BJP vs Congress: Is Rahul Gandhi Strong Enough to Win in 2026? Ft Thushar Gupta Podcast

0:00 Even today there is no state in India where Rahul Gandhi can go and win an election for his party. He is not saying that we'll work harder people of India. He's saying directly addressing the prime minister will defeat you in Gujarat. A couple of authors I know who written books on the 2024 elections they credited Dhuvati that probably he has a role in bringing down the BJP from 300 to 240 and I asked him a very simple question. We tend to overestimate our importance on social media and we tend to underestimate the size of our electorate on the because you have a mic and a camera and a million followers. Do you get to define morality? It's at the end of the day you and I are equal on the voting booth. You have one vote, I have one vote. >> Doesn't a university which is heavily subsidized owe the public to be more

0:46 neutral? >> What is the point of campus? There are scores and scores of private universities in every state. No such nonsense. >> Great to have you on the show. >> Thank you Jan. >> Let's start with examining the grand old party, the Congress party. What do you think is the core crisis of Congress party? >> The core crisis they are not addressing the elephant in the room. Mhm. >> I have spoken to so many people and after every election the same argument comes up. Why is Congress losing this election? What what went wrong? After 20 years in active politics and I speak of Rahul Gandhi here, 22 years almost because he was first an MP in 2004.

1:32 >> We have to understand that even today there is no state in India where Rahul Gandhi can go and win an election for his party at a state level. Forget national. Can he go to Telangana and win an election for his party? very very difficult because Raven Freddy won that can he go to Himachel and do it no the party unit wins it there plus it's a swing state in Rajasthan it was always a shogot in Madhya Pradesh whenever it was for campaigning it was Kamill so first reason I think Rahul Gandhi even after 20 years cannot define a region which can loyally back him point number one point number two there is no resonance for Rahul Gandhi I have said this time and again that there is a core voter of the Congress given it's the grand old party but Now you have a younger population, a more dynamic population, a population that probably thinks very

2:18 differently from the population that used to vote in the 70s, 80s and '90s. They do not find any resonance with Rahul Gandhi's ideas. And you see Rahul Gandhi often trying too hard. He sometimes picks up the EV car and its battery. Sometimes he picks up a Chinese drone. Sometimes he'll talk about martial arts. But that's not how you connect with the population, the younger population. At least that's what the results tell us. So that's number two. Number three, somewhere between the top leadership of the Congress and the Kak Karta on the ground, the last mile Kakarta who handles the booth during the election, I don't think there is any communication today. If you talk to a booth agent in the BJP or even an Amadi party booth level agent saying Delhi or in Punjab, they still understand what

3:05 Arvin Kjal or what Narendra wants out of them at their respective level. >> Can you say the same about a Congress Karika? Absolutely not. So there is no resonance between the Karak Karta and Rahul Gandhi. But the buck at the end of the day stops with Rahul Gandhi. He is the face of the Congress. You can say Malika Arjun Kh is the president and you know there is a whole working committee and CWG and all those things you can you know keep throwing around those phrases high command but the buck at the end of the day stops with Rahul Gandhi and people do not connect with him. Now it's unfortunate if you look at it for Rahul Gandhi but the country 2024 I think was a good opportunity for Rahul Gandhi to capitalize on >> he won 99 seats beyond expectations even

3:52 though it's the third worst tally for the Congress party since you know the elections began in the republic and then he comes to the parliament and what people see is not a man who's humbled or a man who realizes he has an opportunity or a foot in the door they see an arrogant angry man. >> They see a man who's mocking the BJP because of their loss in Aayodha Fairzabad. >> People can see through that. >> People can see through that. He is not saying that we'll work harder to understand the aspirations of the people of India. He's saying directly addressing the prime minister, we'll defeat you in Gujarat. >> There are tons of state elections in between. But he's already thinking about December 2027 in July 2024. People see through that anger, that arrogance. >> Yes. Somewhere the Congress also forgot that 99 seats wasn't a victory and 240

4:38 wasn't a defeat for the BJP. In the early days post election a lot of people started ridiculing the BJP and then someone actually told them I think it was the prime minister on the floor of the parliament who said that the last time you got 240 seats in the Lok Sabha was 40 years ago 1984. In 1991 also they got 232 and then the Punjab elections were held later and that is how their tally actually crossed 240. But to get 240 has been a dream for the Congress for the last 40 years and we don't know if they'll hit that tally in 2029 because in 2004 and 2009 when they had those governments their tally was at best 209 in 2009 >> maybe in the next 40 years. >> So so that is where the problem is if you are going to be a national leader Narendra Modi can go to Gujarat even today and say this is the state that

5:23 backs me. I come from here. A regional leader in the Congress say DK of Kumar a Raven they can do that. Kamill Nat could at least claim that in Madhya Pradesh a shelled could claim that in Rajasthan what can Rahul Gandhi do and that was visible that was visible when the question of 2024 Lok Sabha elections came up. you remember why not and then he wanted to contest from another seat if I remember correctly and there was this conflict will it be Ryeli will it be a matei because a mate had that whole smitty vision going on and at that time no one could really predict how the turnout would be but you could see even until the morning of the nominations being filed Rahul Gandhi and his entire team were not very public about their preference eventually it went to Ryberelli ward went to Priyanka Gandhi but that tells you that even after 20

6:10 years in active politics with the kind of legacy his family has. If you cannot stand in a state and say I'll win this for my party. I'll focus on the 20 30 40 odd seats here, what can you really do? People say Bharat Cho Yatra is a big success. We saw this in 2012. Rahul Gandhi's big launch to the national level was supposed to be the Uttar Pradesh elections of 2012. We saw Rahul Gandhi going to the families of you know people in villages eating there trying to make a point based on cast. People rejected that. 2017 again people rejected that. 2022 rejected that. in between UPK doul the alliances with samajwadi party nothing really clicked in Uttar Pradesh in Bihar you had

6:56 another yatra and people are complaining that we saw a bus going around and there was Rahul Gandhi who was visibly occupied on his cell phone >> so people see through all this right and somehow within the congress the commentators who backed the congress the party loyalist however you want to you know term them they do not want to acknowledge this fact that Rahul Gandhi has absolutely no resonance with enough threshold of voters in India who can put him in the government >> but as you said humility as a trait is one of the biggest factor why and whom people do vote which doesn't come across in Rahul Gandhi's speeches the way he behaves in the parliament so that that is one of very important factor when it comes to how we see a leader

7:42 >> see Rahul Gandhi even with the legacy of his family has to understand that the post of the prime minister has to be earned >> and respected at the same time. >> Respected at the same time. The office of the prime minister, he may have his disagreements with Narendra Modi, the individual, the party worker, the BJP leader. He cannot take it out or vent it out against the office of the prime minister. I'll give you an example. A few days ago, Rahul Gandhi stands up in the Lok Sabha and decides to selectively quote from an article which itself selectively quotes from a book which is not published. The author has claimed so that the book has not been published. the publisher of the episodes. Now this is the interesting one. He says that the prime minister and the defense minister abdicated their responsibility when it came to operations on the LAC. The word

8:28 he was trying to use abdicated. >> Now interestingly the article the excerpt of the book it was quoting the word abdicate wasn't there. >> Mhm. >> It wasn't there. The author of that article drew the conclusion from the excerpt that because the prime minister or the office of the prime minister or the defense minister said this to the general so they were abdicating their responsibility. Now this was the author's conclusion. This wasn't a part of the excerpt. Author's conclusion becomes Rahul Gandhi's conclusion inside the parliament. But Rahul Gandhi sells it as the opinion of the general who's written that book. >> You see how manipulation is working on the floor of the parliament. Is it is it smart manipulation or is it dumb? >> It's dishonesty. It's fraud. >> Mhm. >> It was a 40page article. It's a 400page

9:15 book. You pick up one word from that article and you choose to pick up a word that has been specifically used for manipulation. That's fraud. Now, this is a prime minister who only less than a year ago bombed a nuclear neighbor from Scardo to Karachi. You think he'll abdicate his responsibility? you know, even if you have your disagreements with the BJP or the government or you do not like the prime minister or you do not vote for him also that's that's irrelevant to this discussion. My simple point is this is a prime minister who's saying that I'm going to bomb a nuclear neighbor, a volatile nuclear neighbor, a impulsive nuclear neighbor and you think on the operations on the LC he would abdicate his responsibility. Now Rahul Gandhi also needs to understand this is

10:00 the age of internet. People do their checks you know with AI programs with cheap internet with social media every piece of information every piece of literature is so easily accessible and people did their checks and people pointed out that the word abdicate that you've used for the prime minister and the defense minister that's not a part of the excerpt being quoted from an unpublished book. You are making that up because the author made that part up. >> This is fraud. This is not expected from the leader of an opposition but that is what Rahul Gandhi does. >> Yes. But that has been Congress uh strategy manipulation misinformation. Uh anyway you seen since >> probably that explains why since the emergency social media Congress is really having a hard time. They tried the manipulation with the AI videos.

10:47 They tried manipulating with whole narend surrender kind of nonsense during operation sudhur. People don't like that. Mhm. >> I remember a time when Manm Singh was a prime minister. I was in school and there was one instance where Navas Sharif I think referred to the prime minister Prime Minister Manhan Singh that is in a very derogatory manner and at that time Narendra Modi the chief minister of Gujarat was campaigning for the 2014 elections >> and he I think he was campaigning in Gujarat when he made that speech. He said this is the border of Pakistan some few hundred kilometers away and I want to tell this to them that you cannot address the prime minister of India in this manner. >> Mhm. >> That was us you know back in 2004 to 20134 we understood Manm Singh the prime minister had a lot of faults. The

11:33 government of the day had a lot of faults. But when it came to Manmahan Singh going up against Pakistan we were always backing a prime minister a government. It was never a question of questioning a prime minister's you know integrity. Maybe his intent. Yes. >> But not his integrity. >> Yeah. >> At least on the security front. Intent I would still be very specific. We all question his intent because what happened after Mumbai? That's it. That's a separate discussion. But today what you're seeing with the Congress is operation Synindur is happening. We don't believe this. We don't believe the hits have happened. Surgical strikes happened. We need evidence. >> Balacode strikes have happened. We need evidence. Another example I give you Rahul Gandhi from the the article he was quoting from it said that the Balakot strikes were a failure. That's why I'm

12:18 saying it was a 40page article and one sentence one claim made there is Rahul Gandhi the leader of opposition validating an author who says the Balot strikes were a failure. >> Yeah. >> Because these things go on record. This is not some this is not a campaign speech. This is not something said in public that will just go away with the next news cycle. These things remain on record 40, 50, 100 years later. Scholars children analysts historians, they will look back at these discussions and this is the question they'll ask and that is where you know Rahul Gandhi's entire strategy is backfiring. >> So what is this rot inside the party or its system itself that it doesn't elevate eligible or capable leaders within the Congress party? My understanding is that it's Rahul Gandhi

13:04 >> who believes that the prime minister within the Congress if it comes from the Congress has to come from the family. >> That is where the problem is. >> So there is no opposition to this idea within the party. >> We wouldn't see it. >> Mhm. >> We do see some people saying that the party needs a change. Eventually those people are out of the party. >> I recall a spokesperson who made some constructive criticism before the party. I think before the 2019 or 20 17 elections he's no longer a member of the party. It's not about the rot, it's about the stubbornness. >> It's not like the karaka of the congress doesn't want to work. We tend to, you know, this is what the congress also does. Interestingly, the media also, you know, does oh the kakaras of the congress are not working hard. The slate leadership is not working hard enough. The district leadership is not working

13:50 hard enough. Again people when they're looking at the Congress they're also looking at Rahul Gandhi and Prianka Gandhi and they're not impressed. >> The central leadership >> the central leadership when people look at BJP they're looking at Narendra Modi. Now I'm not saying >> people are voting because 100% everything is fine and 100% everything is wrong with the Congress. People do their own calculations. >> You might vote for the Congress or the BJP thinking 80% 20% that this 80% is good enough for me. to 20% I'm willing to let go because the other side has something far less to offer. I as a voter might think that okay this is a competition of 55 45 net positive for me is just 10% here but I will go with that. You know people do their own thing pros and cons they all >> the pros and cons are very subjective for a vote. You and I sitting in a

14:36 studio or the national studio a television debate we cannot decide what voters make an issue of but since you question the rot part within the congress I think it's their inability >> to acknowledge they understand this but to acknowledge that people do not have that resonance at all. In that case do you think uh we are heading towards a one party domination for the next few decades. >> See again how you define one party domination is also very very important. A lot of analysts now say it's not free and fair elections because BJP is winning. The BJP is winning the seats. Yes. And that is why they win an election they form the G. But on the ground the vure of those parties is not non-existent. It's not like if the BJP wins Gujarat 20 odd years on the trot there are no voters of the Congress there. In Madhya Pradesh also the

15:22 Congress was always between 38 to 42%. This time it came down to 40 and the BJP leapt to 48 and that the difference was quite huge in 2023 >> but the voters of the Congress are still there. The voters of the regional parties are still there. >> So it's not one party dominance on the ground when it comes to voters but yes when it comes to results it's one party dominance because the party is working. Now you have a party here that's conducting the government rather is conducting an AI summit. You have a party sending in semi- naked protesters there and then claiming it proudly. >> You spoke about humility to me. The party is not humble enough to understand that this is not what the people want. And I wrote about this yesterday. I said the most heartening sight out of Bharat Mandapam was not the police force, not the delegates, not any visitor kicking

16:10 out those protesters. it was a housekeeping staff member visible in uniform taking his cleaning cloth probably and slapping it on the face of one of the protesters and then he kicks him up. This is a housekeeping staff member. His takeaway in a single year is less than what delegates make in an hour >> and yet somehow he's invested in that summit. He's invested in the India growth story. We don't know what his motivation is. We don't know why he felt agitated with the protesters being there. We don't know his story. We probably never will. But those visuals tells you a story. But what does the Congress say? They they don't have that understanding to say okay look we are sorry Congress youth unit needs to introspect. No. Oh but Gandhi also used to do a short list protest. This is what they're running on social media that oh

16:55 Gandhi was also short list. Now this tells you somewhere that the Congress has lost its connect with the people. Probably they are the new communists. Also a lot of people say that it's one party dominance. So where is the opposition? The responsibility of having a healthy opposition is not of the BJP or the government. It is not >> it's not not at a national level, not at a state level. Let's be very clear about it. If in a state let's say Punjab where the BJP is not that big a player. If Congress reduces itself to position that gives the Amadi party or the Akalis a free run. >> Now that's not a problem of the Amadi or the Akalis. If in Rajasthan between ghel and pilot the feud continues and it gives BJP a free run and it makes it a fortress from a swing state that's not a BJP problem. Every party is there to

17:42 win. Every candidate is there to win. So this one party dominance how much of it is to do with the policies of the BJP and how much of it has to do with the incapacity of the Congress that also needs to be quantified in some manner and that quantification will also differ from region to region district to district seat to seat. So that's a that's a very uh you know elaborate discussion to have. >> So can any other leader uh replicate the Modi central command structure style leadership? See central command it's too early to say because uh you know the prime minister has been here for 12 years almost 12 years he has a certain way of working so you cannot really compare at this point because there's no contemporary to him >> but if you ask me yes there are contenders you know at a state level

18:29 right now who might be very relevant in the 2030s >> but do I see anyone from the congress unfortunately I do not >> and I'm not talking only about the chief ministers I'm also talking about the aspirants people who might not be chief ministers, people who might not even be MLAs right now from any party. >> Can anyone be a contemporary to Narendra Modi in the future or rather you know successor to Narendra Modi's kind of politics in the future for the country? I don't see anyone from the Congress at least not even from the regional parties. I don't right now I don't >> I see a couple or rather three or four leaders from the BJP. Yes, but no one from the Congress because >> BJP in the succession to >> succession is not the word I would use. But I look at Dendra FNA with the kind of political capital he has. >> I look at Yoga Adana, the kind of

19:15 political capital he may have after the 2027 elections, you know. So these things are quite unpredictable. The future is quite unpredictable. If you if you were told in 2007 that Narendra Modi >> is winning Gujarat and now he'll probably you know 7 years later >> make a a case for himself in Delhi you wouldn't have believed it >> you know country goes through certain sort of you know cycle the wheel of time moves these things you cannot predict but the bottom line here is today in the congress who's that one leader at a regional level forget national level let's leave the national part alto together >> who's that one leader at a region level you say I want him to be the chief minister of my state come next election or I want him to stay as the chief minister of my state. >> What I can think of is only one person

20:02 Yogi G. >> No but from the congress side >> from the congress no one I think only person that comes to my mind who can grow up to a national level even is Shashi Tarur but I first of all don't even know why he's there where he is. >> See Shashi Tarur okay let's let's have it let me test this Shashi Tarur can win his parliamentary seat fair enough. Can he win the state of Kerala for the congress? Another question to social media antics are fine. Raani can win Telangana for the congress. >> Can he extend that win to Andhra Pradesh to Odisa to say Karnataka and Tamil Nadu is out of the question because they already have their own leaders there. Can can the Raven take the party forward at a national level? >> I don't know. in the north who do you

20:48 see as a regional leader of the Congress people would want to bet on into 2030s. So somewhere the Congress has completely lost its ability to create leaders also that's also a problem and it's not the problem of the BJP. It's not the problem of money. People on the ground are just not good enough. They just don't want to work. It seems they are happy doing their theatrics on social media but social media doesn't win you elections irrespective of the party you belong. >> Yeah. Yeah. Very true. Very true. How do you see month of energy in Kolkata in the upcoming assembly election. >> See, she starts with a significant vote share. We must remember that she starts with a vote share of 35 to 40%. Right away, BJP's best vote share has been 40 41%. So far, the difference in West

21:33 Bengal would be that last 10%. Where do they vote? Now, for the last few elections, they have been with Mtab Banerjee. Now, is it the identity question? Is it the continuity question? They have their own preferences. But if the BJP has to win West Bengal, they'll have to flip that gap of 5 to 7 percentage points which is going to be very difficult. The S will have its you know reduction in addition of voters. That's not going to have a huge impact at the end of today. But for the BJP the challenge since 2019 has been that bridging that 4.5 percentage point gap and Mabanerji has the benefit of identity she has the benefit of continuity but the undercurrens in West Bengal are against her right now from whatever the media reports suggest from

22:20 whatever I have heard from the people on the ground but it's too early it's way too early it's still February and we have May coming up but if the BJP cannot win this election it gets really difficult for them. Even even you know in 2024 people thought oh the BJP has been decimated investment they were not they still had a very very respectable vote share 39 38%. So the BJP has not lost a lot of ground in terms of vote share. So can they bridge that gap? What can they bring to the table? Because look, West Bengal also has its problems. Bihar is progressing ahead. Odisa is progressing ahead. Assam is progressing ahead. Around West Bengal also you know once it was the financial capital of the east of India. A lot of business from the northeast used to go through West Bengal. That's no longer

23:06 the case. >> The kind of infrastructure the surrounding states are witnessing right now. development a lot of you know mindset change also has to come in the in the voters is that coming we'll know soon enough but again it doesn't change the fact that she starts with a v share of 35 to 40%. So do you think West Bengal politics is still dominated by the leftist ideology? >> I think today in the country there are two you know categories or spectrums the extreme left and what you have on the right center right mostly the fringe right I don't think the polity or the policy don't consider that. So on the left you also have the congress now you pick up the manifesto of the congress in 2024. Tell me how different it is from the communists. The communists are now the fringe left. Mhm.

23:52 >> I I remember picking up the CPI manifesto and they said we need to give up a nuclear weapons. Think about it. A year later we were at loggerheads with Pakistan. >> Right. So CPIM says, "Oh, let's give up a nuclear weapons." That's the fringe left. Now the left right now is Congress. >> You have them talking about stuff like wealth redistribution, affirmative action, >> religion based reservation, you know, all sorts of regressive policies. We are against oligarchies. We are against monopolies. We don't even have oligarchies in India, >> right? We do not want to uh you know go for industries that are capital intensive. We want to go for industries that are labor intensive that create more jobs. The mindset of the Congress is now actually left. Now if you want to talk about in Bengal specifically there is a strong overlap between what the

24:38 left thinks and what the Congress thinks. >> Mhm. >> Now Mab Banerjee doesn't like to even touch the Congress in West Bengal. No alliances, nothing, no seat sharing, none of it. She goes on her own path. So how relevant it is not very much. Today before the left in West Bengal the BJP and TMC are primary forces to you know uh contest with. So that way you have to look at their relevance as pretty shortening >> pretty diluted but overall my worry is nationally the relevance of the left is increasing because the Congress now is no longer center left party has become the new communist as you said. Congress is the new communist and that is where my worry is because the entire economic and the social agenda of the Congress now resembles that of the left.

25:23 >> The communists are now the far far left and this is what a lot of people who have left the congress have also said that Congress is now a party of the communist. They have surrounded the leadership itself has surrounded itself with people who think like the communist. That's where the worry is. There are commentators on social media. They say why do we need highways and airports and infrastructure to give you one example. Recall after 2024 you had a flurry of rail accidents. You know there were derailments, there were some issues going on with the railway ministry and you had the Congress social media rejoicing over it. Then you had one of the former RBI governors who is now known for his closeness to the Congress party saying why do we need semiconductor manufacturing in India? In his book, the book is breaking the mold, he says Rahur Ram Rajan along with his

26:09 co-author says that semiconductor manufacturing the cost of job created through semiconductor manufacturing goes to the tune of a few cr rupees. Why do you need semiconductor manufacturing in there? Now when this type of mindset starts creeping into a party's functioning or ideology that is where it gets worrying. Now thankfully thankfully Delingana Raven I would like to believe if not as much as his previous uh chief minister he's still quite bullish on technology. He's quite bullish on investments. He's quite bullish on infrastructure. He understands what his states needs. That way he's a little divergent from his national high command as I like to refer it. and Himachel also the horiculture sector the way it works it's not the way Rahul Gandhi proposes that there should be no private sector

26:55 involvement altogether so that is where I have some economic agenda I'm hopeful with the Congress state leaders because they also want to cater to their state's interest but nationally the emergence of the Congress as the new communist it worries me a lot for the long run >> but uh as you said u uh social media can't win new elections most of the leftists are on the Twitter and on the social media can they really influence any election results? >> Okay, let me be very honest with you and since people I know I am very public about the fact that I'm a BJP voter, right? There's no no apologetic uh notion about that. If today I gathered all the influencers on social media who say they are honest BJP voters and who are open about their ideology, if I took

27:42 them together 50 people, I took them to an assembly, not to a constituency of the parliament but an assembly of a state. I cannot guarantee that we'll be able to swing that assembly. >> Yeah, >> we tend to overestimate >> our importance on social media and we tend to underestimate the size of our electorate on the ground. Take example of Dhuvraati for example having 40 million followers. >> Yes. And a lot of a couple of authors I know who've written books on the 2024 elections. They credited Dhuvraati that probably he has a role in bringing down the BJP from 300 to 240. And I asked him a very simple question. One of them I asked a very simple question. I said how can you attribute something to Dhuvati because his majority audience is in the urban parts of India and the urban parts

28:28 of India have been swept by the BJP. They're winning the cities. The losses have come from Uttar Pradesh, parts of Maharashtra, Hiana, Bengal. Yes, but BJP has also won in Odisa. They won a state election and the Lok Sabha seats. They have done well in Telangana for instance. Punjab, they secured it. But Punjab, they were not a big player anyway without the Kali. >> So how are you reaching on these conclusions? So even the journalists, one of them being Rajib Sardah, he also created Dhuvati in his book. My understanding is that why would you overestimate social media tax extent but again let's take the logic a little further. Let's say they are right. Dhuvati did not stop making videos after the Loka elections. He in fact doubled down. So what happened in Hariana? What happened in Maharashtra? What happened in Delhi? What happened in Bihar? What

29:14 happened in Jammu and Kashmir where the BJP's worship was supposed to come down? Right? What was happening before that? So one good election you tend to look for a lot of reasons and then you tend to attribute those reasons to people who don't even deserve credit for it. So again social media doesn't win elections. Let me be very honest about it. >> The prime minister also knows that >> the country has an electorate people who are eligible to around 100 cr people. That was the statistic given to us in 24 96 97 cr voters. If we get 1 million views on a video we tend to say that video has gone viral. M >> that's just 1 million views views not people watching that that could be around what five lakh people maybe >> five lakh in a country with an elector

30:00 rate of 100 cr how can you and that five lakh is also scattered around different constituencies different assemblies different states sometimes they are not even present in India so how are you using social media as a metric >> and we also tend to believe that issues that are relevant on social media that are the fire on social media they are the issues on the ground. That's not always true also. >> So why is it that the left has historically dominated JNU? >> See a lot of it has to do with the institution's legacy also. >> Mhm. >> That's one thing. The kind of projection JNU has with its entire arts and humanities department what ISR does there. But that's about it. Left in Delhi is constrained to JNU. Do you see that presence in the elections? I haven't. Congress even with its overlap

30:47 with the left has secured three consecutive ducks in the assembly elections of Delhi 2015, 2020 and 2025. So again to carry forward our example of social media what happens in one institution also cannot be you know taken as a litmos test for what may happen in that entire city or state. M but it does influence the mindset a bit even if uh for a few people doesn't a university which is heavily subsidized uh owe the public to be more neutral >> then if you want my opinion on that I'll be I'll take it a step ahead >> let's ban campus politics >> what is the point of campus politics you tell me there are scores and scores of private universities in every state no such nonsense no elections no time

31:34 consumed in all this theatrics the students study there 75% attendance and they're working on a lot of other things a lot of extracurricular activities I'm not saying students need to be boring that's not the point I'm making I'm saying tell me five good reasons why we should continue with campus politics if the political parties are very interested in having students in their representation in their hierarchy you open up internships for college students you enroll them you have them in different roles. You want them to go work on the ground, have them go work on the ground, have them work in a specific >> disc did that. >> Political parties do not need to use campuses to prove a point. And this holds for every single political party. What we want in our campuses is genuine

32:19 innovation. We don't want time to be squandered on elections. You have classrooms, you know, empty, people not studying. What kind of nonsense is this? >> Honestly, I do not understand the point of it. I I started in a private university and I used to see a lot things happening in Punjab University since I used to live in Chantagard. >> I never understood the point of campus politics. Yet it yes it gives you leaders but if you want to create leaders, open up internships, open up jobs. In the age of social media you can hire techies for a lot many roles. You can hire data analysts, you can hire designers, you can hire video editors, you can hire uh you know commentators, writers, speech writers. Tons of roles you can open up as a political party. you can you know curate a a talent pool within your party for the future. Why don't you do that? Why do you need to

33:06 ensure that the entire campus is erupting in some political euphoria every single year? It's a waste of time. It's a waste of resources. And you're right, a subsidized university needs to be neutral. But I'm not saying neutral. It needs to be useful. It needs to give some tangible return to the taxpayer like universities in China do, like universities in America do. This is not my bias against engineering or management. >> If there is Delhi University, it has a heavy you know intake of art students. >> What are they really working on? What kind of studies are they working on? What kind of research are they working on? >> There is so much to be done within this whole Indian you know subcontinent in the sense so many languages so much literature we can you know study so much we can give to the world through our

33:53 students. But what do we do? >> This party doing this this party doing that. It's a waste of time. It's a colossal waste of time. >> I think misplaced priorities. You can say >> we love drama as a country. We love drama. I think the students also tend to love drama. Somehow the campus politics becomes a litmus test for what the nation or what the youth is thinking. I I don't really agree with that. >> So what is PJP's strongest uh weapon? strongest weapon >> to us to the the visible weapon to us the voter or the ones who are analyzing this is probably their >> fusion of Hindutwa with development >> but that is our perception of the BJP to the voter if you were to ask it would be very very different a voter remember is not make uh is not making the decision

34:40 on the basis of if a temple has been made or not or if they can make a UPI payment or not A voter doesn't think that way. If you speak to any non-political person who's probably not that active on social media, who's probably not that active and you know in their WhatsApp groups discussing politics, they'll say that my decision is not based on a single factor. >> If I am a if I'm running a family, my decision also depends on how safe my wife or my daughter or my mother or my sister feel when they're going out. It also depends on how safe my business is. Is there a law and order threat to my business? Is my business in a place or am I living in a place that can any day erupt into communal violence? That is also a factor for them. Am I getting

35:26 better infrastructure? It's not just about the roads. >> Is my connectivity to other cities better? Am I saving up time? Are the trains I'm getting high quality? to a person in their daily life they come across so many uh you know areas of policy and politic that all contributes to the decision making. We in media tend to oversimplify it. We say that's not how it works. You know people have several factors. Now I'll tell you if someone is an MSME owner for them the continuity of their business the stability of their business the returns from the business which is the economic atmosphere how the market is reacting is the market stable enough for the returns to be sustained over a period of time

36:14 >> is the logistics good enough is the infrastructure good enough is the government in place in investing on infrastructure in the future are they getting better connectivity there's so many factors there how the lower bureaucracy is working or not working, how the higher bureaucracy is trying to solve a problem. Are their grievances being heard or not? There's so much for a single MSME owner >> for someone who's 22, 23 year old, what are they thinking 10 years later when I will be in a position to start a family? I'll have a wife, I'll be in the peak of my adulthood. What can this country offer to me? Can it just to begin with offer me an atmosphere where jobs are created where the private sector feels secure where a European or an American feels secure investing their hard-earned

37:00 capital you know these are the questions people ask so for a voter you know we cannot guess what they really think the strongest card of the BJP is to us it's the fusion of hindut and development because that's strategy >> that's that's an easy answer that's an easy answer I'm giving that there is economic growth There is the hindutwa factor then there is a welfare model it all works together well >> now you tell me swatch bharat I'm giving you examples in punjab and hana swatch bharat had no role because those villages were already developed enough to have their own toilets given the whole agriculture model and the green revolution they don't care about it so what happens to water in hana his factors would differ from someone in Uttar Pradesh >> within Uttar Pradesh the factors would differ between western Uttar Pradesh and eastern Uttar Pradesh Within western

37:46 Uttar Pradesh the factors would differ from Nida to Lucknau. >> In Noa the voter would want probably more jobs, more capital investment, more infrastructure in Lucknau. They would probably want better city, the connectivity to that city, a better airport, more trains. Iodha is 1 hour away from Lucknau. What can happen to the tourism economy there? So every 10 km or rather every 5 km you go in this country, you don't know what the water is thinking. But to us in the media because it's impossible to factor all this together we go for this oversimplification. Hindutwa plus development plus the welfare. >> Yeah. >> So to answer your question to the visible part of us it's hindutwa and welfare and the development part. But to

38:32 the voter we don't >> several factors. >> Several factors. I'll tell you something very honestly. Even Narendra Modi cannot decide what voters make a factor when it comes to voting him or someone else. No leader can anywhere in the world. >> Anywhere in the world. We think that media can dictate or social media can dictate that these are the factors that will only be relevant during election. >> We can't. In Bihar recently the entire world was fixated on Natishh Kumar's age anti-inccumbancy the welfare model not working the cash transfers they claimed that were going to influence the elections and then on the election day when the results came why did you vote for the ND again we remember the days of the jungle Raj we don't want it back now

39:17 that is a factor the media wasn't willing to acknowledge jungle rajad who cares about something that happened 20 years ago it's 2005 five since Natish Kumar to take over. So why would anyone care for 20 years ago? Oh why would a young voter care about the jungle Raj? He's never seen the jungle Raj but then he's heard stories from his parents. >> Yeah. >> And I I'm telling it to you on your podcast today people making up all sorts of theories about the Uttar Pradesh election in 2027. Let me tell you today the women voter in Uttar Pradesh once the results come out you'll realize that they also will tell you that we fear that how law and order could have gone back to its old days and that is why we chose the government we chose. >> This is this is where the problem is. I remember Shikhar Gupta I think this was

40:03 after the 2019 elections and they this was a video that leaked on social media and he said we probably think in our circles that this is what drives elections on the ground. this is what drives voter preferences >> but we fail to acknowledge the welfare model that was ushered by the prime minister and this was the first 5 years of the prime minister we don't know right so these are things that are very very remarkable very unpredictable and the voter has a minds of its own just because we are on social media we are in a city or we probably have more access to information faster access to information and more perspectives doesn't put us in a very you know superior place of understanding that humility also needs to come to the commentators >> and analysts and the media people like the party people

40:49 >> and what is one thing that you feel that uh BJV can still do better >> h that's a good question I think one thing they can still do better is pushing the state governments to do more >> you know I think one thing they can do better is bridging the gap between their intent and the communication that I have written about extensively that they need to communicate their ideas far better especially when those ideas from a long run perspective they need to work harder in areas where they're not very strong say Punjab or Tamil Nadu Kerala which already do but then the results have to come up >> so these things they need to improve but if I were to rank them I think communication is one of them >> because a lot of good things in the long run that may not have tangible results

41:35 right now remain hidden from the people of India we people still don't realize that what we're doing with semiconductors I'll Give another example. We started going for semiconductor manufacturing and of course no Asian can no nation can jump to a 2 nanometer 3 nanometer kind of a thing. So people said oh they're going for 28 nanometer kind of a thing. Who cares about that? But then 50% of the manufacturing relies on such semiconductors which is what India is going for. But that communication doesn't come. So for me the one thing that the BJB should do is strengthen its communication. And there is another reason for it. the news cycle moves too fast. People process too much of information. It's a glut we have. >> It's too much of information. So that is where a white house model can really work. A press secretary kind of model

42:20 can really work. So that's number one. Number two, working stronger in the areas they are not really welcomed in politically. So that's I think to think right away. More will come to my mind. >> Also unable to communicate their achievements. >> Achievements. Yes. >> And the projects that are ongoing. >> Yes. Yes. like the top five infrastructure projects. No one knows about what's going on in India. >> No, my my simple thing. Forget top five infrastructure projects. Ask people, you are the point. Draw a circle of 50 km radius from where you are standing right now. >> Just calculate the number of infrastructure projects that have come up in the last 12 years. Let's be generous. Let's take it to 100 km. >> Can someone in this country today say I don't care who they vote for? M >> you know some discussions are not really

43:07 dependent on who someone is voting for the people watching this >> you say in your 100 km has there been no new infrastructure pursuit >> yeah absolutely there is >> so you know you come from a certain state I come from a certain state the kind of infrastructure shift tectonic shift that Mumbai and Delhi are witnessing right now it's humongous >> but who communicates that this is the boring part actually with policy I'll tell you >> the problem is that it's boring It's no drama. >> Yeah, >> it's no theatrics. It's just simple policy. Oh, we are building a road here. Okay, that's about it. >> But what that road does eventually to the people of that region is a story that no one really cares about. >> What about the young voters, the Genesis who will start voting when they turn 18?

43:55 They have no history to or a reference point. >> Absolutely correct. And that's going to be a challenge for the BJP in 2029. >> Think about this. A person who's going to vote for the first time in 2029 was three years old when Narendra Modi became the prime minister. >> He has absolutely no absolutely no understanding of the UPA years, the cost, the opportunity cost, the terrorist attacks, the kind of psychological scar 2611 had on many of us even though we were not living in Mumbai. >> I don't even understand what people in Mumbai feel even today. But for those of us ones uh watching on television also, it was quite grateful. So yes, that is going to be a challenge for the BJB which brings me back to my original point communication. >> Another example I'll give you in this

44:40 country and this I'm talking about the peoples who were born in the 80s and the '90s. How many of them can tell you about the banking crisis of 2015 16 the kind of NPA crisis we had and how it originated. >> A lot of people say a lot of uh Congress loyalists talk about Adani all day and long. There is a report from 2012 house of debt report. It was called it was by credit sus and it listed a lot of corporates that were getting loans from the government in the proper you know manner. A lot of those companies became NPA. Adani did not of course but a lot of other companies became NPAs. Congress was not it's not like Adani came after 2014 but Congress likes to blame Adani for some odd reason. But how many people can tell you about the banking crisis? Congress talks about

45:28 Adani. Congress never talks about the banking crisis. How many people in the BJP know about the banking crisis? The voters I'm talking about. No one. How many people know that the dedicated fried corridor we talk about today? It was planned during the UPA years conceptualized far before but not a single kilometer was built by the UPA. They were just caught up in the land acquisition issues. It was the Narendra Modi government who came up and they built the corridor and the necessity of it is you need exports uh you know your logistics to move fast which cuts down cost of exports and you know for MSMES and other companies. >> Is it right to say that uh even if a small uh even if it is small a small difference that is made in people life and that is why they still vote for BJP. >> I am telling you in Bihar a women is

46:14 saying I might have 100 disagreements with this government. I might not even like the chief minister or the prime minister but today I'm going out freely without being worried about being harassed or molested. That's good enough for me. What do you tell that woman that she's wrong? >> That is the number one factor for her. >> I don't know what she's thinking. Right. I am one of the 100 cr voters in India. My factors start with national security, economic development and then how we are moving ahead. The long you know plan for the country. That's my preference. You would have a different preference. If our group put together 50 people, all 50 of them will have different preferences why they're voting for someone or not voting for someone. >> Yeah, absolutely. >> You cannot have a one-sizefits-all in

47:02 these discussions, >> which again I want to repeat here, we tend to think we know why a voter is voting or not voting for someone. When I say that people do not find that resonance with Rahul Gandhi, I don't know why they're not finding that resonance. Maybe they wanted to say Rajiv Gandhi him they cannot. Maybe they wanted to say Indra Gandhi and him they cannot. Maybe they think Priyanka Gandhi is better. Maybe they think that Narendra Modi is far better choice than Rahul Gandhi. I don't know. All I know is they do not find that resonance with him. Why? I don't know. There might be multiple factors. >> So if you have to build Congress in 2026, let's say you are an adviser, what are the three radical ideas you would suggest? Since I'm a fan of comic books, I'll take this question as one of those multiverse questions in the in in one of the universes where I'm advising Rahul Gandhi. I would change his economic

47:49 agenda. First of all, his economic agenda, for the lack of a better word, is BS. >> It's absolute crap. I have no polite words to describe it. I pick up that manifesto of 2024 and I analyzed it extensively on Twitter. It's absolute crap. The first thing Rahul Gandhi needs to fix is his economic agenda. What is his economic agenda? Jityadi Utnak is a foolish idea because Jityadi Utnak also at some point will point into religion- based reservations which his own allies were talking about. Today you talk about religion based reservations. Tomorrow you will talk about religion- based electorate. Why does it stop? So firstly his economic agenda needs to change. He needs to understand why monopolies exist in developed countries. He needs to understand why jutanyabadi utnahak

48:36 doesn't work. He needs to understand equity is not a pursuit and not something that the state should sort of go for. He needs to understand we cannot have more reservations. He needs to understand we cannot even think of private sector reservations. But Rahul Gandhi is against all those ideas. >> Does he have the brain to understand all this? Make sense out of it? >> I don't I don't think so. Someone who selectively quotes from an article which itself selectively quotes from a book. Why should I believe his understanding of things? I'm being very honest about it. >> Someone who thinks that the prime minister of this country can abdicate his responsibility. Why should I believe him? Someone who thinks that while his state governments are doing business with Adani and Nani, it's okay to call out Adani Amani. Why should I trust him?

49:21 Someone who says in a public rally, he pulls up a journalist, a cameraman working there and says, "What is your cast? What is the cast of your boss? Why should I believe him?" I can give you tons and tons of examples. >> Who are his organizers? >> I mean they are people the visible ones are Pavan Kha Jam Romesh Supria and we all see their eccentricities on social media. >> Mhm. >> The part which is invisible is also the part that reflects during the election results. >> So no again since you asked about advising him his economic agenda is flawed. His understanding of India is flawed. He thinks we are still the Roti Kaparamakan kind of polity. We are not. 2016 Rahul Gandhi and his party says India won't make UPI payments. 2026 we are making more than 600 million UPI

50:07 payments every single day. People learn from their mistakes. Okay, we misread the sentiment on technology in this country and the acceptance of it. What do you do in 2026? India is never going to do it through anything in the air. I have tell you I do I'm on these television debates and Congress spokespersons. Oh, this country has Chad GPT. This country has Grog. This country has Gemini. What do we have? >> They're not even willing to acknowledge the kind of efforts our startups are putting it. >> Very disconnected from the ground reality. >> Totally disconnected from the ground. Totally. Their their entire party now revolves around theatrics. >> Mhm. >> Drama. It's like Ahmadi party but nationally. >> That is why I'm saying there is a huge overlap. Ahmedi party also was all about theatrics and fine they had their run in

50:54 Delhi for 10 years eventually they were kicked out >> in Punjab also >> I don't know there's anti incumbency building against them but fortunately for them the congress is on the war against itself quite like it was in 2022 >> so again not to digress Rahul Gandhi's economic agenda is flawed number two he needs to understand he's not the most competent person in the Congress party which he will never his ego won't allow him to do that. His family's uh you know legacy and the burden that comes along with it will never allow him to do that. So that's a lost cause anyway. So the best shot for him is to improve his economic agenda which again I don't think it's going to happen. >> He mocks the idea of people earning money. Now I'll give you another example here. Narendra Modi says Lakpati

51:42 >> we want to enable women to earn 1 lak rupees every year. That's a Lakati. That's like 10,000 rupees a month approximately. Rahul Gandhi says we come to power under certain yoja we'll give you one lakh rupees cash every year. >> So this is the difference in mindset. >> You said congress is a new communist. >> One prime minister is saying and he gets accused of being you know giving freebies and all that. Narendra Modi gets accused all the time. He's saying I want people to earn one rupees through self-help groups. That's what I want to enable them. Right now they've just set the target at 3 crati dies right he's saying I'll just give away 1 lakh rupees for free for how long you'll give it for 1 year we'll give it for 2 years 3 years how many years

52:30 >> at one point you want to end monopolies so that's where your tax revenue goes for the government >> you want to go for industries that are labor intensive you're already creating sweat shops then you want to have these policies where you want to legalize MSP You want to give one lakh rupees no quantification no understanding of how your beneficiaries would be decided economic agenda is flawed and people feel threatened and to cap it all to sugarcoat all of it your MPs are defending wealth redistribution ahead of the 2024 elections >> and somehow that narrative wealth redistribution though the prime minister made that comment about Mongal sutra and stuff like that it never caught on with the public >> right so his economic agenda is flawed >> so has the BCP failed failed with

53:17 addressing uh the Delhi air pollution. Why isn't there a war room strategy? >> The Delhi uh air pollution the BJP has genuinely failed to communicate the problem. >> See, we have to understand I say this as a resident of Delhi. There are two three things going on in Delhi which people in the media also do not really talk about. >> One this double burning part that starts around September October that remains and that is what you see in the year. two, you have the temperature uh uh inversion part also that starts around November, December, stays until January until the western disturbances come in. So that's also causing the pollution daily. So these are two factors, not single factor because when stubble burning happens, people say no, it's not a daily problem, it's a stubble problem. And when the temperature inversion happens, people say it's not a uh you

54:03 know stubble problem, it's a daily problem. So it's a combination of both. What Delhi needs is decongestion. You need more infrastructure. Now, how do you create more infrastructure? You create bypass roads that take away traffic out of Delhi, which is what the peripheral roads are, the eastern and the western peripheral expressway. The BJP doesn't like to talk about that infrastructure project they've built for some reason. But that has taken out a lot of heavy traffic from Delhi. You have to build satellite suburbs and connect them. Well, NOA and Guram are being developed. You have an RRTS which will open shortly to merit. That is what the Chinese have also done. They've not congested their cities. They've built connectivity. That is what needs to happen with Delhi. At a granular level,

54:48 Delhi has a problem, a severe problem of illegal encroachment. That is where the state government will have to act. >> All the traffic jams, the emissions you see, reason for it is the illegal encroachment. If there are four lanes in Delhi, one road is illegally occupied. Second lane goes to the hawkers and the vendors. The third lane goes to the batteries and the whole rickshas and the autos. The last lane is left for the car and the motorcycles. You will have emissions. >> The metro is being built at a frantic pace. That's great. But Delhi has a problem for legal encroachment. No one fixes that. It's something everyone has made their peace with. And to me, an outsider to Delhi, that sounds very odd. >> You know the kind of uh problem Delhi has. Number two, in most cities, you don't have so many layers of public

55:34 transport. Delhi has now RRTs, then it has a metro, then it has buses, then it has private caps, then it has autos, then it has uh battery ras, then it has commercial vehicles because Delhi is heavily commercialized. So a lot of the rush that you see in Delhi is not actually private vehicles. >> It's not people. It's just how Delhi is. So do you take out two big market wholesale markets out of Delhi and move them on the outskirts probably for the for the next 10 20 years this has to be thought out as well no one really works on that >> and is it true that the funds have not been utilized >> the funds are there I think don't I don't think Delhi has a money problem the security and the infra majorly center takes care of it what Delhi has a

56:19 problem of it is micromanagement if someone actually visits Delhi and I'm not talking about the lit part of Delhi or the south Delhi part that's the good go to North Delhi, northwest Delhi, West Delhi. >> There you go. And you understand, okay, this is a densely populated area and it needs help >> and it doesn't need the kind of help the center can provide. The center is here for the big projects. This is a help that has to come from the state government and this is where Arvin Kajal tremendously failed. >> You can't have so much illegal encroachment within the city. If you have to fuse commercial and residential areas, there needs to be some line of demarcation. Nothing like that happens. Delhi today has complete potential of being a 24/7 city but then it needs to be reorganized in a certain manner. You cannot say that let's just shut down every commercial activity in Delhi. Most

57:05 of the industries have anyway moved out the uh polluting industries but somewhere some degree of reorganization needs to happen and that has to be the job of the state government which is not happening. I see a lot of cleanliness happening with the Yamuna >> but these are early months. We'll know after couple of monsoons. We'll know after couple of seasons. It's too still too early for me to say everything is great or everything is bad. >> But I'm telling you as a Delhi resident who spends an hour and a half driving every day in Delhi, you have two big problems. Illegal encroachment and no clear demarcation between how do you define residential areas and commercial areas and how do you define the transport in between them. Can we look at a model where Delhi works 24/7 and

57:51 some degree of commercial transport until the commercial areas are not faced out of Delhi happens at night? You have to start thinking on these lines because Delhi MSMES they supply to the rest of the country. >> So you have to keep the economic intact while taking care of the city. How can we do that? Let's see. >> One thing that is happening in Delhi right now it's expanding. Metro is going everywhere. They are now actually building repetitive lines, redundant lines because the traffic is so much on the metro. That all stuff is great but some a lot of reorganization will need to happen. It's it's easily a 20-year project. >> But what are the other forms of accountability that uh could be there in place for any political party for that matter like we say something and then uh

58:40 there is no accountability. People can get away by saying anything beat Rahul Gandhi or beat anyone else. >> Yeah, that they do. See, >> it's only the elections after 5 years but nothing else in between. >> Raghav Chhatta had a weird idea right to recall. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Now the problem is he says let's say you have a threshold of voters in a constituency who say that this MLA or this MP isn't working for us. Let's you know ask them to move out. It's not a corporate uh >> in most in most constituencies the opposition party has a 35 to 40% vote share. >> So what you're actually ending up doing

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