially, perhaps the middle class, the upper-middle class, and also activists, as well as critical students; they are actually stressed, if I look at it, and there will be more and more stressed people in this country. So many people are acting

58:57 recklessly. I think that also has something to do with Prabowo. Let’s blame Prabowo for this. Yes, because what happens at the top trickles down to the bottom. We are seeing something unclear, economic uncertainty. Yet he claims everything is completely positive. But the situation is not like that. The political climate is clear, the economic climate is also very unhealthy. And this is also seen from the media side, which is considered the fourth pillar of democracy. Last year, 549 journalists lost their jobs because their media outlets collapsed. All mass media in Indonesia, except for Prabowo's media, are definitely

59:44 collapsing. Even if we talk about big groups, like Kompas, Kompas TV, also print Kompas, and then Tempo exists but not many, because our number of employees is not that high, and they laid off so many of their journalists. And on the other hand, it's actually a bit reversed, there is a dominance of politicians, specifically those close to Prabowo, to determine who becomes the editor-in-chief. So, it's as if this state can interfere in private affairs, determining who leads a private organization; it’s really crazy that the state can act like that. And there are so many, there's also my

1:00:31 subordinate, my former subordinate, who then became a deputy editor-in-chief at one of the media outlets. And he proudly said, "your best reporter." He always claimed to be my best reporter. Your best reporter became the deputy editor-in-chief. I haven't even read his message to this day. I just saw it in passing. And for me, what is the point of being proud to be a deputy editor-in-chief or even an editor-in-chief when the state is the one doing the choosing? Not because of competence, not because of experience. And this makes self-censorship stronger . The media today some media or perhaps even most media have self-censorship. So even before it airs, they have already censored it. There is a big media outlet where if there is the name

1:01:17 Prabowo and also the name Jokowi in a news story, it must be edited by an official, by an editor at the executive editor level. An executive editor is like me, it's above the editorial staff . Above that, sorry, it's reporter, editorial staff, editor, and only then executive editor; it has to be edited by an editor that high up. And there was one media outlet that, at the time of the demonstration—at least that I know of, the July 22nd demonstration— was strictly forbidden from using the word "demonstration" or "protest," and was only allowed to use what? " Conveying aspirations." That is the kind of language that was subsequently used. There were also some that, after

1:02:02 6 PM, were no longer allowed to cover the demonstration. And this clearly shows that the media today has a high potential to become, or has even already become, a tool of power. Meanwhile, the press council, which should be able to protect the media, is not functioning. We are only talking about the media here. Next. On the other hand, we can see there are 6.5 billion posts per day. This is from the 2025 Reuters Institute survey, if I'm not mistaken. Including hoaxes, which are so rampant. And here we see a trend where articles written by journalists, or produced by mass media, are being defeated by 30-second videos on TikTok,

1:02:48 Instagram, and so on. There is also the zero-click phenomenon, where 54%or more than half of the world's population, not just in Indonesia, get their news from social media. Who actually opens the Kompas.com site to read the news? Is there anyone who goes directly to the original site? Any? None. Or perhaps no one reads the news at all. If you don't read the news, your lives must be quite a mess. As students, you certainly have to read the news. And I'm also not convinced that you go to the original sources. Many journalists are like that too. They prefer to read media and news from social media as

1:03:33 well. This camera is a bit distracting. Good articles are also defeated by algorithms. YouTube's and Google's algorithms have caused many media outlets to lose revenue, and they are also being outperformed by content creators. Next. What is the impact? The impact is that media independence is declining. Independence must be distinguished from neutrality. If anyone says that mass media must be neutral, that is absolutely not the case. In many cases and issues, the mass media should actually not be neutral. Why? Because there must be a stance. For example, when LGBT

1:04:23 individuals are being persecuted, the media must take a stand for them. We are not justifying what they do. The debate would be long, bringing in matters of morality, religion, and so on. But they are also our friends and fellow citizens who need to be protected and receive protection from the state while they continue to be persecuted. For example, many of my friends use the word "boti," for instance. At a glance, it's a funny word, but in the end, it turns out to be a very inappropriate term. these are words that later discriminate against them. That's just an example. Okay.

1:05:09 Media must be independent. Sorry, about that partisanship earlier, it's very important for the media. Partisanship for those who are marginalized. The media must be the voice of the voiceless, and to be like that, the media must be independent. Meanwhile, not many media outlets are independent right now. Honestly, as a journalist, I sometimes feel that Tempo is all alone in Indonesia. We criticize the government, very diligently, criticizing the government every day even. Meanwhile, various other media outlets, they choose the safe path, perhaps. So that they can keep surviving. Trust in the media is also continuing to decline. The democracy

1:05:58 index is the same, and public interest is no longer a priority. Next. Here we can see the press freedom index keeps dropping. These are the rankings, our press freedom index in 2023 was 108 and now 128. Very far off. The same goes for, oh, this is wrong, this index should be the democracy index below, not the press freedom index. We see the figure 6.71 in 2022 during Jokowi's time, and now it is 6.37. Yes. And actually, this damage already occurred during Jokowi's time. In 2015, our

1:06:43 democracy index went up, which was announced in 2016. Why? Because at that time, Jokowi had just been elected. But then we saw the results in 2024, it reached 7 if I'm not mistaken. Now it's 6...after Jokowi stepped down it was 6.44, and now during Prabowo's time it's 6.37. I don't know what next year will be like. We might even reach an even lower level. Next. Now, before getting here, we also see various cases regarding freedom of speech. Do you guys know, Andre Yunus? Andre Yunus is my friend, and I also met him, I had

1:07:28 the chance to visit him in the hospital , and his condition was very severe at that time. I saw, oh my, his body was far from unscathed, and the wounds were so painful for him. He was in so much pain at that time. The perpetrators were soldiers. It seems this will be cut because these are stories we experienced ourselves. At that time, my friend named Fransiska Christi Rosana, alias Cicak, was also sent a pig's head . And the perpetrators, the information we received, of course, were the same as those who targeted Andri Yunus, soldiers as well. We know, but we

1:08:15 cannot prove it, so we cannot report it . That is the big problem. Now, this clearly shows that freedom of expression in Indonesia right now is really quite damaged. If people speak up, they just have to wait to be summoned by the police, you know. And personally, I have also observed strange people who might be around me, or even during our reporting, we once caught six people tailing my journalists. Six people, and they were exchanging information in the restroom; that’s where they were caught. Their movements were suspicious. They watched

1:09:01 from afar and then entered the restroom . And right there, they were exchanging information when our colleague was there, that’s where they were discovered. It means that for journalists who are critical of the government, protection from the state is zero. When we were sent a pig's head , what did Hasan Nasbi do at that time? "Just cook it." That was his comment, just cook it. Fortunately, he said that , so he was removed, right? I was happy about that—that he actually said that . "Just cook it." Okay. What did Prabowo do at that time? He never condemned that act, that incident. Not even once did he condemn the sending of the pig's head.

1:09:51 There’s a conspiracy, Mas. There’s a conspiracy. Maybe there was a meatball vendor passing by in front too. Here, the where was I, I forgot, yeah, Prabowo never condemned it once, instead he said this was an attempt to divide the nation, or whatever it was back then. Yeah, I thought, "Ah, well, that's Prabowo for you," you know. If he had actually condemned it and defended Tempo, well, that wouldn't be Prabowo, that’s for sure. Okay, so that's the condition for freedom of expression. And this is dangerous. When freedom of speech and expression are restricted,

1:10:36 the impact is on what happens within the government. Government transparency ultimately goes unchecked. Meanwhile, our government transparency is currently so poor. For example, the selection and appointment of officials. Yeah, let's take one easy example. The election—at that time, the selection of Gibran as vice president, right? That was very non-transparent and also very undemocratic, of course. And now, Cabinet Secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya— how is it possible for military personnel to occupy a civilian post just because he has extraordinary closeness to the president? Many are laughing, some are smiling; maybe they already have their own assumptions. I won't enter that realm. But what is

1:11:25 clear is that I am just wondering. Not just wondering, but also criticizing: how can he remain in that position, and then rules are changed to accommodate the interests or desires of the president? There is also no transparency in the government's priority programs. From the beginning, Tempo has been criticizing the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) program. Why? Because this program is unclear. Amidst fiscal limitations, just to satisfy Prabowo's ambition, the MBG program was created. And we see the corruption is absolutely insane. And this is widespread, there's so much of it. I even met a PDI-P person, a PDI-P politician, and they said, "Well, in our party, the PDI-P which is not in

1:12:10 the government coalition, many of us have kitchens too, right." My friend who is a PDI-P member of the DPR, for example, has three kitchens. It's widespread in the DPR, quite a few have so many, and in the end, who is it? Dadan Hindayana, President Prabowo's trusted confidant. Well, he got caught in that case, the priority program of Kopdes Merah Putih; friends, you can see for yourselves, there are cooperatives way out in the mountains. It makes no sense when this program is forced like that. Then also, regarding law enforcement, there was an attempt after the August 2025 demonstrations, a promise from Prabowo to reform the National Police. What was the result?

1:12:57 Zero. A big zero. Law enforcement. Let's look at the case of the prosecutor, Febri, and the battle with the police; was there any transparency there? Economy. Let's look at the economic growth. What economic growth does Prabowo want? 8%. Do you know why 8%? Does anyone know? Because he likes the number eight. His call sign at the Military Academy was 08. Even until now , his code is 08. So he wants 8%. And that seems impossible to achieve. And every possible way is being attempted. Tempo has also reported on the fake

1:13:44 economic growth, the figures are just fake. Because the assessment indicators were changed so that it could be high. And furthermore, there is a lack of transparency in international diplomacy . Yes, yes, yes. Friends in International Relations can see what our position in the international world is like. What is it that Prabowo brings abroad? MBG. Right? Our country's success is MBG, that's what he brings. While he doesn't see the numbers of more than 40,000 children and perhaps teachers who were poisoned. It's very cruel to me. Little children getting

1:14:32 poisoned, it's just treated as a statistic and stops there. It's really cruel. Meanwhile, those at the top are corrupting such a huge budget, 230 trillion this year if I'm not mistaken, and he brings that to international meetings, and we also see, where is Indonesia actually heading; the position of Indonesia, we have received many stories that even ASEAN countries, Malaysia and Singapore at the very least, are questioning Indonesia's position. Generally, presidents visit Malaysia early in their term. Right, Pak Kus, if I'm not mistaken. Because it's the closest neighboring country. But what is it that Prabowo is actually

1:15:18 doing? Canceling the trip, waiting for how long, right? Because he chose to engage in diplomacy with Russia, with America, and others. I met with a lobbyist. A lobbyist who is close to Jared Kushner. He is Trump's son-in-law , and he said that America, China, and also Russia, they are unhappy with Prabowo, he said. Only God knows if this friend of mine is lying to me. But that is clearly the case, and we see, are we actually being elevated on the international stage, traveling with two planes to other countries, bringing

1:16:04 such a huge entourage, bringing all his attendants along? Yes. Seriously, this is a real story. When the condition of this country is currently struggling. In my view, it is already in a slump. What does the president do? Goes abroad . Where is his favorite place? Where to ? France. Yes, of course I already know , but I am not allowed to say it here. Even if it's edited out, I can't say it because it would definitely impact me. And for me, wow, this president really makes no sense. It means, well, we also see Sugiono, like, what is he even doing? I met with a few people, talked

1:16:49 with diplomats and bureaucrats at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. They are very confused by this particular foreign minister. It’s unclear, there are never any directions given. And he also almost never speaks to the media. Because the diplomacy is led directly by Prabowo, and you can all see for yourselves what the results of Prabowo's diplomacy are. Okay, next. This is the current situation. To summarize a little, the government is authoritarian, that is clear. State tools have become tools of power, like the police and prosecutors. Take the Tom Lembong case, for example. Tom Lembong is actually innocent, but then he was nabbed by the prosecutor's office. It is just so easy. Whatever we

1:17:38 do, even if we are not wrong. They can find faults. And those being targeted for faults right now are mostly entrepreneurs. Why are entrepreneurs being targeted? Because this country needs money. This country has no money. They need large amounts of money from taxes or seizures. Many entrepreneurs have already moved their assets abroad. This is a real occurrence. Entrepreneurs here are also very uncomfortable with our current government. That is it. And why? Because they are being stepped on as, how do I say? As painfully as possible. They have to buy Patriot Bonds, for example; you can read for yourselves what Patriot Bonds are and how they are forced to buy them. And there is

1:18:24 pressure if they don't. uh, not following the Patriot Bond, the legal case is already certain. There is also Bayan, which was then sold at 20%of its original value. I met someone who knows exactly about, uh, the takeover of Bayan, and, uh, the legal pressure, the legal case is massive, as well as the economic interests, you know. Finally, this is the public interest—sorry, previously the public interest was very neglected, that is education, right. What is the condition like right now, it is very clear we have officials,

1:19:09 ministers who are incompetent, you know , uh, and most of them are actually smart people, but that's how it is, when they enter the cabinet they just nod along to, uh, the president, you know, they don't dare to debate. There is not a single minister in the cabinet who dares to debate the president. That is for sure. Uh, they might not dare to debate, and then they also have to fight sleepiness while listening to the president's speeches, which are often wrong too, right. And, and the president, if he gives a speech, or meets with his guests, can talk for 5 hours without stopping. That is extraordinary. Indeed, our president's stamina for speaking is extraordinary. But for working, please judge for

1:19:55 yourselves, friends. Next. Okay. Can we survive? In my opinion, we definitely can. We can definitely survive, you know. Uh, Pak Agus said earlier, "Yes, we definitely can." Uh, and but can we become better? "Yes, there are only two conditions. The government changes, which is impossible . Impossible. We have repeatedly talked about the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) program, there have been so many poisoning cases, the corruption is insane. Why isn't it stopped? From this , it is already clear that our government is not, uh, willing to change. It is impossible, their character change is impossible. This is about, about, uh, nature. There are two diseases, according to my friend. One is a cough, and two is a character. A

1:20:42 cough can be cured, while character cannot. Like that. And we see, uh, not even 2 years, not even 2 years but our condition is already like this. Please, later, if friends have different data, you can debate it. The second is a change of government. What does that mean? There must be, there must be, uh, it's not just easy, you know, Prabowo steps down or Why are you laughing? This is from a constitutional law perspective. Right? All the academics and lecturers here surely agree with what I said. If we want the government to change, one, Prabowo steps down. Only this can produce change. There is

1:21:29 nothing else. Then what if it doesn't change? Unfortunately, if you look at the survey results,,uh, Prabowo's approval rate is very low and even below 50%. If I'm not mistaken, Tempo's figure is around 38%, well, around 40%. That is very low. His electability is far behind compared to KDM, Dedi Mulyadi. Very far, and unfortunately, I believe this is also based on conversations with survey institutes. If, then, if then the election were held today, could Prabowo still win? With that kind of approval rate and that kind of electability, could

1:22:15 Prabowo still win? In my opinion, I am sure Prabowo would definitely still win . Why? Because as I already explained, there are instruments of power, state apparatus that have become tools for those in power, and the current plundering of our budget is extraordinary. The incumbent has logistics that are far more than enough to win the election up to 2029 or even right now. Yes, this is an analysis, of course. We have to wait and see if Prabowo will step down or not. I think that's more or less all from me for now . Thank you.

1:23:01 Okay, thank you, Mas Pramono. Very interesting insights, indeed. It's true , there's a subtle leak, just as Mbak Indri said. Maybe later we can talk about which parts need to be edited, Mas. Can we survive? We can if the government changes, but the problem is, can our government change? That was the statement from Mas Pram. Okay. Thank you to the speakers for being willing to share their insights. Right now we will open for, what do you call it? A discussion or Q&A session.