0:00 Welcome to the cricket betting podcast. I'm Ed Hawkins. This is the ultimate betting guide to the SAT20. We're brought to you by 7bet.co.uk, a fresh sports betting brand that offers such features as early payout, bet builder, aaboost, betting insights, and more. Go to 7bet.co.uk and experience worldclass betting for yourself. On this episode of the cricket betting podcast, we give you the old one, two, who beats who in the SAT20 final. Let's say hi to Paul Krishna Merti. Hello Paul. >> Hi. >> Richard manportinglife.com is also here potentially excited by this one. Rich, >> I am. I am a good one this one.
0:45 >> Good. Uh, I think this is a good one actually. I'm a fan of the SAT20. No best bets for this one, but we will be giving you winner and runner up in the form of best bets. Just to let you know that the best bets are returning absolutely massive profits. Paul is busting plus 40. Rich is in the plus as well uh with more winners to come at plus 0.29. Um, so we're going to be talking SAT20 with power rankings for each team, the best win rates on the tops market for each teams. We've got possible 11s for you as well. We've got strengths and weaknesses for each team, and the all important ground guide from Paul Christian Merty. Can we marry up strengths of uh teams in terms of
1:31 batting and bowling, strengths or weaknesses with a venue? Uh, so keep pens and paper at the ready. We've got loads of angles uh coming your way, but going to start with an outright from our partners at seven bet. We've got not surprisingly 8 to five favorites. Mumbai Indians Cape Town the champs 225 Sunrise of East and Cape next best who've never not been in a final uh Durban Super Giants at the same price at 22 to5 6 to1 Pritoria 6 to1 Joe 34-5 uh Pal and as I said Mi Cape Town the defending
2:17 champions usual playoff system in place with finishing first or second in the ladder important, but Sunrisers have made uh each of those three finals and they did it twice by finishing third. Um I suspect that trend is not going to continue, but there we go. Rich, as I said at the top of the show, good tournament or is it the same as many T20 leagues around the world these days where we've got a handful of two of good teams uh and the rest are rubbish? Is it cream rising to the top or is it wide open? >> Well, I think last few years it has been cream rising to the top with with sunrises, but we've had a big overall at the latest draft. So, that obviously mixes things up as well. So, um lots to
3:03 learn I think while you're watching this show hopefully or listening. Um last year was tougher for for for going overs on runs but by Criy the year before what a gold mine backing overs. So, um, interested to get Paul's ground guides and just interesting to see how it plays out. It was a brilliant tournament two years ago. >> All right, Paul Richard has set it up for you. This all important ground guide. What your top lines from some of these venues. >> Okay, so I' got four four ankles here. So, first of all, Paul Royals Bowling Park. This is the standout underground. Arguably the standout underground in the world actually, particularly with sixes. Um 75% of matches see 10 or fewer sixes. 69% have nine or fewer sixes. And in
3:48 case you're worried it'd be a new pitch, just look at their team selection. It's all slow bowlers. So expect the same low scores. On the other end of the scale, the overs ground is Centurion, home to Ptoria Capitals. Um this is 62% of first innings coming at 200 plus 29% at 220 plus. So on those numbers 200 should be 8 to3 at the start 220 should be 5-2 and they've gone down because as Rick said it wasn't quite as good last year for batting but it's still a great ground for it. And also for sixes, uh, Centurion ranks top. 43% of matches see 20 or more sixes.
4:34 Next on to the second lowest ground. Again, a long way behind the others. I think three of them are fairly similar, but this is also very much an ground, which is Port Elizabeth, uh, St. George's, um, home to Sunrise Eastern Cape. Only two out of 17 matches here saw 14 or more sixes, so very reliable there. Finally, I mentioned Durban. Now, I've got this ranked second for batting. Last year, it was a bit down and I think that's down overhead conditions as we anyone who knows history of Kings meet Durban knows overhead conditions very important. Um, but still she's a very small ground, good for scoring, reliable 160 plus and great for sixes. So, if it clear 200
5:20 plus all day long there, >> right, lovely stuff. Those your your ground guys from Paul Krishna Mercy. So SAT20 starts Boxing Day. Um we're going to start going through some of the teams and we're going to be doing it in reverse price order. So Outsiders first and moving forward to the favorites. So it's Par Royals off first. 3 to1 to finish bottom with seven bet. Uh 14 to five for the final last two seasons finishing third and fourth. They are ranked number three on batting power for the last two years. So that's cumulative strike rate and fourth on bowling economy. Your top bats and top bowler to follow. And we've got some decent study samples for these boys. Miller 20%.
6:05 That's a good return rate for someone who's going to not be who's going to be going off in advance of 4 to1. And Mujiban the spin bowler got a 50% win rate on top bowler. expecting to be playing maj wickets at some point during this series. You possible 11 for this side is our home and learn dretorious Lawrence Miller Raza Carl Varian Moti Mjie Fortin Bill and Bartman. Bartman a great signing from SEC. Aim as Paul said is a strangle in lowcoring games with spin bowlers got three in that team. Uh Lawrence may even bowl a bit. Uh I think they won all home games last season. Uh Paul,
6:53 what do you reckon? >> Well, the obvious angle here is to back them for the home games and oppose them away from home cuz their ground is set up to suit that barrage of slow bowling, but they haven't got so much away. I do think they're a bit underestimated to be honest. I wouldn't have as the outsiders of seven. Um there's you know there's a lot of decent allrounder type players in there. Um moti good moti cender kind of raza very dangerous level. Carl Marine's a good pickup. Um and Landre Ptorius was outstanding last year. So I don't really have them as one of the favorites but they were second last year. I don't think they deserve to be the outsiders at all.
7:38 >> Just a point point about Bartman. uh 28% win rate uh last two years. Um probably one to bet away from home for Paul uh just because the dominance of spin bowls there. Rich, what are your views on these boys? >> Well, what I would say is they had Joe Root last year and he did a fantastic job for them. Um I know it seems awkward to say that in T20, but low scoring games he he he did marshall that batting well. um that would be a concern. I'm really Paul's right about low runs, but it was amazing as well how many times between 140 and 150 three of the five home games last year it was it was 150.
8:25 Well, actually I think it was more like 141 142. Um so in terms of it I don't know Paul in terms of trying to get that 140 line on side I think you can really strike gold with that. I do remember you giving me a bit of a lesson on this ball over a few beers at the snooker, but but 140 is the LA is the nugget spot I think on this ground. Um, other interesting things, uh, moti and fortune as well, top bat bets. I think there'll be big prices down the order. I don't know if you Sorry. Yeah, go. >> So, no, you're right. The middle 140 to 160, right? If you can get that at about 3 to one at the start of the innings, that's a really good starting place because you aren't going to see many go over 160.
9:10 >> Yeah. >> All right, we've got next best six to1 Ptoria to win it with seven bet 5 to2 for a final spot 16 to five to finish bottom fifth last season, fifth the priest previous season. Batting power fourth, bowling economy sixth. They need to do some squad rebuilding. Uh Jax has come back. You can see when he does turn up, obviously he's not going to be there for the start of the tournament. 16.6% win rate on top. That's your top rated guy. Um Lizad Williams on top bowler winning 50% of the time, but that's only from eight games. possible 11 Jacks, Will Sme, Esther Hazen, Brevis, the big money
9:57 signing, uh William Noob, Bryce Parsons, might start gone a little bit wrong there in that middle order. Those guys don't have great records. Andre Russell's being brought in. Craig Overson, Kisha Maharaj, Williams, as I mentioned, an and Giddi, there's a big overhaul of this team. Uh Rich, have they got it right? Uh, I quite like them, but I would worry whether the bowling will hold up. I think we'll get runs. Um, you've been really impressed with Jackson in the Ashes, but coming here as well, hopefully he'll have some confidence. But Brevis, I mean, Brevis, what a year he's had. Um, I'm not sure about the batting depth, but I think if Brevis and Jax just get in together and and Sme as well, who who always scores quickly, I think they could get big runs this team
10:43 in in the right conditions. Just need the ball in to hold up. I think they can cause some damage. >> Paul, right price or wrong price? >> Probably about right to be honest. Um, quick question. How many overseas players can you have in the side here? >> Pretty sure it's four. Pretty sure it's four. It was four last time. >> So, it has just struck me how reliant they are because, um, okay, you got Will Jack's critical to their chance. Sme also important. Um you've also got um Chafane Rutherford in this side in this squad and Russell can they play them all? Overton as well. Um those batsman just mentioned are ripe to take advantage of this very very high scoring ground. Um
11:31 but I think there are there are stronger sides than this to be honest with you. Um they're either the outsiders for me or second from last. >> Great. That's two down for the to go. A remind us to sign up please to our partners seven bet. They do make this podcast happen every week. So if you like the cricket betting podcast too uh please support us and get signed up with seven uh with seven bet. We've got the 0% margin feature over there designed to offer betting odds that don't include the typical margin added by the bookmaker. Check out more of their features on 7bet.co.uk features. another offer as well from seven bet before the end of this show. Um also six to1 with seven bet are Joeberg super kings 16 to5 to finish
12:17 bottom with the same five to two for the final fourth and third last two season two fives on batting power and bowling economy. So presumably plenty of work to do in terms of squad rebuilding. Uh and they certainly done some major churn with only four players remaining from last term. One of those is Duplexi. 19% win rate on top bat last two years and ran to here 21%. Uh the original members of that dad's army are still there. They could line up something like this. So FAF opening a battle with Brandon King, James Vince, Riley Rouso, Le Van Moulder, Donovan Ferrera, Sriraan, Akquil Hussein, Dan Warl, Nandre Burger, and Tahia Paul. I'm not
13:05 at all fussed by that top order. What about you? >> No, I'm not. Um, FAF is surely in decline slowly if nothing else. Riley Rouso has been in decline for a couple of years. Uh, but the bigger picture here is the churn. I mean, that's not ideal to have only four players from last term there. There are some decent signings out. I mean Van Ma Vince uh Subraan I think could be quite a weapon in this RE toppley also um at that ground but it's a lot of churn a lot of losses so I can't have them >> rich can you have them >> captain don't panic captain manine >> couldn't even couldn't even deliver that right could I um not for me batting
13:52 would concern me um in terms of betting be very interested to see where molder bats Um, I suspect you're right. He'll start at five, but if the top order struggles, I would I'd like to see him up up higher. I think he's a really classy player. But the bowling, I do think it's got plenty going for it. Warl will nip the ball about. Burger, excellent with a new ball. I think in the right conditions, it could ball teams out cheaply in terms of betting runs, going short on there. They've got two very, well, three very good spinners actually. Um, look out for Burger when he comes up against left-handers. We did a thing on a podcast a few weeks ago. made some good money on the VIP channel. Burger up against the lefties with a new ball. He's got a terrific record. >> I bet we bet Akquila Sain at some point as well at massive numbers on VIP. >> Um
14:38 >> uh so that's Joe Bird done. Three down, three to go. Remember, we named the winner of the SAT20 and the team that they beat in the final at the end of this show. Uh so stick around. Don't forget to sub up to that VIP Telegram channel where Paul, Rich, and myself will provide the best bets every day to your phone or device via Telegram. It's in plays every televised game. We're up on ROI. We're up on profit. It's ILt20 Big Bash. We'll be adding SAT20 in there. The Fourth Ashes Test podcast is also out for your ears. So, give that one a listen. Loads happening at the moment in cricket. It never ever stops. And let's continue with Durban Super Giants 22 to five with seven bet to win
15:26 it, which is basically 9-2. Uh 9 to four final four to finish bottom sixth and then runners up spot batting power they ranked number two and they are third on bowling economy. So they've got a good base to work with. They've signed Jos Butler who wins 44% of the time last two years. Nor Ahmed wins 40% of the time. Top bowler last two years. Terrific hit rates. Would like Nor Armed to turn up pretty quickly from ILT 20 please. They're possible 11. Butler Mark from the new signing. Dorsey Clen Bingham Vitza Milani Narin Kutzer Nure and Matt Hacker. I quite like this lot Rich.
16:12 >> Yeah, I'm I'm very very keen actually. Yeah, I think the the batting looks superb. Butler still the boss, isn't he? We've we've seen it recently in 100. Markhamm, brilliant signing. He's been the boss of this competition if you like. Classen's the king finisher. Uh and a nice little mix with Bettingham and Dari as well. We got guys who might just work it around and get those lads on strike. Uh and high class spin. One area of weakness. Have they got enough quality seam in there? Um, sing bowling might be an issue but overall it looks a very good team. >> Paul concur. >> Hard agree. Totally agree. I think they this is really strong. Um, you know the the player the stars that have left were
16:57 failing. Right. So there's massive improvement. You look at that 11 you've just picked there. That's a team within nationals. the South Africa team plus arguably the best T20 batsman in the world in Josh Butler plus arguably the most valuable T20 bowler in the world, Nor Armad plus Sunil Ryan. Right. Um that's a hell of a team. Really good. Um to me they're the standout value in this competition at 22 to 5 with seven bet. >> Can I just go on Rich? Yeah. Well, I just we've talked about Jos Butler's player performance a lot, but I thought in this team it was even more interesting because assuming he's going to keep um with those spinners, I mean the stumpings are in the game all the time are out there. So, I mean
17:43 >> he not only could he bust the line, he could seriously bust the line in the odd game because I think >> he's going to be up to the stumps a lot here. >> Yeah. Do keep listening. We might not name Durban as the winner. You never know uh because we've got two more teams to do and it is the SEC Sunrises Eastern Cape same price as Dur 22 to five 19 to 10 with seven bet for another final sevens with the same to finish bottom runners up and champions um they've made all three finals. batting power is number six and I'm not unusually in franchise cricket you build a legacy on bowling economy and they are number one on your last two years Britka comes in with a 20% win rate I think you
18:31 might just get the other side of 4 to1 Jansen top dollar 21% uh I don't think you're going to get more than fours possible 11 for you Jay Herman um waiting for best to come in from ILt20. So Bessa may take his place. So Dock opening the batting with one of those two. Stubs Brits Van Buren Yansen Gregory or James Coohl's perhaps in the all rounder slot down there. Ma Sammy Sameler Gas and Far uh the spin bowler mystery spin and Noria. They've lost Bartman and Mark major losses. Churn major five remain. So are they actually uh the team that built a legacy? Um, I'll say no. Uh, Paul, can we get them
19:18 beat? >> Yes, we can. Definitely. Um, it's not the same team. I mean, it's a good side on paper. It could come good. There's a lot of churn. Those two losses are huge. And, you know, I mean, look, the strongest argument we always use in these competitions is franchise pedigree, right? Does that apply when you've only got five of the previous team? I don't think it does. They're contenders. They're capable. They've certainly got good players there, but not for me. >> Uh Richard, what about you? I mean, what about that price to finish bottom 7 to1? >> Yeah, you know what? That what might be more interesting. Uh bowling's hugely
20:04 hugely weakened. Uh you know, Nokia comes in. I'm a big fan, but shocking injury record of late as well. Um, so not for me. I mean, Bretska obviously very consistent. I'll be interested to see his price in the top bat, but I'd be more interested in shorting bestow those runs game by game. He'll come off once every four or five games and beat the line. That's fine. It'll be easy, but I think he'll fail more more time than he succeeds. He only had to look at his time for Yorkshire last year in the blast. Barely made a run. Made a brilliant 100 on TV in the Roses game, then went back to barely making a run again. Um so he's one to just consistently show Besto. >> All right. Uh concur on Besto. Uh the champions last season were Mumbai
20:49 Indians Cape Town uh 8 to5 win seven bet it 53 to 104 the final. They're 16 to1 to finish bottom which they've actually done twice out of the three seasons. Uh batting power number one bowling economy number two. Rickleton. Paul's always been a massive fan of Rickleton way before we had this sort of win rate. By the way, 44% on top bat in this tournament. Rabada 27.7 with the ball. Rabarda likely to be cheap on player performance. Early doors. Rickleton Vanderen Hrix Pan Karim Janet or Moors in the engine room. Corbyn Bosch Ptorius that's Dwayne Ptorius Rashid George Lindra Bol is some team uh Durban have
21:38 got to beat Mumbai you can't argue with favorite status rich >> no they this is just a very very good team isn't it um yeah forget the prices and trying to search for value these are team to beat out the bowling absolutely ridiculous ball Rashid I mean just just amazing All I would say slight negative Pu ran in for not a negative but Puran comes in for Brevis and and look that that should be absolutely fine shouldn't it but Brevis was outstanding last year um what did he strike at 184 nearly 300 runs at a strike rate of 184 big shoes to fill there and the issue is if Puran doesn't fire got RVD striking at 129
22:23 last year Hrix 128 that could catch him out they do need someone to add the firework works. Um, but clearly clearly the bowling in particular is very good. Look out for a bowl first wicket in the over. We've covered this loads of times. I won't labor the point, but he's generally very good at that. 365 often price it up. Wicket in the first over. Usually 56 to one. Amazing how many times it pays off when Trent Bolt's taking that first over. >> Uh Paul, what do you got? >> Look, it's all about odds, isn't it? what we do. It's all about numbers. They're definitely the rightful favorites. They were superb last year, but I can take them on a 13-8 because in the end, if they don't finish top two, then they're I have six to1 chances and
23:10 that can easily happen. Um, if you really wanted to look for a negative, I suppose you could say that Reza Hendris wasn't in great form recently. Rashi Car's probably on the downgrade but he is a brilliant side and I mean that said Corbyn Bosch has really taken a step forward in last year hasn't he? So they are rather favorous but not those odds for me. All righty. Uh it is well it's not best bets time but it is time to name the winner of the SAT20 and the runner up. Um, just time to tell you about our seven bet free offer using the promo code code WFB10.
23:57 As I trailed earlier in the show, you bet£10, get a10 free bet on your first deposit, minimum£10 stake, 10 pound free bet, minimum odds, even money, maximum winnings 100 quid, bonus T's and C's apply. Do support seven bet and therefore support the cricket betting podcast because they help this podcast be recorded every single week. So, Paul, can you please name the SAT20 runner up? And who are they going to beat in the final? >> I'm going for Durban Super Giants to beat MI Town in the final. >> Okay. Paul's gone for Durban Super Giants beating MI Cape Town in the
24:44 final. Uh, Richard, man, what have you got? I'll go the other way around. M I kept town to beat Debban Super Giants in the final. >> Lovely stuff. This has been the cricket betting podcast in association with seven bet. As I said earlier in the show, we do have a uh Ash's fourth test podcast out as well. So give that one a listen please. We're going to tell you exactly what happens in the fourth test. Um just time to tell you uh seven bet specials on name the finalists on those um selections which Paul and Richard just gave you. Durban super giants versus mi Cape Town 27 to5 with uh seven
25:31 bet. Uh so get signed up to seven bet. Support the podcast and you may well as well have a winner there on the way when this tournament ends. This has been the ultimate betting guide to the SAT20. We will see you next time for the fifth Ashes test preview.
