Thursday AMA Premium Video

0:04 Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. This is your Thursday AMA premium video. We're just going to go through uh some questions here. Um you know, just to provide an update on on my thoughts on the market. I still still think alts can outperform Bitcoin for a few more days. Uh but just remember we likely will get that rotation um back to Bitcoin. I'm guessing here in in the September October time frame. So, um that is what I think. Uh as far as Ethereum goes, I'm going to guess it's going to try to stay around the all-time highs for at least a few more days. Probably see some

0:49 type of a correction in September. That's the way I'm planning this. Um I would expect another rally by Ethereum though after the September correction assuming that we get one. Uh so all right what's more likely Bitcoin testing it is 20 the bull marks for pan or going and testing the 50we you know normally it's hard because like I think Ethereum needs like a 30% drop in September. Um, but how do you get a 30% drop for Ethereum if Bitcoin's downside is capped at like four or 5% lower, right? So, there's two ways that could play out. One way is that Bitcoin could go to the

1:36 20we SMA and then Ethereum goes down with it and then Bitcoin bounces and maybe Ethereum doesn't bounce as much and then Bitcoin goes back to the 20we SMA kind of like repeating September of 2020 where it doesn't go below the 20we SMA but as it bounces on it alts go a little bit lower a little bit lower a little bit lower. Um, alternatively, if you just go to the 50week SMA, you know, you don't need to go through all that. I don't really have like a great answer for you. I mean, let me pull it up really quick and and share my screen. So, here's ETH, right? Like I I guess I'm operating under the assumption that might be faulty that we're likely going

2:22 to see Ethereum get like a 30% drop or so in September. So then if that's the case, like how does Bitcoin only drop like, you know, a few percent. Like it does it really make sense Bitcoin is only going to drop 5%. That Ethereum could drop 30. So the only way it would work is if you know one of two things, right? Bitcoin. Well, first of all, the first option is that I'm wrong and that Bitcoin doesn't, you know, then Ethereum doesn't drop 30%. Though I think it's the most likely outcome. Um, if Bitcoin were to drop 15%. H then it makes the 30% drop by Ethereum more believable. The other alternative

3:07 is if it repeats like what it did in 2020 where it drops to the 20we SMA and then it bounces and then it drops again to the 20we SMA and then that could cause altcoins to put in, you know, lower valuations against Bitcoin if it if it were to play out like that. So, I guess I don't really have a great answer for you. Um, I do think a low will form in September. Um, I I think that, you know, moving, you know, basically becoming bullish on Bitcoin dominance starting in September makes sense. Um, in the short term, I don't think dominance is going to go anywhere until September, right? I think it's still going to stay down here until September arrives. So, it depends on how you want

3:53 to play it. Bitcoin gives you exposure to the upside uh, while also minimizing your your downside risk is is my argument here. When would it be worth cycling from Bitcoin to Ether alts in the coming months? Well, again, I mean, I think you should have cycled to Ethereum back in April when it went home. Uh, if anything, it's time to cycle back to Bitcoin, not Bitcoin to alts. Now, it would be time to cycle back to Bitcoin. Uh, if if the cycle continues like normal, then the time to uh fade Bitcoin dominance will probably be in November. But in the short term, I would get bullish on Bitcoin dominance going into September, October. Bitcoin is usually green in August and post seven years, but so far it's red. Doesn't that violate typical seasonality? That would also apply to September drops. You could have a scenario. Well, here one thing to

4:38 consider, first of all, is that Bitcoin put in a new all-time high in August, right? So, like Bitcoin did go up in August. Uh it just isn't currently a green month. The second thing is that it could still end up being a green month. Bitcoin is only two and a half% down from the open. Third of all, Ethereum is up 23% this month. Total market cap is up 3 and a half%. Right? Like the markets generally have gone up this month. It's just that because we're all measuring it from the open, um it looks like Bitcoin has dropped when in reality it did put in an all-time high in August. And there's still a chance that it could go back up. If Bitcoin were to simply rally back up to its 50-day moving average,

5:23 then that would essentially put it at a green August, right? If that happens before the month is over, because the the the monthly open is a little bit below 116K and the 50-day SMA is at almost 117K. So, you know, this is one of those things where like until it actually closes red, it doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to jump to conclusions. And then again, the other argument is that I'm not saying Bitcoin will go down for all of September. I'm saying that Bitcoin will likely form a low in September. That's the argument. If Bitcoin goes to the 50we SMA, what would you get? What drop would you get on alts? I don't know. Uh I mean, Bitcoin dropping into the 50we would be like a 15% drop. So, I would expect alts to be

6:11 double that. again, you know, I I keep expecting, you know, a a rotation back to Bitcoin starting uh next month. Um it's kind of what I think and I will see uh if that if that plays out, but uh that's what I think. You can also see here in 2017, you can see that all Bitcoin pairs rallied all the way up there and then they dropped going into, you know, November, early November. So, I don't know exactly how high these are going to go. Uh, but I still think they're going to get we're going to get that rotation back to Bitcoin um starting next month.

6:57 Uh, someone says there 85% Bitcoin 15 15% US dollars planning to rotate Bitcoin to ETH in October. Would you take more profit now with September coming or keep only the 15%. I mean that's up to you. I Bitcoin has probably already had a large portion of the correction that it's going to have. Um, you know, it could go another few percent to the bullark pan. It could go down to the 50we estimate. I wouldn't I wouldn't assume it's over. I wouldn't assume the cycle's over as long as you're getting weekly closes above the 50week SMA. Um, so if you if you get below that, then it might make sense to to get a little bit more defensive. Um, it also depends on your own risk tolerance, right? Like, you know, I I also think a lot of people sort of missed the rotation to Ethereum

7:42 for whatever reason back in April when it went home and now they're like trying to figure out when's the best time to get back into it. Um, but I I think when the rotation happens to Bitcoin, it's going to we're going to see Ethereum underperform Bitcoin for probably about two months. Um, so I think it's going to take some patience. I think if anything, now is the time to rotate back to Bitcoin uh in September, October, not away from it. How much would you keep Bitcoin during a 2026 bare market? Uh, it probably depends on how high up the risk levels go. I would still assume that by the end of the year like I'll probably wanna want to get more cash. Um but I think at all times it makes sense to have a huddle stack. So probably

8:27 somewhere between like 15 to 30% would be my guess. When you say there could be a 30 to 50% drops, do you calculate the drop from the highest wick? Yeah. Yeah. So like if there's a 30% drop for Ethereum, it would just be from, you know, wherever it it tops out at. And it doesn't mean it's all going to happen on all alts and and maybe it's not quite 30%. Uh, you know, it could be maybe it's um, you know, testing this trend line again. You know, it could be something like that. It could be where it just uh sort of falls back in here. Maybe it it even goes a little higher first and then falls back in and and drops Yeah. about about that much again. It could go up. It could go higher first and then maybe

9:14 drop 30% and then and then try to rally again. All right, same question. Probability of ETH making another high before September 2nd. It's not zero, right? Like it's not zero. You basically just need one more divergence on the RSI and the price. I mean, like, there certainly are times where you just kind of get a double top, like where you'll you'll sort of see like a high and then a wick above the high. Uh, but there are examples like in 2020 where you actually had three divergences, right? You had one, two, and three. And so, yeah, like I I think

9:59 it's possible that that's what happens, right? where you get, you know, uh, one final divergence and then you get your, you know, your 30% drop or whatever. I could I could definitely see that that playing out. Um, but I will say like if if if Ethereum gets one more divergence up, that is probably the local top before a 30% drop. Okay? So, you know, it could look something like this, right? where it it rallies up, hits 5K, and then everyone's like, and then, you know, it hits 5K, maybe September 1st. Everyone's like, "Oh, you know, let's laugh at everyone that said September would be a bad month." And then after that, then it drops that 30%.

10:45 Um, before then bouncing back up. Like I I could definitely see it playing out like that. If alts go to the lower regression, band, I don't know what you're talking about. Alts don't have a little regression band as far as I see. I mean, will you buy any altcoin during November? do Bitcoin and Ethereum. Um, I mean, look guys, I I've already given you guys altcoin recommendations at various points in the cycle, right? I mean, we talked about XRP when it bottomed against Bitcoin just a couple just a few weeks ago. I I told you that Link was looking pretty good as it was heading up on its ETH pair and that has continued. Uh, so, you know, you can see I pointed it out, right? and it it had a pretty nice pretty nice rally for a little bit. I think um you know the main

11:31 focus here should just be what risk do you want to take on? And when I do provide sort of thought a thought process on an altcoin, you know, is it is it a risk that you actually want to want to carry or not? Um that's that's my my thought process. If Q4 mania phase, how do you try to capitalize? Well, you you uh you know, hopefully whatever the low is in September, you could use that as an opportunity to buy um and uh then sell as we go up the wristbands.

12:18 Do you expect alts to bottom against Bitcoin in the September pullback? No. I think I think I think alts will drop against Bitcoin in a pullback in September and then I think they'll drop against Bitcoin as Bitcoin rallies in October. So, I think it's going to be both, right? It's going to be both would be my guess. So, you'll see alts drop a little bit against Bitcoin in September as Bitcoin finds a low and then you'll see altcoins drop more against Bitcoin as Bitcoin goes up in October. That's my guess. Is Cardono either experiencing or setting up for a double bottom? Um, so you know for for Cardono if there is a correction and you know the assessment of of a potential higher price actually happens for you know for Bitcoin and

13:04 Ethereum then Cardano you would likely see it going back up to that trend line probably you know. So, it just depends on on when like when it happens, right, as to whether it it hits an all-time high. I've had a lot of people ask about that. Um, you know, if it if it tags this trend line again, then I don't really know. I mean, I guess it could tag it one more time and still hold it, but the more times it tags it, the more likely it is going to break. Um, is forex return expected from expected for Bitcoin next cycle for the bottom? Um, well, I mean, in terms of diminishing returns,

13:50 you know, you got you had a 100x and then like 20x. We're currently at like seven. Yeah. I mean, it could could be four or something. timeline for palladium and gold moves. Um, yeah, I think gold's going to go higher like really soon. If I'm wrong, I think it will recover quickly from a sell-off, right? I mean, it's basically just been putting in higher lows and lower highs. You know, it you know, could it could it come back down again before breaking out? Yeah. Um, for palladium, you know, palladium,

14:36 a lot of the world's palladium supply, I believe, is actually produced in Russia. So, if if geopolitical tensions there start to go back up, uh, then that could lead to a spike by palladium. My guess for palladium is that it's going to sort of bottom out down here near the current prices and then get a rally back up. That's what I think is going to happen for palladium. Um, yeah. What would be the case for the cyclic sending into Q1? Well, it's possible that it does, but if it does, it's more likely that just total market cap does and not necessarily Bitcoin. Like, if you look at 2017, you know, Bitcoin topped in uh December, but if you look

15:21 at total market cap, it didn't actually top until uh January. So, you know, I I think there's a you know, a a chance that um you know, I think there's a chance that you see a a top potentially in 2026, but it I don't that doesn't necessarily mean that Bitcoin is putting in a higher high. It could be a divergence, right? It maybe is a Bitcoin lower high, but a total market cap higher high sort of as a sign that hey, uh things are probably going to start going back the other way. You're drawing an upper right referencing price go your face is blocking. Yeah, I'll try to avoid that if I can. Do you think Bitcoin will have a green August? Um I think a lot of times people get so focused on these like vague ideas. Like

16:09 it's possible, but I mean like I don't that shouldn't be like your your investing strategy. Um I think I think Bitcoin will likely put in a lower low in September, right? Like I think it's going to go lower in September. you know whether it does this or not I I don't know but um what is a good percentage of cashold for the entire portfolio look modern portfolio theory would suggest about 30% uh I understand that some people think that's too much uh so if you want to take on more risk you can do that just know that you know it doesn't really leave you much much term much in terms of um capitalizing on the market if there if there is a drop so you know I would say similar between like 10 and 30% is the right answer depending on

16:55 your risk tolerance. Do you think stocks will tank in September or only crypto? I I think there could be a a correction by stocks in September, right? Like maybe the stock market is is, you know, showing us what Ethereum might do where it, you know, puts in some divergent highs and then gets that correction back down to the bullmark sport band in in September. I could definitely see that. In fact, in 2021, Bitcoin had a drop right in September. You can kind of see a very similar thing too, right? It was going slightly higher and then a a drop into September to the bullmark sport band and then it went into the market cycle top. What is your current target for palladium? Um

17:44 I don't know. So, I mean, I'm generally bullish on commodities, but I would say maybe 13,400 is realistic in the short term. If the Fed cuts rates, could that act as a catalyst for Bitcoin to rally even against the usual September bearish seasonality? So, let me be clear. I I think Bitcoin will form a low in September. That doesn't mean it's going to go down for all of September. Just like Bitcoin has formed a high in August, doesn't mean it's going to go up for all of August. That's that's how I'm thinking about it. Could the September downturn be pushed the right for October? You know, one of the one of the things we could see, we could see a negative reaction in late October because um every time the Bank of Japan has raised rates, we've had a pretty negative reaction for crypto. And I think the one of the more probable

18:31 outcomes right now is that the Bank of Japan raises rates in October. So, just keep that in the back of your mind. But it's also not until late October. What do I think about Mar and Clean Spark? Uh, same old same old guys. They're going to keep underperforming um a lot of other things in the market until probably the final rally. Um, that's my general thought process on this. I mean, this is still played out, right? This lower high structure. I guess I was doing on a log scale or sorry, higher low structure, right? Like this never actually uh changed, right? we had this higher low structure and then it back tested it. Um

19:16 could definitely see a scenario where it it goes back up. Uh but I I think you know if if you do get that mania phase in Q4 that'll likely be a a manic time for for the miners as well. Uh but I would not be holding the miners in 2026. If ETH drops to 3 and a half to 4K in September, do you expect it to be a new alltime high by late October? I I think that would be my base case. Yeah. Uh thoughts on Polka Dot. Oh, poor Polka Dot. Uh haven't thought about that one in a long time. Um I mean this is the Bitcoin violation. Yeah, I don't know. I mean maybe you say that's a double bottom, but this one this one just I mean it's one of those ones that like at any point like it's probably going to get some rallies above

20:01 the bullmark spark band like it occasionally does, but it does more or less look like a relic to me, right? like it's down, you know, 96%. I'm not saying it can't go up. I just, you know, it's it's definitely not shown us any reason uh to suggest that this time is different. U for link Bitcoin at a Bitcoin, what do you think it would be a good entry? um for link Bitcoin. May maybe if it maybe like a back test of the bull market support band again like I could I could see that. Um could see something like that where it

20:46 like falls back into the 20we SMA and then bounces and you have a higher low. I could definitely see it playing out like that. Uh for ADA, I think that I think the thing is is if seasonality plays out, then it it might just be um early November, right? Like it might not be a specific valuation, but just a specific time. And if it plays out like the 2016 2017 cycle, then it would correspond to late October, early November. Uh do you see ADA hitting 400 sats? I think it's still a possibility. I mean, you know, if you look at if you look at it, um it already went down to like what 470. Um still still a possibility. I I think if

21:33 it's going to happen, it'll happen within the next like 65 days. If it's going to happen this cycle, is it possible to have an all season with interest rates above the neutral rate? I think QT is mostly finished. Uh yeah. Uh it's probably possible, but I wonder if I I wonder if maybe if they cut three times, like what if the Fed cuts in September, October, and then again they cut again later, that's 75 basis points, that would get the Fed funds rate down to 3.75%. And um you know, if you if you use the 2-year yield as the neutral rate, it's at 3.6%. Right? So, if that bounces, if the 2-year yield bounces off of here, there is a chance that the Fed funds rate could go below the, you know,

22:20 theoretical neutral rate before the end of the year. ITC Premium Party in Amsterdam. There's definitely a chance. I'm thinking about it. We're kind of exploring venues. I I'm probably going to put up a poll in the Telegram group just to see who all would even be interested. It's it's really hard planning parties, especially across the world, when I have no idea who's going to even show up. Like, do I get a venue for a hundred people? Do I get a venue for 400 people? It's really hard to know, right? And so, I'll probably put up a poll on on the Telegram channel, just see maybe how many people are are interested in coming. Um, when do you think a theoretical all season can begin and how long would it last? Look, I I think there's going to be a rotation to Bitcoin in September, October. So, if you get an all season, it'll be shortly after that. It would be in November if if if it if we get one.

23:11 Could you give me a price target and time frame for the platium balance? So, I think I already mentioned that one. Added gold to my portfolio. How do you see gold playing out in the next 6 to 12 months? Um, so for gold, what I kind of think is going to happen, I I'm I'm still sort of expecting I don't know what's going to happen in the very short term, but I'm still sort of expecting a a breakout up and then I don't know exactly how high it'll go, but then I I would expect a correction in uh 2026. So that and but then I would think it was going to go up after that. I think it'll probably get like a 15 to 20% drop in 2026 and then continue going up after that. That's my base case. Uh general thoughts on AI. Do you think the efficiency expectations are too high in the short term? I think in the very short term, um, you know, they're going to try to kick the can down the road as long as they can. I even saw some, uh,

23:57 headlines this morning about how Nvidia would be potentially up for sharing some of their profits with the United States government uh, if they're allowed to to sell to China. So, you know, that could be something that that uh, sends the markets higher. If you if you look at Nvidia actually in uh 2021, you'll see it was a very similar pattern or sorry, yeah, a very similar pattern where you know it went up in sort of into late August and then a correction to the bull market in September, October and then into the market cycle top before then the bare market, right? So it could be the same thing, right? up. See, we got this up in August potentially down into the the bull market event and then maybe into the market cycle top and then we get um uh the bare market, right? Like that that could totally play out like that.

24:43 And then maybe uh you have, you know, a situation where you just connect the dots on trying to figure out where the next low is for for Nvidia potentially out in say like late 2026. Will altcoins outperform Ethereum if they have if they've yet to go home against Bitcoin? Um I I I think all I think altcoins could outperform Ethereum after Ethereum durably makes alltime highs, but that I don't think that's happened yet. If we get a 25 basis point cut in September and again in December, how close are we to the neutral rate? I think we just went over that with the neutral rate. Uh neutral rate is about 75% basis point 75 base points below where we currently are if you use the two-year yield. Uh we already talked about gold and platium. I think gold's probably got another uh you know

25:33 decent upside. I don't know exactly how much. Probably see a 15 to 20% drop in 2026, but um you know I think it' just be a buying opportunity. I'm sitting on a lot of USD and want to slump some into alt. Should I do it in September? Um I guess if your if your denominator is US dollars then you know you might want to you know I think DCA is the way. Um, I wouldn't, you know, I certainly wouldn't want to just at any point like a lump sum into all the altcoins in the market because like, you know, there's no guarantee that uh the market has to go up. I think DCA is better. Um, September is probably going to be the better time to do it. If you value your portfolio in sats though, I'd still stick with Bitcoin for the next couple of months.

26:23 Does an all season occur after total three divided by ETH plummets like this? It's not always. I mean, look at look at uh January of 2017. I mean, like this drop right here did not lead to alt season, right? All season October, November. I think Bitcoin dominance will go up in September, October. So, I wouldn't if Bitcoin dominance goes up in October, then I don't think it'll be on all season. When interactivity with the charts, yeah, we still haven't done that yet.

27:09 Uh, looking for a lifetime membership. Will you confirm if you'll be around, please? I mean, as I said before, um, I don't like I I plan on being around. Um, obviously I don't always know what the future holds, but um, like I plan on being here. I I think the the content might change slightly as I get older. Um, but I mean that's up to you. You could just play it safe and and not do the lifetime. Uh, do you think Bitcoin dominance will drop after September? No, I think dominance will go up in September and October. If it's going to drop, I think it'll be in November. How do you determine how much Bitcoin you sell metric? I have a dynamic

27:55 dynamic DCA. So like, you know, it could be 1/10th, 210, 3/10, 410 as you go up. Uh it could be, you know, like 1 6 26 36 depending on where you start. If end cycle is into 2025, early 2026, you expect a recession in 2026. Not I mean there could definitely be a recession in 2026 but not all bare markets are associated with recessions, right? I mean it makes sense to have one. Uh but there's always a chance you just have a normal bare market again and not a deep recession. Can you also take a look at silver and share your thoughts? Um I'm still bullish on silver. Um,

28:41 I would say I'm I'm I would argue that it's going to it's going to continue to work its way up to the prior all-time high. So, that's what I would say. Um, you know, it would even maybe correspond to sort of testing this trend line here. I could see something like that. I would I would stay bullish on silver. You know, I I would stay bullish on it. Probably going to see it sweep the high at around $50 and then maybe consolidate for a while. exit strategy for miners. I would be out before 2026. Um, if the asset class is below the fair value, how far do you think we could get? You're talking about

29:27 this chart. Well, maybe look at it like this. Maybe if you if you draw a trend line to that peak to that peak, maybe that's where maybe that's where it'll go. So it could be, you know, like 100% overvalued or something. I I don't know exactly. Maybe less, maybe a little bit less than that, actually. Bitcoin market cap this cycle. Um, oh, sorry.

30:23 I don't like I pro I I I don't think it's going to go. Let me see. I mean like the biggest move in 2017, you know, one of the bigger ones happened from like September to the end of the year. So like I don't want to discount another rally before the bare market. Um I don't know exactly how high it could go. I mean possible. I mean it's plausible that it hits three trillion. There's a chance it hits four trillion, right? I I don't know exactly but um whatever it is is probably going to be in the next four four months. What are the best strategies for DCing out according to the risk levels? Um I think dynamic. So like basically what it means is that um if you go to the uh

31:10 DCA strategies tool or sorry um the exit strategies tool let's say you have one bitcoin you can say all right I think the projected price of the peak is let's say 200k um then you would set and you could say you want to start selling at a specific wristband maybe you fall in the hodler strategy so maybe it means you sell you know that much at 75 risk and then that much at at 085 and so on and so forth. The point is is there's no guarantee it goes all the way up to the higher risk bands but it does allow you to sell some in case that ends up being the top considering that we are in the final phase of the cycle. Do you think it's better at this point to disregard the risk level and place more value on the time aspect? I think it still makes sense to respect the risk levels. Um but

31:55 in a few months uh maybe the time component could be more important if Bitcoin continues to underperform. Like I I think one sort of elephant in the room is that you like if you look at like 2017 the rally that Bitcoin had uh from the you know from the um from the July sort of from the summer low or let's just even take it from the June high to the August high was like a 60 almost a 70% move up from like that summer high to then the late August high uh which a still technically in summer right but if you do it this year you can see that sort of May June high to then the August high is only like 12%. So that's a lot less right then the next rally that that that Bitcoin had after

32:40 that was like you know a 300% rally so you know five times more than that one. If you if you extrapolate that trend and say, well, what happens if Bitcoin goes five times that? Um, then that would be like a 60% move, that could put Bitcoin, you know, theoretically it could put it at at 200K. Um, which if it did uh if it did do that, it would basically put it at only 0.8 risk, you know. So, this is one of those things where um and there's no guarantee that it even makes it there. Like, what if it tops out at at 7 risk or six? I mean, like there's no guarantee of anything. I would say it

33:26 still makes sense to respect the risk levels for now. But, you know, if if by November, December time frame, like if it still looks like Bitcoin's not making that move, then it might be time to just respect the timebased component of the cycle. um and just say, you know, maybe the macro uncertainty kept Bitcoin from going up as much as it otherwise would have. Um I I I don't know. I mean, but that that's how I would how I would play it. What's really interesting is like this low over here is about 1/100th of that

34:11 low and then that high was basically 19. You know, it's not impossible for it to go up up there before a a big drop. And if it did, uh, then you'd be looking, you know, a 70% drop from there, you'd be looking at Bitcoin back at around 60K, right? If it doesn't go up there, um, and and you know, one reason to sort of be a little cautious about that is that, you know, just the the the return that Bitcoin had like like in June, Bitcoin was at 3K of 2017. in June of 2025, it was at um you know, like it was already at

34:58 118, right? Like this is not as explosive of a move um as as this one was. So, but look, if Bitcoin does find support at either the 50WE SMA or the bull market support band and it does get a parabolic rally in Q4, then that's the way the Bitcoin dominance would go up, right? It's just that like if if Bitcoin went through a move like this, then dominance would go up, just like it went up when it got these moves, right? If Bitcoin goes parabolic. If it doesn't go parabolic and something catastrophic happens, uh, you're still probably better off with Bitcoin weathering that storm than than the altcoin market in the September to October time frame.

35:49 Is it possible that the recent dip is the pullback we've been expecting in September? Um, look, listen guys, when I say a dip, right, like Bitcoin can trend towards the 20we SMA in August, right? We've been clear about this. It doesn't have doesn't mean that the high for Bitcoin is on the last day of August, right? In fact, a lot of the September pullbacks actually originated earlier than September. Um, I would expect a low in September. That's what I expect. Base case risk metric top for ETH and Bitcoin. We just talked about Bitcoin. For Ethereum, I'm thinking somewhere between like 5,300 and 7,500 uh is is my guess. So, I have 50% of my initial Bitcoin stash and my entire ETH position, what

36:34 would your exit strategy be? I would stick to the risk levels until the end of the year. And if by the end of the year they still haven't hit it and maybe by like December, November, December, if they still haven't hit it, then more I would flip to the timebased component. How do you buy platium? I would just buy um one of the ETFs. So looking strong for now. Uh it has it has actually looked a little bit stronger recently. Um you can see like it's Bitcoin pair has moved back up. Ultimately I do think it will follow the ETH Bitcoin move uh where it it fades back down here. Uh perhaps what it's doing is you know the the ETH Bitcoin move that happened right where it sort

37:20 of bottomed out and then it went back up put in a lower high and then bled out. It could be doing that absolutely. Uh but yeah, I mean it is it is looking stronger than some of the altcoins right now. Do you think a DC investment in Bitcoin, Tesla, and gold over the next five years is a good idea? Uh I think yeah, like if you DCA into that, I think it's fine. given narrative. I would also add just like the S&P as well. Um given narrative files price, why would you imply market manipulation by market makers doesn't exist? Um yeah, I don't I don't really subscribe to the whole manipulation stuff as much. I'm not saying that no assets out there are manipulated, but the people that scream manipulation about things like Bitcoin that have these huge market

38:06 caps, I don't think is fair. started saying uh VU and QQQ last year once a heated base risk metric continue or wait for a cool down. Um I think you'll probably see it cool down soon. You know, if it follows the uh you look at like the QQQ divided by M2, it's definitely getting up there. Um, I would go back to the S&P divided by M2 and and sort of see like how this played out where it, you know, it gets a little rally and then it gets like this deeper correction, but that might not happen until 2026. Um, I think more than likely

38:51 you're going into like a a distribution phase, but it could last a while. Assuming all ETH pairs go up in September and max pullback 30% would alt therefore be less than 30%. Uh, I mean, anything's possible. I I don't know exactly. And again, this not every altcoin, right? Like it's just we're talking about collectively. If your path is correct, what trades should we look for in alts in late October, early November? If you want to take on the risk, just look to see which ones are putting in higher lows against Bitcoin. That's what I would look for or double bottoms. Does it make sense to consider altcoins in September, October if they sweep the.3? Yeah, probably. Um, what percentage draw down do you expect on alts? We've covered that. Uh, I I I think that there's likely going to be a pullback in September, maybe a low about midmon or so and then and then up after

39:37 that. Why are minor lagging so much? A lot of times miners lag until the end of the cycle, right? That's pretty normal. Is the best baited is the best day of DC the same as the worst day of DC out probably timing for gold pull back in 2026? I don't know. I mean I could see it pulling back hard in like March to May and then maybe like later in the year as well. Do you expect an ETH tsunami this cycle again? Well, I mean, I we've been having a really nice Ethereum move recently. I mean, like this. I mean, look at this move. I I don't know what else you call it, right? I mean, this is a pretty nice move.

40:24 Would you be looking for Bitcoin double bottoms in the September to October time frame? Probably the October to November time frame. Uh likelihood of another rally before we go down. I It's possible for Ethereum, you know, it's possible for for another rally. Absolutely. We talked about platium. Is your base case for ETH to fall 30%? I I think so, but not. I think it'll fall 30% from the high to September low. Uh is what I think. Uh a lot of palladium questions. I think Hyperl put in a new high. I mean, it's doing well against Bitcoin, so

41:10 that's something, right? So, again, I'm not talking about your world. Um, thoughts about institutions buying Bitcoin. I mean, it's the natural progression of things. We'll probably see it happen more and more. Can we get a heat map for stocks? Um, I will note that down and see if we can do that. Oh, Bitcoin Magazine Pro fans up their presentation in Amsterdam. Uh, absolutely, absolutely. I was fun at the last one. Uh, can you look at Soul USD? You know, if you look at some of these charts that have these alts, um I'm thinking that like the the as long as the market stays, again, there still

41:55 could absolutely be a September pullback, but if the market can stay risk for a few more months, then perhaps that target uh would be somewhere on this trend line, right? But again, you're probably going to face a pullback in September 1st. How long do I think all season will last? Well, assuming you get one, it usually about two months or so. Can you look at the Fibonacci retracement from 2017 peak to the 2018 bottom,

42:42 the 11.08 08 extension. Um, my trading view doesn't seem to be Why is it not working? Um, normally when I click on this it'll uh

43:53 Normally, when I click on this, it allows me to to edit it, but it's not actually letting me do that right now. So, I I'm sorry. I can't look at it right now. If I get it to work later, I will uh let you know. When you say to take profits, doesn't mean to take out what you put in plus 16. Yeah, it just means dynamic DC a little bit out so that you know you get you get a little bit out and and crypto is not just this like black hole you throw money into and never profit from. Want to sell some a to USD to Bitcoin. It looks like you know I think uh we talked a lot about a on its Bitcoin pair

44:40 once upon a time. talked about sort of this backtrack move up. Um I would guess you'll see a pullback by a Bitcoin September, October and then a rally on a Bitcoin in November. That's that's what I guess. Can we get a risk metric for ETH Classic? H probably not, but I'm not going to say definitely no, but probably not. I mean, we don't want to go too far down the list. Um what's your thoughts on render? You guys haven't asked me about that one in a long time. I guess that's why, right? Cuz it's been moving lower since uh 2024.

45:30 I I guess you have to go I mean you have for something like that, you really have to look at the Bitcoin valuation to see the underperformance and and that is is what I would look at. I would say this though, if it's down here, right, like in a in a couple of months, that could be a good opportunity, right? Like if it if it just fails here, comes down, that could be an opportunity to maybe maybe capture some upside on it. Soul ETH is a good one to look at actually because that one was one we had talked about. Um it it is getting a little bit of a rally here. My guess is that it'll get rejected by this the bull marks working. I think it'll get rejected.

46:27 Uh TLT same expectation. Sweep the low. Sweep the low. That's my expectation. You used to bring Gus to the channel. Why aren't you doing that anymore? Um, I do it occasionally. I think I just go through like phases where I do it and I don't You know what I do? I I'll just tell you what I guys what I'll do. So, watch for this in the future. What I normally do is I think at any point like various people have a better read on the market, right? So like sometimes I have a good read on the market and my thought process is playing out, right? Like I'll explain why things going to happen and then it plays out

47:13 and um and I feel really confident about it and that'll work out for a while, right? And then when you find yourself in that situation, you just run with it, right? Like Ethereum went home, then just run with the investment, right? Don't don't constantly try to second guessess yourself. just run with the idea that you presented. And if everything else keeps working out, I tend to just lock in and focus on my view of the market. Inevitably though, when I get something wrong, what I try to do is I'm like, what am I missing? And and then when I'm when I feel like I'm missing something, uh then that's when I usually start to bring a lot of other people on. So when you see me do that a lot of times when I do that it's because in my mind I am not I'm missing something right and I want to hear other people's opinion but more importantly I

47:59 want those people that have another opinion than me to share their opinion with my to the people that view my channel because the people that view my channel also deserve to hear other opinions especially if the ones that I'm presenting are not actually playing out for now I I you know for the last I would say for the last year I my views have mostly played out right mostly not perfect uh in late 2023 my views did not right like late 2023 my views did not play out and and therefore I was like oh what am I missing let me bring some other people on so that's probably the reason is just because for now I feel comfortable with where things are and I have for like the last year or so um if in some point that changes and I feel like I'm on the wrong side of things then I might bring other people on to

48:45 try to help clue me in into what I'm potentially missing. Is ADA a relic? Uh, not necessarily. I mean, there the the thing is is it still in order to be a relic, you really want to it would need to put in a new low from the last cyclone. Hasn't done that yet, so it's not necessarily one. Um, Volkswagen is currently at GFC lows. If you like if you would like Volkswagen as a company with DC into it. Um, what's the ticker for it? I don't actually know the ticker for it.

49:34 It's uh VW A. Here we go. I think maybe this is it. I mean, it's not the worst idea in the world, I guess. Doesn't mean I won't come back down. But yeah, I could see I could see your reasoning for it. PayPal. PayPal is one that really did follow uh the general views that we we expressed. Basically, a breakout, a back test, a

50:20 big rally, uh a sell-off. My guess um is that, you know, it might go up a little bit more. Uh I'm going to guess it'll fall back in in 2026, be fully reset, and then probably go back up. It's kind of how I think it's going to play out. ETHUSD risk higher than Bitcoin risk, but at the same time, ETH is lower risk than Bitcoin by risk metric. I don't understand what you're saying. ETH is higher risk than Bitcoin. Could you talk about my Salana wondering when is the best time to get a divorce? This week for a possible September drop.

51:06 I wouldn't say that. I I would say Bitcoin will likely outperform alts for two months. Um, I'm not asking you to like, you know, forsake your bags because I'm bullish on Bitcoin dominance, but just be aware that if dominance goes up um in September and October, that's just the most likely outcome. Could you please advocate to the butterfly effect? Can you play devil's advocate to the butterfly effect video? I guess devil's advocate is just well what if the Ethereum is following the S&P fractal uh from 1989 to 1990. Uh if you do that, if you take this fractal right here,

51:57 let's copy that. Go over to ETH So yeah, to play devil's advocate, this is devil's advocate, right? Where like what if the market just slowly just trends up in 2026? Um and and it keeps dropping because people keep thinking we're going to have a bare market and then we don't. Uh that could happen. My base case is that we that 2026 is a bare market, but you're asking me to play devil's advocate. That's the advocate. That's devil's advocate that it just kind of just slowly trends up and and people don't understand like what's going on.

52:48 Your base case for the next months, ETH down, then alltime high in a cycle into 2025, 2026 next year bare market, right? You see an allseason in there. Uh if there's an all seasonason I think it'll occur in in a couple of months if there is one right so about two months from now maybe two months and five days if there is one that would be when it would occur I think I read FCI exclus China India Brazil and heavy and in dying industries Toyota HSBC Shell recommends VWO but VW% over 15 years and VZILZ is down 40% over eight years how to profit well one of the reasons that a lot of this stuff doesn't really look so good is because the US hasn't been outperforming most everything. Um, so like I've even noticed my own portfolio that like FCIX

53:33 continues to underperform FZO X. And I keep thinking at some point there's going to be some type of mean reversion and these other countries will do well and that keeps not happening. At some point it'll probably happen, but it's also one of the reasons why FZO I've had a much higher percentage in that um than FZILX, you know, in the past, right? So that's my my thought process is that you know at some point there's going to be some type of mean reversion there. I don't know when it's going to happen. Uh but that would be the case for for not just being 100% domestic. What would be your allocation for the bare market? I mean I I think you know you at least want to have 30% cash in the bare market if not more. Gold could

54:20 be, you know, I mean, normally I just say like 5 to 10%. Uh, Bitcoin some I mean, you also want to have some stocks in there as well because there's no guarantees that it's a bare market. Is daughter relic? It doesn't look good. If the rate cuts are in September, could that act as a catalyst uh for Bitcoin to rally? Yeah, it could. I mean maybe maybe they're at maybe when they cut rates does is ends up being a low, right? Like it's possible. A lot of times you'll see a low one month after a high. Um and if the high was about mid August, then maybe the low is about midepptember and the Fed meeting is midepptember, right? So there's a chance

55:18 If the S&P puts in alltime highs week after week through October, can Bitcoin and Ethereum follow the bull market? Well, that's what has been happening, right? S&P has been putting in higher highs and despite that, Bitcoin already almost tested the bull market band, right? I mean, it came really close to it. Yeah, I mean, it could. Well, I do think S&P will get a correction on September with so many predicting the Q4 top with 2026 bear. Does it become a self-fulfilling prophecy? Do do with the opposite of Catholics? There's always a chance that like you know that you get a rally in October and then that's the top, right? Like that's a chance that would line up with sort of the time frame from the ROI from the low and the ROI from the high. Definitely a chance it plays out like that. Is Salana getting a rotation from ETH? Yeah, I mean we said that there likely would be a rotation into alts after

56:05 Ethereum made new all-time highs and maybe this is the beginning of that. Can Bitcoin reach 220K? I'd say as long as it's possible on the risk metric, then it's possible. Your ETH path A was drawn to alltime highs, then back to 4K, then past alltime highs. Now, do you think path B at bull markets were pen to 4K? I think it'll get a test of the 20 week SMA in September probably maybe October um and then up hopefully. What is your view if September happens to be very bullish? So yeah, if September ends up being really really bullish and there's no lows and then just keeps on screaming higher, then at that point, you know, you're probably just going into a a market cycle top uh

56:50 in October. Uh if September is bearish, then it's more likely that you have, you know, a slightly later market cycle top, potentially November or December. How likely do you think a red or neutral August on Bitcoin can invalidate September seasonality? It could. I still think and there's still a few more days for August. So, let's see what happens before we jump to any conclusions. If we are getting if we're preparing for an ETH drop in September is today, Thursday, the best time to sell. uh since the next best time is Wednesday, already September. So, I mean, look, I I think um you know, if Ethereum is going to rally to a new high from here before a drop, it'll probably happen by by the 1st of September, the at least the first couple days of September, and then you might have a pullback. That's kind of what I'm thinking.

57:46 How go Bitcoin? Um, this was this is one that hasn't really done that well. It is possible that you could view this as a double bottom. Normally, when you see double bottoms, though, you don't want to see a lower low. You want to see a slightly higher low. So, that's the only reason I'm a little bit more skeptical about it. Like when you look at like XRP Bitcoin, uh you know, when you when you actually got the double bottom, it was technically a slightly higher low. Uh which makes me more optimistic about it. And like you know, in the last cycle when ETH Bitcoin had a double bottom, um it was technically a slightly higher low. So when you when you see lower lows, uh it just makes me a little bit worried that it's not going to hold and that it will

58:32 fade. If you look at Salana Bitcoin, it was also a slightly higher low. If you go look at like like you know AVAX Bitcoin, you can see there are times um when it you know when it holds and it looks like oh maybe that's a double bottom right it looks like oh maybe that's a double bottom when it sweeps the low and then it rallies and then it goes lower. So I think that's the reason why I'm a little bit more cautious on that one just because it was technically a lower low and not a slightly higher low. Alibaba I've been bullish on this one for a while. Um, I' I'd still say I'm bullish on it for now. If total assets continues to fall, could

59:19 uh ETH Bitcoin go further down, too? Uh, anything's possible. My base case now is that ETH the low for ETH Bitcoin is likely in for the cycle. Um, you know, that that's my base case for now. How could a Salana price evolve around bit against Bitcoin in September and Q4? Um I I think you could see Salana outperform Ethereum in September, October. I don't know if it's going to outperform Bitcoin. It could there could be a scenario where like it does outperform Bitcoin even if collectively the altcoin market bleeds. Um and maybe it goes into like a secondary distribution phase like ETH Bitcoin did, right? where it like it has its first distribution phase and it comes down and then goes into a sort of a secondary distribution phase and then and then

1:00:04 goes down. All right, guys. We've been going for about an hour. Um I think we've gone through most of the questions. I I did skip a few, but most of them were just like uh repeated questions. Thoughts on Benford's law for ETH and looking at it for the cycle peak, the bare market next cycle. The thing about Benford's law is that um so if you pull it up for ETH usually the the leading digit is one. Um it could mean that you know next cycle uh Ethereum spends a lot of time between like you know digits that start with one and two. Basically it means that a lot

1:00:51 of the time a lot of time in the cycle you don't spend a lot of time at digits in this range. So, like if Ethereum starts to rally up these prices, you're probably just not going to spend a lot of time there. It tends to spend more time at at prices that start with a one and a two. This is pretty universal. It's not just asset prices, even like voting and stuff. Um, or like there there's a lot of things in the world where where it follows Benford's law. And if it doesn't, it means there's probably some type of manipulation going on. Um but if it does then it it it's not as manipulated. But any but generally speaking you would expect things to sort of slowly trend down um you know as you know from the sort of the leading digit down. You would that's what you would expect uh generally speaking. But

1:01:38 anyways guys we'll wrap it up there. Thank you guys for tuning in and I'll see you next time. Bye.