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0:00 There's one thing that everybody's been bullish on from retail to institutional investors, hedge funds, and even central banks, and that's gold. And when you look around the world, the bullish narrative is clear. There's economic uncertainty, geopolitical issues, governments running up massive deficits, and even a weakening dollar. And what this is doing is driving massive amounts of money, not just into the physical metal, but into ETFs as well. But when you look at the price chart, particularly over the last couple of months, it's telling you something very clear. and that gold is about to come crashing down. I'm going to make the case of why it may be time to get out now. Plus, we've got some incredible trade setups for you. You're not going to want to miss out on these. But let's talk about gold because what really changed my mind wasn't just the price chart. It started with this headline. As
0:47 Americans cash out on gold coins as Asian investors bulk up and retail investors are ready to cash in after the metal stunning rally over the past two years. And these Americans are bucking broader market trends in which more wealthy investors continue to aggressively buy the haven assets as do sovereign funds and central banks. Meanwhile, Asian gold buyers are stewing jewelry for bars and coins. And this is a really interesting change because retail investors have been beating the pros over the last several years time and time again. And right now, the pros want to hold a massive amount of gold as retail looks to cash in on their gains. But who's right? Is it retail or the pros? Well, let's take a look because right now it's looking like that retail may be right and you may need to follow suit because when we look at this
1:33 article by the market here, you can see gold trend is snapping as cheaper options. And here's a big one. Looming CTA liquidation. So, while everyone's buying, what have we seen in the chart? Gold has started to peak out and now the machines are looking to sell. And when this happens, it could drive a mass exit and send the price plunging. But there's something about the price chart that also got my attention, and that is we haven't seen gold trade below the trend line that's been in place so far in 2025. Nor have we seen gold trade this much below its 50-day moving average since late 2024. Now, if you like to trade moving averages, here's something really important to understand. When it breaks a major moving average, such as a 50, 100, or 200 day moving average, it's a very bearish signal. It's even worse
2:18 if it rallies back up and gets rejected by that same moving average. So, let's take a look at the chart here. We're going to dig deeper into this because if you look at the trend line in gold here shown in yellow and you see the 50-day moving average and we're going to look at that a little bit closer here. What you can see it's broken both of them. But there's another issue. It's gold volatility and that usually trades with an upside skew. So, what we're seeing is gold volatility plunging, suggesting the metal's about to follow. Let's take a look at our screens here as we dig deeper into this. Momentum here is clearly negative. Now, how do we know that? The relative strength index, this is at 42. It's been decelerating. Now, when the RSI is above 40, that's a positive indicator. But the problem is you can't just trade based on one indicator alone. Let's take a look at
3:04 the MACD or the moving average convergence divergence. It's got a negative cross. Now what we do is we take these technical indicators like the RSI and the MACD and we aggregate them together right alongside the trend and that's called momentum timer pro. Right now we're seeing four consecutive daily sell signals. So from a momentum and trend perspective we're seeing some validation in that break of its trend line and its 50-day moving average. But what about machine positioning? Well, we model that too. Now this is called our CTA timer pro. It's important to understand machine positioning because they can drive hundreds of billions of dollars. In this case, we model historical overlay and our models are saying that the machines should be selling here. So, let's take a look at the price chart and then we'll dig deeper into what's going on with gold. And here you can see what I saw was a
3:50 major red flag over the last two months. Now, what you're going to see in this six-month chart, that red line, that's the six-month volume profile. That's where most shares have been traded. Now, what's really key here is when it breaks that, people that have bought at that level, they like to turn into sellers. Now, you see I've got some purple lines here. These are called supply zones. And when you see price trading in a supply zone, it's either an indication of where people have been buying and want to buy or they've been selling. In this case, you have a bunch of buyers at this level. You see sellers above here right around in the low 300 range. And what's happened again, it broke that 50-day moving average. Mine here in green and the six-month volume profile and the trend. And what's happening here is people that were buying gold and getting long are now looking to sell. If we look at where the price can go here, you've
4:36 got your first level of support at the 100 day moving average. I think there's a little bit of support here where it touched the 50-day, but I'm not really bullish at that level. Drop to this supply zone here, you're looking at over a 6% drop. Get down here to where there's some more volume. Now, you're looking at a 10% drop with support around it 200 day moving average. And again, technically speaking, you can see the RSI and the MACD trending down. But the problem is this is just the beginning of the bearish case for gold. Let's take a look at the connection with the dollar. We're going to talk a lot more about the dollar later because I think there could be some major opportunity that. But let's look at the relationship between it and gold. And you can see here we have the dollar shown inversely against gold and they've been running together. The problem is the dollar is showing signs of bottoming
5:21 here. And this is a major risk. This could be a catalyst to push gold down. But we've talked about machine positioning. Let's take a look at BFA's research. And they say the bare case for gold begins at 3,250. That's where the CTAs are projected to start unwinding. And as a close of business Friday, gold was trading around 3,286. So we're not far from that sell signal. So you can see the case here. All of a sudden, retail is starting to liquidate. Price is starting to break down. And that means if you see the machine sell, you're going to watch a lot of these hedge funds and institutional investors cut and run. We could see a major drop here in gold, which is wide the case. You may want to cut some of your positions. Now, if you're a long-term holder, that's okay. You may want to look to buy at those lower levels, but if you're a trader, this may be an
6:07 opportunity to cut and run and buy back in at a lower level. But let's talk about the broad equity market because we've had some great success trading this this year. We've noted that machine positioning has driven markets higher and I still think that markets can go up even more. You may remember about a month back I gave everybody the all clear to buy the major equity indices. I bought semiconductors. I sold out for a nice gain. Last week even though I think the markets can go higher. Let's take a look at what Goldman has to say about machine positioning because there's a huge amount of opportunity. When you can trade with machines, you can make a ton of money. Now, right now, we're currently in the buyback blackout window. 85% of corporates are in the blackout, meaning a large part of this market is being moved by retail and hedge funds. Remember I told you that hedge funds are massively short and that
6:53 institutional investors had raised cash and would play chase. They're starting to do that. But there's a major risk here and it's called margin expansion. Everybody is looking at the market and saying this is a proxy for the economy but we're not actually seeing that in earnings and that's a risk here. We could be facing a bubble scenario. But are the machines about to sell? Well unlikely. Over the next month machines could come in by 44 billion of global equities. A little over 11 billion of that will flow into US equities. But in terms of any sell signals, the short-term indicators at 5867 on the S&P and right now the market's way above that. But let's talk about BFA because right now Michael Hartin is saying look we could go into a bubble and this could be a buy the rumor sell the news particularly with the tax cut package
7:39 now moving through the Senate. And what he believes is this could lead to a high risk of a bubble in the second half of the year on top of the fact we could get a Fed rate cut as early as July. Now we often know the first rate cut is seen as a very bullish indicator. But there's a problem here because while the market says look this is all response to inflation. The reality is the economy continues to slow down here. But again those looking at the equity market as a proxy for the economy there's a huge disconnection here. And this all starts with the Russell 2000 because small caps aren't validating what's going on the large caps. That's one of the reasons I sold out here. And plus, I think there's some other opportunities because those you know I love to trade momentum, particularly love machine positioning.
8:25 But my favorite thing of all is when everybody is short something and we see machine positioning turn or momentum turn. Well, that's where the big trade. I want to show you a couple of those, but first let's talk about the Russell 2000 and why it's a big red flag for the broad equity market. Let's start by taking a look at breath. And this is a percentage of the Russell 2000 stocks trading above its 200 day moving average. That's shown in red. And that's at 41.22%. And again, this is a red flag because price has been going up ahead of breath. That means a fewer number of the Russell 2000 stocks are leading the indicy. And that's not a good sign. What you want in a rally is something that's broadbased. So, we're not really seeing it here. Now, let's take a look at our screens because what do we see? Momentum's still positive. of the RSI at 62. MACD's got a
9:10 positive cross. So, technically speaking, you can see with momentum timer pro seven consecutive daily buy signals that momentum is to the upside on our 30-day window. You can see we've got a buy max on this. Even our machine positioning is modeled at 100% long. And again, that's taking account our historical overlay. But let's take a look at the price chart because I think it tells us something different. Now, keep in mind, you're seeing the major indices break out to new all-time highs. But what's the problem is the Russell isn't following suit. Now, it picked up its six-month volume profile and held here, rallied right into its 200 day moving average where so far it's been rejected. Now, if it can break out of that from a volume perspective, you're looking at a run up to the supply zone. The risk is, let's move out to the one-year chart, and what do you see
9:56 right above it? A lot of selling pressure is sitting there. So, there's a lot of risk here. If there was validation in the big cap indices, we should see the Russell 2000 following suit. Right now, we're not seeing that. And to me, that is a huge red flag. But let's talk about some opportunities here because this is what everything's about is how do you make money? Because if you're looking to get out of gold or some other positions or maybe you're going to ride the market up to the peak and just raise your stop-loss levels, there's a lot of other opportunities because there's two things in particular a lot of people are short. One of those is the bond market. The other is the dollar. Right now, we're getting some indication. At least machine positioning is changing on the bond market. And wait till you see the price chart. This could be a very bullish narrative. And based
10:41 on our modeling work, this from Goldman, we expect CTA trend followers to continue and increase their buying of global government bonds in a baseline scenario, meaning if price were to rally, they're going to buy even more. And so this is a great move if you're a trader because one thing you want to do is buy in before the machines and then ride the wave with them. Let's take a look at our screens here on the long bond. That's TLT. Momentum currently positive. The RSI is at 51. The MACD's got a positive cross. Our own Momentum Time Pro. Again, eight consecutive daily buy signals. Look, if you want to trade right alongside us, grab those links in the description below. Use your coupon codes for your free 30-day trial because when we look at our machine positioning, we can see that we are modeling them long as well. And we're going to get another trigger point at some point in the future here and that's going to be a
11:26 buy signal for a lot of our subscribers. And you could be one of those, too. Now, let's check out the price chart here because this changes everything. Now, on the one-year chart, you can see overhead resistance clearly up here at 9227, but let's start to zoom in. What do you have? It's trading right below a six-month volume profile. But from a moving average perspective, what you're seeing is a rising 21day. That's in red. You can see the 50-day bottoming out. That's in green. So, if it pulls back here, which I think is likely to happen, and you get a positive cross against that 50-day moving average. It's a massively bullish signal. We could just look back in the last six months, and we could see it happen right here, and price took off. But let's zoom in. What do we see at the 90-day window? Price above that. So you can see buying
12:12 support underneath that particularly where that red line is. You can see it on the 30-day window. And let's move into the 10day. And what do you can see? It's sitting right on it. So the bullish narrative for bonds is very clear here. Not only do you have volume support under the price charts, you also have machines buying. You have some law changes coming that the big commercial banks could be buyers as well. But the big one of all, foreign central banks are cutting. The Fed could cut as soon as July. Now, for me, I like to stage in a trade over multiple positions over several days. We'll see how this plays out, but I'm going to be looking to trade this in pretty soon. And I wanted you to see it in another trade that everybody is short on. That's the dollar. I think there's a huge upside potential on this one at some point. Let's take a look at UUP. And you can trade this in a lot of different ways,
12:58 whether it's long the dollar or short another currency. But what you see is momentum is negative. The RSI now under 39. Solid negative cross on the MACD. So technically speaking, for the last 21 days, not only has the trend been down, but you've seen the technical indicators have validated that. How about machine positioning? We're modeling a fairly short position, but not a max short. Let's take a look at the price chart so you can see the potential opportunity here, but also what could be a wrecking ball for gold. Let's zoom out now to the one-year chart. What do you see? There are a lot of sellers here. Now, I'm not saying this would be an opportunity today, but this is heavy on Now, I'm not saying this is an opportunity today, but you can better believe this is on my radar. Again, I've made a bunch of money trading things when momentum or machine
13:43 positioning, particularly both switch when everybody's short. Now, if it holds this level, let's zoom out to the 5-year chart. And what do you see? This has been a level of support before. So, if it holds around here, this is an initial sign. Now, I won't be looking to jump in right away, but let's now zoom into the six-month volume profile. What do you see? Again, heavy selling at that same level. So, I'm going to be looking for price to get above that, but once you have the opportunity to see it turn around, it could be again, as I've said, a wrecking ball for gold, and it could be a huge potential return. So, so far as we recap, we have gold potentially selling off. Look to be a 6 to 10% maybe even bigger correction. If you're a trader, this is something you want to look to cut your position back on. And if you're bullish, gold over the long term, look for an entry point in one of
14:30 those supply zones. But if you're looking for an amazing trade, the bond market is giving you a lot of green signals right now. And the dollar could be an incredible trade. It's going to take price to turn around. And once that happens and it squeezes out those shorts, watch for it to shoot higher. And with that, I'm Steve Meter. Thanks for watching. Thanks for being fans. Bye now.
