Real Talk - Proposal Indonesia "Ndlosor" Banget

IDN Times www.youtube.com

Brief Summary

This video features a discussion on the implications of potential reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States on Indonesia, following a "love letter" from then US President Donald Trump. The conversation explores the diplomatic and economic strategies Indonesia might adopt, the importance of strong international relations, and the need to bolster domestic economic resilience.

  • Impact of Trump's "love letter" and potential tariffs on Indonesia.
  • Strategies for Indonesia to navigate trade negotiations and maintain sovereignty.
  • The role of diplomacy and the importance of filling key ambassadorial positions.
  • Strengthening domestic economic capacity to mitigate risks from international trade policies.

Introduction

The host, Uni Lubis, introduces Sudirman Said, head of the State Hark Institute, to discuss current hot topics, particularly the impact of a "love letter" from then US President Donald Trump regarding reciprocal tariffs. The discussion aims to provide insights into the situation, considering Sudirman Said's background as an anti-corruption activist and former Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources.

Background on the Trade Situation

The conversation begins by explaining that President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs to several of America's trading partners to balance the trade deficit. Indonesia has a surplus of $18 billion with the U.S., but Trump is also focused on non-tariff barriers. The host and guest discuss the implications of Trump's approach, which is perceived as a boss-to-subordinate tone, reminiscent of the New Order era when Indonesia signed a letter of intent with the IMF during the 1996 monetary crisis.

Trump's Leadership Style and Impact on Diplomacy

Sudirman Said shares his perspective on Trump's leadership style, noting that Trump's approach to international relations is often uncompromising and lacks diplomatic finesse. He suggests that Trump's background as a businessman, who grew linearly in one sector, influences his perception of power as absolute. Despite understanding Trump's character, Sudirman Said emphasizes that Indonesia shouldn't panic, as exports to the U.S. account for 9.9% of total exports and only 2.2% of GDP.

Indonesia's Proposed Trade Offer

The discussion shifts to Indonesia's offer to the U.S. to fight for tariff reductions, which includes large-scale imports of energy, food, agriculture, and high-tech products, as well as investments. Sudirman Said expresses concern that these promises might be too generous and could limit Indonesia's flexibility to secure cheaper supplies from other countries. He also points out that investment promises depend on private sector willingness.

Decline in International Diplomacy and Prabowo's Role

Sudirman Said observes a decline in Indonesia's international diplomacy during President Jokowi's two terms, noting Jokowi's apparent lack of interest in global affairs. He contrasts this with President Prabowo's active presence in international forums. Sudirman Said stresses the importance of balancing physical presence with substantive concepts and support to ensure confident actions and negotiations.

Analysis of Indonesia's Trade Proposal

The host presents graphics detailing Indonesia's proposal, including a total purchase of $34 billion in U.S. products, with $15 billion allocated to energy products handled by Pertamina. Sudirman Said questions the necessity of importing certain types of oil from the U.S., considering the logistical challenges and the availability of cheaper alternatives from OPEC countries. He suggests Pertamina should negotiate based on their needs rather than implementing a state-dictated decision.

Geopolitical Considerations and Diplomacy

Sudirman Said highlights that the interests at play may extend beyond commercial aspects to include geopolitical considerations, particularly in the South China Sea. He emphasizes the need for Indonesia to maintain a non-aligned stance, balancing relations with both China and the U.S. He also points out that Vietnam secured a better deal by sending a negotiation team that stayed until a decision was reached, indicating the importance of serious diplomatic engagement.

Importance of Continuous Diplomatic Presence

The discussion underscores the significance of continuous diplomatic presence, particularly in important countries like the U.S. The host presents data showing extended periods without an Indonesian ambassador in the U.S., which Sudirman Said views as a sign of not taking the relationship seriously. He stresses that maintaining strong networks and consistent representation is crucial for protecting Indonesia's interests.

Strategies for Navigating Trade Challenges

Looking ahead, Sudirman Said advises against panicking and suggests strengthening domestic capacity. This includes building alliances with disappointed countries, strengthening the domestic economy through labor-intensive programs, and fostering a united, resilient citizenry. He also emphasizes the importance of mitigating potential job losses due to declining exports by creating employment opportunities domestically.

Addressing Concerns About Chinese Products

The conversation addresses concerns that high tariffs could lead to Indonesia being flooded with Chinese products unable to enter the U.S. Sudirman Said suggests this could be an opportunity to build manufacturing plants in Indonesia. He also notes that American consumers may suffer due to higher prices, and Indonesia should focus on efficient production to minimize the impact of tariffs.

The Role of Networks and Anticipating Trump's Actions

The importance of utilizing existing business networks to continue exporting is highlighted, drawing a comparison to Vietnam's successful approach. The guest and host discuss the need to anticipate Trump's actions, given his campaign promises to create jobs and "make America great again." The two-year gap in ambassadorial presence during the transition from Biden to Trump is seen as a missed opportunity to safeguard Indonesia's interests.

Indonesia's Participation in the BRICS Summit

The discussion touches on President Prabowo's attendance at the BRICS Summit and Indonesia's official announcement as the 10th member. Sudirman Said suggests this could be viewed in two ways: potentially hardening Trump's stance or being irrelevant if his decision is already made. He emphasizes the importance of supporting Indonesia's free and active diplomacy with substance and clear objectives in both BRICS and relations with the U.S.

Balancing Relationships and Strategic Positioning

Sudirman Said shares an example from his time as minister, when he rejoined Indonesia as a member of OPEC to associate with producers, while also pushing for membership in the renewable energy group under the OECD. This illustrates the importance of connecting with various blocs to strengthen Indonesia's position. The host reveals that Indonesia's proposal includes eliminating tariffs on digital products, guaranteeing cross-border data flow, and closer cooperation on economic and national security, including maritime policies in the South China Sea.

Concerns About Sacrificing Sovereignty

The host raises concerns about Indonesia potentially sacrificing sovereignty in negotiations, given the strategic elements included in the proposal. Sudirman Said agrees that Indonesia may have lost its bargaining position by being too generous. He suggests anticipating the worst-case scenario and finding solutions to mitigate risks, given Trump's unpredictable nature.

Assessment of the Ambassador Candidate

The discussion concludes with an assessment of the ambassador candidate, Indroyono Susilo Sudarman. Sudirman Said disagrees with a comment from a senior friend and describes Mas Indro as a diligent worker, idealist, and academic with long experience and ties to America. He expresses hope that Mas Indro can be a good bridge and that his polite and humble nature will help him navigate relations with the U.S.

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Transcript

Full transcript of “Real Talk - Proposal Indonesia "Ndlosor" Banget”. Click a timestamp to open the video at that moment. Need another video? Use the YouTube transcript generator.

0:01 [Music] Hi Milena Jensi, how are you? I hope you are all well. See you again on the Real Talk with Uni Lubis program. Ee in this program I usually always invite resource persons who can explain the ins and outs of an event, behind-the-scenes stories, points of view, yeah ee about issues that are currently hot. And my source is actually an old friend, I've known him for a long time and he's been interviewed by ID and Times, but I've never interviewed him in person. So, let's just get straight to it,

0:47 welcome, Bang Sudirman Said, the head of the institute, the State Hark Institute, which has received a leak that it will become a university. Amen. Amen. Yes, so ee thank you for inviting me on short notice because yesterday we both participated in the program ee very, very important event ee well ee Gerakan Nurani Bangsa yeah. ee who talks about various current situations from various perspectives ee I immediately pointed it there. But actually, I've been checking, I've been contacting, I've been WhatsApping my Bang Sudaro since last week, but I think it was to the other number. No no no yes the number is

1:33 no reply. No reply. Then ee then Bang Sudirman gave me ee number. Thank you also for the tilted photo yesterday that was Candid. But like this, bro. Usually in this program, I usually dig into 20% of the personal track, 80% of the substance. Yes, we will discuss a very hot issue, namely the impact of the love letter from the President of the United States, Donald Trump, on July 7, 2025, which responded to the proposal for reciprocal tariffs submitted by Indonesia, because it is not only Indonesia but many countries around the world. Because on April 2nd, President Trump

2:21 announced reciprocal tariffs to a number of America's trading partner countries around the world, the aim of which was actually to balance the trade deficit between America and its partner countries. With Indonesia, we do have a surplus of 18 billion dollars. So he doesn't want to, huh? But actually, what Trump prioritizes more is non- tariff barriers. That's why there are so many people in what's it called? delivered on ee on April 2nd for Indonesia yes. And then we respond. Well, but before the first question, you young people must know first,

3:08 who is the figure I'm going to chat with, anyway. So, Bang Sud Said, for me and many of my fellow journalists, is always in my mind as one of the founders of the Indonesian Transparency Society. Very active in anti-corruption movements. ee he was once the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources in the era of ee President Jokowi from 2014 to 2016. ee was also once a gubernatorial candidate in Central Java, yes, e paired with Mbak Ida Fauziyah, yes. Actually, at that time, the voice was that he didn't lose much, and that was quite surprising compared to almost winning,

3:54 but almost losing was better, he said. compared to the one at that time, ee, at that time the incumbent was the incumbent, Mas Ganjar Pranowo, ee, many people looked down on this pair because compared to the incumbent who was very popular, but it turned out that if I'm not mistaken, 4 43 42, ee, 42%, then then now I'm still the Secretary General of the Red Cross, I'm in the organizational field, the head of the organizational field, the head of the organizational field, so ee ee, and what's the long name? I have to read it for 1 minute so that everyone knows that I was once in charge. Meanwhile, Rector Paramadia was Deputy Head of the Implementing Agency for Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of BRR Aceh Nias after the

4:41 tsunami on December 26, 2004. Then he was at Pertamina, Executive Director of Apek CO Summit 2013, President Director of PT Pindat. There are so many of them . Earlier I mentioned the Minister of Human Resources too. So, this is long, what is it called, ee, its history, but I always remember Bang Sudirman as an anti-corruption activist and ee, the founder, yes, the founder, one of the founders of the Indonesian Transparency Society . Well, ee Bang Sudirman, so we got a love letter, a love letter with two exclamation marks, right?

5:27 But it turns out that the 14 countries that President Trump sent love letters to on July 7th had a very template format. exactly the same as the exclamation mark also with the language that I feel like it's the same, it's just the numbers are different, we mean it's still 32% according to the number 2 April 2, but I, as a citizen, feel like the letter is like from the boss to his subordinates, the ton is from the boss to his subordinates, then I remember the New Order era, ee E, when Michael Kamdesu, the executive director of the IMF International Motor Fund , you can find lots of pictures on the

6:14 internet, right? President Suoto signed a letter of intent, yes, for the time when we were experiencing the monetary crisis in 1996, then Michael Kus was like this. It may not be like that now, but the letter depicts Indonesia as a country that has become America's lackey in Trump's eyes. What do you think, Bang Sudirman? Thank you, Miss Uni. So this is my view, this is the view of the community. Just because I am not a diplomat, I am not a politician who is directly involved in this problem. But I also feel the same atmosphere. Although if we talk about Trump's character, Trump is

7:00 like that. Even when we chat with US friends, we feel like we are experiencing a very uncomfortable atmosphere. Something like that. Hehe. So it's true that Ton and Manor are like he's deciding something without compromise. Are you coming or not? I'm up to the orit ticket. There are threats. That's right. That's right. In fact, it was said that there would be no more negotiations. If you don't want to, then we will do it. But actually, perhaps when compared to the atmosphere in 1998, when Kamdesu signed or witnessed Pak Harto signing the letter of intent, the atmosphere was different because it was like he was guarding his house H and felt that his house was threatened because the

7:46 deficit was continuously increasing while he had the ambition to improve his economic position. Well, a little note for Trump, I think this is the other side of a leader who grows linearly in one sector. H, he appears to be quite a strong businessman, right? Then he continued to build his business until he finally became, let's say, very rich and then entered politics. Hey. Even throughout his business career, he never had any contact with the police. Yes So when he enters power he usually becomes the boss, which means absolute power. That's right. That's right. So he sees that power as his own. Ee, in fact, in public policy, especially regarding international diplomacy, it cannot be done like that,

8:31 even though it is a new phenomenon. So I have a mixed feeling that we understand Trump's character like that. But secondly, if we look at our trade portion with America, we are actually concerned, we may be a bit concerned, but we don't have to panic because the portion of all our exports to America is 9.9%, while if calculated by GDP, of total exports, while if linked to GDP, it is only 2.2%, so yes, there will definitely be an impact, there will be an impact, there may be a decrease, there may also be an increase in prices there, even though the burden falls on the American people, but relative to the economy, it is actually manageable. Well, that's why

9:19 actually if you look at what was offered to America to fight for tariff reductions Heeh. It could be seen as us being too reckless, offering too much for something that is actually a waste, it's like we're giving it up, it's like we're really giving up, giving up on the transport quota, right? Hey. Because actually there are two big components, right? One promised to import on a large scale. Hehe. Yes, it's all kinds of products, energy, food, agriculture and so on, those are high-tech products, like airplanes. Then buy American products. Buying means we import. Secondly, we promise to invest. That's right. Ee Indorama is called yes

10:04 what is the factory to build a factory there. Private. In fact, there are two problems, Ms. Uni. One we make big promises in the long term that can eliminate our flexibility to get cheaper supplies , better perhaps because we are friends with the neighbors. If the investment promise depends on the terms and conditions, whether the investor, who is a private sector, is willing to enter there or not. So there are many that might ee what overing is too much so that maybe ee can weaken our position. If it's possible to hope, yes, of course we have to work hard, but we can't panic

10:50 and we can't look like we're begging. That will make us have more dignity, right? Well, why do I say that? Just a little bit more. In fact, during our two presidential terms, our international diplomacy has declined. Because President Jokowi doesn't seem to care much. That's right. Our president in the global arena has somewhat disappeared. Hehe. Now, in the last 8 months, President Prabowo's presence in various international forums has been very noticeable, and yes, he is a kind of person, it seems his focus is there. Yes So in my opinion we have to balance it with substance, with

11:36 concept, with support so that the physical presence and confident gesture are then followed by actions or negotiations that also show that confidence. Yes I once interviewed Mr. Hasan Wiray, former foreign minister, very senior diplomat, now rector of Prasetya Mulia University. Mr. Hasan called President Prabowo a foreign diplomacy president because he is the one who directly handles our foreign diplomacy. Yes So, that's probably one of his strengths, especially since he speaks many foreign languages. It's the same when he's lined up with other heads of state. It's fun to see him, like

12:24 when he's chatting with President Macron or here, he speaks French, right? Well, maybe before I continue, to give you some context, we'll also show you the graphics. So, our proposal is a total purchase of US products worth 34 billion US dollars, or actually our total proposal is around 500 ee, around 540 trillion ee. Yes So, for the first one, of course, the largest amount, 15 billion dollars, is the purchase of energy products, with the total imports reaching 15 billion. This one will be carried out by Pertamina I

13:10 ee in the form of LPG ee, then crude oil, gasoline, yes. So we will import LPJ increasing by 70%, we will import crude oil from America increasing by 38%, and EE gasoline increasing by 70%. Ee then for agricultural products it is 4.5 billion ee US dollars. Soybeans, oilcakes, soybeans, wheat yes, cotton. So everything is increasing, we increase imports from there. And it's not just the government sector that will do this. If earlier Pertamina was a state-owned company, but the private sector is Indofood, Kgil, and then Indorama for cotton because Indorama is one of our textile giants. Then ee

13:57 potential commercial cooperation in the aviation ee sector we buy additional aircraft procurement products by Garuda worth 3.2 billion until 2029. Then the combined value of existing and additional aircraft maintenance services from the United States is estimated to reach 11.2 billion dollars until 2041. Well, this investment plan ee promised Indonesia promised that Indorama, which will also import cotton, will invest ee to build a factory there worth ee 10 billion dollars. So, from the beginning, ee what's it called, ee, we at IDN have heard that the government is involving the

14:44 private sector. Hey, who can help so we can negotiate the 32% rate? Let's discuss it from the energy side first , bro. Yes So we received information that Pertamina actually no longer needs to import the type of oil that is mostly produced by the United States . We still need light weight crude as a net importer because the former Minister of ISDM imported heavy weight crude mostly from the Middle East, but there may also be countries from Africa, but so far we have only imported from Singapore. If we import from America, besides, it is said that it is true or not, we do not need that type. Secondly, transportation from America to

15:31 Indonesia is much more expensive than from Singapore to Indonesia. So this is a burden for Pertamina, right? Before that, if you heard that those who would be invited to collaborate to purchase products, invest, and so on, there were private companies, there was Mrs. MN. The other side is actually a good sign. This means that we are able to organize Indonesia to incorporate common interests and then use them as negotiation material. But now we're talking about energy. Hey, if we talk about supply, we need two elements. One is called security of supply. This means long-term contact, whatever the product, and in fact, we can do most of it because we already know what it will be like next year or 10 years from now. The other side is called

16:18 flexibility, right? Hey. Well, what will be done in this format is something that has a long-term seat . And is it best to buy from America? My intuition says no. Because firstly we are still a member of OPEC. We can sit down with the OPEC countries even though we are no longer a massive net exporter . There are still exports but they are not large. we can meet every 3 months with the ministers ee producers ee oil gas and all sorts. And I experienced myself that friendship like that happens when we talk about what we need in a certain period of time and we can get terms that sometimes appear on the journey. Well, if we are

17:04 already tied to one party, we will lose that opportunity. Hehe. Secondly, the question was about the type of crutches. It is true that some of our refineries are still in the less complexity category. This means it can only process heavy wrinkles. Ee then the product is also limited. But actually in recent times they have been trying although not entirely successful. So the complexity is increased by adding elements to be able to produce all kinds of krut. So, do you need a crew from the US? It might be necessary, but from a logistical perspective, the distance is far. From the price perspective, perhaps we can negotiate with larger scale producers

17:50 . Hehe. So actually, from that side, besides the supply issue, it's also the same, but Pertamina will be the one buying it later, right? Yes Well, it would be better if Pertamina also negotiated if they needed it. So it's not that the state decides and then corporations become the implementers of the decision, which doesn't necessarily mean they will get the best benefit from the state's decision. Hey. But this is already in the proposal. Well, that means, especially Pertamina, it's like, eh, Pertamina has to participate, right? And this is already in the proposal and the proposal that Bang Su said earlier, we already have a number, apparently made ee Trump not budge because he is still 32

18:36 . Yes There are even those who think that in fact there may already be a decision whether the decision will be lower or remain the same. So our case meter shows whatever they stay in that position. Hmm. What we should pay attention to is perhaps this is my common sense as a citizen who often reads like that. H, perhaps the interests are not merely commercial, but there are also non-commercial aspects. For example, he ee in geopolitical affairs in South China , the South China Sea, he needs friends. So here, our diplomacy is actually being tested. Can what Mr Prabowo said really be done,

19:22 meaning rowing between two non-aligned islands, free and active in all sorts of ways? If we talk to our Chinese or American diplomat friends or friends who pay attention to us, they both seem to be hoping for something like this. For America, what is important is that Indonesia does not lean too much towards China. And vice versa. Yes, it means that if we can take a standpoint that we have the position mentioned earlier, that we have something to offer and can be a counterbalance to the two powers, ee, returning to the diplomatic capabilities that ee Mr. Hasan Wirayuda mentioned earlier, yes, as

20:08 ee, a president who truly carries out direct diplomacy. I think it would be better than asking for anything to be given. Hmm. Well, besides that, we also have notes, for example, we hear, right? Heeh. when April was announced on April 2nd yeah. Why did Vietnam get such a good deal on April 2nd? because the one who contacted the highest leader of the party there directly, like here, at the presidential level, yes, basically, eh, the highest leader, that's the top leader, but what's more amazing is that a negotiation team was sent that didn't come home until they got the decision, almost 90 days, yes,

20:53 almost 90 days, they said, so July 9th, 90 days, means 90-2 because on the 7th, the letter came out, it's not that we don't have people there, of course, we also have workers at the embassy. But in a gesture it shows that they are serious. Well, in my opinion, diplomacy is not just about official meeting rooms . That's right. In fact, what is more important than socializing behind the desk is usually the backdoor. Well, for example, the Singapore Dub here has three periods that are not changed. Correct. In the past, Mr Edard Li was 11 to 12 years old, Mr Asok ee Mirpuri was 8 years old. It always takes a long time. Because they think we are so

21:39 important, right? Well, I mean, while we're in America, if America is considered important, how often our offices are empty. Hmm. Ee especially since Mr. Jokowi. Yes Yes 3 years of course there is a turnaround. But before replacing it, empty it first. Then there was time. Hehe. There is data. Let's try reading it. So, it will be in the graphics, right? Mr. Dino Pati Jalal 3 years 1 month August 10, 2010 September 17, 2013. Yes. Then after that, it was empty for 4 months and 27 days before Mr. Budi Bowelono and Mr. Sony came in . Then quite a long time 4 years 10 months 24 days. Then continued Mr. Mahendra Siregar, now the chairman of the OJK, yes, it was

22:27 only for a short time, 9 months and 18 days, then it was empty for 10 months and 19 days. Yes Then continued with Mr. Muhammad Luthfi, yes, he was 3 months and 9 days old because he was immediately pulled in during the busy Abraham Accord period. I remember that and it appeared there, eh, it's not an issue, actually, there were approaches during the Trump era too, eh, in the first period, we were approached to open relations with Israel, right, because Mbak Heren had opened relations, so eh, it was like that. So, Mr. Muhammad Lutfi was invited more often by Mr. Luhud to meet about this matter, right? Yes Then 01 month 1 day yes December 23, 2020 to

23:15 October 24, 2021 I was vacant. Then October 25, Mr. Rosan Roslani was appointed who served for 1 year 8 months 22 days. Then, from July 17, 2003 until now, 2 years, yes, 2 years, it was empty and just last Saturday and Sunday, the candidate was Mr. Dwi Suryo Indroyono Susilo, whose father was Mr. Susilo Jana, so I went to school there in America, ee, was in fit and properties by the DPR. So, if you look at the TRK record, this one is the longest. But previously we had a TRK record, but the Ambassador position was empty for quite a long time .

24:00 Why is that? Therefore, with all due respect to our Foreign Minister, Mrs. Retno, who has been working hard all this time. But indeed, there are aspects that escape attention. What this means is, it should be important countries like America, eh maybe China, maybe Japan, right? Hehe. Don't let that relationship loosen because we are so dependent on economic matters with them, including the economy. So if only we were so strict about guarding the goal, maybe it would be a different story. Although we could say that Trump's decision is irrelevant. Is there an ambassador or not? But

24:47 because it applies to all countries that ee does not experience a duas vacuum. That's right. But if only our team was strong enough to be there continuously, those networks would be there like Vietnam or like Singapore here. So, maybe this can be a kind of lesson, and uh, this is Jokowi's era, which is long. Yes Don't know why. So, it's a shame that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs must have reminded us at that time because they know the importance of this post. But for some reason, the President at that time was Mr. Jokowi and there were many career diplomats who could fill that position, right? Yes Yes Oh. So, according to Bang Sudirman, does diplomacy play a role in the diplomatic negotiation team?

25:37 Does it play a role in making it? It turns out we don't know until August 1st when 32nd comes into effect. So there's a 3 week window, right? Room for more negotiation. Eh, that's related to the appointment of ambassadors, this also still needs a long time, right? Hehe. First ask for approval whether this is accepted or not, then the letter of trust and so on. So it can't have an instant effect on it. Hehe. But we can also say that it is possible that Trump will still make the decision as he planned. Hehe. I just said earlier that a number of countries that we really have very, very important interests in, right? Very significant. Hehe. It would be better if in

26:23 football perhaps the man to mark should be maintained. That's right. Hehe. Hey, as a diplomat, we are often contacted by friends from Singapore, from England, Mr. Eduard Lim still likes to come here. When I was still a reporter, I knew him and there was a seminar where he attended . He is what makes relationships personal so that when we need help from them, we can call them any time and then become friends to find solutions. Well, if we limit ourselves to formal relationships, there are indeed limitations to our room for movement. So, looking ahead, I might say there's not much we can do

27:09 except wait. But then again, what is our attitude? In my opinion, our attitude is that we don't need to panic because the portion of the trade relationship is not that significant, although of course it has an impact. Well, what needs to be done perhaps is to strengthen domestic capacity. So, for example, the first one was friends with countries that were disappointed, right? I want to build an alliance so that if there is someone who can get a higher rate than us. So we can still compete, right? Yes, it's the same if we need alternative supplies, we also have neighbors. Second, the domestic economy is strengthened. This means that perhaps labor-intensive programs

27:54 can create more jobs. Hey. Well, of course there will be a threat due to the decline in exports which will have an impact on employment, so it must be balanced by creating employment opportunities elsewhere. Well, the third thing that needs to be done is to remain united, what is the term, global citizens who have character, who have a standpoint where we are not easily dragged by such pulls. And I think the ability of our president, if supported by the ability of our diplomats, will make a difference . Because our mainstay export products to America are generally

28:41 labor-intensive, apparel, shoe manufacturing, and palm oil, palm oil. So, there is a study by our research institute which says that it could reduce employment by up to 1.2 million jobs. So we should immediately think about what the mitigation is. Well, regarding shoes, for example, actually, we have a population of 280 million, so everyone needs shoes, so there must be a program that ensures that our shoe market is very large, you know, our school children, or how many tens of millions of them ? This is what might also be able to

29:26 absorb the product. I think it will stimulate creativity from economic designers. ee how to shift this risk ee to domestic strength and as it was said earlier, we also provide free nutritious food for example, why don't we not why do we have to import the trend as long as ee yes, we should be able to produce our own trays and there will be 82.9 million beneficiaries of which until today there are only 7 million. This means that there should be 70 million trays that should be produced by the domestic industry. Don't import anymore. Yes, and that can absorb new jobs and then turn the economy around

30:11 too. Yes Because one of the things that has been worrying since April 2nd, Bro, is that once we are hampered from entering the American market due to the high tariffs, then China will also be hampered tremendously because actually one of America's main destinations is Chinese products, which have been thought to possibly enter through various countries in this region that have cheaper tariffs, ee entry costs, then our country will become a place flooded with Chinese products that cannot enter America. How can we prevent that from happening? That's perhaps something that wasn't said, that maybe America was suspicious that we would become a

30:58 center or a hub. Then it was stamped as if it were Indonesian production . In free trade, this can happen because we buy goods more cheaply and then we sell them again at a certain price with a certain margin. Hey. But actually, this is a good opportunity, for example, if it lasts a long time because building a manufacturing plant can't be done quickly. Yes, you need to prepare the factory, you need to prepare the workforce, machines and so on. So it's not easy to just suddenly be transferred to Indonesia like that. So ee this is more of a political and diplomatic war than as if ee Trump wants to restore his industrial capabilities. That's not it.

31:44 Well, because if it's produced in America it will definitely be more expensive. That's right. American consumers should be protesting. Is that true? So one time, Mr. JK invited me to meet the Cambodian leader, Hunsen Senior. He said that the American people were actually the ones who suffered the most because they suddenly had to pay higher taxes and higher prices . So we should be calmer. The important thing is how to position yourself to produce as efficiently as possible so that even if additional tariffs are imposed, the impact is not too big. Hey. Well, we will actually only be affected by approximately 10% because what is affected is a third of the entire ee what is it called ee aggregate exports, right?

32:30 Yes So maybe it's like we're being attacked politically again . Hey. But maybe economically it might not be too significant. So, how do you use the networks that businessmen might already have , so that exporters can continue to work there, just like the Vietnam team did. So that when the final decision is made, at least we can convey a lot through the various existing networks, right? Because actually, when ee, when April 2nd, one of the criticisms of Indonesian youth was that actually when Trump became president, we should have prepared for it, we should have known that Trump would do this

33:15 because this was part of his campaign promise to create jobs, then what is it called ee ee ensuring that ee America, yes, make America get back, we should have anticipated it, not been like a surprise on April 2nd. And now the enemy isn't surprised either. We hope that there will be a counter, eh, is there a second of what Mr. Airlangga said? There is a second, eh, proposal, yes, over second, which hopefully can be convincing, but yes, Trump is Trump and let's see, yes, the two empty years are two very important years of transition from Biden to Trump, which we know earlier that there will be massive changes in the police, it should be,

34:02 what if we play football, the goalkeeper must be strong. Don't let there be any sudden goals like that. So, in my opinion, the two years of absence are something that can be interpreted as a sign that we are not serious about protecting our interests there. And hopefully, that will be a lesson for the future that yes, there are many countries that we must guard continuously, inhabited or filled or led by people who have capabilities not only in diplomacy but also understand economics, understand that with China, we have been with Bank Jauhari until now, it seems like it has been 6 years, entering its sixth year, which shows that we consider China important. Well, that was

34:48 read by someone over there, perhaps you too, do n't you remember in the beginning how diligently our President went to China? Going to China has been reminded by the Minister of Foreign Affairs several times, while America hasn't had time yet . So, including President Prabowo, as soon as he was inaugurated, the first person he visited was China, although he did mention to Chester that he wanted to meet Tran immediately, so now we are being tested on whether our free and active policy, whether our diplomacy, which is said to be sailing between two islands and two reefs, will be effective. And I wanted to repeat once again that on the surface our stage is good.

35:33 Hey. But behind the stage, it must be filled and must be filled by people who are diligent in the process of maintaining the network and then ee continuously me what becomes part of what fills the substance. Yes. Two last questions. So, it's natural that if Javanese people say, this is me, this is Tegal, this is my mother, Jogja. So we answer dilalah. Dilalah, the date is the 7th, July 7th, right? Ee love letter with two exclamation marks. This could be used as a novel title. A love letter with two exclamation marks from Trump with ya kan. It was on those days that Perbowo also attended the Brick Summit in Rio de Hanore in Brazil.

36:20 Yes Then there was a photo together, including representatives from Iran, perhaps the foreign minister or something, a country that is currently in the spotlight of America in the context of Israel's war with Iran. I President Putin for the reason that he was threatened, he said that if he did so, he could be arrested by the international court or whatever, all of that was done virtually. The President of China, Jin Ping, sent his Prime Minister, e Likeng, who had previously also been to Jakarta. Did Bang Sudman see that in the last days Trump saw that Indonesia was

37:06 playing around with others, playing around with others, right? Then it's official again, so it was officially announced that he was the 10th member. I have to make a disclaimer. I am not a foreign policy observer, but my common sense as someone who has been in government and then ee hangs out with friends in diplomatic circles. In my opinion, it can be considered that it can be seen from two sides. It is possible that the result will then become even harder. Hehe. But it could also be that my decision has already been made. It's like I'm imagining what people used to do in the past, right? Make letters that automatically come out of the printer, you know. Yes Yes Yes So, you've been given a list of so-and-so, a certain percentage, and then you take it out and demonstrate your signature in front of the media, right?

37:52 So maybe it's just the way it is. Hehe. But ee it is possible that the presence in Brick ee is a driving force although in my opinion that was in the context of diplomacy which is called free and active, that is the standing point status which is interesting in my opinion that yes we are having business with America but because we have decided to join the bloc there, we come and establish relations with all of them, yes exactly ee ee E so if only we had the capacity to support ee the substance, in my opinion what are we talking about with BRI? With ee with America what are we talking about? I have an interesting example. When I was

38:39 minister, I returned Indonesia to being a member of OPEC. Hmm. With a very simple mind. We import 800,000 barrels every year every day . H imported it from them. Hey. Then why don't we hang out with them? So, by becoming a member of OPEK, we are associating with producers. Just as I said in the DPR, when we shop for rice, we should meet with farmers so we can get cheap troops and it works, so to speak. That means there is an impact. Hehe. But at the same time, I also pushed for Indonesia to become a member of the renewable energy group, eh, under the OCD, which is called the International Energy Association. Hmm. Actually, we are still this, not Irena, right?

39:24 No, no. It's different, that official association, eh, its members are WCD countries. Actually, we, the youngsters, are nothing because the portion is very small. But what happened was that after we attended the meeting several times, we came to this conclusion. Our friends in the OPEC countries said that if we want to get along with the OECD, we should just ask Indonesia to be a bridge . He was a member, but what member was he at that time? Trial member yes. Hehe. But di di dad also said so. We must connect with fossil producers because we cannot go it alone. Why don't we go through Indonesia, which is still part of Opek, actually has a very tiny role, right? A very thin role actually. But

40:11 in such a relationship every opportunity must be taken advantage of. Hey. Well, imagine if we had remained on our own path as members of the right bloc, the left bloc, the front bloc, the back bloc, it would have strengthened our position, which of course had to be balanced between the narratives that emerged on the President's stages and the substantial preparations behind the scenes. Yes, this is probably something that not many people know, but coincidentally, IDN Times has the complete proposal. So, earlier we were talking about purchasing, negotiations. But actually in the introductory ee section, one ee is about tariffs, then two non-tariff barriers, three trade and

40:58 digital technology, yes, we ee ee promise to eliminate tariffs and import declaration obligations on digital products, not impose BE on electronic transmissions, guaranteed cross-border data flow. This increasingly shows that we are noosor. But part of point four is economic and national security. Hey. Agreeing to closer cooperation with the United States in the economy and national security through maritime policies in brackets except for the acceleration of the ratification of the borders of the exclusive economic zone of the Republic of Indonesia and Vietnam, closing brackets, and export controls, increasing military cooperation, the use of secure communication technology , and strengthening border surveillance and control, especially in the South China Sea . So, with Indonesia beyond

41:48 buying and selling goods. But there is actually something more strategic. My question to Mr. Suwan is, how should Indonesia position itself in negotiations without sacrificing this aspect of Indonesian sovereignty with all respect? As soon as we first came up with such an offer. He is generous or what we call a loser. So, relatively speaking, we seem to have lost our positioning, our bargaining position. Hey. So, yeah, now it's already been opened like that and I'm the one who opened it, but no one stopped me either. This is how we can get this information,

42:34 right? This is the greatness of Kuningis. So, it is indeed difficult for us now to make a new argument that ee what is it called? We deserve better treatment. So, in my opinion, the most likely thing is to anticipate the worst case scenario and from there, we can find solutions on how to mitigate the risks that will arise. Eh, because back in front of us we said a Trump is trump and he is very unpredictable, right? Yes Yes Using power as if it were his personal property, without

43:20 paying attention to diplomatic politeness that has been applied in the world of diplomacy. So, we sympathize with our friends, with our friends who are now in the government who are part of this negotiation process. But we hope that we will pray for the best and it seems that there are actually many ways for us to handle the risks, for example, even if it turns out that we don't get better treatment than 32%. That's right. Okay. The very last one. Is the figure of our ambassador candidate, Indrayono Susilo Sudarman, fit for the current situation or

44:08 landscape of Indonesia-America relations? I don't agree with my senior friend's comment. But Mas Indro is a diligent worker. Hey. An idealist, an academic who will definitely study it diligently. And you've been to FAO, right? Yes Once. So, so he has long experience. Ee America is perhaps a second home for him because when his father was there, his sons and daughters also went to school there. I was once on the same campus as one of his younger siblings. So, we hope that Mas Indro can be a good bridge and he is very polite, is very ee what is it called? Oh, okay. He's a good person, a humble person like that. So

44:54 maybe ee will be able to catch trum. So it's not correct. So don't put gas on gas, okay? So hopefully it can be done and we pray that Mas Indro will be successful. Okay, thank you, Bang Sudan. You said very insightfully about this hot issue that we are still having. I think this issue will continue to be hot until at least August 1st. We want to know because Mr. Erlangga Hartarto from Brazil immediately flew to Washington DC to directly lead the negotiations. Ee ee of course we will hope that there will be better results for Indonesia. Thank you to all of you who have watched e Real Talk with Unul Lubis and see you in the next program. Regards.

45:41 Thank You. Thank You.

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