0:00 Welcome to the cricket betting podcast. I am Ed Hawkins and welcome along to your ultimate betting guide to the big bash. We are brought to you by 7bet.co.uk, a fresh sports betting brand that offers such features as early payout bet builder betting insights, a boost and more. Go to sevenbet.co.uk and experience worldclass betting for yourself. We're doing some worldclass betting here on the cricket betting podcast. Our best bets are plus 35.99. And on this show, we will name the winner and the finalists for the big bash courtesy of Paul Christian Merty and Richard Man. Paul Christian is plus 30.7 on those best bets. Are you bash ready Paul?
0:45 >> Just about it. Just about just about found enough time in this busy schedule to have a study. >> This is the busiest time of the cricket year. It's uh and it's going going to get worse or better depending on your on your view. Uh but the bash is our focus today. No ashes today. That might be a blessing for some. An 11-2 winner for Richard man last week on best bets takes him to plus 5.9. Hello Richard. >> Evening Ed. >> Great stuff. Um, if you want more hot tips from Paul, Richard, and myself, and we will be putting up more bash tips on there in due course, check out the VIP Telegram channel, which you can subscribe to. We're also in profits over
1:32 there. Every line game covered. We do inplay as well, straight to your Telegram channel on your phone or the device of your choice, of course. So, what is on this show? It is the Big Bash Ultimate Betting Guide. Every team analyzed in reverse price order. That's to come. Every team rated for batting and bowling power, possible 11s for you, player win rates, trades and angles, the all important and trademark Paul Merty ground guide and player churn, which is a major issue in the bash. Everything you need is right here to bet on it. First, you need an outright. Let's do that. Hurricanes falls generally they're the favorites of course they are the
2:17 champions. Sixers next best at five generally. Scorches fives also 365 boil stars um betway heat 13-2 lab star sports coral thunder 13-2 generally strikers 72 bet victor stars at 10 with 365 renegades 11s bet MGM and virgin bet. Um let's get into it. Richard, you love the bash. Why >> I love it? Well, look, from a punting point of view, some real familiarity. Um, some sort of re real core staple of teams if you like. You know, the sixes per scotch cuz their teams have hardly changed over the last few years. So, I definitely think that helps. Paul's going to talk about grounds later on, but you kind of know these grounds like
3:02 the back of our hands now. And I think that really helps. Um, and one thing I've always felt, maybe not so much last year, but in the past, there's always quickly been able to establish a gulf between best and worst. You know, you think of Perth and Sixers and then a few sides in the middle and then particularly the Melbourne teams like really out of it at the bottom. Um, and with a bad teams and it can be a frustrating watch at time, but you can get some crazy cricket, some real bad beats from from winning positions, improbable wins from the likes of sixes and Perth. And I've had some of my very best wins actually in this competition doing that. I've had some pretty bad moments as well, by the way, without bad cricket. Um, but I'm the sort of pun who I do like to bet contrarian and and
3:48 trade on these T20 matches and it it can be great fun for that. Yeah, I don't think I'm speaking out of turn, Rich. It might have been last year or the bash the previous one, but I think I seem to recall you getting about 20 or 30 points in a week or or something on on last year wasn't great. The year before was great. We had we had on this show actually we had we had Brisbane Heat outright and yeah, just throughout the tournament it was there's a lot of with a poor team you can generally get some big price top batsman market winners. people like when Thunder were really poor. Chris Green, Nathan Macand do were great for them. Will Sutherland used to do it for the Renegades. Last year it didn't seem to to work out quite as well. Um but I I
4:34 love with these poor sides and look there are some there have been some real bad sides in this over the years. I think you can get some real angles on them actually and sometimes just watch and let sixers do their thing at the top of the show. But um when it's bad it can sometimes pay to get involved. Uh Paul talking about getting involved. It's a mad time of the year for cricket betting. We obviously got the bash starting. The IL20 is happening. The SAT20 is starting towards the end of the month. We've got India in action. New Zealand western test match all covered on the VIP of course. Something called the Ashes. Um any tips, Paul, when when it's so hectic like this, do you got to pick your spots? Can you do it all? >> No, you can't do it all. Um, look, first
5:20 first tip, get on the Korean Jins Singh. Stock up. Stock up. You're going to need it cuz there's no no sleep for next month. But seriously, Rich, what Rich just said teed it up perfectly because you've got to know your strengths. Right now, we're talking big bash today. Now, I'll hands on the table. Pre-match. I'm fine in the big bash because I've caught up on the what's happened before, watch the highlights, but I can't make those inplay decisions at 8:00 in the morning. I don't do it. I haven't bet in play on the big bash for years because simply, you know, Rich's got kids. He's up first thing in the morning. He's on it. He's on it. He's all over it. And he's mastered a big bash. Me, I'm up all night watching documentaries about the Russian mafia
6:06 and things. You know, I'm n 8:00 in the morning. I can't do it. My brain just doesn't function. So, I stick to the in play. But, so that's it for the next month. Do that big bash. I'm not even doing that in play. I'd rather stick to the test matches really. Uh, and I don't mind the T20. That's not a nice time of day. Grounds we know well in in the UAE. But this one for me is just pre-match. Um, and I would recommend that to anyone. We're going to have times when there's four or five matches on in the day. You can't do them all. I'd say pick two, maximum three. There you go. Cricket betting podcast brought to you by Korean Jins Singh. Let's talk about the bash anyway in housekeeping how it works. It's your normal sort of franchise style tournament with your top four qualifying
6:52 for an IPL playoff style. Three overseas players in each of the 11s. Last five season, the league winner has gone on to win the title. Uh only four winners out of 14 have come outside the top two finishing positions in the league. Uh sixers have finished top two, six of the last six. Striker zero from seven. Renegades one from seven, stars from one from seven in terms of top two finishes. That's what we're talking about with um Richard alluded to about some very poor teams in this league and some very decent teams. a couple of teams with with pedigree in the bash. Um so you do have to finish in the top four. Let's go to Paul Christian's all important ground
7:38 guide now. Top betting lines Paul from uh the venues which we think have the strongest uh trends. >> Okay. Um so first of all study sample is the last five years going back December 2020 only big bash matches. Um, we're looking at two indicators, which is, well, three indicators, which I'm only going to talk about two here, the runs and the sixes. The others would be back first, back second. There's not that much going on there in terms of advantage, but so for the first innings runs, we're going to rank them. We're going to rank them one to nine. Okay, so number one is Adelaide. That is definitely the best place for higher runs. 41% of first innings hit 180. 22%
8:24 hit 200 plus. That's well ahead of the rest. Second place, solid all round is the gabber 64% first things hit 160 plus and it's not necessarily a clue but that was a good pitch last week wasn't it in the ashes and I think batting conditions could be pretty good this year at Brisbane. Third place I've got Bel Ree Hobart and that has a higher 160 plus average. 66% of first innings hit 160 but it's behind the gabber because only one match in 29 has been 200 in the first inning. So that's more of a middling ground. Uh fourth place is the Marvel home to Melbourne Renegades. 62% 100 62% of first innings go 160. But here that might be an underestimate
9:10 because I think if you look over the years, Renegades have been so poor with the bat. I think the average would be higher if it were a better side. Um, next we've got the U SCG which has second best second most amount of 180 first innings. 33% of matches at SGCG see 180 in the first innings. However, this is also is somewhat conditions dependent. There's a lot of sub 160s as well. So, it's kind of make your mind up once you see the overheads. Then you got three very closely matched grounds, all pretty much middling. That's the MCG, Perf, and the Manuka Oval. And then in last place, tailed off last, a long way behind the rest, is the Showground Stadium, home to Sydney Thunder. Only 29% of first innings hit 160 plus. Now,
9:59 on the sixes front, slightly different order. So in top place here again by a long long way is the Marvel Stadium. 41% of first of matches here see 15 or more sixes and only 31% 10 or less which kind of like lends to what I said before but this might be a bit underestimated on the runs front. This is a good batting track. Marvel second place Adelaide which was top of the runs 25% of matches see 15 plus sixes and only 44% 10 or less now from here every team every other ground the main grounds has at least 50% of the matches are 10 or fewer sixes which is quite an angle because I don't think that I think the line for most games is
10:47 going to be 11 and 1/2 10 and 1/2 maybe 12 and a half so most of the time unders is going to be value here I think Um so third highest ground is Bel Reeve but only 18% of matches see 15 or more sixes 54% 10 or fewer then we have Perth 15% uh 15 plus then the GABA down in fifth only 12% now 15 or more sixes then the Manuka the show ground is down at 8% only 8% of matches 15 plus and 75% 10 or fewer and then these two massive grounds where sixes is just a it's always an unders bet. The SCG 76% of games 10 or fewer and only 5% 15 plus and in bottom
11:33 place because one of the stats 83% of of matches at the MCG come in 10 or fewer sixes. Um 24 matches out of 29. 17 out of 29. So well more than half come in under nine. Um so basically the line there has to be 8.5. if it's over 8.5 under his value and I'm sure we're going to get some games which 9.5 we might be getting 10.5 somewhere. >> There you go. The trademarked Bushmi ground guide. Uh six is a strong angle for us no doubt throughout the bash. Let's talk about player churn. Now before we get into the team by teams first thing to say is there's no SAT20 expected departures at the moment. We
12:19 have players in the arrivals lounge at some point. So that's Sam Curran at Sixers. David Payne at Perth, Locky Ferguson at Thunder and Tim David at Shajgera from um Charger. He's coming from Charger to Hobart. This is LT20. So we don't know when those players are b going to turn up. Apart from David, we're pretty sure he's going to be there from the start. Now the playoffs start January 26 in the bash. So key dates for diary Pakistan T20 Sri Lanka versus Pakistan Jan 721 possible exits for Baba Babam at the Sixers Shahina Pred at the Heat Mohammed Razwan at Renegade Shab Khan at Sydney Thunder and Ralph at Melbourne Stars
13:06 Indian versus New Zealand White Ball Jan 11 to Jan 31 so Finn Allen scorches sea at Renegades and Ferguson at Thunder potentially all going out. England are in Sri Lanka from Jan 22 onwards. So this would potentially put Jamie Overton and Luke Wood both at strikers and Rahham Ahmed at Hobart and Sam Curran at six out of uh the playoffs if they were to get there. Um Australia players coming back in. It does sound as though fitness permitting test players could be available for the last three games and the playoffs and that seems to be benefiting sixers most of all because they have Smith and Stark and Stark does
13:55 not come with an asterisk this time. He has actually said he is going to play for the first time in years. I did um see the picture of him last time playing in pink and he looks 10 years younger. Um so it probably was 10 years ago. Uh there we go. We're going to go to team by team in a second, but first of all, just let me tell you about the 0% margin feature at 7 bet sportsbook. Designed to offer betting odds that do not include the typical margin added by the bookmaker. Check out more features on 7bet.co.uk features. Let's go to this team by team with the bash. We're going to start reverse price order. So, it's men Melbourne Renegades last two years finished sixth and seventh. They're eighth on batting power. That's
14:41 communive strike rate over two years. Bowling rank, they are third. That's communive economy over the last two years. Same filters on your top bat win percentage. It's seaffort winning 30% of the time and top bowler to follow is Barendor 32% who arrives from Perth. is a decent sign. Impossible 11. Fraser Mcgherk Seafoot Brown Rizwan Jules Sutherland, Hassan Khan, the USA allrounder Rogers Baron O'Neal and Zamper. Uh, I did struggle to pick the 11 for this team. Uh, which is why it's such a useful exercise when you're trying to work out which teams are balanced and not not sure where all the allrounders are. Did they really need Baronov because they're well stocked
15:27 with paces? Richard views on where they finish? >> Sixth, if you want an exact number, I think they'll finish sixth in the league table. Middle, middle to low. Um, Baron off excellent signing though and and I think the bowling stacks up pretty well. I think depends what sort of pitches they produce at home because if they produce friendly pitches, they could do some damage. But the batting last year looked strong on paper and it didn't fire, did it? Fraser Mcgherk Brown was a bigname signing. Didn't work out. Um, and again, we've been saying this for a few years now about the Renegades. Oh god, they look good on paper, dangerous side on paper. Haven't really delivered and I I think it'll probably be rinse and repeat. >> Paul, how do they go? >> Similar similar. I mean, interesting
16:14 signings. Baronorf obviously Brennan Dogit as well because, you know, probably not going to play the whole test series, so he might a few games. >> And um, most interestingly, Ryzswan. I mean this is I think the big the most interesting subplot of this big bash is these uh Pakistan signings. Really interesting. Rizwan could do very very I don't think this stands in the big bash is all that at all. So RZWang could really do some damage but he's going to need to because their batting is poor. It was terrible last season. Um has generally been for years and you do need big runs at the marvel as I said before. So definitely a line for renegades for me. Uh yeah, as we said, they're uh bottom uh ranked in terms of batting power. Have you got any sort of inplays,
17:00 strategies, nuggets, rich for these for these Renegades? >> Well, Paul's talked about the Docklands. I I wonder what sort of pictures they'll produce at home with that same attack. I we we do get the odd green top at the Docklands. I I agree with Paul, but we we have had a few green ones over the last few years, particularly first innings anyway. So, um I I'd just be interested to see what pictures they produce early season. Seaffort was a standout last year and I've noticed in the the team um season um one scoring mark with bet 365 [clears throat] he's 8 to1. Um now I know there's some potential unavailability issues there but it looks a big price really considering he was much the best for them last year. >> Yeah, Renegades 7-2 favorites to finish bottom generally. They're 11s to win it.
17:48 Paul, anything to add? >> Well, just I mean that 8 to1 FIFA, I didn't know about that. That's a mad price. That's insane if you can get it. Um, just to repeat really about the sixes. Good place to do sixes. The Marvel. And I would just say as well, I mean, in the past, their middle orders, I think, has won quite a lot of top backs. Like Will Southerntherland in particular. >> Uh, yes, Will Southerntherland. I can give you a live price on Southerntherland as we uh speak. Paul, I'll just let you know that Renegades um are um 11 to one to win the title. One second as I try and find the Southerntherland price for you. I think I think it's a couple of wins. It's two wins in 18, but 11%. Um so, you
18:36 know, you might be getting some prices on him um on the top bats. We'll keep an eye on that and alert you if the layers make a mistake. Let's move on to Stars who are 4 to one to finish bottom. They've never won the Big Bash. Uh they came fourth last time and sixth the season before. They're very much middle of the road on your batting and bowling ranks. Fifth and fourth respectively, 10 to one to win it. Uh top bat win rates last two years, it's Glenn Maxwell 29% of the time. A top bowler last two years is Steti 25%. Unfortunately, he has been ruled out of the tournament. That's news
19:22 has just sort of come through in the last 12 hours or so. So, we're going to give you an update on that um by the win rate for you in a second. Possible 11 for you. Campbell Kellaway, Joe Clark or Harper opening the batting alongside. We've got Harper playing but he might bat three if we lower down the order. Maxwell Stois can't right Tom Cullen. Ralph Swepson and Sidel John Melo perhaps coming in for Stei if they want an extra allrounder. Webster is a huge loss. You'll notice Bo Webster is no longer with the stars. He's gone to home but Hurricanes Paul they've never won it. Is this the
20:07 season? >> No, no, no, no. I couldn't be more negative on them really. They weren't anywhere near good enough before and the scoring is definitely weaker. Um Sigeti is a huge loss. Absolutely huge loss. But also Ben Ducket, they ain't got Ben Ducket this year. Um 243 runs in seven games last year. Where would they have been without him? and Bo Webster of course um it strikes me that they are totally reliant on again on Storinis and Maxwell and Maxwell had a great season last year and it wasn't enough and generally speaking for me I think Maxwell's a luxury player I'd want to be against the team he was in >> just update on that um win rate top bowler and this highlights why he's such
20:55 a big miss there is only two players who've won more than twice on top bowler in the last two years in the bash and one of those is Bo Webster who doesn't play for him anymore. So problems for the stars stars not aligning Richard. >> No I don't think so. I think one to finish bottom looked pretty fair to me actually. Uh Paul's right to bring up the Maxwell thing. He averaged 54 last year with about a striker of 186. Got them out of some holes on a number of occasions but he's never been one to to back it up, hasn't he? He's he's very in and out and if he has a poor season they'll be absolutely cooked. They really will be. Um I think they'll struggle really. Um bowling wise Mick Swepson is an interesting signing. I
21:40 know that he's 8 to1 for topseason bowler for them and with no Ketti he look two years ago um he was one of the big reasons why Brisbane heat won this competition with spinner in the middle overs. So that looks a bit of bit of value. Um but overall I think they'll struggle. >> Any other nuggets for stars going forward Paul? >> Well, just check out just people have got to listen to the read the VIP channel this week to get Rich his team by team bets. That's another absolute storming bet 8 to1 on Swepson who I'd thought played pretty much every game and I agree completely 4 to1 B fishing bottom good value price and to repeat >> to repeat MCG unders on sixes >> I I I must stress actually that this is
22:26 very much an alert for listeners because Scetti I can't pronounce his name right is six to four favorite with bet 365 so how long that lasts who knows but 8 to one about Swepson or someone else in there as well. I mean Tom Curran's very handy all rounder probably ball of the death. He's usually he's usually a look actually for top stars batsman him and and Katr was dreadful last year wasn't he? But um but Coin in particular I do like him at big price in that middle order. >> All righty. Uh just on Maxwell if he does get in a funk and he can't seem to get a score. He's spoken in the past but he just doesn't know how to get out of that >> that rut. So, um, don't expect Maxwell to suddenly come good if he's if he's
23:12 struggling. Adelaide striker the next 17-2 to win it. 4 to1 to finish bottom 11 at Coral Bet MGM and Virgin Bet 8th last season, fourth the season before. They're number one for batting rank and they're number eight for bowling rank. But Paul's kind of already explained why that is. It's because of the Adelaide ground. It's not un um unsurprising really that they would have those numbers cuz it's such a flat w flat wicket. Your top bat win percentage top guys in the last two years is Matthew Short 44%. Top bowler last two years is Jamie Overton 28%. Your possible 11 is Jason Sanka has ris arrived from Thunder
23:59 who's a a good signing had terrible injury problems. Can he put them behind him opening batting with Shaw Lynn Ross Harvey Jamie Overton Neielson Hassan Ali Luke Wood Pope and Thornton it's not Ollie Pope although some would suggest he should be batting down there. Lloyd P the spinner heading Harry potentially to come back in but we do say every season oh you know could strikers may suddenly make a charge for it um and it doesn't really come off and head didn't actually play last season Kerry played three games um another difficult 11 to pick Richard I found signing three overseas uh players who
24:45 basically all do the same thing along that spectrum of sort of bowling all rounder uh is really quite something. Um what are your views? >> Yeah, they they didn't really got recruitment right for a while now, have they? But I tell you what, that top order looks pretty good to me. I mean, Matt Shaw missed a few last year and he had some injury issues, but the year before that he was unbelievable in this competition. Chris Lynn, I mean, we only have to go back to the T20 blast in England. He lit up finals day. Sanger agrees a good signing. Top order looks really strong to me. I'm not quite sure where I see these whether they're contenders or whether they're absolutely not and so I suspect they'll probably finish somewhere in the middle of that but the top order in particular is is dynamite and loads of experience there
25:30 as well. a booming pull when Adelaide were were decent. They had Rashid Khn in in the 11 on a flat pitch and you know if he would go at sort of eight and a half and over that would make all the difference but there is no point of difference now for this Adelaide bowling attack. I just don't really see they're not really doing one thing or the other in reacting to this flat pitch. >> Yeah, look I think you're right. I mean that is that's I mean there's definitely a big imbalance in this side. Um completely agree with Rich. It's great batting order. Really great batting order. You know Short and Lynn in particular, you really want them, but Alex Ross as well very good last season. Uh Jamie Overson very good in the middle order. Um
26:17 the bowling's been ordinary. They've got Luke Wood and Hassan Ali reasonable signings. Maybe a slight improvement. I mean, I'm inclined to think the same as Rich, like I think they'll finish fourth or fifth. I think they'll get in the playoffs. They're not imp it's not impossible to see them to see them winning it, but they're not one of the favorites. >> What they might win is the highest team score. And always want to get Rich's view on this. The market he likes their 13-2 bet 365 bet MGM Virgin Bets. The highest team score in the tournament. uh they did win it last season. Pete and Hurricanes tied the previous season. Rich, any views on that market or something else entirely related to
27:03 strikers? >> No, I'm glad you brought that up actually because yeah, that's an excellent spot just because they're going to obviously play all the home games here at Adelaide where it's such a good pitch. Um that gives them a massive advantage and I think purely on that 13-2's value, especially if you think Shaw and Lynn are going to stay fit, that's obviously key. They made 251 last year I think against Brisbane Heat. Pretty good attack actually Brisbane Heats as well. So that was a really good effort and and Paul's [clears throat] obviously took on the ground but you know we had a we had a both teams to score once here 200 we had uh both teams to score 190 on another occasion two 180s and then obviously that 251. It is a place for runs isn't it Paul? >> Yeah it's definitely the place. Um I think that's another great angle 13-2
27:49 high score. I mean, there aren't going to be that many plus 200 plus scores in the tournament, you know, and you're bound to get one or two here. So, >> huge value. Uh, the one one other bet I noticed here, Jamie Overton player performance. He averaged 52 last year in this. So, I would imagine that's going to win more games than not. And, you know, decent form for England recently, especially with a bat. >> Yeah, it looks absolutely crucial for strikers, Overton. Um, we're still going. Don't forget Paul and Richard will name the winner of the bash and the runner up at the end of the show and more top tips coming on that VIP channel which you can subscribe to in the comments below. We are in profit on VIP. Um let's move on to Sydney Thunder.
28:34 They're 13-2 to win it. It's 3 to1 to reach the final with Bet MGM and VBET. They were the surprise package last season despite incredible um player churn and fitness fitness issues. Uh there there are occasions where they didn't look like they were going to get an 11 out, but they finished third uh improving on eighth the previous season. Their batting rank is number seven. Their bowling rank is fifth. David Warner top rated for top bat last two years 35% of the time. Your top bowler is Tanvang with 28%. They should line up something like this. Warner, Constus, Bankro Davies Billings Green Sams Shadab, Macandrew, Toprey or Ferguson
29:22 and Tanvir Sanger. Um, possible possible Bolter in terms of a lineup. Um, if they want to get rid of Brooft, I think it might be a bit too slow and I think that would be smart. Maybe Tom Andrews, Sam's, Green or Shadab getting a sort of pinch hitter roll at at number three. Keep an eye on that. Uh Paul, I mean they've got a lot of number um eights, haven't they? I mean, Green looks a bit higher. I mean, he's better before, but what's your view on that balance of that Thunder team and can they improve on that third place finish? >> I I don't mind having those sort of well, you call number eights, but you know, you call number sixes as well. say Daniel Sams as well and Ashley Richard
30:09 could play anywhere really in that. I don't mind that. That gives them a better balance. I mean they they've been pretty reasonable in recent years. They sort of punched above their weight a lot. I think they seem quite organized and balanced. What would really worry for me is two things. I don't think the bowling is all that to be honest. I think Shidab Khan's one of the most interesting players in this tournament. He's been good in T20 before, so he could make a diff big difference, but not excited about the rest. But the other thing is it's the old David Warner question, isn't it? 405 runs last year when we were all writing him off, right, as being finished. But he is finished sooner or later, isn't he? >> Right. Was that maybe the last terra
30:56 when he was still relatively fresh off higher stands for cricket? How much has he played in the last year? You know, um >> yeah, >> and if you take if Warner doesn't produce, then they're in a lot of trouble, I think. >> Yeah, it was terrible in the major league in in the States. >> Um Rich Bis got the coach got him playing last season. Big surprise package. >> What's your thoughts? >> Yeah, he did. didn't look excellent white ball coach, brilliant CV, but I'm with Paul on on the Warner thing. He did so well last season. Excellent as captain and I think Sam Billings behind the stumps. He's brilliant at marshalling the teams. England could do with a bit of him actually um from what we saw from Jamie Smith this week. But Warner is aging and sooner or later he's
31:42 going to catch up with him. And Billings is batting as well. he was reduced to a bit part player in 100 for the overal invincibles or whatever they called next year Mumbai something something um you know he hardly batted he was pushing himself down the order and then here he's going to be one of the main men and I just worry that if Warner doesn't fire um and they won a lot of games last year by the way sort of getting those middle scores where Warner would make 60 off 55 balls start slowly and catch up and it's a dangerous strategy is that in T20 because you can maybe take 20 balls to get 15 and if you get out your team are bang under it and I've got a sneaky feeling that might happen this year. >> Anything to add on Thunder Paul? >> Just again like that could be a value angle taking on Warner
32:29 >> either in the se season long market or match by match very short price every game and I'll be looking at what Chris Green and Shadab Khan performance is each game. Uh just jumping on what Paul said, I think what you have to do is you have to take a look first few games, see how Warner is going and if you think he's struggling with Constus by the way, who's had a real struggle. He made 100 in Sheffield Shield I think last week, but it's been a terrible run for Constas and Billings as well. There are some question marks there in that top order. And if you think Warner is struggling, then you say, "Right, Macandro 66 to one. Chris Green has been buying at number six sometimes for New South Wales. Right, I'm gonna try and get some 25s, 33s about him. Sam's maybe if he can get a price. But again, it's it it
33:16 does center around Warner because if he's playing well, he's quite selfish. He'll queue the balls up and he'll he'll grind out a score. But if you think he's gone wide open this market, Rody, that is the halfway point. A reminder to sub up to that VIP channel for best tips straight to your Telegram channel. Uh get subbed up as well to cickstats.ai, AI, the ultimate cricket betting tool to uncover the value. Paul and Rich tell you the winner of the bash and finalist at the end of the show. Uh we're going to do the top four in the betting. Now obviously we continue with the reverse order. So it is to the hot hot heat or perhaps not the Brisbane heat seventh last season which was some pull from grace considering they won it the previous year. Batting rank is
34:02 number three. bowling rank on economy is number six 13-2 to win it six to1 to finish bottom with bet MGM virgin bet the batter to follow is Nathan Mcweeny 23% win rate not sure whether you're going to get um value on win rate versus Osman's implied prob probability but we'll see uh good bowler to follow though last two years rock solid Xavier Bartlett winning 32% % of the time. Spencer Johnson is a major loss to injury. He plays no part in this tournament and the possible 11 for you is heat potentially getting Kawaja back as a boost to open the batting with
34:48 Monroe McWeeny there at three. All wrenchaw ria fingers crossed for heat that he gets back into the action um and Australia don't need him anymore. Wildermouth, Bartlett, Shaheen, Afredi, and Matt Kunaman. Um, Labashane of course potentially coming back for the last three group stages and playoffs. Very very reliant on Michael Nissa though, Richard. Um, last few years. >> Yeah, but it's a pretty good new ball attack, isn't it? With Bartlett in there as well and and obviously a Frey. I mean, I looked initially and thought Johnson, I mean, it is a big loss, but that's still a pretty good pace attack. And they've had that for the last few years. A year though, it was built on a brilliant new ball attack. I do think
35:34 the ball sides out. I'm just not quite quite as convinced by the batting to be honest. I mean, Kawaja coming back looks a good thing on paper, but really I'm not sure. He might just take up a place at the top of the order. He looks shot to pieces to me. >> Uh Paul, I'm going to call it. I suspect he leave you cold and um they might you might think they'll finish bottom. No, no, far from it. Far from it. I think they're contenders. Um, >> look, I like I've liked them their attitude in recent years. They just seem like a good organized team. They struggled last year, but they had a lot of changes, promotions, national squads, and you had things like I mean, they lost Josh Brown and then Colin Maro had
36:19 a really terrible season, but he's played well since in the CPL, so hopefully better from him. Kawage is a big question. You know, if he is gone, obviously that's a big problem. But he might thrive in this much lower standards of cricket and if he does, I think they got a great chance. I think Shaheen Freed is an amazing signing that brilliant, brilliant signing. Um, and he could be a class above at this level and also contributes with the bat as well. Freedy good here at the deaf. So, I think they're contenders. I think they're top three. >> Yeah, I know Paul so well. You see nuggets for for heat, Richard. Oh, well I'm happy that you got Jack Wildermouth uh potentially playing in the 11. I really rate him all rounder and I don't understand why he hasn't played the last few years, but he's he's been a good
37:04 nick domestic cricket. People will look at his bowling but he can bat you know he can really bat and if he goes under the radar early season Wildermouth sort of seven eight might bat ahead of me so I'm not too sure. I'm hoping for some big prices but he he'll be some value. You know the hard to land out of these top batsman markets down the order at big prices. But I tell you, I think we'll get some wrong prices about Wildermouth. >> Yeah. The wrong prices. Sorry, Paul. >> Sorry Joe, you're all right. You're right. Absolutely. It's probably the best tournament of the year for all that for um wrong prices. Um, look, I don't know much about these two players, so I'm calling on your wider expertise if you know them or listeners, but Hugh Wegben and Lacklan Hearn both get good
37:50 writeups as good prospects. Two young batsmen they've signed and again great bowling attack. If they could just add one more quality batsman in there, Mro get form Kawaj at this level, I think they have a really big chance. Yeah, Webban from Thunder. Had a look at a bit of him, some of his numbers. It looks like a first class player to me. Same with Lacklin actually. So, it's going to be a big leap for them to be top of the order, I think, and and striking at the sort of numbers that they need to to win games for their team. That's not to say that they don't occupy the crease and, you know, strike about 113, 115 and win a top bat, though. Um, you don't have to be taking huge risks to win a top bout. We don't mind that at all. Um,
38:38 can we move on from heat? I think we can. Uh, we've got the Scorches next. 5 to1 to win it 21 to 10 with 365 to make the final. Fifth last season, third the season before. They're number six on batting power. The most economical team in the bash in the last two years. That's perhaps no surprise. top bat player to follow is English winning 25% of the time. Richard man informed me before we came on the show that um Morris who was the top pick on bowler um with a 29% win rate is out. So let's give you a possible 11. Uh P Allen the Kiwi who we've already mentioned could
39:24 be in and out. Mitch Marsh is a major boost from Connelly. I think this is going to be a big season with Connie. Connelly, Lori Evans, Hardy Turner, Hobson, Agar Richardson, David Payne, then with no Morris it'll be Joel Paris, Broady Couch potentially. Marley Beardman's also been talked up. So, one of those three um Matthew Kelly another one who could come into the team. They've got so many pace options. Perf always have done. They have lost Baron off which is a blow though. Um Paul the ultimate pedigree team, aren't they Perth? Are they going to improve after a bit of a spell in the doldrums? The balance looks pretty good.
40:11 I'm not convinced that they are the pedigree side. You never write them off, but they've lost Baron D. That's a big loss. Josh English has been critical to this side over the years. He's in international setup now. Um they've lost um saying last Morris is out and I read there's a question mark over Andrew Tai as well so the bowling could be quite hit here. Um Marley Berbin was in the Australian side wasn't he recently so presume that he'll he'll be stepping up. Um not ruling them out at all but not for me. I think they haven't if anything they're going to go backwards or they stay where they were last year. uh rich views from you. I mean no Baronov, no Morris in terms of top bowler that is the last two years that
40:58 is 62% of the of the win rate uh gone like that. Um Jan Richardson has played only 12 games over the last two years. Injury problems for him. Can he stay fit? He's going to need to. What are your thoughts? >> Don't take me now negative town head. This these are mine. These are mine this year. I've really come come around to them this weekend. The bowling's took a hit and it's always been the strength so it is concerning but Richardson by all accounts he's fully fit again. He only played five games last year got good spin with Agar and Connelly. They do probably need to find a pace but pro I was looking at his domestic form for Western Australia. He's ball really well. Um and obviously they've got experience of David Payne who I don't actually think is a world beer. you are
41:44 banking on someone coming up and stepping in like Beardman, but I mean that's just been the scorchers way over the last few years. But the batting I think is the strongest batting lineup in the competition. Mitch Marsh have been absolutely superb for Australia across white ball forms in this last year. He'd been like a new signing for them. Finn Allen can just do what he wants up top. He'll just go bang from ball one because there's so much depth. I agree with you. I think big year for Connelly. Got Lori Evans back. He may be a bit long in the tooth, but two years ago he was sensational for them in this competition. They' have probably won it actually that year had he not gone away. I think it was to the ILT20. And I mean Hardy's down at six. I mean he's he's been phenomenal in this competition. Ashen Turner too. The batting to me I mean you we've got Agar down at number
42:30 eight. That's serious serious depth. Always a tough nut to crack at home as well. So you think you can bank good points there. For me that they're the probably the most solid outfit. I know I usually go balling first, but the batting just looks incredible. >> Any other bids for Perth? Paul, >> the one thing I'll be keeping on Cooper Connelly player performance average 48 last year, >> Rich? >> Yeah. Well, Cooper Connelly 14 over and again, it's just with 365. More firms will price up this, but he's 14 overall um top tournament batsman. I I could see it being his year. Mick Mar his 12elves as well actually and he'll play all season. If you think they're going to go well, those are two interesting prices. You might get a little bit bigger when everyone else is
43:16 priced up. >> I was just going to say as well if we're looking at this team by team stuff as it comes out this week, surely given all these bowling problems, Marley Beardman's got to be worth a look. >> He'd be Yeah, very interesting to see how he's priced. Another thing I want to say, sorry I did did forget. Um Paul's gone through the ground guys, but one thing that is always good at Perth, he's very good for strong finishes here. So it can be tough up front and particularly when you're facing per strong seam attack. They can take early wickets >> but but it's not particularly easy to defend at the death because if you pitch the ball up, it's a real short hit and we've seen some really strong finishes here over [clears throat] the years. You think last year Melbourne Renegades pulled off a ridiculous run chase here last year when when essentially dead and
44:02 buried and Will Sutherland got them over the line batting with the tail. Sydney Thunder Futherford you remember him smacking I think it was about 18 off the last over. It's a good ground for late finishes particularly if there's been early wickets because obviously the lines dropped dramatically. Um generally he's a good pitcher once you get through that new ball. Don't tell England that though. Uh well, there you go. Richard's um given the game away early, but it Perth's likely to be his pick. Uh I think they're certainly going to be in in the final. According to Richard, we've got two teams still to go. It's the Sydney Sixers next. They're five to one to win. Twos to reach the final with L MGMB Bet and Coral second on the
44:47 ladder last season. The previous year they were runners up. Fourth for batting rank, second on bowling rank, Henrik's 25% win rate on top bas 40%. That's the best in the competition. Top bowler. Uh has had a niggle of course missed out on that ashes squad. So his fitness is one to check on. Possible 11 for you. Babar Hughes, just Phipe, Sam Curran, Jordan Silk, Enrique, Ker Edwards Abbott Dwarious Murphy, Stark for the last three group games and finals. Steve Smith potentially as well. We know Baba could leave, but um Steve Smith not a bad replacement. And as Paul said, uh
45:35 somebody like Babraam not really on our T20 radar a lot of the time, but this is not a quality competition. and he should do very well. Um, so they have pedigree. Uh, Richard, I mean actually 13 to 20 to make the top four. Got no doubts about balance. Could get stronger. Going to be hard to stop. >> Well, they are solid out there. Look, you would think they'll definitely finish top four. I've had worries for a few years that it might just be an aging side now and that we might have seen the best of them. I actually don't think Baba's a good replacement for James Vince just in this situation because Vince has been so good for them over the years. Um, but it's interesting when you talk about those international players coming back. You would think the the
46:22 core group that they've kept together will get them so far that then Stark and Smith can take over that man. I think if you're backing them, you know, even as a trade, you think they'll get far enough and then obviously when the big boys come back, they are going to be very dangerous. Paul, your views on Sixers? >> I'm a big fan. Been a big fan of them for years. Really like the way they're organized, the way they're set up. They're quality pedigree side. Um, I agree with what Rich said about Vince. I mean, Bubba should have a good tournament. I mean, personally, I think he's on the downgrade, but he's still class at this level. But James Vince's got 228 runs in six games last year, so no mean feet emulating him. Um, but they've got a cracking squad. I think
47:07 they're, you know, their record speaks for itself. I think they'll definitely be in the shakeup at the end. And then you get Smith and Stark at the end. So, you know, they're the team speak for me. >> Where's to play, Richard? >> Well, I've given up on Jack Edwards as an open. I got big prices about him a few occasions last year when he did go up to open when Hughes got injured and it just didn't work out. He's run out one game when going to win. But he's a really good cricketer. Jack Edwards, big price in the middle order. I'll probably follow him. Another thing that the Sixers have always done, win close games. Brilliant team to trade. Beat Thunder on the last ball last year. Beat strikers by three wickets with a ball to spare as well. So they're generally good at getting up in in close games. And when they're behind the eightball, that's usually the time to back them. So
47:54 rock solid side. Paul. >> Well, um, two to one to reach the final to win it. I want to do I will put something up on the channels this week about naming the finalists. I like that market a lot cuz I think it's quite a gulf between the sides. Um, and I already mentioned unders on sixes at the SCG. >> Righty. Hoba hurricanes are your champions. They won it last season and they came from fifth the previous season to do it four to one to win at 13 to8 for another final with Labrooks and Coral. At number two on batting power, number seven on bowling rank. That is very interesting because we're going to talk about that bowling lineup at the moment. It looks it looks
48:41 incredibly strong. Um Rahan Armed apparently has gone home already. He was on the Lions tour with a leg strain. So, the possible 11 for you could look like this. Matthew Wade also a little bit of a niggle. Mitch Owen also got a hamstring injury as well at the moment. Um, so this is an 11 which we think is going to be their first choice. So Owen Wade opening the batting McDermott, Tim David, Bo Webster, massive sign. Nicole Chowry, who you've been listening to this show for a long time. We called him being a player to watch and he's won big prices on the markets. Rahan Armit would
49:28 have made our 11, but we've got Rishain in this team now instead. Jordan, Meredith, Ellis, and Stan Lake completing the lineup. Um they look even stronger than last season after they've signed Webster. Uh Paul power all the way through, expertise at the depth with the ball. Can you get unbeat? >> Well, you just me I mean I agree they're incredibly strong on paper. Um you did just mention a few injuries. Niggles key players. So that's one thing. I mean let's not forget this team absolutely wrecked the franchise pedigree theory last year. a team that never always underachieved and they just walked away with it. Um so I'm I'm just going to try
50:14 and get them beat and I think we've got with six is a good alternative but you can't really argue with the strength of that squad. Webster is a brilliant signing. I think Richard Hussein saying great signing really cracking signing. Uh they've got and they're in the picture 100% although I'm just not going to make them favorites because of six greater consistency. Uh Rich, um do they just stroll into the final with that lineup? >> I think if they play the best game, they're going to get to the final. They're going to they are going to be very hard to beat. The nagging doubt in the back of my mind if Paul talked about pedigree, but it's also about someone like Mitch Owen and Tim David. They had well Owen in particular had an unbelievable year last year, but whether
51:00 he's a high percentage cricket, I'm not yet sure. whereas you look at the Sixers and and they they're going to just put in that sort of eight out of 10 every week, aren't they? Every game and I just wonder if Owing can back it up and if David's that type of cricketer as well. That's the nagging doubt when you're backing them as favorites. Um but my god, if it clicks 1 to 11 is an extremely strong team. They've got big runs in them particular way from home because they've got so much batting power. >> Any other plays, Paul, for Hobart? Well, look, to me the really interesting thing there is the power in that middle order. It's tremendous. Um, David Owen, Jordan, Jordan the Gracia, Chowry, now Webster as well. Um, so
51:46 certainly late overs in games particularly on suitable grounds. They averaged over seven over seven sixes per game last year which is way way above the Big Bash average. So I suspect it will be priced accordingly but that is the thing to look on Hobart sixes in games or to win those sixes against certain teams >> and Rich. >> Yeah probably similar thing I I am really interested to see the sort of lines with this team though because I do wonder if a layer as a layer if you can get the line high enough and if [snorts] they went somewhere in challenging conditions the sort of players that they have is very all or nothing isn't it? And I do wonder if there's a case. Look, I'm not against them at all, but if it's a case where you might get an extreme
52:33 unders up with this team in the right conditions because their line Paul surely is going to be high because you're going to be frightened stiff of David of Owen and Wade and McDerma and all these hitters. But if someone can get them on a challenging pitch somewhere, maybe maybe a lot. I'm not against them at all. I think you know they're going to go very deep. >> Righty seven bet special offer for you. Bet£10. Get a10 free bet with the promo code WFB10. That's your first deposit of a minimum£10 stake.£10 free bet. Minimum odds even money. Max winnings 100 quid. 5day expiry. Bonus T's and C's apply. It is that time. It is name the winner and name the winner up of the big bash on
53:18 the cricket betting podcast. Richard man. We think we know who you're going to say, but who are they beating? Yeah, Perth Scorches and I'm just going for Hobart Hurricanes to finish one runner up. >> Paul Krishna Merty >> Sydney Sixers to beat Brisbane Heat in the final. >> There you go. There are your picks for the Big Bash. This has been the ultimate betting guide to the Big Bash. We are back in your ears and in on your YouTube screens for a third Ash's test preview podcast. It records Saturday night. It is the ultimate betting guide to the third Ash's test from Adelaide. This has been the cricket betting podcast. Don't
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