잭 보글 - 지수가 신고점일 때 투자원칙 다섯가지 (1997년)

0:00 [Music] mutual funds which know nearly 20 percent of all stocks today own only if that's the right word three percent of coca-cola six percent of procter gamble seven percent of ge seven percent of microsoft and eight percent of merck five of the very largest firms in the standard poor's index together these five firms have a market capitalization of almost one trillion dollars out of a u.s market of about eight trillion these five stocks are up forty percent this year far above the gain of 25 for the index

0:46 it's not it seems the index funds are the problem but the envious non-indexed funds anxious unless they fall further back are the problem in all spec similarities with 1929 abound and i don't hesitate to haul up the warning flag the worrisome signs not only include the high valuations i've described but the similarity of the words we read today with those of the now forgotten era for example a united states president who says quote no congress ever assembled on surveying the state of the union has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears the present time in the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment and the highest record of years of prosperity

1:31 calvin coolidge december 8 december 4th 1928 and a financial article states this is a pretty smoke pretty stinging the establishment of mutual funds by banks and independent groups has almost become a fad the public appetite for them grows even more rapidly than the funds can they represent buying power in the market that appears to be without a saturation point new levels in the stock market august 1929 in short it seems to me that speculation betting on higher and higher valuations is in the driver's seat investment betting on the fundamentals of dividend yields and earnings growth is in the back seat probably even in the rumble seat but when speculation drives stock

2:17 returns in the short run while it drives stocks returns in the short run the crystal clear lesson of history at least the past 200 years that in the long run fundamentals drive returns so that tension has to be resolved let me give you two extreme possibilities one a market drop of 35 percent just for the fun of it this would lower price earnings ratio to more nor ratios to a more normal normal level of about 13 times and at 5200 in the dow we would still repose i might add fat dumb and happy where we sat in january 1996 just a year and one half ago this is hardly a doomsday scenario two

3:02 we're in a new era in which stock returns average fifteen percent fourteen percent earnings growth and a one percent dividend yield rather than the long-term historic norm of about ten and a half percent six and a half percent earnings growth plus a four percent dividend yield in short a new era of boom times and high valuations that would justify today's price levels indeed barton biggs that imminent if follow guru at morgan stanley bearish as he has been for so long famine will follow feast in the long run entertained this idea a few months ago in a paper entitled a new mean to revert to he did include the question mark at least he tranced on a new real mean return for stocks of 10

3:49 after inflation but finally fell back on a seven to eight percent range much higher than the norm of about five or six percent but not nearly enough to justify today's price levels the bulls case is quite beautiful you want to hear it it's exemplified by a recent article in wired magazine for july 1997. it's entitled of all things the long boom with the subtitle we're facing 25 years of prosperity freedom and a better environment for the whole world you got a problem with that no i got no problem with that who among us could possibly have a problem with that with watching quote quoting from the article the beginnings of a global boom on scale never experienced before we entered a period it continues of

4:36 sustained growth could eventually double the world's economy every dozen years and bring increasing prosperity for quite literally billions of people on the planet that will do much to solve seemingly intractable problems like poverty and ease tensions throughout the world all without blowing the lid off the environment what a scenario the thesis you might imagine is based on the triumph of the united states and the end of major wars new technology a truly global market corporate restructuring high economic growth and waves of technology a virtuous circle the magazine calls it driven by an open society and integrated world as a result the article continues the fed lifts its foot off the brake productivity soars biotechnology

5:22 revolutionizes agriculture alternative sources of energy abound europe is integrated by 2002 russia has a solid economy by 2005 and china develops the world's largest economy by 2020. all in all quote a radically optimistic meme i'd never heard the word meme before and i failed to find it in the dictionary then someone in the office sent it to me i think i've got it here take just a moment to tell you what meme means in case you share my ignorance meme a contagious idea that replicates like a virus passed on from mind to mind means function the way genes and viruses do propagating through communications networks and face-to-face

6:07 contact between people the meme is the basic unit of cultural evolution so we have a new one apparently now of course it could happen but i wouldn't bet the ranch on it the u.s stock market however seems to be betting the ranch on it it's priced i think for the best of times and only for the best of times but what are the global stock markets are they a better bet alas ever the skeptic i'm a bit doubtful about the global thesis which essentially goes like this but since the us represents 40 percent of the value of the 20 trillion dollar world stock market a fully diversified portfolio a truly diversified portfolio invested in 40 in the us and 60 in

6:53 europe the pacific and the emerging markets provide the highest future risk adjusted return risks so the thesis goes should be lower because global markets fluctuate in different magnitudes at different times in u.s markets but here history doesn't help us very much in the 70s and the 80s for example u.s investors and foreign stocks earned returns of 17 a year terrific returns versus 11 in the u.s with not much difference in risk was it precedent hardly was it a precursor no so far in the 1990s u.s stocks are up 17 a year foreign stocks just 5 and no one can predict which of those patterns if either for that matter we faced in the years ahead

7:40 to buttress the skeptical case my skeptical case i guess foreign returns earned by u.s investors are heavily influenced you should never forget this by changes in the value of the u.s dollar every bit is easy to predict as stock prices and interest rates i.e not easy at all in the 70s and 80s a weak dollar increased strong foreign returns by 20 so far in the 90s a strong dollar has reduced weak foreign returns by 30 you see no pattern there in the long run my best guess is the dollar will be a neutral factor returns will depend on how foreign corporations perform and whatever else may be said i'm dubious the corporations in france

8:26 england germany and japan will outpace those in the us although i may be exhibiting a bit of jingoism here the emerging markets maybe they will but the risks there abound and are notoriously unpredictable skeptical as i am however i will admit as a place for international investing from a diversification stand standpoint and i myself have no hesitancy in recommending an international position maybe five percent of equities but certainly not to no more than 20 percent uh given the extra economic and financial risks and ever elusive elusive ability to forecast the strength of the dollar well we've all been favored with the fruition as it turns out today of the

9:11 ancient chinese curse may you live in interesting times but especially interesting they are with stocks soaring unprecedented heights as new forces of technology and globalization and permeate our world we we can't walk away from it so deal with it we must on that note then let me close with five simple principles a few ideas of what you might want to think about principles of investing that may help you first invest you must the biggest risk is the long-term risk of not putting your money to work at a generous return not the short-term but nonetheless real risk of price volatility even though stocks seem very high consider what i said in my book a little plug there

9:57 never think you know more than the market does you have to be wrong if you do second give yourself all the time you can at the extremes if you're in the 20s begin to invest in stocks you've only got a little bit if you're in the 60s invest more in bonds and lessen stocks but always remember that compound interest is a miracle and time is your friend third have rational expectations about future returns and be mentally prepared for market declines always remember in good times and bad times alike this too shall pass away i spend a full page in my book on that sage piece of wisdom if this too shall indeed pass away and your emotions can kill you

10:43 you should keep them out of your investment program because impulse is your foe fourth rely on simplicity simplicity above all there are too many witch doctors in this business basic investing is simple a sensible asset allocation to stocks bonds and reserves a middle-of-the-road selection of diversified funds a careful balancing of risks and returns and lest we forget costs which can kill long-run returns too don't disregard low-cost index funds that's my only plug warren buffett just happens to agree on buttress by his support on the importance of cost and on the value of indexing a nice third third-party endorsement if you will

11:29 and fifth and last when you followed all of these four rules as i said and i've meant a thousand times if not ten thousand times no matter what happens stay the course good luck in investing in these interesting times thank you [Applause] foreign