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0:01 One fact about international relations is that relations can change at any time. As soon as the talk of Trump's tariff war started surfacing, many foreign policy experts said that tariffs will not be imposed on Israel. Meaning we will not increase on Israel. I wo n't do it in Japan. Wo n't do it on South Korea. But Trump did not spare anyone. And then now we're looking at a trilateral axis. It is also being called triangle. Whose triangle? China, Japan and South Korea. Japan and South Korea. That means, this is considered the traditional allies of USA and Japan is considered to be the frontier of USA in the Pacific Ocean. It is believed that Japan is like a wall to protect the US from Russia and China
0:46 and military bases are located on this wall. Meaning, they are armed. But if that wall is joining with its enemy China, with South Korea, then USA would be like betraying. Then Japan will say that we will not betray. Don't reveal things now. In this video we will now do in depth analysis. First, let us know what is happening. Then we will go into the history of Japan. Specially from the time US Japan relations in post World War Two era. How Japan grew and some of the USA did some similar things. No stone was left unturned to bring down Japan. After that we will know about South Korea. Then we will know today's dynamics. So what does this dynamic say now? Actually all three of them have signed the agreement. They are
1:33 saying that look, let us sign the FTA together. Free trade agreement means that we are saying, first of all China, you give us the raw material for the semiconductor industry and we will give you the chip end products. Meaning we will provide chip products. Because restrictions were already being imposed on China since the time of the Biden administration. For example, at that time, we will not give the chips of some top technologies of the Chips Act to China. But brother, China is ahead in raw material. Some foundries also make it. Foundries means that some also do production. But if we talk about technology then Japan and South Korea are way ahead. So China is like sidelining the USA and directly contacting you. And they are saying that USA is
2:18 sidelining us. So let's get in touch with you. So this is what is going on. Now this triangle will not be just an economic triangle. This will actually bring a new geo-strategic angle which will produce a threat for the USA. Now let's see. By the end of this video everything will be clear to you. World War 2: In this, you remember on 6th August and 9th August, Hirashima, Nagasaki, Japan was attacked and Japan started being counted among the poorest countries. Meaning, devastation occurs. Economic term oil, social term oil, emotional term oil. After that, on the basis of the peace treaty, USA says that Japan, we will take the responsibility of your administration, don't worry, we will modernize you, plus we will build military bases there, as you can see, military bases in Japan, US stationed itself here,
3:04 now the region for this, after World War 2, it wanted to position itself here, then at least it would be able to stop the threat coming from this place or its surroundings. Japan was told that look, we are doing this for your benefit but USA was also benefiting from this because you were getting an ally. After this, Japan transformed itself from one of the poorest countries to the second largest economy with its good education system and pro-growth economy policy. Second Largest Economy. Now if I talk about today, do you know where the biggest foreign investment in the US comes from ? from Japan. And Japan is among the top four economies of the world. How else? One of
3:49 its reasons is quality and efficient pricing. Specific to manufacturing you might be missing the cars. You might be missing consumer products and electronics. I remember you absolutely correctly. On the basis of this percentage growth rate and from which you can export goods across the world. Japan started to rise and in many places it started replacing US companies. So USA said that Japan should progress but not more than us and for this reason USA again played its move and the Plaza Accord was signed. The Plaza Accord was named so because it was signed at the Plaza Hotel in New York. Now see what has been done in this accord. USA signed the agreement. Japan was also taken along. He said that you do not have any other alternative because we are the only ones who export such a large production. The economy of your country is able to run with such a large population only because we
4:37 export to our region. And see, what we are doing is not just good for USA but for everyone. So he said that Germany, France, UK, USA and Japan were all sat together and they were made to sign the Plaza Accord. After this record, USA lowered its currency. Meaning, it got depreciated and the Yuan currency got appreciated. So you will say that if it is appreciated then it will be beneficial. No, if the economy of a country is experiencing export led growth, then it is beneficial for it that its currency remains depreciated. I mean, if it is comparatively cheaper, then think, if 50 EN were coming for $1, then will dollar investment come to Japan or not ? will come. Because brother, if 50 USD but only 10 USD comes for $1, then will it be
5:22 easy or difficult to invest from the US ? It will be difficult. Plus secondly if there are 50 USD for $1 then you are getting dollars in exchange for the vehicles you are selling there. If you are converting into yan then brother ultimately you can buy more things here. Manufacturing may be a better fit for you as you will benefit from convergence. So here Japan was defeated in the case of Yuan and after that Japan's decline started. It was said that Japan's economy is an asset bubble. Now how was the asset bubble formed? Meaning, USA said there was an asset bubble and busted it. The reason was that as soon as its currency was low while its economy was getting strong, as the economy was getting strong, good products were coming, so the investors from USA and different countries of the world felt that they should
6:09 invest in Japanese companies because ultimately their future looks bright. Plus there is the advantage of conversion rate. If we convert the dollar and buy things there, we will be able to buy more things. In this affair, the investment flow has come and if the investment flow comes then the price of the asset will increase, right? So that means the valuation will increase. So this was the bubble here. After this, the bubble burst in such a way that after this plaza record, the growth rate became 1.3%. The situation had reached even 0.5% growth rate. And if I tell you about the period from 1980 to 1990, till 2008, when the global financial crisis occurred, even then Japan was not able to get back on its old track. And then, brother, the global financial crisis of 2008 completed the rest. After that comes the period of Shinzo Abe
6:54 when his economic policy is what we call economics. Due to this, Japan's economy started growing slowly and rapidly again. But look, this was a tough time and from this we got to learn one thing. When times are tough what matters is you sustain your work. Keep doing the work you are known for. Plus network. This is the only thing he did. If they had made some name in the automotive industry then they would have said that we are not able to sell much because we are no longer getting the benefit of currency exchange. So brother, we will continue to provide the low priced products as low as you can. Such as maintenance like car insurance. So through small services they created their own network of customers. Now this network that they maintain with the customers came in handy to them.
7:42 How? Because you know that when a tough situation arises, such ideas, such efforts come out of your mind which earlier when things were going on normally, it was not visible that we can even do this. Like one of this thing is Kiretsu. What is Kiretsu now? What a unique model he has come up with. He said that we can reduce our costs. How to reduce costs without compromising quality. Let us do this by bringing in a system in which we build a network of our manufacturers, distributors and suppliers of different components. And in this system there is Toyota and Toyota SN is the company or it is some other company. All these SIMs together will create such a system that your relations will no longer remain merely transactional. Meaning, make such a system that Toyota gets benefit in increasing the business.
8:29 Koyto which is one of its distributors. If any one component gives this and someone benefits from it, how will that help in the growth of Toyota ? When you mutually buy stakes in each other. So that means a network of distributors, producers and suppliers in the automotive industry where each other 's success becomes important for you. Beyond transaction, you must ensure that you produce your product with good quality, on time and at lowest cost possible, which will keep your profit, because if it earns profit, then friend, you have also bought a stake in it, hence you will also get profit. Like Toyota, look here, look at this Toyota, this company, it bought 5.54 5.45% stake in it.
9:16 So it bought 23.51% stake in it. Here, this company which was a subsidiary of Toyota, bought 7.85 stakes in the company named Denso and here it bought 9.1% in it. So a mesh that can leverage this low cost without compromising quality. Now this thing was not happening in the USA. So they got advantage from this also. I will proceed now. Let me tell you that you will get this PDF here. Shashank Tyagi for you. You can connect with me on Instagram. All updates keep coming on Telegram. If you have any suggestion or any doubt then you can directly message me. If you are interested in Political Science International Relations then you can join new batch directly here using Code Tyagi Live. Well right now this India Festival Sale is going on on Study IQ. It is ending tonight at 12:00 midnight. So you can take advantage of the lowest price. The main thing is that you should start
10:03 your preparation if you have thought. Only when action is taken with intention, results come and through sustained action, that sustained action, through these courses, your faculties and mentors will regularly work with you and that is how you will grow. So you can join directly using code Tyagi Live. You will get maximum discount. Now if we go a little further into Japan's past to see that it had entered the US automobile industry, at that time the already US companies, for example General Motors, their company's cars were more preferred and there was a huge gap in the market share here. But they got the opportunity when the oil crisis hit in 1973, when the customers became conscious that we want a good average. So when sister said let 's tap this because these
10:49 companies like General Motors etc. are making big cars. So in this situation, they made small cars, made efficient cars, kept the quality high and reduced the cost. Now with all this they finally captured the market share. One technique they used was Just in Time Inventory Management. What happens in this is that you do not need to bring inventory of large products to your manufacturing hub, which is your factory. You manage the system in such a way that whatever inventory is required from your supplier keeps reaching there on time. Due to this your capital cost also reduces. So ultimately it is beneficial for you. So they started using it. Now see USA and Japan are indispensable LA. Meaning that USA needs Japan and Japan needs USA, this is in front of everyone. Because I just told you that
11:37 Japan is the biggest foreign investor, USA is the biggest. Just think, USA is imposing such a huge tariff on it. What did you say, look, 25% tariff will be imposed on your automotive. So, it is like where you feel the most pain, we will inflict pain there and the remaining 24%, as mentioned above, has been reduced to 10% now because you know 90 days' time has been given, but the 25% tariff on the automotive sector is as it is. While geostrategic. For example, if you talk about the East China Sea, look here, China is there. There is Russia up here. North Korea is here. And all three of these are threats to USA. And who is standing here like a wall? Japan. But still that is why it is said that many times in strategic calculations you
12:22 consider yourself to be very superior but time can change anytime as has happened here. The interoperability between the forces of the US and Japan is said to be one of the best. So I said, friend, then this means it is a traditional LI matter. And the previous PM, Fumio Kishida, has just been presently changed in October 204. So he also said that we are increasing our expenditure on defence. And as he said, even the previous government also said that this is a very welcoming step that you are increasing your defence expenditure. Look, it has been said that the data will be increased by 60% between 2022 and 2027. So that means Japan's old position was that we are only self-defense people. No. Now Japan is thinking beyond that. This means that Japan can play a big role in Indo-Pacific.
13:07 But Trump ignored all these calculations. He said, brother, why should we give you security? They are saying what kind of deal did the old leaders make? We are providing you security and you will not provide us security. And Japan be like that brother, this super power and big power does not talk like this. Brother, if a comparison is made, you have more security apparatus so it is obvious that you will provide security because we are working for you for Frontier and here you are saying that you will provide us security. What's the matter here? In fact, USA had added an article in the constitution of Japan in 1950 saying that you should keep in mind that you will never keep a military stretcher. Meaning you will be there only for self- defense and your security will be looked after by the US Japan Security Packs.
13:54 So, here Trump is sidelining the old foreign policies and saying that this is old. These are not needed now. So if the US is doing this, then Japan will also have to re-examine its policy. Now the new Prime Minister Ishibaba, the former Prime Minister had made a policy that we will increase it by 60%. So it seems like that calculation was already made for today's time only. Right? and 25% being on the automotive sector. Whereas 3% of their GDP comes from the auto sector. And the biggest thing is that they export total autos. Auto means 1/3rd of the cars or trucks etc. exported are exported to the US only. So the US knows
14:40 that about 8% of your population is holding jobs because you export to our market. You have around 6 million people. So in this situation, USA is also trying to take advantage of this. USA knows that Japan's consumer electronics sector, micro chip sector is already being replaced. Meaning more players have joined it. Meaning you would say South Korea. South Korea is also China. Hey yours is coming to Thailand for the competition. So here Japan knows that its edge is in the auto sector and the jobs of such a large population in the auto sector get threatened. If 25% tariff is imposed then the cars which are exported to USA will be purchased less. Brother, think about it, if the prices increase by 25%, then less will be purchased and if less is purchased then manufacturing will decrease in Japan and then will the
15:26 factory owner create new jobs, for how long will he hold on to the old jobs, this is a matter that will bring crisis in the economy, now let's talk about the alliance of US and South Korea, see, as soon as World War 2 ended in 1945, at that time the super powers decided that we will divide the Korean Peninsula into two parts, that is, North Korea and South Korea, but by your division it will not be finalized only here. After 45, then till 50, things started going wrong here. Right? Now why did that happen? See, in 1910, Japan had taken this Korea area under its control. That means imperialist Japan was controlling Korea. It was under the control of Japan from 1910 to 1945. So this
16:12 interest of USSR and USA in Korea came because Japan lost in World War 2 and if it lost, then brother, now this territory is not yours. Let us free Korea and in the meantime Japan tried its best to suppress the Korean language. Their history and culture should be suppressed. And here homogenous meaning culture should be established. The culture of Japan should be established. So that they consider themselves a part of Japan. Do n't consider yourself different. There should be no talk of any separate freedom here. But there was also popular demand among the people. So in this situation the Soviet Union said that we will free them. Here USA said that we will free them. But both will liberate each other in their own ways. Because of this 38 parallel lines were created. Your North Korea at the top and South Korea below became communist and these became capitalist under the influence of USA.
17:00 Now from 1948 to 1950, skirmishes continued on the border here. That means that the tension kept increasing. In 1948, the United States stated that the United Nations-sponsored separate Korean government should grant it independence. How he wants to run his government and finally it happened here. This Sigma Re Segment Re, the first government under them says that brother, we will follow democratic means. Before that, actually the US had maintained its military presence there. Said that we will support you. Don't worry. You are an anti-communist, aren't you? We are also anti- communist. Here, Kim who was Kim Sung, that is, the grandfather of the person who is today, had the support of the USSR. That means Kim Jong, his grandfather was Kim Il Sung, so finally he started the Democratic People's
17:46 Republic there, People's Republic of Korea. You will say why the word democratic is coming here, why are you saying DP RK? Why are we calling it Republic of Korea? Because the Communist Party believes that it works on the principle of democratic centralism. That means we have only one party and it is the rule. But it works on its own democratic principles. Why? Because their sales happen at the bottom, the groups at the lowest level of the parties understand the wishes of the people. Things are sent to the top and then people's wishes are fulfilled from the top. So they also use the word democratic. Well, now the US was not initially involved. Meaning, if we talk till 1948, the US has maintained a good military presence. But it was not as if USA was involved in a war-like situation there to counter it. Then the USA felt that the
18:32 USSR was directly supporting them. On the other hand, there was a change in China in 1949, because what was going on in China from 1927 to 1949 ? This is also very important because it also had an impact on South Korea. What happens in 49? The Chinese Communist Party wins because here the fight was going on between the Chinese Communist Party and your Chakai Sheikh's party Kumentung. Now as the People's Republic of China is formed in 1949, Mouse Zedong becomes leader. Now Mouse Zdong gains confidence. Mouse Zdong says that now we have respect in China. But now we have to earn respect for ourselves at the global level. In the communist world, there should be respect for China because China has expanded communism. So in this situation Mouse Zdong said now we will go to the world stage. In such a situation, we will send our
19:19 Chinese Communist Party fighters in support of North Korea. So as soon as they send them to fight in support of North Korea, because they had gained confidence after defeating Chakai Sheikh from here. Now USA feels that this is going haywire. So in such a situation, President Truman said that we will follow the containment doctrine. That means, wherever in the world communism expands itself, the USA will send money, arms and people there. So finally under this policy they say that brother, now it is our responsibility to protect South Korea. There are still 28,500 US soldiers stationed in South Korea today for the protection of South Korea and the wider region in this region. South Korea is also now known for electronics. You must have heard the name of Samsung. Right? Apart from this, there is
20:04 also this company S.K. Hinks and if we look at both of them together then they have 17% global market share in the electronic market and if we talk about semiconductors. So think about it, these two companies are from South Korea and have 17% share in the semiconductor supply chain, so it is a very big deal. Now another interesting thing is that both these companies have good relations with the US. That means USA wanted you not to invest in us. We want to promote jobs here. So they have already committed 17 billion dollars. Samsung Electronics built a new plant separately. He committed 15 billion rupees in SK funds. Plus, if we talk about Samsung, it has separately promised that it will increase further investment in its already manufacturing factories. So it seemed
20:50 that whether it was the Biden administration or the Trump administration, both wanted to promote jobs. So in such a situation, relations with South Korea will definitely be good. Then check out the Fab Four here. Fefor means South Korea here and Japan, Taiwan and USA here, there is a group of these four. We call this semiconductor grouping. So looking at this, it seems that a meeting took place in 2022 and after that the developments were saying that USA, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan will together make progress in the semiconductor industry. Plus we will ensure that China does not start using this for its strategic advantage. Which would harm USA and the wider region. But South Korea, Japan are in this with USA. But USA did not pay heed to this either. Yet tariff
21:37 war is being waged against them. So Trump did a total disarray. Trump said no one would be spared. Why? Because we have to bring major change. And if for major changes we have to listen a little bit, that is okay. Now let me talk about South Korea. If I compare the trade data of 2023 and 2024 and tell you, their deficit is 29.3%, meaning the deficit of USA has increased between US and South Korea. If I give the last available data of 2024, then there is a deficit of around 66 billion dollars. This means that South Korea is able to export more to the USA and USA is able to export less. If I give you another data, South Korea exported around $131 billion worth of goods to the USA and
22:23 it was able to export around $3.4 billion to the USA here. So there is such a big gap here. So this is why Trump is saying that South Korea, friend, you have kept us in such a huge deficit. We will impose tariff here. So for this reason, a tariff war is going on here against South Korea also. South Korea's tension is not only about the tariffs imposed on it. Suppose USA says, come on South Korea, we will give you an exception. We will not impose tariffs on you but will not leave China alone, so there will still be trouble for South Korea. Why would you say that? Because if they impose tariff, high tariff on China, which is bound to happen on China and in the future too, it seems like this game is going to continue for a long time. So in such a situation, the manufacturers in China, for example Apple company's products which are manufactured in China, they procure the chip components from South Korea. So
23:08 if China's business went down in the electronic sector it is because the import duty on them has increased. So in such a situation, those components which they buy for their products from South Korea, the business of those components will also go down. So it is more difficult for South Korea. So I think now you must be understanding why this Eastern Triangle is being formed. Why they are coming together by sidelining all the old geostrategic relations and combinations. Because it is important for South Korea that brother China, you too should not drown in this tariff war. It will be a loss for us. So that's why here we are seeing that US-China competition may threaten this South Korea's interest in a wider manner. Right? Now Trump looks down on US, Japan, South Korea tumble. Well, earlier this
23:55 partnership of these three was considered necessary by US foreign policy makers that it is not necessary in Indo-Pacific. South Korea and Japan are also important for the US. But here Trump is sidelining the Indo-Pacific strategy. You can see for yourself that Japan, USA and India are partners in Quad. But still, in the tariff, by sidelining the Indo-Pacific key, they are giving an opportunity to align with China. Right? Meaning, in a way, instead of regional alliances, transactional relationships are being given priority. Now it seems that you were saying America first and then you are saying MAGA but it seems that if this situation continues because then the counter tariffs start increasing then the counter tariffs will increase so the new era that you were talking about, that new era is about to
24:41 come, right, so this trilateral angle is going to get stronger and these counter tariffs will be imposed on USA, which will only harm the overall economy, now Japan is moving away from USA, this is what is being seen, right, why is this happening, I will give you an example, do you remember the Israel Gaza war, at that time Japan went against the stand of USA and said that first of all you should get Palestine full membership in the UN, now USA is against this, so that means Japan is taking a stand on Palestine's full membership and is taking it against USA, so that means you believe that Japan in its foreign policy is just to the The lines of USA are not like that and
25:26 even on the Hamas matter, the Israel operation in the name of self-defense in the Gaza area, in which actions also took place on refugee camps, there USA was using a strategic silence or was believing that it is necessary and a clean sweep has to be done, there will be some collateral damage to the Gaza area, but here Japan was taking a stand against this action of Israel, so it seems that here both are standing on opposite sides. Plus Japan is cosying up with China. For example, the new PM who has come, in his tenure itself, has aligning the number of visits of his, which means his foreign minister, his trade minister, with China plus his closeness with Xi Jinping is being reported, so this is going to be troublesome, now the ground that Abe had prepared of
26:13 US-China plus US- India, it seems like the time for that policy is over now, now Ishibaba and here Xi are considering their butterly relationship as a way out of this geopolitical flux, i.e. the challenges that are being seen. Plus see the new update on People to People Exchange. Here China said that you want to come to China from Japan for doing trade or for a short term visit for up to 30 days. Hey visa free entry for you. Then Japan also said, hey you want to come to Japan from China. In such a case, you will get a 10 year multiple entry visa. So, this means that both these countries are increasing people to people exchange. So this in itself should be a cause of concern for USA's strategy. If USA believes that China is having unitary actions in the South China Sea
27:01 and it is creating problems for its LI also. Creating problems for USA. So brother, here your LI was facing problems due to China's growth in the South China Sea. Now, he has no choice. They are moving ahead with China. And do n't take this to mean that China will go on the back foot. China is not going on the back foot because the power gap between China and them is huge. So this access does not mean that the South China Sea is going to become peaceful. Let me give you an example. Like there is an issue between China and Japan regarding the Sankaku Islands. But regarding the Sankaku Islands, China has claimed this as Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone. A missile has been fired at it. Right? Just two years back.
27:46 So the unitary changes that may happen of the Senkako Islands and the region around it that are a threat to Japan. But the major problem is that till now you were thinking that USA is going back to you. But there is no guarantee that the Trump Administration is in a relationship with you at this point. So in such a situation, as long as Trump is there, if something changes with Japan in this East China Sea, then who is going back to Japan? So this is a big question for Japan. So that's why Japan knows that it should develop a relationship with whoever poses a threat. So in this situation, whether the Eastern Triangle became feasible in itself or not, it became more feasible for Japan. So with this we will exchange substantial funds. For example, if we talk about the period from 2000 to 2004, Japan is also seeing that China also uses the China Plus One strategy. We also have relations with India.
28:32 Because we cannot depend only on China. And because of this, he has invested 44 billion dollars in India. Well, the India angle comes into play here because if Japan wants to boost its economy, then it will have to look beyond China and USA. Right? And with India, he is not only interested in investment under JICA and some trade, beyond that, there is Asia Africa Growth Corridor in Africa and he is looking at the larger picture. Well, as a contusion we can say that the current global image of USA has changed and you will say Sir how can they do such damage because image positioning plays a very big role in international relations, but Trump is changing all this. But look what Trump's perspective is?
29:18 Trump's perspective is that my country matters to me. And through this strategy, I can decrease my total debt i.e. the debt on the country by one third part. If there is such a possibility then why should not I take this risk? Any leader will have to take such a hard decision. His legacy will be remembered. So that is what they are thinking. The US Secretary for State will also have to think that what you are seeing on the business side , on the debt side, you want to change the deficit. How will you manage its geo-strategic implication because it cannot be said clearly right now. This will be known in the coming days. As soon as it comes up, I will bring a detailed video on how Trump is looking at China , Indo-Pacific and South China Sea. You can connect with me here.
30:04 You will get all the updates here. Examine the factors involved in Japan, South Korea, China access and US tariff policies. How do they impact prospects for India? This is a good question. can come. You can submit your answer here. Shashank Tyagi for you in Telegram. Lastly, let me tell you those of you who want to start your preparation, what is the process? Well, as soon as you join the batch, after that when you go to My Purchase, the batch gets shown to you in this manner. Like you join P2I Foundation Batch by tonight 12:00 pm because that sale is ending. So this way you will get this show here. Plus along with this you will also be shown some pre-courses. Like there will be a CSET course, a mapping course, a recorded course of NCERT. By the way, you will get this entire batch
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33:09 Which one of that subject should I take? There will be no such tension. Rest this one is also a live batch. In this, you will also get mentorship like answer writing, tests etc. here. There is a difference in the validity and there is a difference regarding the additional features that I told you about. So start yours today. See you again in classes. Take care of yourself. Jai Hind. You can also share this video and whatever your opinion is, do share it in the comments.
