0:00 Welcome to the cricket betting podcast. I'm Ed Hawkins. This is your ultimate betting guide to the fifth and final Ashes Test. We're brought to you by 7bet.co.uk, a fresh sports betting brand that offers such features as early payout, bet builder, betting insights, a boost, and more. Go to sevenbet.co.uk and experience worldclass betting for yourself. Are we all burned out after an exhausting ashes series? Not a bit of it. Let's say hello to Paul Christa Merty and update us on your best bets for 2025. Paul, >> hi Ed. Um, we're always talking about burned out. The SA20 has only just started. You know, we've got loads and loads to go. Um, my best bets are 42.2
0:48 in profit. >> Okay, >> there you go. And Richard Man. >> Yeah, that's best bets as well. doing nice in loads of winners to come with um anti-post and long-term ashes theories bets. >> Yeah, I mean it's been a challenge the last six months. I'm minus 2.21. Caveat to that is I've got Stark in a couple of markets top Aussie bowler and play of the series 12 to1. I've got Brook sentry in the series as well and we're on under 7.5 series tons as well and after the MCG that looks well placed. So, um I'll be in front um by the start of 2026. Just how far. >> That's all you got to do in this game. Get your nose in front. And if you want to be in front, sign up to our VIP
1:33 Telegram channel in the comments below. We are way out in front. Uh plus 7% ROI uh for the year. So, you will win consistently. Those are good solid returns. What is on this show? We tell you exactly what happens in the fifth Ashes test at the SCG. We'll be talking team news, pitch report in plays, player win rates, other nuggets as well. And of course, the best bets for that fifth test come at the end of the show. But let's talk about where we are with the Ashes. 5nil vouchers are in the bin. Paul, after England won at the MCG, are we seeing a resurgent England or a tired and jaded Australia or was it just a
2:19 complete oneoff which um the locals have said it was? Of course. >> No, I I wouldn't I don't think it really needs classifying in in that way. I mean, they could have won the first test. They probably should have won the first test really where they were. Um things went their way you know it was a lowscoring match and this time Australia clap they bowled Australia about cheap both times I don't think England have been inferior clearly I still think they're inferior I don't think it really changes anything I don't think either side is that great and that you know probably 3-0 did flatter Australia an ordinary Australia side a little bit Um
3:07 I mean regarding theory score, it just reinforces this perception, this you know truth that draws are just so so rare nowadays in test cricket in Australia. I mean they're going off 12 to1 14 to1 in each matches but you just think in most of the time they've got absolutely no chance whatsoever. Um, you know, I've had two two-day tests that this was unheard of in the past. Um, I mean, I was in the back four results at the start of the series in hope of a draw. Could still win, but it's no value. That that isn't that wouldn't be a value position now cuz that's 7 to1. >> Uh Rich, it's been a poor quality series, isn't it? Um, and I think we said at the start of our series preview,
3:54 what will be true at the start of the series will will not be true at the end. And that is basically proved to be correct. I mean the sides almost not unrecognizable but significant churn in players. We do have more momentum with the with the side which has been behind but I mean really if you try to look at objectively there's two players who have made the difference and that is head and Mitchell Stark and those two have basically won Australia the series. >> Yeah. Well, hopefully Stark has anyway when they're handing out the awards next week. Um, that's been key for Australia. I think they've done the basics better with with with the ball. They've just been able to hit line and length more
4:39 consistently than England who have been really poor in that department. Catching doesn't get talked about enough, but Australia have been brilliant in the field. Absolutely outstanding. Um, but as you going back to Stark and Head, particularly head, the batting hasn't been great. Australia is I mean Cameron Greens look really ordinary. Smith hasn't impacted the series. Labashane's been a major disappointment. We were ahead of the curve with that one and it just hasn't worked out. But someone's generally stood up for Australia when they've needed runs at critical juncture and quite often it has been Travis head Alex Kerry would be the other one and it just hasn't happened with England. Um they've just kept losing wickets in clusters where Australia might lose two and then they'll get a partnership head Kerry somewhere some something like that. England have just just fallen like a deck of cards and I suppose it rings
5:24 true what we've always said keep the collapse on side with this England side because my god extreme unders has paid its way. >> Yeah and that may well be the case again the SCG let's start to look at that seven bet.co.uk UK draw no bet Australia 8 to 17, England 6-4. Um we'll get into it now. Just a reminder, please do sign up to Seven Bet and um support us. They are our sponsor. So if you love the podcast coming every week, we're able to do that because of 7b.co.uk. So if we can get some signups with them, we can keep coming back every week, which benefits everybody, doesn't it? So there you go. Let's talk SCG and Australia versus England. It's Saturday, January the 3rd, 11:30 p.m. start time.
6:12 Live on TNT. I'm tell you what, I might not be surprised. Well, not disappointed to see the back of TNT commentary. That's a been a difficult listen um in the small hours. 8 to 11 Australia with Quinnbet 9 to4 England with Labrooks. Draw is sevens with TripleA Quinnstar Bry and Brebe. Let's talk teams and we'll get Rich's view on the teams. Uh this is what I think Australia are going to do. Weather and head Lashane Smith Kawaja Webster coming in for Green who's been dreadful. Kerry Nissa Stark Boland and Todd Murphy the spinner. You do need a spinner at the SCG historically. uh England, Crawley, Ducket Bethl Rrook Brook Stoke
6:59 Smith, Jax, Cass, Tongue, as you were pretty much of course, and then Pots is going to come in for Gus Atkinson, we think, although Rich may have a view on um Fischer, who's been added to the group um after Woods injury. So Rich, I mean, Australia about to use their 16th and 17th players in the series if We Webster and Murphy come in, which is absolutely bonkers and just reinforces this huge missed opportunity by England. >> Yeah, you think back to that that key session, don't you, on day two in Perth. I mean, how different it could be now. We could be looking at 2-2 and this could be the series of all series, but but we're not there. I think you're right with Murphy has to play. I think he's a good bowler. Um, and I'd like I think Webster should have started the series. I'm not sold on Cameron Green
7:45 and I certainly are now. Whether they give him one more go, um I'm not too sure. I think Webster playing in the back this last week suggests that they certainly want him to be ready to play. As for England, I think your team's spot on. I would personally play Matthew Fischer. I think he's a really good bowler, more upside long term than Pots, but Pots was was originally selected on the tone. It'd be tough look on him not to play now and be usurped by Fisher. So I suspect Pots will get his go and I am I am keen to see him or Fisher because I'd like to see someone who can just hit top of off stump a bit more consistently. That's all they did at the MCG Josh Tong and Stokes. Um they just they just bled all fashion line and length and surprise surprise it worked. Right, Paul? This is the test which most
8:31 people thought would be more vulnerable to weather. few showers day two and three, but I can't say that there's anything in that long-term weather forecast as we record that means that draw price is going to come in uh unless you disagree or there's any trading to be done on the draw because of that potential uh for panic in the match odds market as this was the venue where people were more concerned. >> Well, yeah, that would be the idea of panic in play. I think there's I mean looking at the long-term forecast there is a lot of rain around right there is if you look at like most days there's rain at night or early morning few hours there's patchy rain here and there I don't think they're going to lose a
9:17 massive amount of time not enough to get a draw but they probably will lose some time and I think we're going to see onoff overcast conditions throughout a lot of the tests There's going to be a lot of fortune about what time you bat. Um I wouldn't bat a draw at 7 to one. No, that's way too short for me given that there's no like consistent rain in it. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a situation where let's say on the first day, you'd get four wickets in the morning session. Um draw drifts out to 20 to one, something like that, and then you get a bit of rain in the afternoon and it comes back into 10. So you might get a bit of short-term trading like that.
10:02 >> Okay. Uh we've got all the pitch data coming up. I will just talk about sort of the nature of the SCG wicket in relation to what's happened at the MCG though. Rich and and you can um talk about this with some authority. I'm not saying you're a groundsman, but just just to point out the the SCG surface is going to be the same as it was regardless of what happened at the MCG. You can't change the nature of that that pitch significantly, can you? Within a short space of time, apart from if you had any plan to leave on some grass, they they won't do that now. Is that is that fair? >> Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, this this pitch will have been here marked months ago um as a test pitch. Um but I
10:51 I think you're right. They may well shave a little bit more grass off it now. Um particularly the fact that it might not be red hot as well. They'll hope the pitch all together. Um they cricket Australia a skin basically and that they don't want another two-day test. Um but then like Paul says, even if we don't get a lot of rain, even if we just get showers, that does suggest overheads. Um and look, the pitch might play well enough, but the ball might move sideways through the air. So, um, it could still be challenging for for batsmen in in that respect. And and, you know, damp as well if the wicket's under covers and and the wicket sweats for a couple of hours. And like we've always said, we don't need a lot in these pitches for England in particular to be vulnerable to the moving ball.
11:37 >> Right. SCG pitch some um trend points for you. Last 10. Australia have not lost in those last 10. There have been five draws in that period though. First innings average runs per wicket is 46.1. Fourth innings average runs per wicket is 32.7 which is uh pretty high actually that number for fourth innings in Sheffield Shield cricket two games this season some very low all out scores in those two games 1 to85 92 and 181 uh and the same the previous season in just three matches there's only one score of more than 277 and all out scores of 14136 68 and 118 and this is fast medium pace
12:23 bowlers really and in in some cases well some median dibbly dobblers doing some damage uh this season Paul what do you reckon to some of these numbers >> I think we look at another lowscoring game I think that reinforces what I really thought I mean there wasn't in the last two tests at Sydney there was no ton scored that's a 4 to1 chance I think you got to stick with that again Um I think if we get 330 350 overs play there's going to be a result. Um Scott Boland has taken 17 wickets in two tests here which tells you the sort of bowler that's going to be going to do well. I think yeah I think I think we're
13:08 going to get overhead conditions and I think we could well see it's very possible we'll see four sub 200 scores again. Rich, what you got in plan for for the pitch? >> Yeah, I agree with Paul actually. I think I think that's that's about right. Even if it looks a better pitch than what we had at the MCG. As I've said, you don't need a lot for England in particular um to find conditions tough with batting. Seems have obviously obviously done the business. The other factor is well, what in intensity will both sides have? I felt like last week England scaled the mountain at the MCG. Try and get that first win in 15 years and they've done that. But the series is gone now. They've got the win. Will they be able to to reach the same intensity again? Archer's gone. Atinson's gone on though.
13:54 Seam tongue going to play three three in a row. That's a big ask for him. Cast will be playing five. And it's the same with the Australians as well. Stark's been fantastic. But what a workload he's had. I just wonder if you might see some poor cricket this this week to be honest. some tired mind, some tired legs. Um, and I always just think in that instance, you can get some some crazy outcomes. And again, I'm just thinking extreme unders. Why not? >> Okay, let's talk match winner then. Um, if the MCG was a leveler, SCG could well be the same, Paul. So, surely England the value again. >> No, I don't think so. I think 8 to 11 Australia is good value. Um, you said it yourself there just no Australia haven't lost in 10 at the SCG. Um, I'm looking
14:40 at Poland in particular, Stark as well to do a great deal of damage. I don't trust our bowlers to do it two games in a row to be honest with you. Um, I think just everything we've seen in this series, 8 to 11 is a perfectly fair price for Australia. >> Okay, Richard, who wins the match? >> I do agree with Paul, but I I would have been tested at what is it 1.6? 69 on the exchange. I think this is perfect for Paul's uh Paul's strategy though. Um his test match my strategy that he puts in the free channel about about trying to get increased odds on both results. Hard to see it being a draw. I could see the draw shortening of course cuz the market is spooked by bad weather, but ultimately I think we'll get a result and I think you might just get some bigger prices if you're prepared to trade.
15:26 Paul Christian Mercy, let's talk about inplay strategies and the patented system worked perfectly at the MCG. Presumably, you roll it out again here. >> Yeah. Yeah, it's been good series. Uh, three winners out of four and the one that lost, it was only the outsider that got matched, so it wasn't a disaster. Um, so the orders here would be to back Australia at around 2.4 four and to back England at about uh 5.6 to return the same. Um yeah, I mean it is the perfect scenario really because especially with as we're discussing the potential for the draw to start shortening like I've got a feeling that when this kicks off cuz we I set these prices on what the
16:12 starting price is. I think when this kicks off the draw will be much bigger than eight personally could be double that. Yeah. >> Right. But then there is that potential that a shower comes in or a good partnership comes in in the morning and it collapses a bit and you get um one or both match quite quickly. >> All right. Uh Rich, anything else to add on terms of what happens in the game? >> Yeah, I just well a couple of shout outs to you because you've been talking about route LBW uh in play and we got one up at the MCG and I actually think Sydney could be ground as well because I've always felt you get a little bit lower bound. So keep an eye on the LBs. We've had Crawley stumped already, but Lion's gone. So, just a shout out to us. We we we did get those ones right. It just collapse on side of mentioned it and and
16:59 especially with weather watch. Even England at Leads last year, it was a flat pitch that one, wasn't it? But they went from 398 in the first innings to 465 all out. At Lords last summer, really good weather, but they went from 260 for4 to 387 all all out. And then at the Oval, weather was indifferent, but pitch was okay. 92 for 0247 all out and that was all around when the clouds rolled in apart from at Lords where frankly I'm not quite sure what happened it was just bummer I suppose but um when the when the weather rolls in and the ball starts doing a bit England is just brilliant for extreme unders keep the collapse on side I know I'm banging the drum we've bang so many times before but I I would I just think this series has shown again that that's a way Okay. 0%
17:44 can I just jump in there? Sorry. Um, you got to bang that drum about the runs. Got to keep banging it because the truth is the market's wrong. You've seen this in virtually every inning so far, right? Where never mind the in running and the overreaction in running. But the parlor has started way too high for both teams in innings after innings. I think there was that one innings where England got a massive recovery at the end and turned us over on the play and they got 325 or something. That's the only England one that's gone overs and there was one Australia that's gone overs. But then if you took last week I mean Australia part on a and we all identified we weren't being doing anything particularly clever in saying this is a green pitch and it's
18:30 going to be low runs. Australia runs started like 340 in places, things like that. And England's at 240, 250. It's just too much. And then all it takes is like a partnership of 10 or 20 and the thing goes up 20 or 30. It's crazy. >> Crazy indeed. Also crazy indeed is your 0% margin feature at Seven Bet Sportsbook. The feature at Seven Bet is designed to offer betting odds that do not include the typical margin added by the bookmaker. Check out more of their features on 7bet.co.uk features. We've got the best bets coming at the end of the show, but we want to talk player bets. Now, we'll do Australia first for top Aussie first things bat and bowler. This is where I
19:16 moan about the absolutely pitiful win rates available to us. Really dreadful. And I was talking about it last week, but just some numbers for you. Labashane winning 15.7% last two years. Steve Smith, the the supposedly great Steve Smith wins 10% of the time last two years. Head's only at 18%. And in terms of win rate versus price, there's only Alex Kerry is winning at 18% 17-2 bet 365. I mean, Bo Webster is um someone who has had a couple of wins, I think, from his seven tests or something like that, but I mean, that's no study sample, but um
20:02 he might be an option for you given the the possity of value around top bowler Stark 23-10 with Patty Power, Bet Fair Sports, but he's winning 27% of the time. So, there's no joy there in terms of an edge. And this is the least productive ground in terms of strike rate and average the SCG. Uh so potentially Nissa a shout for back-to- back wins. But uh Rich, you probably want to talk about Scott Boland. >> Yeah. Um absolutely. Boland with the ball anyway. 10 wickets here last year against India. I think he averages eight on this ground. And I just think and I just think he's ball really well in this series. Probably without the results that his efforts deserve. He hasn't had that massive hall yet. You would think that that would change. I must stress before we get to best bets. Me and Paul
20:48 have had an arm wrestle over Poland this week. So, um you will see who's won out on that one. With the bat, uh I'm really frustrated. I mean, I put Niss up in Perth. He didn't play and I put Niss up at the gabber. He did play and didn't win. And obviously, I didn't put him up last week and he did win. Really, really frustrating. But he's obviously interesting if we think it's going to be low scoring. But you know what? The one who stands out for me is Kawaja. And bear with me here. Um, one we said at the start of the series he was in big trouble, but that was when he was opening against Archer and Wood and all England's paces, but Archer Wood and Atkinson have gone home now. Tongue can obviously get it through as can cast, but like I say, they're going to be playing the fifth and third games in a row. That's a big ass. They could be legary and obviously Kawa's protected in
21:34 the middle order now. And he he played well at Adlaid in particular. Even his 20 29 at the MCG was probably worth about 70 on that pitch. And he's got a brilliant record here. Nine tests, four tons, averages 50. He's 13-2 we start. And I just think given where he's batting, he's probably the one for Frost really for me. Talk about this being his last test as well. So, um, it'd be obviously keen to do well. I think it suspect it'll definitely be his last test at home. I think they'll probably want him on that. There's an toe to India coming up. They'll definitely want him there. But um he he just looks the one for me because as you just pointed out Ed there's holes in so many Bar Travis head and Alex Gary all the big guns who are taking up the market that they're questionable. Yeah, Webster by the way 15-2 seven bet uh top Australia
22:21 first bowler 12 to5 seven bet um Paul who' you like well let's add to what Ed Rich was just saying um listen to this statistic so in the last five years at Sydney eight out of the 18 top bat winners a pretty high percentage have batted at either five or six so there's There's another case for Kawaja. But I'll also add to that. I mean, look, the odds have come down, but 17-2 Kerry is wrong. Like, you know, he's clearly like in the top three at least batsman in that side and the top order is no value. And I've got to add as well, I mean, I've got to go with Webster if he's going to play cuz not
23:06 only has he won a couple of times, if you look through his efforts in those seven tests, he's come second or come very close to winning several times as well. So th those three some sort of combination out of Kawaja, Kerry, Webster is the value. I'd also got to go in again. He's already landed once. Um Alice Kerry most Australia sixes in the first innings at 10 to one. It's just wrong. It's just wrong. Look at his average. It's the best in the side or the second best ahead and a lot long way ahead of the rest. >> Okay, let's talk let's talk about uh Webster. I've done him a disservice. Disgraceful on my part. Three wins in seven actually, which is, you know, >> which is bonkers. And also those wins, I
23:53 think they came in uh certainly a couple came West, didn't they on those, >> they were really tough pitches and and he was making his debut in that series, I think. And >> he really dug in well actually. Um Kawaja's win rate is 14%. So we need we need sort of six to one I think. Kawaj to get involved. Um so you might get that sort of in play. I'm just looking now as I speak about um whether we can get sixes on on Kawaj of Top Australia, but I certainly agree with Richard Mann about uh the sort of emotional hedge. I'm often wary of sort of such rationale, but Kawaja is definitely one of those types of players who will uh sort of dig in for for the tears so to
24:39 speak. Uh we get 13-2 star sports. There you go. Australia, top Australia about Kawaja. So that is actually value on win rate. So we've got there in the end. Let's talk about England and more dreadful numbers. Very similar story apart from it being um considerably worse. Look at these numbers. Duck it 7% first win rate last two years. Stokes 4.5%. You've got Crawley and Smith both at 21%. You get sevens with Crawley. Bet Fred Star Sports. I wouldn't want to be on Crawley though, however, on a pitch that does something. Smith is 11s with Bet Fred Root wins 26% of the time. Um, uh, in the second inning, sorry, I messed up the numbers. 26% of the time,
25:26 second innings, uh, 22% in the first, you get 29 to 10. Bet Victor, nothing Doing. Uh, Tongue, uh, 5 to2 top bowler, Sky Bet Power, Bet Fair, Sportsbook. Um, Richard, players to follow. >> Yeah. Well, I initially looked at Rue um for a 50. I'm just looking at the prices now. I think it was about 11 to five because I've always fancied that this is a good ground for him. Um, his first test here, he made a couple of 50s. No good on the last tour, but just a little bit lower bounce here. It's a little bit more like England and I've always felt he can get away with that ride down to third man more. Um, and obviously I don't have a lot of faith in the rest of them. I think probably with Rue I would probably just back him top of England back both innings because he's so good
26:12 in as Zed keeps pointing out in the second innings. Um I just think his class will win out and I'm not bothered about him at the end of a long tour because he's just proven to be so consistent so dialed in. um tongue top England bowler he's the one I'm really frustrated actually I didn't put him up last week having been keen on him in Adelaide but he's just a he's just he's incredible wicket taker you know his strike rate now he's a nudge below 40 I think Anderson's was in the 50s br was in the 50s it's better than Joffer Archer's strike rate I think he's completely underrated to be honest Josh Tong and he'd be the one again for all I'm load to go in having missed the ball last week >> uh Paul yeah hard agree Josh Tongue, great value. Um, again, likewise, really a bit
26:58 annoyed I didn't get involved last week on him. Um, >> I think we mentioned his man of the match, didn't we, Paul? Or is that I made that I'm sure we mentioned his man of the match price at the end. >> He might have got mentioned. Yes. >> Strong words, but didn't. >> Yes. Well, again, and again here, he's 18 to1 for man of the match. Crazy price considering what he's just done, right? And you know say I mean these man of matches very often you when you look through them it's the same group of players who win it regularly you know Travis headers won so many man match awards it's unbelievable um but so tongue for me man of match 18 to1 and also look not all the firms are out with this yet but at the moment you can get I think 23 to 20 best on him getting three wickets or more in the first innings I'll be having some of that um in uh for
27:46 the top bat again I've go back to this like middle order thing five and six u doing really well. So you'd have to look at Brook and Stokes for that. But having said that again 11 to1 about Smith is a bit of an eye-catching price. Okay. Uh just to finish up any bits and bobs I mean shorting somebody like Bethl's runs rich I mean we haven't really mentioned him coming into the side I'm not convinced at all by him because he's a one day player or other players to pick on if it's doing bits and pieces. Uh well I just think a general theme I've been against Brooke so I would if he gets in early enough I'd still be against him. I kind of went low last week but just not low enough. Um poor two for Duck it as well. I mean look he'd be he'd have been a safe under us
28:32 play all the way through. And Jake Weatherald as well big test for him and he's had one score hasn't he really? are um they probably be the three, but um >> yeah, Paul, anything else to add before we go to best bets? >> Well, um look, all the odds aren't out yet, so do keep an eye on the VIP, both the free and VIP channels because we'll put these up. Now, I love this test match end market. You know, I do. I always go on about this. Um, looking at it right now, I'd be quite tempted on backing day 4 evening at 13 to 2 and possibly 8 to 1, day five morning. Um, simply because I think there will be a bit of rain. There will be a few
29:19 delays and so day four evening might effectively be day three evening. >> Okay. All right. We're going to go to best bets. Both Paul and Richard have got five units to spend. Let's go to Richard man first this week. >> Yeah, I did I did reference that me and Paul have had a an arm wrestle over Scott Boland. So, um if if he comes good at he'll have to take some credit, but I'll kick off two and a half points uh Scott Boland over 114.5 player performance points 5 to six with bet 365 and then uh 1.25 25 points Osman Kawaja top Australia first innings bat at 13-2 with star sports and then 1.25 points Joe top England first innings by 7-2 general I think
30:05 >> right if you like the best bets and you like the cricket betting podcast do sign up to 7b.co.uk UK so we can keep producing these pods every week. And if you do sign up to seven bet, you can get a£10 free bet uh with the promo code WFB10 on your first deposit. Min minimum£10 stake£10 free bet minimum odds even money maximum winnings £100 5day expiry bonus T's and S podcast by signing up with seven bet uh because if we don't have our sponsors then we won't be here every week and as you know the cricket never stops. is something that doesn't stop as well as Paul Christian Mury with his five units
30:50 on his best bets please. >> Okay, so I have one point no ton in the match at 4 to1. That's with Bet 365. Again, check the channels because we might get some better prices as more odds come out for all of these. Um, so one point on that. I'll split a point on man of the match. Half a point Scott Boland at 11 to1. That's with MGM and 365 and half point Josh Tongue at 18 to1 which is with bet 365. I'll have uh 1.5 points on Josh Tongue to get over 2.5 wickets in the first innings. That is at least 23 to 20 with live score bet MGM.
31:38 And then I'll have I'll split a point top Aussie bat, Bo Webster and Alex Kerry. I think we got 8 to1 or 17-2 there. And finally half point Alex Kerry most Australia first inning sixes 10 to1 with bet 365. Uh there you go. That has been the cricket betting podcast telling you exactly what happens in the fifth ashes test at the SCG. This is our final show of 2025. So we do wish you a happy new year. We will be back in the new year, of course. Don't forget to sub up to that VIP channel in the comments below with 7% ROI. We're going to finish the year well in profit and we will be in play for the ashes and of course
32:23 providing bets for the big bash, the SAT20, IL20 still going on. So, we're across it all and we'll see you next time on the Cricket Betting Podcast.
