Are Europe and Russia Already at WAR?

0:00 Is Europe already at war with Russia? Many Europeans today feel that the continent is drifting ever closer to conflict with Russia. Rising defence budgets, warnings from intelligence agencies, and increasingly hostile rhetoric all suggest a dangerous drift towards a full-scale confrontation. However, some observers are going further. They argue that Europe and Russia are not heading towards war. In their view, the war has already started. It simply doesn't look like wars from the past. So, which is it? Are Europe and Russia preparing for a future confrontation? Or are they already locked in conflict? Hello and welcome.

0:45 I'm James Ker-Lindsay, and here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, and security. When we think about war, we usually imagine direct and overt military confrontation between countries. Even when there isn't a formal declaration of war, as is usually the case these days, the defining feature has remained the open use of armed force. War, in this classic sense, is direct and unmistakable. However, this narrow definition is increasingly open to question. Warfare today can also include proxy conflicts and hybrid methods such as cyberattacks, disinformation, and even political interference. These tools may not resemble conventional battlefields,

1:33 but they can still fundamentally destabilise societies and cause considerable destruction. The question of what we define as war has been thrown into the spotlight following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As the conflict has continued, tensions between Russia and Europe have steadily grown. But while many warn that the two sides could be heading towards a direct confrontation of their own, some are now suggesting that the war is already underway. But is this really the case? Traditionally, we think of the term as a direct military confrontation between opponents. However, other forms of conflict also exist. Specifically, we can think of proxy and hybrid wars.

2:21 Proxy wars refer to situations in which outside actors support one or both sides in a conflict. Instead of engaging in open confrontation, they arm, fund, and advise local actors. This approach allows major powers to pursue strategic objectives while limiting the risks of escalation and direct casualties. Secondly, we have hybrid warfare, which refers to a blend of military and non-military tools designed to achieve political objectives while staying below the threshold of conventional war. This can involve a whole range of tactics, ranging from cyberattacks on infrastructure through to efforts to manipulate elections, spreading disinformation in an effort to divide societies, weaponising migration

3:10 flows, damaging energy supplies, and conducting covert sabotage operations. Ultimately, hybrid tactics aim to create confusion and ambiguity. Crucially, while all this can cause huge damage, it's often difficult for the target state to respond decisively, either because the aggression is deniable or falls short of a clear act of war. In practice, though, proxy and hybrid strategies often overlap. A state may simultaneously back a proxy on the battlefield while conducting cyber operations and disinformation campaigns against its adversary. However, in both cases, the goal is cumulative pressure. Like traditional warfare, they're ultimately intended to weaken or defeat an enemy.

4:00 But instead of overt armed engagement, which can cause massive civilian and military casualties and lead to dangerous escalations, there's a sustained campaign of attrition, disruption, and destabilisation. And it's with this framework in mind that it becomes easier to see why some now argue that Europe and Russia are already involved in warlike activities. To understand where things stand today, it's worth taking a step back. Following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was considerable optimism that Russia and Europe could become close partners. As economic ties deepened and energy interdependence grew, the two sides began to deepen their political relationship.

4:46 Indeed, some even believe that Russia, like other former Soviet republics and former Soviet satellite states of Eastern Europe, could eventually become more closely integrated with the European Union and perhaps even NATO. But even during the 1990s, tensions were present. NATO enlargement was viewed with growing suspicion in Moscow. Meanwhile, Western interventions in the Balkans further strained relations. However, the critical change came after the turn of the millennium, as Vladimir Putin consolidated his power during the start of the 2000s. Russia began to reassert itself more forcefully on the international stage. The 2008 war in Georgia marked a turning point.

5:33 It signalled that Moscow was willing to use military force to prevent the further Western integration of its neighbouring states. However, the ultimate rupture came in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in eastern Ukraine. As Europe responded with sanctions and Russia introduced countersanctions and intensified its anti-Western rhetoric, all this steadily eroded what little trust was left. Indeed, by the time Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, relations had all but collapsed. In this sense, the Russian invasion of Ukraine didn't create the confrontation. Instead, it dramatically escalated it.

6:19 Since then, the situation has deteriorated rapidly. Europe's response to the Russian invasion has been unprecedented in scale. The European Union has imposed sweeping economic sanctions on Russia, targeting financial institutions, energy exports, technology transfers, and even individuals. All the while, European governments have provided Ukraine with advanced weaponry, including missile systems. They've also trained Ukrainian soldiers and shared intelligence. On top of this, billions of euros have flowed to sustain Ukraine's economy and its war effort. Given that all this has dramatically helped Kyiv fight off the Russian attack, from Moscow's perspective this looks very much like Europe's participation in the conflict.

7:08 Indeed, Russian officials have repeatedly described Western states as co-belligerents, arguing that while European troops may not be on the front lines, European weapons are killing Russian soldiers. But at the same time, Russia has certainly not been the passive party. European governments and security services have repeatedly accused Moscow of carrying out cyberattacks against infrastructure, government institutions, and private companies across the continent. At the same time, disinformation campaigns have sought to exploit divisions within European societies, particularly around issues such as energy prices, migration, and support for Ukraine. To add to all this, there have also been allegations of sabotage,

7:57 including suspicious incidents affecting undersea cables, rail networks, and energy facilities. Taken individually, none of these actions amounts to a conventional act of war. But when considered altogether, they paint a picture of sustained hostility that extends well beyond the battlefields of eastern Ukraine. But does it in fact amount to war? Those who argue that Europe and Russia are already at war point to several factors. First, they stress the important proxy dimension. Europe is clearly arming and financing Ukraine in its war against Russia. The level of involvement is far greater than symbolic political support.

8:42 European states are deeply embedded in Ukraine's defence effort. Historically, such extensive backing would often have been interpreted as participation in the conflict. Secondly, they highlight the intensity and persistence of Russian hybrid activities directed towards Europe. Cyber operations, espionage, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns are not isolated incidents. They form part of a sustained campaign. If war is understood as organised political violence and coercion between states, then these activities certainly fit within a broadened definition of war. The fact that they don't involve tanks crossing borders doesn't necessarily make them any less strategic.

9:29 Thirdly, they argue that the wider context and the specific intent matter. Russian rhetoric increasingly portrays Europe as an adversary. Meanwhile, European leaders describe Russia as a direct threat to continental security. When both sides engage in sustained hostile activity and treat each other as enemies, there's a strong case to be made that they are already at war, even if it hasn't yet led to direct military confrontation. Balanced against this, though, many would argue that as serious as the situation is, it still isn't a war. Crucially, there's still no direct sustained military confrontation between Russian and European armed forces. NATO troops are not fighting Russian troops.

10:17 The fighting remains confined to Ukraine. Secondly, the use of sanctions, arms transfers, and cyber operations doesn't automatically equate to war. Throughout history, countries have engaged in intense rivalry, economic coercion, and proxy support without considering themselves to be at war. The Cold War is the obvious example. The United States and the Soviet Union faced off globally for decades. They armed opposing sides, engaged in espionage and propaganda, and prepared for potential conflict. And yet they avoided a direct war. This distinction mattered because it shaped rules of engagement and escalation control. Indeed, one can argue that European governments have deliberately

11:05 calibrated their support to Ukraine in order to prevent triggering a direct confrontation. This suggests that Europe recognises a line that it doesn't want to cross. Ultimately, whether Europe is already at war with Russia depends on how we define war. If we adopt a narrow traditional definition centred on open military confrontation, then the answer is clearly no. Europe isn't at war with Russia. It's supporting a partner that is at war. However, if we adopt a broader definition that includes proxy conflict and sustained hybrid aggression, then the picture becomes more ambiguous. Europe is deeply involved in the war against Russia through its support for Ukraine.

11:52 Likewise, Russia is also conducting hostile operations against European states. In that sense, critical elements of war are already present. The longer the war in Ukraine continues and the more intense the mutual hostility becomes, the greater the risk that indirect confrontation could slide into direct conflict. Miscalculation accident, or deliberate escalation could change the nature of the relationship very quickly. For now, though, Europe and Russia remain in a dangerous grey zone. While they may not be in a full-scale militarised war, they are far from being at peace. I hope you found that useful. If so, here are some more videos that you might find interesting.

12:38 Thanks so much for watching, and see you in the next video.