Stock Market CRASH: THE MOMENT OF TRUTH!!!!! Will Support Hold or Break? A CRASH is Inevitable!!!

0:05 Stock market fill again today. The Dow down 20 almost four points down44%. The S&P down 18 points to close down uh27%. Again, we rebounded off of the lows of the session but didn't close at the highs. S&P closed at 660. Uh NASDAQ down 28% the Russell was up 65% and the VIX was down one uh point down 4.11% to close at 24. VIX is predicting an up day for tomorrow for the S&P. there's an 85% chance it happens uh and a 15% chance that it doesn't based on the historical closes of the VIX

0:53 of 10% moves or greater. There still could be concerns about crude oil moving above 119. The seasonality is likely going to go on until the summer like it did in 2008 when crude oil peaked in July of 2008. The stock market had already topped and began the crash to kick off the beer market. Recession already began and inflation was rising. Crude oil was rising, but eventually we had a deflationary bust. Crude oil crashed and so did inflation. You're likely going to see something similar to that here. Crude oil had a rally during the session, but it fizzled by the end of the session and uh eased off of the

1:39 highs. So, we got a market rebound during the session uh dropping under the 200 period moving averages and we were down 1.38% again. Is this diversions done or does it become much bigger? Do we end up taking out this level? We don't have to. The RSI doesn't look at the uh the the topping tail here, the wick, but we could still try to go higher. Right now, we're testing our 10 period moving average over the last two days. Got that bullish golden cross here with the 50 above the 200. At some point, we'll get a bigger pullback. Does it happen now or do we go higher first? But there's still risk of going higher

2:26 with crude oil. So do keep that in mind. Had the hot PPI inflation number inflation wholesale inflation rising for four straight months in a row coming in hot with that and crude oil surging again. There could be real concerns that the Fed can't cut. They kept their their estimate uh for just one cut for 2026 and they're waiting and seeing. Uh eventually they're going to have to choose between either raising rates or keep keeping them elevated to combat inflation or support the economy. And in the past they've chosen to support the economy. Meaning that they start jumbo cuts and lowering rates while inflation is still rising. That's what happened in 2007 and 8. Eventually we had a deflationary bust

3:14 about 10 or 11 months later. technical still bearish. Remember when the Dow reached 50,000, we got a lower high in the S&P. NASDAQ never was able to make new highs. And again, told you Dow 50,000 was a major sell signal. The Dow's now dropped nearly 10%. Trending signals remain bearish as we're hovering at these 200 period moving averages, dropping below them, trying to get a snapback rally. S&P 500 NASDAQ, S&P 500. I've marked support and resistance

3:59 levels here. We've broken this level of support from the December low. We broke the neckline of the head and shoulders. Back tested that. Now, we back tested the break of the December low. You're now coming into the 200 period moving average and our November low. Once this level breaks and we get confirmation of the uh the double top pattern, then we'll be looking for a move down to uh the February peak there at the 6150 area. Eventually, I think you're coming back to fill the gap down over here. I think you'll be moving towards this 50 uh 300 area right in here, which is a 78.6 6 Fibonacci of the entire advance

4:45 could go lower and hit the April low and horizontal support. But you have the 78.6 Fibonacci, the rising trend line from the 2020 low and our 200E moving average in play there. Again, my target levels are the April low here, horizontal support. If we come down that low uh 200E moving average just above that and just above that the trend line from the 2020 low. Again, these lows uh have all marked bottoms at this long-term channel. This is where I think we're headed. I think you're forming a massive head and shoulders pattern. As I've said, I think you'll see something happen to create a dramatic drop down into this area

5:32 somewhere. red trend line, the 200 week or horizontal support, and our April low. I tried to warn you that this was major resistance. We're going to turn. Now, the people that told us this pullback wasn't going to happen. They're telling us, oh, it's a it's a healthy pullback. Got major resistance here in the weekly time frame, in the monthly time frame. I've talked about these levels. The herd does what they do. They get really good and complacent at tops. And the topping process, it takes a while to to develop and that creates total complacency. The sideways movement easily fooled the herd. It created a short squeeze for the weak bears. It caused the herd the bulls to buy the top institution uh the

6:21 institutions accomplished their goals. As long as long as signals remain bearish on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, then we can break the confirmation line of the double top. Possible though we bounce surrounding our 200 period moving average, which is the black line that we're testing right now. 78.6 6 Fibonacci down here near 5300. That's why I think we're eventually moving back to test. Please support the channel with the link directly below that allows me to be able to provide you this information. If you

7:07 like the charts, you like the indicators, let me know that by supporting the channel. I don't have any sponsors. I turn those offers down just a direct relationship with you. So, if you could take a moment to help out, partner with me, anything helps. Follow the link below to take you to a secured site. You can donate any amount you want, but if you could take a moment to partner with me, I'd appreciate that. Uh, thank you for your consideration for that. The VIX, the VIX is predicting an update for the S&P 500 tomorrow. It's still over 50 above the 200 again, pointing higher. Uh, the S&P tries to form a head and shoulders pattern. you might move back to those uh moving averages as we did back over here and here before these surges in volatility happened. We just lose this 200 period moving average alto together. This area we're trying to

7:54 rebound right there right now on the NASDAQ and S&P S&P and the Dow just below it. Lose that area the November lows then again we could see a massive surge. If we try to rebound and get a right shoulder on the Dow or the S&P, then watch the 200 period moving average down here. Watch the lower boundary of the band. There's no no requirement we form a right shoulder, but we certainly could if we try to bounce around the November low in the 200 period moving average there in the daily time frame. MACD still in positive territory. If we sharply lose the 200 period moving average, holding below it, taking out the November low, we could see a big surge in volatility. If we try to bounce around in there, watch these levels down

8:40 here, the 200, the lower boundary of the the bands, then the gaps on the S&P 500. Here's the 200 period. Here's the 200 period. We're just below it. I'm going to remove it so you can see this up close here. Just now we're just under it. We still have a bearish reversal of conditions. The moving averages are still pointing down. You have no bullish diversions here uh on the awesome oscillator. So, the moment of truth, we're at the 200 period. We're just above the November low. Do we bounce off these areas, try to get a recovery, or do we bounce and feeble bounce and break or do we just break down through them, blowing right past them? So, be paying very close attention. Look at the back and forth from the green to the red back and forth. just showing you the

9:27 distribution that's taking place. But many people confuse distribution with consolidation. Same thing with the NASDAQ. The distribution taking place. Here's the NASDAQ daily chart. Again, possible diversions forming here. You give us a feeble bounce if it plays out or a bigger bounce. Still have the the double top patterns in play. see the S&P get a right shoulder and maybe on the Dow. We'll be watching 200 period and the November low. If I put the 200 back on here for the Nasdaq again, you can see we jump it dropped below it. Then we closed right at that level uh here in the daily time frame. 50 is dropping

10:13 down, moving towards that 200. Do we eventually lose this area completely and ultimately get a death cross or do we attempt to bounce again? hollering candlestick on the NASDAQ. First of all, it has to be confirmed and if it is, it could just be a feeble bounce, but it could be something bigger. The Dow and the S&P try to set up a right shoulder that head and shoulders on Invidia. Now, we have the Dow closing the second close below the 200 period coming into this support area. You've got a possible head and shoulders pattern here on the Dow if we rally back up towards the moving averages. Uh if it's a balanced pattern, you could rally up towards the cloud here. Certainly possible if the Dow tries to form that pattern that we

10:59 get a bounce. Got the same possibility of a head and shoulders with the S&P 500. No guarantee the pattern sets up, but if we get a bounce, it is possible. The Dow has now dropped nearly 10%, 9.60%. We're oversold here. You have a little tiny diversions that's developed here. We'll see if what becomes of that. You got a possible bottoming tail here on the Dow. We've become oversold. Uh MACD the diversions played out. It's moved into the negative region. It was in the positive region uh during the uptrend after the April low. Uh we moved into the positive region and remained there firming up uh at the center line here on these pullbacks and in the negative region. If we rebound back up uh it

11:44 could recycle back up towards the center line. The question now is, are we going to take out these November lows immediately here? We're bound to take them out or maybe get a bigger bounce and then take them out. The moving averages have uh in a bearish realignment. The 10, the red, the blue, the 20 have dropped below the 50. Now they're dropping below the 100 period moving average, which now was acting as support. Now it's resistance. We've dropped below it. We got rejection back at it and dropped down to the 200 period. So again, uh hitting the November low here on the Dow, taking out our 200 period moving average. Now, if we zoom in, get it exact, it looks more like right around 9 and a

12:30 half% to get the exact measurement here. Again, uh the 10, the 20 below the 50, the 50s flattened out, started to roll over. So, if we do try to rally uh again on the Dow, you got the trending cloud, you've got the 50 period, you've got the the uh the 100 period moving average, the momentum cloud here, and then the 10 and 20 period moving average. If we try to get a bigger rally back up and get a right shoulder. So, if we do, then this is the area to be watching for the Dow around the 48,000 area. Should we get a bigger rally on the Dow, here we are at 40 uh 45,000 at today's low, closing right at just slightly above 46,000

13:17 today on the Dow. That's allowed some divergences as we become very oversold. Some divergences to form on different indicators. The histogram has one, RSI has one. So again, do we get a bounce? Do we have a bottoming tail here? Uh do we go back and fill some of these gaps? We'll see. We're at key support and I told you we could drop down below these 200 period moving averages and try to bounce off those November lows. I talked about that in great length of detail earlier in the week and then yesterday spent a little bit of time talking about that. So, I'm going to go ahead and mark this as a possible head and shoulders pattern. If the right shoulder does form again, it likely terminate near the 100 or the 50 period moving average. Maybe even as

14:02 they give the cross, the bearish cross of the 50 dropping below the 100 period moving average likely below the cloud, the trending cloud here on the Dow. Uh again, if we zoom out here, we could see again the peak from late 2024, early 2025. uh these highs that occurred little miniature double top there just before we had the plunge down to the April low. So just under this November low here we have that level of support. So there is some good support in here high here at the November low this low back over here just uh slightly under that and then these highs from back over here and again the peak here just before we

14:48 pushed up through this area. You got some really good support right in here. Uh so we'll see if we attempt to get some kind of bounce after dropping about 9 and a half% on uh the Dow. Now Monday again I told you that we were snowing at the 10 period moving average. We had a topping tail at the 10 period moving average and the momentum cloud. We stalled there. That was confirmed. Now we get a follow through. So now you've created some of these gaps. We'll be looking at that. Same thing here. Do we try to find a bottom? I talked about this at great length of detail yesterday. Do we try to find a bottom here at the November low and end up getting a right shoulder back into this cloud over here? you know, coming down, getting back above the 200 period moving average, coming back up in here and

15:34 ending up forming a right shoulder that would drive the bears absolutely bananas, cause the herd to continue to try to buy the top. If it did happen, it would allow the institutions run it up to sell some more if this pattern forms. Whether it does or not, again, remains to be seen. We had the smaller head and shoulders that took some time. If we form a larger one, this could take more time, cause the bears to throw in the towel completely, create total complacency among the herd. No guarantee that pattern sets up, but if it did, watch the 100 period and the 50 period and the cloud up here. If we did form a right shoulder trying to

16:19 bounce, we did get a hollow red candlestick, meaning that we opened uh down, turned lower, but then closed above the the open, and that gave us a hollow red candlestick like we got a black candlestick for the 10-year yield today. Now, again, the moving averages are all pointing down. You still have the 10 and 20 drop having dropped below the 50 back over here, 10 here, the 20 here. Uh they're now dropping below the 100 period again. try to get a rally back up again. The 100 and the 50 as they continue to drop could act as resistance along with the cloud. Whether that's going to be the case or not, we'll have to wait and see. We had the head and shoulders break down. We back tested that and then turned down and we took out the December low moving out of this trading range,

17:05 this sideways trading range, taking out that December low. We first we broke it and we back tested the uh the neckline of the head and shoulders and then we came down. We broke it. We back tested the trading range and we turned down. But you're forming some tiny divergences. Maybe we get a bounce surrounding this 200, but then lose this level completely moving very far away from it. You should be paying attention to these 200 period moving averages. It's watched by everybody institutions and your everyday trader. So, if we can't move back into the trading range, then we might confirm immediately the double top pattern with the break of the November uh neckline here, which could

17:51 take us down towards the February peak back over here. But if you can move back into this trading range, then you might get that head and shoulders pattern. But you got to be able to move back in the trading range and bounce off the 200 period moving average. We do have this rounding top, the larger rounding top, a smaller one in the second peak, but you have this double top very similar to what we had back over here in 2025. Very similar to what we had in 2022. Diversions have played out and have taken us back to support since the January top. The S&P has now dropped 6.37% a close under the 200 period. Do we bounce and get back above it? You have the gap filling today. still have this other gap here from yesterday that

18:36 hasn't filled. It doesn't have to fill the same thing, the one back over here. But if you move back to fill these gaps, then you've got a shot at setting up that right shoulder. If you move to fill uh these gaps on a closing basis, then you could come up towards this cloud, come up towards these moving averages and possibly get a right shoulder. If that happened, the herd would go, "Oh, the selloff, it's over." told us a selloff wasn't going to happen. They told us we had a breakout at the top. I told you it was a fake out. It was a liquidity sweep by the institutions. They may attempt more distribution if a head and shoulders pattern does end up setting up. So, we don't want to rule that out.

19:24 If we just continue right here, right now, confirm the double top, break down, begin to come down to this level, start taking the uh 2025 February high out, you're going to be looking at these Fibonacci retracements. Again, I think you're moving going to move towards the 78.6 Fibonacci hollowing candlestick today. If we do bounce, we may just attempt to recover like we did back over here. We tried to bounce surrounding the 200 period. A little hard to see, but we tried to bounce around it, but then we just breached that level and kept going. Do we see something similar to that? So, I'll be watching. Do we get the double top confirmation, get a bounce, and then confirmation, or do we try to get a right shoulder back into the 50, back into the cloud here in the daily time frame. Do have a double top. Again, the other

20:11 patterns did not form a right shoulder. The other patterns that we've had recently at the 2025 high, the 2022 high, they didn't form a right shoulder. They just uh formed the double top and began to break down moving beyond the 50week moving average here. Similar uh situation over here moving back uh to these 50week moving averages really before we got any kind of a bounce. So again, do we see something like that with our double top here? We have multiple points of diversions that is associated with major reversals. I think you're going to form this larger head and shoulders patterns to be aware of. Again, the S&P it gapped lower today, went back and filled today's gap, and then it turned off those levels. So, we didn't close at the

20:58 lows, but we didn't close at the highs either. 5-minute chart, we have this gap uh from yesterday up here. Some other gaps on the 60-minute chart. You can see in the 15-minute chart, here's our 15minut chart. 15-minute chart of the S&P. We filled today's gap. We have a gap from yesterday. We have the gap from last Thursday over here. We got had a gap here, but we filled it on an intraday basis. And then we have a gap back up here at around 6,900 that we did not fill. If we get a right shoulder, these other gaps can be filled. They don't have to be filled. We don't have to get a right shoulder, but it's possible if we bounce off the November low and end up setting up a larger head and shoulders pattern. So, just be aware of these gaps. We watching

21:45 the 200. Do we stay below it or do we try to bounce surrounding it or uh and bounce around that November low or take these levels take the November low out and stay below that 200 day moving average in the daily time frame? Do we get confirmation of the double top or do we try to bounce around that November low? Moment of truth. Some peacement struggling at the 50 period moving average in the cloud right here. You've got the 50 below the 200 period here on the 60inut chart, but we're approaching this level of support. We're at the 200 period moving average. So, the question now is, do we try to bounce around this level and then break it or do we get a big bounce and break it later? Just plow on through that level of support. You got the smaller head and shoulders here. Still may get a larger one. We broke

22:31 down, back tested this level, and we turned down. I talked about that. You got topping tails on the daily chart. Hard to see here on the 60-minute chart. We've broken out of the trading range below that December low. So, do we stay below that level, stay below this uh neckline of the head and shoulders, or do we get the bigger rally back up and try to see the double top evolve into a head and shoulders pattern, which would make the bears heads explode and again drag more of the bulls into buying the top. it would accomplish those two things. Down nearly 4% for the month. I'll be watching the monthly chart. S&P is getting that bearish cross on the price oscillator. So again, this is suggesting

23:16 lower prices. I don't know that we form a right shoulder immediately here for that that pattern. We may get a double top and form the larger head and shoulders pattern as I've talked about. You can see here on the daily chart, very similar double top pattern right now that we had in 2022. And again, 2022, 2025, we just moved down to these 50week moving averages. It didn't form a right shoulder. So you you may not get that pattern. And here's the weekly chart on the S&P. Get a rejection at these moving averages. A 10 about to cross below the 20week moving average. Uh you've already had that with the NASDAQ. So again, even if we bounce here, it might just be a feeble bounce and then break through this level, a bounce surrounding the 200 period, but

24:02 then get a crack through this November low. Double top pattern still very much in play here. If it evolves into a larger head and shoulders, then again, the 20week moving average could be tested. some of those gaps could be filled and then we'll be looking at Fibonacci retracements if we do attempt to rebound. And I say that because we are becoming very oversold with the stochastic. The Dow's dropped 9 and a half% dropped over 6%. NASDAQ has also dropped more than 7%. Now the Dow's dropped 9 and a half%. S&Ps dropped over 6%. NASDAQ's dropped uh nearly 8% 7.9% from our lower high

24:50 about 8% from our high back in October. We were not able to make a new high. Got a hollow red candlestick. You drop below the 200 period and then you try to rebound. Do we try to rebound and fill some of these gaps like back over here uh on the NASDAQ and we had a bearish arrangement of the moving averages back over here. Uh the 10 and 20 drop below the 50 here. 50 has now lost the 100 period moving average. They're pointing down the cloud as resistance. Do we try to bottom in this area uh and form a bottom around the November low or just above it and bounce or take out that level? That's what I'm going to be watching. You got a possible divergence on the MACD that's forming. Got a hollow

25:37 red candlestick. Now again, we came back and we filled today's gap on the NASDAQ, but we still have some other gaps that might attempt to be filled like on the NASDAQ again back over here. Some of the gaps I've mentioned on the S&P 500 again, we became oversold just like the S&P turning up off of that level, filling the gap, try to form a divergence here closer to the November low, maybe get a bounce. The hollow red candlestick popping below the 200 getting back above it tried to give us a bounce. We'll be watching the 200 period moving averages. What happens around them? And again, if we do go lower, what happens at the November lows? Do we break the November November lows or do we bounce? Do we bounce off the 200 or do we get a solid break below them and stay below them? A

26:22 crucial level of support. We need to be watching what happens at this critical level of support. the Dow, the NASDAQ, and the S&P 500, and possible larger diversions developing here on the MACD in the 60-minute time frame. So, just be paying attention to the 200 period moving average and the November lows. Got very bearish monthly charts. We had that bearish cross last month on NASDAQ with the price oscillator. We got divergences everywhere. So, again, are we now headed down to these 50-month moving averages and our 200E moving averages? And we see the confirmation of the double top patterns. Do we buy more time? And again, that would fake out more bulls. It would frustrate more bears and the institutions would

27:08 accomplish harming both the bulls and the bears simultaneously. Our double top pattern still we've had the crossover of the 10 and 20 here, the 20 10 and 20 week moving average. Does S&P join it and we start breaking these November lows or do we try to bounce around those 200 day moving averages in the daily time frame holding above the November lows? If we break the November lows, we have our 50week moving averages at the double top in 2022. We just broke down to those 50week moving averages. We'll see what happens here. Rejection continues to occur at these moving averages for the NASDAQ weekly chart. So, the moment of truth. Do we try to bounce around this 200 and the uh confirmation line here, if I extend it out here a little bit, you can see we're

27:54 just barely above that level. So, do we break this level? And if we do, again, we're headed back to the April low. The double top patterns are still very much in play. And let me be clear, we do not have to form a right shoulder. I'm just saying it is a possibility if the bulls really the institutions defend this area and allow it to be. So they are the market bosses but we've gone sideways because there's distribution taking place. That's what people fail to understand uh the difference between consolidation and distribution. The institutions are selling into the rallies. The herd is buying them. They need the herd to take the opposite. the opposite positions of their trades.

28:41 Every buyer there's a seller. For every seller, there's a buyer. Just understand what the institutions are doing.