Market Mantra | मार्केट मंत्रा | 18 (July)

0:09 Ma Mantra Namaskar and a warm welcome to Market Mantra the program in which we give you a complete update on the economic business and stock market news of the day Well I am your anchor Lalima Aja Dang and I am my co anchor Subodh Mishra Thank you Lalima and Namaskar listeners Market Bandar is present with the business news in this half an hour show we will look into the news of stock market and economy.

0:56 Senior economic journalist Vishal Dahiya is with us in the studio to discuss today's news. Hello and welcome to the Vishal program. Hello Subodh ji, thank you. Lalima Neza Dam with first headlines. Thank you Subodh. Yes friends let's begin with the headlines. Well, benchmark domestic equity indices extend losses to the third consecutive week. Sussex Drops Over 500 Points Nifty Settles Below 25,000. Prime Minister Narendra Modi lays Foundation Stone and Inoguts multiple development projects worth over ₹1,400 crore in Bihar and West Bengal and oil prices edge higher today after European Union's new sanctions against Russia. The country's stock markets

1:41 continue to decline for the third consecutive week. Sussex dropped over 500 points. Nifty below 25,000. Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated and laid the foundation stone of development projects worth over ₹1,400 crore in Bihar and West Bengal as fresh European Union sanctions against Russia pushed crude oil prices higher. Let's take a look at the first news. The country's stock market indices Sussex and Nifty 50 closed with a decline today. Selling pressure continued in the stock market for the third consecutive week. Today's decline is due to heavy selling in IT sector stocks

2:28 and investors are also being a little cautious ahead of the trade talks between America and India. Today Sensex closed at 81757 with a decline of more than 500 points. Whereas Nifty fell by more than half i.e. 143 points and closed at 24,968. Both BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices declined by 0.6%. Well domestic equity benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sussex ended in red today extending losses to the third consecutive week Downward trend in equity benchmarks can be attributed to sharp selling in IT shares and the cautious attitude of investors ahead of the US India trade discussions at close the 30-

3:15 share index Sensex was over 500 points down at 81757 while the NIFI index shares shed over half a% and 143 points to settle at 24968 Broader indices at BSE also witnessed a sell-off today both mid-cap and small-cap indices shared over 0.6% each Shares of 23 out of 30 companies listed on Sussex closed with losses. Take a look at the stocks that fell the most. Axis Bank fell by about 5.25%, B Electronics by more than 2.3% and B Airtel by about 1.5%. These are the stocks with the highest growth. Bajaj Finance gained nearly 2%, Tata Steel over 1.5%

4:03 and ICICI Bank more than halved. Well among sectoral indices at the BSE 18 out of 21 sectors ended down among the top laggards Capital Goods Dipped 1/2% Bankex Slipped Over 1.3% and Industrials Fell Over 1% Among the Top Gainers Metals Surge Over 0.4% Focused IT Climbed 0.05% and Services Added 0.02% The overall market breath at the BSE was negative as shares of 389 companies declined shares of 1660 companies advanced while shares of 1659 companies remained unchanged. At the National Stock Exchange 69

4:49 companies hit their 52 week high while 19 hit their 52 week low. And what's the status of the Rupee Sub? Rupee Today The rupee today fell by 7 paise to close at ₹ 86.15 against $ 1 in the interbank foreign exchange market. On the other hand, the index showing the position of the dollar against six major currencies of the world was trading at 98.32 in inter-day trading. Vishal, now we have told you all the news of the stock market. There has been continuous selling pressure for the last three weeks and if we look at the data, the decline in five days is 65 points if we

5:35 talk about five trading days from Monday to Friday and if we look at one month, then also the Sensex is up by almost 4%. If we look at the 6 month data, it is up by about 6%. So ah the 1 month and 6 month figures are still satisfactory. But the continuous decline for 3 weeks is showing something. See Subodh ji, the phase of decline started three weeks ago. The first and most important factor that I believe is responsible for this downturn is that the earnings figures for the first quarter are not encouraging. In fact, after the performance of the

6:23 big companies of every sector in the last financial year, the market was expecting a good performance in the first quarter of this financial year. Good figures will emerge. That means there will be profit, profits will be earned by these big players in every sector. But probably last week we saw that the first quarter figures for the IT sector were also not very encouraging. Due to this, a slight decline was seen in the market for two consecutive days. Then it definitely stabilized a bit. If we look at these figures this week and especially today, the banking sector was most responsible for bringing the market down. The performance of Axis Bank was

7:09 not very good today and its impact, as you mentioned, was also seen on the other banking stocks. So first of all we talked about the performance. The first quarter figures were discussed. The second big factor is that of FIIs, that is, the Foreign Institutional Investors. If you look at the rough figures, whether you talked about the figures of six months or one month, if this is the seventh calendar month, then yes, in July, the FIIs have been sellers till now, there is pressure of selling only. Yes, absolutely and if we look at the entire year, in the first three months of this year i.e. January, February and March, FIIs were net sellers. That means he was continuously selling. But the three

7:55 months that followed were good figures. He invested heavily. According to the figures that have come out so far this month, selling worth about Rs 17,000 crore has been done by FIIs. If no positive strong indication is found, then I believe this selling trend may continue in the remaining seven to eight days. And if this continues, its impact on the market will definitely be seen to be slightly negative. So these are two big factors. Apart from this, if we look at some global factors, then the entire market keeps an eye on what is happening in the American market? What is the US Fed Reserve doing? And what are the expectations from it? We have seen a trend

8:41 that especially when RBI's monetary policy meeting takes place, four to a week before that, an atmosphere starts building up as to whether there are positive cues or some negative cues and similarly when Fed Reserve's meeting takes place, it is also seen in that context. This time the date of the Fed Reserve meeting has been fixed on July 30 and the kind of analysis coming from the American market or American economic experts, no positive cues seem to be coming from there. Because of this, the global sentiment that we talk about is also not very positive for the market. So these are roughly the big figures. If we talk about today, tomorrow or this week but if you point towards six months then another factor gets added to it and that is the valuation because if we talk about the valuation of Nifty then the

9:27 PE index was around 22.6 and the average of the last 2 years was 22.3. So especially if FIIs are net sellers for about 3 months in 7 months, then it is very important to keep an eye on the PE index. When we talk about the earnings of the first quarter being low is huge because there is a fall in demand and considering the fact that inflation has been low and under control over the last few months. Why is there a fall in demand also urban vs rural. Rural Seems to Be Up? Is that true? Well I would say this is pretty much cyclical Lalima ji because and there is nothing more to worry about the reason why I call it cyclical is because of the fact that you know if we

10:16 look at the inflation figures and you are right there rural is slightly lower than the urban inflation figures. Now looks like there is a lot of demand as far as the rural is concerned but overall inflation figures are the same if we go through the past six months and so then it is pretty much clear that there is a huge improvement. So that means there is an improvement in the demand segment as well. So it's not just about demand being a factor for you know a poor earning a show by most of these ah big names and major names. Because ah if their quarter one earning is not up to the mark. And I am saying up to the mark. It's not I would still say that you know some experts would say and I would agree with them that it is not negative. It is not meeting the expectations. That is what is

11:03 having an impact on the stock market. Because the first quarter earning report is always compared with the overall growth you know in the last financial year. And that is an added burden ah for the first quarter you know, ah financial reports. They gave those impressive numbers to the market which perhaps investors are looking forward to. But again this is cyclical if we look at the FIIs as well, this is pretty much cyclical. First three months they were net sellers. You know second three months as I am saying earlier they were net buyers. And now again they are net sellers. So of course this is going to continue for a little bit

11:51 time I would say may be another week seven 10 days and then perhaps if we get a positive cue from the Fed and from other you know global markets then there is this might be a reversal of the trend there Yes Vishal, you have mentioned some sectors earlier as well and if we look at the others as well then 18 out of 21 sectors were down and the biggest decline was in our banks, so we talked about banks but capital goods have also declined by around 1.5%. Industrial is down by 1%. If we talk about the growth, almost half of them are in metal. IT is 5. It is useless to mention it.

12:39 But capital goods and industrial because we have already talked about banks. Would you like to say something about these? Look, you have presented the data for capital goods and industrial and the decline you have mentioned in them, if I take you a bit back and have a look at the data for the first quarter of last year, you will not see much difference. As I was saying earlier, especially when we are in the first quarter, the market sentiments reflect the market earnings, especially the sectoral earnings of the big players. And it is vice versa as well. This is just the position. The market earnings will not reflect the overall sentiment of the market.

13:25 But the impact of other factors on the market earnings definitely determines one thing that how the coming times, i.e. the next 15 days or 10 days, will be. We have seen many times that whether it is the figures of the first quarter, second quarter or third quarter and especially you talked about capital goods and other sectors. When the global sentiments give positive cues, then these figures get overshadowed and then we do not pay much attention to them because the market is moving in a very positive direction. So I believe there would be a decline of half to 1%, especially since we are only in the first quarter. We are now in the second quarter. It

14:11 's in the first trimester only. But by and large, it is recoverable. Number one and number two should wait a little while now. There will be many more factors. Positive cues will come and the kind of discussions that are going on about RBI's monetary policy, if we get another bonus from RBI, then a boom in the market is inevitable. I can hope that it will definitely come and if we look at its impact in a cyclical manner, then we will see its impact in demand and supply and in other sectors as well. Right? So sometimes global factors override the domestic factors and it's a tough job for the central banks as they always have to control inflation to encourage growth isn't it? Well ah it is it is it is in a very

14:58 tightrope walk fortunately enough as far as the Reserve Bank of India is concerned this time around they are their position in a very very sweet spot right now because the inflation figures are going as per their benchmark a you know ah rates a rather much below that and a it's not just one quarter it's the low inflation figures have sustained over a period of time. So that means RBI has a lot more elbow room to go ahead and manage itself if you know it, play the long game as far as the monetary policy in market is concerned. Right? Yes. Next news from Asian and European markets. There was a mixed trend in major Asian markets today. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed more than 1.3% higher. Singapore 's Straits Times index gained 0.6% and China

15:45 's Shanghai Composite gained half. On the other hand, Japan's Nikkei fell 0.2% and South Korea's Kospi fell 0.1%. There is not much movement in the major markets of Europe in early trading today. France 's CAC was up 0.08% at the time of writing the news. While there was a slight decline in London's Footsie and Germany's tax. Alright look at the US stocks well US stocks advanced yesterday as strong corporate earnings and upbeat economic data boosted market sentiment on Wall Street The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished nearly 0.6% up The SNP 500 rose over half yearly and the nush their composite added 0.74%

16:32 Where do you see the US economy particularly because the US and India trade deal is on The negotiations are on and who gets against who loses how much? It's a tug of war as always. Many hopes, many fears. If we are in pharmaceuticals, we are exporting one third of pharmaceuticals from US they come from India. So, ah it's going to be disadvantaged people of us. How do you view the whole scenario. A well, you know, this is if you put it very briefly that this is a tug of war. But ah interestingly this is a tug of war on which ah not only you know Indian and US ah investors and people and policy makers are focused upon but there are you know ah global eyes are also set upon this particular deal because this is going to then ah set a sort of a road map

17:19 for the United States and rather I would say you know Trump tariffs. How to Deal with Trump Tariffs. Well President Trump and rather the US has not been able to go ahead and hammer any significant deal with China but then you know bits and pieces here and there as flare as India is concerned I believe perhaps this might be once it is hammered out all the nonsense are fixed and put in place this might end up being a role model for the other economies to go ahead and you know how they can deal with the Trump terrible one for the US economy as well since you asked it it's going to be real because there have been a lot of appeals in the US you know economy in the past six to seven months first it was a tie raid of Trump there then you know the

18:08 Israel Iran conflict in between of course the Ukraine Russia conflict has has been having a very significant impact But if we just look at today there is a very interesting observation you know where we say that because of the concerns regarding what the US Fed might do or might not do he has had a slightly negative impact on the Indian markets. The US markets are seeing a surge in gains because of the simple reason that their first quarter earnings data is much more positive than what they expected. Again I'm I'm quote unquote I putting the word here expected. Because you know the expectations in the market we will set up a trend. And once ah once a trend has been set up then it's not possible to break that trend in a session or it

18:55 takes two three days for the market to come out of that you know ah that trend circle and that is why ah were as in the Indian context ah the first quarter earnings on in most of the sectors and in the top you know ah companies of two sectors did not meet the expectations in the US despite not very positive sentiments coming in from the Fed ah today was a good earnings day for the US this markets because of the first quarter data. So again, what needs to be understood here is there are a mix of factors. We can't just blame one and we can't just know tom the other. We will have to look at it in a holistic way both domestic and global factors as well. And there in these lies, the real you know questions and the real tightrope work for the US economy policy

19:41 makers as well as how will they deal with it? Because Trump tariffs will have a global impact. They will have a domestic impact as well and weather or not the Fed reserves stance will be able to go ahead and you know a match ah the strides of President Trump ah keeps on you know sometimes reversing his stand almost on a daily basis. So we will have to, we will have to wait and watch because economic decisions cannot be you know just changed overnight or can be taken today and reversed tomorrow. They will have an impact over a period of time. That is why there is a lot more to come as the US economy is a concern. Right and President Trump has secured German Pal's job saying he will not let go of him. Probably he is not economics but more of a lawyer even than that. Allright. Let's move on.

20:28 The US House of Representatives has passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stable Coins and Genius Act, a bill to regulate US dollar pegged stable coins and sent it to President Donald Trump who was expected to sign it into law. The House Also Passes Two Other Crypto Bills to Create a Wider Regulatory Framework for Digital Assets. Meanwhile Bitcoin World's Largest Cryptocurrency Surged Past $12000 By Mark Boyd Amid Growing Optimism Surrounding Crypto Regulation. Ji and Prime Minister Narendra Modi today laid the foundation stone and inaugurated several development projects worth Rs 12,400 crore in Bihar and West Bengal.

21:13 These projects in Bihar are related to rail, road, rural development, fisheries, electronics and information technology sectors. Initiatives are being taken to improve regional connectivity and promote a gas-based economy in West Bengal. On this occasion, in his address, Mr. Modi said that development of Bihar is necessary for the development of Eastern India. He said that in the last few years a lot of work has been done to provide maximum employment opportunities to the youth of Bihar within the state itself. Mr Modi said that in the last 11 years, more than 4 crore houses were built for the poor under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana. Of which 60 lakh houses were built in Bihar. Only

22:00 when Bihar progresses will the country progress and Bihar will progress only when the youth of Bihar progress. Our resolution is a prosperous Bihar and employment for every youth. The youth of Bihar should get maximum employment opportunities in Bihar itself. For this, rapid work has been done here in the last few years. The vast North to South East to West country is on a development roll. Yes, some more information is that the Prime Minister

22:50 also released Rs 400 crore to more than 61,000 self-help groups in Bihar under the Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana National Rural Livelihood Mission. Ah huge which are the figures today the foundation stone of several development projects worth more than ₹ 12,400 crore have been laid in Bihar and West Bengal. Many have also been inaugurated. Now this can prove to be a big step to change the face of the eastern part of the country and decide its future. Look, if you want to understand its context, then I will take you back two years for just a minute. You may remember that two years ago or three years ago when the budget was presented, a big figure was mentioned in it in which it was said that the capital expenditure would be Rs 1 lakh crore. Then

23:37 after that in the next budget it increased to Rs 1 lakh 111000 crore. So the government's intention was clear and from there, what can be called a uniform policy line was drawn, a line was drawn, it was decided that the money that is being allocated in the budget in the name of capital expenditure will be spent on big projects, infrastructure projects and also on social sector projects which are related to infrastructure. As you mentioned, the houses that have been built under the PM Awas Yojana. Apart from that there is rail and road infrastructure. Whether we talk about airports or even electronics and IT hubs, all the money that was air marked is now slowly beginning to bear fruit because it is very important to have continuity in the government and especially

24:23 in the policies of the government. You cannot do that this year the government allots ₹100 for any project or any sector in the budget and next year allots only ₹10, then we will see very good results. We will have to maintain a continuity. There must be continuity. Money is continuously being spent on capital expenditure and infrastructure expenditure. And these projects which we are seeing now, whether in North India or South India, and today you mentioned that the projects which the Prime Minister has inaugurated are in Bihar and West Bengal. So if we want to improve the overall condition of the country and the economic condition, then emphasis will have to be laid on infrastructure development and we can see that emphasis.

25:10 Alright moving on. The Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal interacted with the heads of commercial wings posted in 74 Indian Missions Abroad across 61 countries through video conference to review and strengthen India's global trade and commercial engagement strategy During the meeting, Indian Missions made detailed presentations on trade promotion challenges in market access and sectoral insights The Ministry of Commerce and Industry in a statement said that the Minister acknowledged the Missions as the first point of contact for India's commercial and economic diplomacy. Mr Goyal emphasized for collaborative efforts to support India's objectives in multilateral forums such as the World Trade Organization, especially in key areas like

25:56 agriculture, public stock holding for food security and fisheries subsidies. And moving on well, India's foreign exchange reserves declined for the second executive week decreasing by $3.06 billion to $696.67 billion in the week ending July 11th according to data from the Reserve Bank of India. This follows a $3.04 billion drop from the previous week bringing the reserves to $699.74 billion. Well the primary reason for the decline was a fall in foreign currency assets ( FCA) which are a significant part of India's forex reserves. Yes, in our next news let us take a look at oil. Oil Prices Edged

26:42 Higher Today as Investors Wed New European Union Sanctions Against Russia. Agencies report that its latest sentiments package well lowered the G7 price cap for buying Russian crude oil to $47.6 a barrel. Brent crude was trading over $0.7% up at $70 and 4 cents per barrel and WTI crude was trading almost 1% up at $68 and 19 cents per barrel when reports last came in. Yes. And actually Vishal had said earlier also that the prices of crude oil are now going to show some new color in the world. Yes, because the kind of statements that are being made by President Trump on the Russia-Ukraine theatre and the kind of response that is

27:29 coming from Russia, it seems that the matter on crude oil could get a little heated. And in the Indian bullion market 24 carat gold was trading over half around up at ₹ 98420 for 10 grams and silver at ₹ 995 was also trading almost 0.9% up at ₹ 13600 per kilogram a short while ago and at the time of last news on the Multi Commodity Exchange, the price of gold for the month of August was up by almost halving to ₹ 98,814 per 10 grams. On the other hand, silver supplied in September was up by nearly 1% at ₹ 13,400 per kg. Today gold is looking a bit

28:18 shiny in MCX Vishal but for some time now it was feeling that now the shine in gold will reduce a bit. Meaning, if we can say that there is stability, however I believe that the shine of gold will never diminish and especially on the day when the market goes down, gold will be seen shining a little more. We, we and I sometimes joke and say well may be silver is the new gold because silver has been rising consistently as there is demand for silver in many other sectors and industries and currently there is a new push for defense and there is demand for silver in it, so due to the new demand in that market, its prices are bound to rise. Yes Yes Yes Yes, thank you very much for coming to the Vishal program and discussing.

29:04 Yes, thank you. Thank you Vishal and friends before we close as a reminder the headlines Benchmark domestic equity indices extend losses to the third consecutive week Sensex drops over 500 points Nifty settles below 25000 Prime Minister Narendra Modi lays foundation stone and inaugurates multiple development projects worth over ₹12400 crore in Bihar and West Bengal and oil prices edge higher today after European Union's new sanctions against Russia Well friends that's all we have for you in this edition of Market Mantra this is myself Lalima Aja Dung and my coworker Subodh Mishra signing off so for now Namaste Ma

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