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0:02 Hello investors, it's Don Vandenborg, chief investment officer with River Asset Management. Today is Tuesday, March 17th. Happy St. Patty's Day and we got some green action on St. Patty's Day and I am coming to you from St. Augustine Beach, Florida with tonight's Revier Roundup daily market insight video. State of the market, we're in a mild correction. Check the trend gauge over here first. Let's go with the three time frames that we track the indexes over. Short-term using the 21-day exponential moving average, medium-term, 50-day moving average, long-term, 200 day moving average. The good news is the indexes on the long-term remain above the 200 day moving average, and the
0:48 market never gets into serious trouble unless we break that level. We've challenged it over the past week, held it each time. Another hold today. medium-term 50-day moving average. That however is a red arrow. All the indexes below that level as well as the short-term 21-day moving average. Leaders, we've got them on red because of the state of the overall market. However, we've got the green sub arrow on there as they continue to hold up very well relative to the indexes. We've uh got several starter positions in names that have held up, have uh superior fundamentals, and are showing positive relative strength, but we're not ready to put the pedal down uh with
1:35 the overall market and the geopolitical instability that we have going on impacting the market. So what happened today after bouncing Friday uh near the 200 day moving average? This is our second day up closing green and happy to see uh some tightening action in the overall indexes. That may change tomorrow as we've got uh PPI before the open and FOMC tomorrow uh at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time. Excuse me. However, FOMC 99% chance of no interest rate change and looking forward to the next meeting, 97% chance of no interest rate change.
2:23 So, uh, no cuts on the horizon. Uh, but a lot of it will have to do with the, uh, data disseminated by Fed head Jerome Powell during his statement and the follow-up press conference. see how the markets react to that. So, here are the numbers. As I said, leaders continue to outperform and you don't need to look any further than our list of 33 leaders. That's the 21 over 21 list. That's the list that I curate and the Turbo 12 list, which is what Ted and Connor curate. 21 over 21 up 73%. Turbo 12 up 1.17% combined. 20 up, three neutral, 10 down. Of the 33 names, the MAG 7 continues to show mild
3:11 relative strength, up 0.41%. The RG8, another sign of strength, up about a percent. This is our eight growth ETF composite. S&P 500, a little bit of a disappointment. There was overnight strength, especially into the open. We opened up a little less than a half percent. had a three waves down into uh lunchtime and then sideways tight into the close. S&P ended up a quarter of a percent. Equal weight S&P up a little better than a half percent. NASDAQ 100 again showing minor relative strength against the S&P up a half percent. QQQE even better up 8/10. Dow just up a tenth of a percent. Midcap's up8. Russell 2000 up 7. Global
3:56 diversified 60/40 stock bond up a quarter percent. Our flagship grow portfolio up 0.42%. Her protection up 0.17%. I do want to ask you to please like uh share and subscribe to our uh YouTube channel. As popular as it is from the feedback that we get from people, only 10% of the people that watch the videos click like. We would really like to get that number higher and we'd appreciate it if you support us in that endeavor. All right, let's get on to the charts. We'll start with the S&P 500. You can see right here coming close to the 200 day moving average on Friday, a two-day bounce. We briefly got above this in
4:43 purple line. That is the declining 8day moving average, but failed at that le level today. overhead you've got the uh 21-day declining moving average and the 50-day declining moving moving average. Let's go to a weekly chart quickly and you can see that we are trapped between the 30we or 150day and the 40we also known as the 200 day. Now these are off by uh you know a few points because one takes uh weekly closes the other takes daily closes but uh holding this this black line say it all the time that's key under the black line is where the potential for serious market corrections take place. We've studied bare markets in depth and they all take
5:30 place first with a break below the 200 day moving average. Let's go to the equal weight S&P 500 and that is further above the 200 day moving average but also below the 21 which has now cut below the 50 and it also could not clear the uh declining 8day moving average today. Let's go to the uh NASDAQ 100. Uh similar situation actually a slight close above 2/10 of a percent above the 8-day moving average rejected into the CL declining 21 above the black line the 200 day moving average and on the weekly you can see here
6:15 uh relative to the 30 and the 40we is what we're trapped in in between those are quite a bit tighter on the NASDAQ than they are on the S&P. And again, notice this relative strength line on the NASDAQ. It's been participating for the last couple of weeks, uh, outperforming, I should say, not participating, uh, for about the last two weeks since it cleared back above the 21-day moving average, but really in a lesser mode going all the way back to the beginning of February where it bottomed. uh even though we poked our head below those levels in the subsequent weeks, the relative strength line continued to go higher, which is even as ugly as a lot of the uh MAG 7
7:00 names are, those are carrying the weight uh for this minor price outperformance, sorry, minor relative strength outperformance for the NASDAQ 100. Last of the big cap indexes, Dow Jones Industrial Average, not uh doing too well, but still holding the 200 day moving average. You can also see uh ran into the declining 8day and failed as well. Let's go on to the midcaps. S&P 400 up nicely today, but again ran into the declining 8day moving average uh well above the 200 day moving average. And finally, the Russell 2000 again ran into the declining 8-day moving average above the 200 day moving average. Those are the major indexes. Let's go to some inter asset
7:46 correlation. We'll start with the VIX. VIX broke below the 21-day moving average today. Third day down on the VIX. So that's a start down uh with a 22 handle. Now we want to see this get below 20 and ideally below 19. Best case 16. That would imply a 1% ATR range on the S&P 500 on a daily basis. And that's where the S&P 500 tends to outperform 1% or below on a daily uh uh ATR. There's the VIX. How about the dollar? Uh you can see a little break out of a range two days pulling back right to the top of the range on the dollar. Very
8:33 similar setup to what bonds are doing. Let's go to uh the uh 10-year yield right now. You can see it broke out late last week, pulling back now. That's the 10-year. Also, the 30-year. Uh how about gold? GLD holding the 50-day moving average, but now has broken below the 21-day moving average, and the slope of that has rolled over. SLV looks worse under the 50-day, 21 under the 50-day. Gold and silver stocks. GDX also breaking the 50-day moving average and the 21 about to slice below the 50. Bitcoin had been showing some relative strength up slightly again today, clearing the 21-day moving average about to run into
9:20 the declining 50-day moving average. Note how it failed at that level uh back in January after poking its head above it for four sessions. So, that's our inter asset correlation. Let's go to the tail of the tape and some improvement uh big improvement actually on the stochastics both on the indexes and the RG8. They got into oversold territory and they're hooking up through their moving averages getting out of oversold territory and they've got a lot of room to move to the upside on the daily chart. uh percent of stocks against the five-day popped up into that 80 range early in the session before pulling back uh to 67 and 69 respectively for the S&P and the NASDAQ
10:05 100. Uh news as I mentioned FOMC tomorrow PPI also have Micron earnings after hours tomorrow that's a big one as those memory names have been clear leaders Thursday we've got jobless claims key coming into today S&P 8 declining eight I talked about that across the board uh most of the indexes ran into it closed below it exception for the uh NASDAQ 100 with a slight close above the declining 8 EMA and and then we're trapped between the 150day and the 200 day moving average on the NASDAQ uh the S&P and also the Russell 2000 but it actually the Russell 2000 slightly cleared uh its 30week moving average uh VIX still above the above 20 that should
10:54 be an upward red arrow here let's uh replace that it is above 20 all right day count second day up after bouncing at the 200 on Friday or holding the 200, I should say, bouncing on Monday, 13 days below both the declining 8day and 21-day moving average on the S&P 500. Uh S&P ATR still elevated. It's moderating. It's been between 1.3 and 1.4 for about two weeks right now. We really want to see that starting to compress uh similar to the action we've seen over the past two days. Uh sector strength today, oils bounced, solar, uh cloud software, semiconductors and transports to the downside, gold, silver, gold and silver stocks, staples,
11:41 utilities and healthcare portfolio changes. Uh NBIS big leader has been getting extended two gaps higher on positive news of contracts that it signed. Did a secondary uh down hard today. We took that advant we took advantage of that pullback to get a starter position uh in growction measured against the uh 8day moving average and we added to net as it bounced perfectly off the 8day moving average and also had a 60-minute stochastic cross. So volatility adjusted beta 68 for rotction 2.09% volatility uh sorry rebar that is rever estimated balance at risk. You can see the portfolio holdings above Turbo two
12:29 buys BE and SI and stopped on Intel 0.52 volatility adjusted beta 1.84% balance at risk for Turbo. There's the holdings uh for Turbo as well. Bottom line, day two bounce in tight action. Leaders continue to act fine. FOMC tomorrow. PPI as well, but FOMC uh and the reaction to the market is uh what we'll be concerned about more. Wednesday's keys, same as today, the indexes against the 8, the 150, the 200, and the VIX against 20. Let's take a look at some charts. We'll go through the portfolios and we'll start off with
13:16 uh growction and the five positions that we have in here. Starting off with Fastly and see uh one of our trading mechanisms is we know that leaders in a good market this hasn't been a good market but Fastly certainly acting as a leader since it's earnings gap up riding this purple line the 8day exponential moving average uh and we're just in the position riding that higher undercut it today but as you want to see buyers came in at that level uh and it closed up 6%. Circle acting in a very very similar manner up 5.15% riding that 8day exponential moving
14:01 average higher. Cloudflare uh very clear relative strength winner uh riding the 8day higher cleared the 200 day moving average. Nice gentle pullback below average volume and bounced perfectly off of that 8day moving average today. Let's go to the 60-minute chart and I'll turn on stochastics to show what I'm talking about right here. Over got oversold uh into a support level, the 8day moving average uh held it, bounced nicely off of that level. So that's why uh that was the catalyst for taking that entry today. uh and VRT started this yesterday riding
14:46 the 8 EMA higher and NBIS you can see the big two gaps on there that I was talking about the gap down today uh very heavy volume that's typical when you announce an offering uh but we size this against the 8day exponential moving average that'll be our stop uh if uh it gets supported and leaders should uh great and we can add to it if not this is a very nice uh cup base that it's forming uh and uh clear leadership. Great sales growth. Uh that is uh all uh everything that we own is in the 2121 uh for grow. Let's go to turboction now.
15:33 First stopped on Intel. Sometimes they just don't work folks. Yesterday was uh started out very strong. Uh there's an Nvidia conference going on right now, but it reversed and broke the stacked moving averages today. No problem. Cut it without asking any questions. Move on to the next trade. If you can eliminate any large loss from your portfolio, you are more than halfway there to being a successful investor. So stopped on Intel, started BE Bloom Energy. Nice tight action against the eight and the 21-day moving average with the 50 right below it for support. This is in turboction and SI too thin for grow not too thin for turbo. Very nice gap up. There was a
16:20 story here uh today. Relative strength confirming the move and that's a very nice breakout above that 60 level. Terbo also continues to own TER, which is pulling back in a nice light volume manner. Bounced at the 50-day, struggling a little bit to get above the eight and the 21. We'd like to see it clear that 300 level. Uh and uh that's it. Those are the four that Turbo owns. They also own Fastly and I already showed that chart. So uh that is going to wrap it. As always, like to hear from you. My email is donreverierasset.com. The phone is 855real wealth. That's 8557325932.
17:06 Our flagship portfolio grow and its more aggressive cousin Turboction are designed to grow assets during uptrends and protect them during downtrends. And we've been more in protect mode with our volatility adjusted beta below a one because of the way we've pierced below the 21 and 50-day moving averages as well as now the 100 day or 30 week. We continue to hold that 200 day moving average. Very key level. And that will wrap it for Tuesday, March 17th. This is Don Vandenborg with River Asset Management telling it like it is. It's not how much you make in the market, it's how much you can keep. And have a
17:53 great day and thanks for listening.
