0:00 Welcome to the cricket betting podcast. I'm Ed Hawkins. This is the ultimate betting guide to the first Ashes Test. And this ultimate betting guide to that first ashes test is brought to you by 7bet.co.uk. A fresh sports betting brand that offers such features as early payout, bet builder, betting insights, a boost, and more. Go to sevenbet.co.uk and experience worldclass betting yourself. And it's very simple to link to these next two worldass betters. It's Paul Krishna Mercy. Hello Paul. >> Hi Ed. Looking forward to Ash's week at long last. >> Certainly am. And actually going off script coming straight back to you as I say hello to Richard man of
0:46 sportinglife.com. Hello Richard. >> Hello. Uh >> I mean let's get some pointers. The most important points. How the hell do you stay up all night Paul? What's your trick? >> Um, gins singh. Korean gins singh. Perfectly healthy, perfectly legal, keeps you on the ball. >> Trust me. >> Can I just add at this moment? I'm a father who very rarely offers to do the the milk feed in the middle of the night and then come the winter, Australian cricket, particularly the ashes, suddenly it's 2:00, it's 4:00. I'm happy to do this one. I'm happy to do this one. Um she's never she doesn't even know her husband is in the next couple of weeks. >> There you go. Uh Jin saying I mean um
1:33 borrow borrow if you haven't got one. Um I mean I'm on going to be on the hot chocolate and amorto. >> So those are the most important pointers. Um what other pointers have we got on the first test Ashes preview show? Well, we've got the best bets at the end of the show. So you mustn't miss those. they are for the first Ashes test. We've got team news, we've got pitch report, we've got inplay strategies, we've got trades, we've got the player win rates for first and second innings are basically going to have angles galore on this test. And I'll predict now. I think we're pretty confident about uh this first test, but let's have a quick reminder on what Paul and Rich said in last week's episode, which was the ultimate betting guide to
2:18 the ashes theories series outright check for the Australia 8-365 hillsa England 23- 10 bet Fred draw nines 365 hills boils betway AK bets. Paul, remind us of your prediction and whether Hazlewood absence um impacts that. I mean, presumably it doesn't change your mind. It bolsters you, doesn't it? >> It reinforces it. Um so um so worth saying here, you know, this is the difficulty with only having five points to spend on the best bets. You don't get all your bets in right now. I have written a a previous day for Sporting Life which I will post in the free Telegram channel as soon as we've finished so you'll see the full lot. But
3:04 what I've done my in best bets I put in a 22 draw which is now 9 and a half to one on bare um but I've also backed to return the same. I had a point on um 3-1 England at 16 to1 uh which I think get a little bit bigger than that on bet. I think it's about 18.5 on there. Personally, I think England's are underrated. I think we're going to be a close series, but I I think their value um I think this is the best time to back them because Perfect's ideal and the Hazlewood absence just reinforces that. you know, we're playing we're taking them on when the Aussies are without Cington and Hazlewood. >> Yeah. A reminder, by the way, to join
3:50 those Telegram channels. Paul mentioned the free Telegram betting channel. You can get subbed up to that in the comments below. We also have a VIP channel, which is very important for this Ashes uh series. We'll be placing in play bets throughout the Ashes series and we've done a lot of prep work for that um across all kinds of markets and angles. So do get subbed up to that as well. We are in profit. You also get access to the VIP chat room with more bets um from other subscribers. Uh Richard um any changes from you? Where are you at? >> Yeah, a little bit. I mean, I put Australia up 3-1 and I'm I am still in the Australia camp, but there's no doubt now the Hazlewood injury and and the one
4:36 we knew about Pat Cummings, it's definitely given England a real chance in in Perth, particularly if the ball first and they chase, which I like to do, and we've had a look at that pitch, haven't we, today, and it does look green at the moment. I have to say, just backing up what Paul said, those correct score marks, drawn series, whichever way you want to do, there's there's plenty of money on the bare exchange at the moment. It's really good to see uh and there's lots of value on there. So, I know a few of our subscribers have been wanting more exchange bets and that is the place to go. My view is actually if you fancy Australia and you're looking at correct score markets, you can maybe just sit tight now and if England do start well in Perth, that then might be the time where you get some real value about Australia. Don't forget they came from 1 nil down against India last last year to win that series. They were
5:22 thumped in Perth. Uh, and I've seen a bit of Pat Cummings in practice today and he's absolutely flying. I'd be staggered if he didn't make the second game, much to my surprise. Um, so Australia, even if they go one down, they're definitely not out of it. Uh, yeah, on that point, Rich, I did a piece of betting. Bet Fair series preview and I think what is true at the start of the series will not be true at the end. This is going to be topsyturvy. The odds are going to flip. I can absolutely see a team coming from behind. Yeah, >> to take the spoils. And it could be that England get out the blocks very very quickly, but then Australia grind them down and Australia have injury problems at the start of the series. England could well have injury problems by the end of it. An awful lot is going to
6:09 happen in six weeks and an awful lot is going to change in six weeks. For the record, I'm I'm on 32 the pair and also 22 draw. So, let's begin. The first test starts Friday 0 to30 live on TNT. Perth Stadium, the venue. Australia 45 Coral and Lad Brooks. England 6 to4 generally the draw is 12 to1. Um generally Australia I'm going to get your views rich on teams then we'll do a pitch report. I've got Kawaja Weather Labane Smith Head Webster or Green Kerry Stark Boland Lion and Dog it. That is the pick of what we think Australia are going to go with, not what I think they should go
6:55 with. Richard views. >> Yeah, I think you're exactly right. I suspect Green will get the nod to bat at six because he bowled well in the recent Sheffield Shield game. He's been their man. I feel a bit for Bo Webster actually. I thought he's done really well since he's come in. But Green clearly is their man. And I think they need a specialist opener mainly because you want Labin batting at three. That's his position along with Smith. He's he's just about your best player. So, don't buy him out of position. Um, other possible one is Michael Nie has been called in as a late call up for Hazlewood and I suspect he'll carry the drinks. But having a look at that pitch and look, we are way out a few days out yet. But it does look green and Nissa would be would be ideal on there and he would add add depth to the batting because we I'll talk a little bit about
7:40 Nissa later but with Cummings gone your Starks up to eight and it's quite a long tail that whereas England really do bat deep and I do wonder if they look at Niss I think he's got five first class hundreds he's a he's pretty much a proper allrounder now so I would be giving that some consideration myself >> uh needs a cracking player absolutely England crawly Ducket, Pope, Root, Brookke Stokes Smith Atkinson Cars Wood, and Archer. No Bashier, we think. Uh, and probably Basher behind J Jacks now in in the running. Uh, is it a mistake to have no spin? Rich Line has a very good record on this ground, but we've seen the lush green surface. Um,
8:26 and the whole Bashier being out of contention, does it impact betting thoughts at all for the series? A little bit actually. A little bit for me. I think it's a negative for England because I do think you want a spinner um in any series really. And look, you watched him in that Lions game and he was just getting pumped. I mean, Ollie quote played really well, but it was just step it stuff really against Bashier. It's pretty sad to see. I can't believe it's done him a lot of good looking towards the rest of the series. I think Jax could well play and bat eight here. Give them some depth. Um I'm not sure whether Mark Wood will be risk. The only thing I'd say about picking Jax as a part-time spinner and he can bowl but I think you end up then bowling Joe Root more than you probably want to do. And if he gets to a lot of overs that
9:11 will affect his batting. It's done that in the past. And in a series where England really need his runs and there are some question marks over rooting Australia asking him to do a lot of bowling I think is a real negative. I I would be staying away from that. They need runs to make [clears throat] root to make runs if they're going to win the series. And if he bowls a lot of overs that that could count against him. >> All righty. Uh Paul last five years Australia played six tests without Hazelwood and Cummings and they won five of them. Are you going to put any story in that stat? Uh I mean I think it's a little bit misleading actually because three of those wins were in Asia and they were playing at least two spinners in those uh three lion and Kunaman and uh Murphy played in another one I think.
9:58 Um don't we don't want to get bogged down in that. I mean that I'm just trying to bolster your um England bet. I think there >> I no I wouldn't read too much into it. I mean, you know, each match is different. The context, the opposition, the conditions. This is Perth. There's no question to lose two world class pace bowlers in Perth is a negative. There's no question about that. Plus, I mean, we know that they've been a great test side throughout this recent period. They're going to have won most of the games they've played. And as you say, in those games, three of those games, they played two spinners anyway. So, no, I wouldn't read anything into that. >> Righty. Uh, prepare yourself, Paul, for um ground bets and and what have you.
10:44 I'm going to come to you now, haven't given you some stats. We've had five tests at the Octus Stadium in Perth. This isn't the Wacka. The Wacker's um just a first class ground now in Sheffield Shield. Um the new venue is actually the second bounciest surface in the world. Um according to those analysts the 394 is the average scoreing first. All five matches have been won by the team batting first. England love to bowl first. Uh Stokes and McCull are obsessed with that. Do they break their tradition with that toss bias? 44.9 first innings average
11:29 uh per wicket. Uh 22 in the second, rising again to 42 in the third. That's um rarely down to what India did last time. And then that down to 19th in the fourth inning. So we see decline and we normally expect a Perth wicket to crack and break up because of the heat out there in Western Australia, but does look very green at the moment. Last summer, India won uh with a score of 150 batting first. Australia 104238 all out. India made 487 in the third, which explains that big jump in the averages I just gave you. Um Paul, market spots on the pitch, on the stats, what you've seen on the socials, under total match runs, just talk to me.
12:15 >> Well, there's no lineup yet for under total match runs. um five matches here, 60% of them were under 1,000 runs. So, and that's going to be the case throughout the series, I think. Although I would add that this isn't a I think this this pitch holds up. I mean, you saw um India get 487 in the third last time and West Indies get 333 in the fourth one. So, wait and see with that. Um 30% of first innings were under 200. So if it is green, that's probably where the value is. I'm really confident um that the uh par line will be too high in the first innings. Uh the stats say it should be around 280. I expect it'll be 330 especially if Australia bat first.
13:02 So definitely an under situation. >> Uh test match finish ways to play Paul. I mean we are we are expecting ball to dominate, aren't we? uh you know and certainly I know it's very far out but that pitch does look >> um a clear pointer as to how Australia going to play this test series. They're going to produce green tops and going to try to take out um England's aggressive batting as a factor and perhaps expose they haven't picked uh seam and swing bowlers. >> Yeah. And again um throughout I think that day four's value for the finish three out [snorts] of five matches finished on day four evening that's a 9 to2 chance I would
13:48 rather back all of day four at 13 to 10 with seven bet and bet Fred or if you bet the three um different options per session with bet Fred it's five it pays basically the same I mean in theory if it's a green top it could be even earlier you know 14 to one day three evening but I'd prefer to just go for all all day day four. >> Okay. I mean, Rich, there is a lovely sort of subplot here, isn't there, with with um England basically turning up with their fastest pace attack of all time uh to play on Australia wickets which were in position 10 years ago. It's I mean it's it's it's ironic isn't it that if they had broad and on these
14:36 pitches and importantly we got to mention the cooker ball as well which has got an extra layer of lacquer. It now is a more pronounced uh seam because they've put a um layer of um plastic underneath so it protrudes and it holds um for longer having have England actually made a major error in not recognizing the switch in these Australia pitchers. The study samples are pretty chunky now. the batting averages in terms of per wicket and innings averages they over the last 10 years have completely collapsed. >> Yeah, I think you're right. For the last 18 months, all we've heard about is pace
15:21 battery, pace battering that they've picked that style of bowler and then suddenly you just look at the squad selection actually. They picked Matthew Pots. You know, he isn't going to play in Perth, but he was completely out of contention all summer. Even in the white ball stuff, couldn't get a look in at the back end. And then suddenly they've picked pot works went down injured of course. Uh and they've been caught shot. I mean James Anderson was was renowned for being a grumpy fast bowler. I suspect he's very grumpy right now because you know four years ago eight years ago this would have been absolutely ideal for him. Um so yeah I think England probably caught short here and suddenly you're looking at people like Nissa Hazelwood absolutely ideal for these con conditions really. Um that is where I worry about England. I've said it all along. I think the conditions based particularly with the
16:07 bat and Australia will look at that and reckon they've got the more skill for bowling attack and that can get at England's dynamic batting lineup that is is better on flat pitches. >> Yeah, England have got a stinker in them very early in play Ash's hot spot from extreme uners at some stage in this series. It'd be very surprised if they don't get rolled on something green. Um, right. 0% margin feature at Seven Bet Sports. I've got to tell you about it. Uh, the 0% margin feature at SevenB is designed to offer betting odds that do not include the typical margin added by the bookmakers. Check out more of their features on sevenbet.co.ukfeatures. And come straight back to Richard man and ask you the easiest question of all on this episode. What happens in Perth,
16:54 Richard? And who wins the test match? Oh, I probably would stick with Australia, but I'm not desperate for a bet in the m match market right now. I expect fireworks on day one. 17 wickets day one for the India test last year. It could be carnage and I reckon if England bat first, they could be in trouble even against a weekend batting line. What I would say is trading could be brilliant on that first day if you want to bet contrary. I mean, what price were India when they were 150 all out last year? What price were they when they were 73 for six in that first innings and they went on and won by nearly 300 runs by the way. Um so that would be my way rather than just just take a strong view on the match market. Um I think England would want to chase. Um so whether Australia try and put England in that'll
17:39 be interesting. Um personally look I'll lay my cards on the table already. Bet 365 off an interesting side market. Well, no 50 in the match. In the first innings, both sides is 12 to1. But I'd rather do both. So, no, no, England 501 first innings 10 to1. No Australian first innings 50 14 to one. And I I'd have a few quid on that. Um, split stakes. England obviously more likely, but if Australia gets chucked in and the top order fails, you'd hope you'd get a good run for your money for from at least one of them, wouldn't you? I mean, last year both first innings for the India game. No 50s. I think Nitishkuma already made 41 and Mitchell Stark made 26. So you would, you know, he'd have been quidden last year.
18:25 >> Uh same question to Paul and just thinking six to four England. If you're not backing odds against England on a green top with no Cummings or Hazlewood, you ain't backing them at all, are you this winter? No, but I I would prefer to take the longer term bets on the series, but absolutely I couldn't bet Australia at those prices. Um, look, I mean, I agree that as the series goes on, it may well swing back to Australia, right? And they may well be better suited on the other grounds, but as you say, it's the second bounciest pitch in in the world, Perf. It is still a pace bowler's paradise. And look at how this Australia lineup have struggled against good pace bowlers. Shamar Joseph, Air Jamal, all three Indian pace
19:13 bowlers in Perth last year. In the last ashes, Mark Wood turned it around as much as anybody else in the last three tests. So really, this is a golden opportunity for England and I think they'll take it. >> Boomer, a man of the match in that India test that we've been talking about. By the way, let's remind you we've got the best bets still to come. Uh we've got uh player win rates. We've got uh trade strategies from Paul. Uh but now time for our Ashes in play hot spots. What have you got for Perth, Richard? If anything, you can just tell me to move on. >> No, sorry. Sorry to to hold you up, but I've got a couple. Look, I'm quite keen on Briden Cass having a good series on the whole with the B, but you know, 13 test innings, he's hit 12 sixes. can definitely bat
20:00 and I will be talking about him later but hits a long ball when he if he comes in he could be a decent price to to just hit one. Um I'm thinking particularly when spins on me sharp boundaries at Perth is a big strong boy hits down the go. So keep an eye on that and there are other markets as well but I think in running um that's one. The other thing about England's top order the more extreme conditions the harder they tend to go. Leads last year 53 for N against India off 9.3 overs. Edge Boston 33 for three um off 10 overs and still scored pretty quickly. Lords 35 for N of 10. Manchester 51 for N of 10.1 over terrible conditions. You remember it did all sorts yet there were 50 of 6.6 overs in the in these are all first innings from that India series. They tend to go
20:47 harder the more extreme conditions. Looking at that pitch looks quite extreme. I reckon England will come out flashy and all guns blazing. The line's currently around 38 39, but I suspect in running when it looks green that line might come down thinking England are going to struggle and they may well lose wickets, but they'll go down swinging. I think they'll cover the line in the first 10 overs of their first innings. >> Paul, I will come back to you straight after this question for your trade strategy just to remind people about that. But any other Ash's inplay hotspots before we go to that? Well, actually, it's kind of it's not entirely contradictory to what Rich is saying, but I think it could go wrong for them both early on. I think that certainly in in this this match and I
21:34 think throughout the series I'm going to be inclined to go unders at the start of the innings before the before it even starts because I think the lines are probably too high and I think that the top orders are the vulnerable bit for both sides especially against the new ball but in both cases I think they're more than capable of turning it around with a middle order. I think England in particular, their best batsman are four onwards. Um, and Australia as well, you know, I quite like Green. I like Kerry a lot. Um, if Nissa plays, Nissa is very capable style. It's not a mug with a bat. So, they could turn it around, but I'd be more inclined to go unders at start and then turn it around if once it's gone in
22:21 my favor, if you like. >> Okay, Paul. just remind folks of the Paul Christian Mercy trademarked um test match trade strategy. I was going to call it the infamous Baz ball trade strategy, but I mean it works for most uh test teams, doesn't it? Just uh give us a reminder about how we do these. >> Yep. So, this is in every single test match where the favorite starts at 1.5 or bigger. So, we didn't do it last week unfortunately in the India game. Um and what you do is you take the after the toss the price on the the two results double it. So for example if a team is 2.5 we take that as 1.5 to one we double
23:06 the 1.5 to three so it becomes a 3:1 chance and you back both teams to return the both results to return the same amount. So, if you imagine they were both six to four, start with 2.5, you'd put an order in uh at 3:1 on both results to return the same. Um, and what that means is if you get both matched, you're usually betting slightly odds on on a result. If the outsider uh gets matched and the favorite wins easily, you've just had a fairly cheap loser. And the only real bad result is generally if like um the outsider wins very easily, but that's very rare. But anyway, it's paid dividends for several
23:52 years now consistently. And I will I know that sounds quite complicated reading that out. I will uh I always uh will put the bets in the free Telegram channel after the toss exactly where the the orders are placed. >> There you go. And yeah, Paul will be I'm not going to say he's going to be on hand for every single hour of every single session throughout the Ashes test because I don't think there's enough Jins Sen in the world, Paul. But if Paul spots a trade, then it'll be going straight into the VIP channel. So, you want to get subbed up for that. Let's look at player markets. Now, we will have a check on win rates for the second innings because we think we found some value there in play. We're going to start with Australia top bat in the first innings and a little bit of ground form you ground form for you. Labashane
24:39 three tons and 150 in eight innings. Smith has a double ton. The two year win rates for you. Kawaja 17% you're getting five to one generally. Generally Labashane 20% so 92 spreadx MGM boil sporting and virgin bet Smith 11% is a very very low number particularly for a 3 to one chance so we'll be swerving him head 22% you're getting 92 365 Webster 47% but seven games only so it's not a fair study sample nines spreadex sporting Kerry has just well one win in that
25:25 two-year study. So he's going off 11 to1 I think given the issues with Kawaja and head in technique and form uh the price on Smith which is dreadful value and Lavishane's ground form and domestic form. Uh that would stand out to me. Richard, who do you like? I mean it doesn't have to be a tops market with a batter. It can be milestones >> and no I think Labashane's a man to beat a lot of money to post for the series but here I would would prefer lower down this India test last last year that we keep referring back to numbers eight and number nine won the two first innings top batsman marks Stark was one of them um he's 50 to1 top Australia first in his batsman he made 68 68 not out I
26:11 think it was against South Africa at the whacka way back in 2012 so he definitely has form with the bat in Western Australia. Out of a doubt on him at 50s because he'll probably bat number eight and look strange things have happened. And I would I mentioned him earlier. I would back Michael Nissa. This 40s we bet 365. If they decide to play him he will bat eight. Um he's better than a 40 to1 chance. You know really good first class record with a bat. You only have to ask Morgan fans probably won't play but it stakes return. So those would be the two here I would chance my arm at big prices. Stark two wins in the last two years on top bats. That's one in the first innings and one in the second 18 tests. Um so certainly no mug. Um Paul,
26:59 who do you like? >> Well, I agree that Labashane is the one to beat. Um I'm anti quite a lot of these Aussie top orders, but that strategy is kind of tied up in my under runs betting on them. So I'm simply going to say Alice Kerry all day long. Firstly, I want to back middle order. Secondly, he's been in great form consistently. So I like 11 to1 for top bat in the first innings. But even better than that is top sixes to hit the most sixes for Australia. He is 11 to1 to hit the most sixes in the first innings and 17-2 in the match. Look at his average over the past 30 games in uh um long form cricket and test cricket.
27:44 He tops the list for both in this Australia side uh and quite comfortably compared to most of them. >> Do we have a consensus that Travis headed short if this green top is zipping about? >> We do. I do. >> I do as well. I yeah I don't want to say his looks run out but when he even when he was making all those runs you watched him batt and you thought criy how's he doing it with that technique then suddenly the world's the world's ended for him >> it probably isn't the end but I would definitely be against him >> righty Australia bowlers to follow I mentioned Nathan L having a good record here 29 wickets in five the pitch doesn't look like it's going to suit him this time though 26 in five um first innings Win rates for you 22% stark 18% lion
28:32 boland well even money but it's only four tests 9 to4 stark but MGM boil virgin bet reset Boland is stand out of threes with boil sports lion 16 to5 generally uh I mean I think Boland is an absolutely fantastic bowler um but uh what does Richard think >> no I I've No real strong view. I mean, Dogit looks a good bowler to me. Looks really easy pace. I think he'll suit Perth. I think he'd do well on debut if he does get the nod and he's fought one with boils. That that's maybe a smidging too big, but you could go anywhere here. I I think with Dogget coming in and the fact I'm talking him up tells me I think Australia do have some a couple of strong replacements in Boland and Dogget
29:19 and that's why I think they've been more than competitive. >> Yeah. Do Dogit looks like he's going to shape that ball away very on action. Yeah, >> Bowland nipping it back in. Um, we mentioned LBW for route next dismissal. It wouldn't be great if those two are bowling together. I' rather have Stark and Bowling with the crease for that bet. Um, a pull. >> Um, it's reflected in the odds so I'm not going to bet it, but I do really like Mitchell Star. Great record against England. 97 wickets in 22 Ash's tests. I think he's going to have I think he's absolutely critical to their chances. Um I think I would prefer though if I was going to bet on him to do player
30:04 performance 126.5 with live score because he can bat and that's not asking that much to get 27 runs and you need five wickets or even 47 need. >> Let's move on to top England first innings bat. Uh win rates for you two years. Corey 25% 13-2 general root 22% that's certainly an uptick uptick and in the last few years 72 Sky Bet power bet fair sports book but no joy in terms of win rate versus price Brook and Pope both 17% win rates gets a 7-2 quote Pope goes off at 13 to2 you're getting around about 4% in your favor with Pope and he's in form a big fat zero for Ben
30:50 Stokes on top bat win rates in the last two years. Uh and then the real value is Jamie Smith 27% win rate and you can get 10 spreadex sporting um Richard Smith Crawley or Pope. >> Well, a couple of these actually. Uh look to start with bride and car 66 to1. I'm just continuing with the the lower order theme. Uh I really do think cars can can give it a real whack. Um, so I would definitely look out for him. The only concern is if I want Bashier and Wood to play really and cast to B. If Jackson Atinson play, Castle gets shunted down. So I wouldn't be having the bet yet. I'd wait until England name the team. They always do it early. Um,
31:36 just the the market won't catch up, so you may as well just do wait and see. Then um Cass is actually interested England most sixes in the first innings at 22s. I mean he could even win that with a couple against Nathan Lion towards the end. Um but the two I two other bets I really like with Bway and and 365 do this as well but Betwe are better prices. Jamie Smith most falls in the MAC 28 to one could easily win that with Betwe a couple of counter counterattacking knocks there and Cwley a lot I'm against the openers generally but Zack Cwley most falls in the match 40 to1 with Bway going to be opening the batting a real good player against pace and P should suit him actually this this is his sort of pitch if he can get through that new ball I just think
32:22 they're they're two wild prices I mean if you like Poland you're in favor of England um and those are two players will be suited by conditions. I thought they were massive prices. >> Paulie could well have a um good series. Could be a bit of a balter. Not many people expecting him, but he could >> he could surprise a few. Um Paul >> ought to be Jamie Smith for me. Um same reason. Got to look down the order. I think could be a low score. He's rock solid anyway, even in good pitches, let alone low scoring situations. I would also add I mean I agree with Kabak pass but if we're going down that road then Mark Wood's no mug >> yeah I >> won before in one nationals isn't he?
33:08 Yeah, Hedinley as well. You think back to Hedinley two years ago, he came in and and that's what they asked him and trying to put myself in the match scenario and say for instance England 1207 or something after lunch and struggling and then they brought lion on to give the seams a breather and it's a straight here at Perth. You don't really want to be hitting to the leg side. Sixes especially someone like Wood or Cass could just get after him for a couple of overs before he gets them out and that could win particularly the sixes market. Mhm. >> Uh, one win in his last six would that second. There you go. >> There's a lot of darts here, isn't there? We've got a lot of nice big price darts here to throw. >> Mina. Yes. Yes. >> Maybe not Luke Little darts, but we
33:55 we'll see. [clears throat] >> Um, England top first things bowl. I mean, I think this will be a short discuss discussion. Atkinson 31% win rate. And then a problem for England is basically just not being able to get these bowlers on on the pitch. Of course, I've just mentioned Wood. Archer has played twice in uh two years. So, we've got no win rates there at all. Archer's strike rate is 62. He's going off as short as 11 to four. Wood is 3 to1. You can get threes um on Atco Atinson. Res bet AK bets Rich and then Paul please on bowlers if you've got anything to add. >> No bet for me. They're all they're too short for me. I'm only dealing in big prices this week. >> Uh Paul, >> yeah, I don't think there's any value in the market at all. Really very
34:41 difficult. >> Okay, let's let's continue with some um big price darts. I think we can certainly consider big bets second innings. So third and fourth. Um Australia Kerry has an 11% win rate. So if we're getting anything up towards that 11 to1 again, uh all is well, but no shorter than 15-2. We've mentioned this before on the podcast that Root is Mr. Reliable in the second innings, winning 30% of the time. Um players who will perhaps not do so well second time around, Po Pope and Smith. Um real drop offs in their um averages
35:27 46 to9 for Pope and Smith has an 18 run gap. Uh Rich, final thoughts on player markets and potentially bets third and fourth innings. >> Yeah, I just mentioned the the inplay one last week with the Nathan Lion bowling and and a couple of England batsmen namely Cwley Brooke potentially Smith getting stumped. I don't think it will be applicable in the first innings really because it'll be seen but second innings if they're batting days three and four lion will have to do a lot of bowling keep in mind that that next method to dismissal individual players stumped Crawley Brooks Smith have probably been my three >> well um the one other bet on the player market side I think solid is selling is going unders on Ben ducket under 28.5
36:12 you know you guys have already said that you don't think his batting style is particularly well suited to um Australia and he's been in bad form for months, you know. Uh so I definitely like that. Um and just on the second innings um well again you've got to go for big prices in hope it will be a low score but as I say I mean there's some contrary evidence there that West India 33 must have been a huge price. I would imagine that par in that was 200 to start uh and India in 487 last year. So maybe this is an extreme over situation in the second innings. >> All righty. Um, another special offer to tell you about crickstats.ai. If you want to use the best cricket betting data, you can get a
37:00 bit of a discount on their subservice. Use the code pod 25. We all use it. And it's a system really you can't or service really you can't really go without uh if you're taking this thing seriously. Final thoughts for the cricket betting podcast ultimate guide to the first Ash's test please before we go to best bets and very very quickly one thing that does or doesn't happen Richard >> Harry Brookke doesn't have a good game in Perth >> okay and Paul one thing that does or doesn't happen um you stunned me there um not many runs in the first innings let no one's going to reach 300 in the first innings Uh, one thing that does happen is um a quick
37:48 bowler [snorts] wins top bowler. >> You could seven bet special offer. Another one bet10 get a10 free bet with the promo code WFB10 on your first deposit. Minimum10 state £10 free bet minimum odds evens maximum winnings £100 5day expiry bonus T's and C's apply. It is time for the best bets for the first Ash's test from Perth. Uh Paul Christian Merty, you get the honors to go first. >> Okay. So, we will have two points risk on Australia to score under 300 in the first innings. I'll have 1.5 points on a day four finish. That's at 13 to 10 with
38:35 seven bet and bet Fred. And then I'll have three halfp point bets on Alex Kerry. So 11 to1 on him being the top first innings run scorer. That's with bet 365 with spread x. Half a point 11 to1 on most Australia sixes in the first innings. 11 to1 bet 365 and half a point 17-2 most Australia sixes in the match. and Richard man >> a few here but one point no England at 50 in the first innings at 10 to1 bet 365 and a point no Australia 50 first innings at 14 to1 bet 365 at half a point Mikuel Stark top Australia first innings bat at 50s bet Freds and boil sports and half a point Michael Nissa
39:21 top Australia first innings bat at 40 to1 bet 365 half a point bride cast top England first innings batsman at 66 to1 that's with bet thread and also A half a point bride and cast most England sixes in the first innings at 22 to1 bet 365 then half a point Jamie falls Jamie falls Jamie Smith most falls in the match at 28 to1 betway and Zack Cwley got that one right most falls in the match at 40 to1 bet and that's half a point >> that's absolutely crazy bonkers price alert a great spot from Richard man this has been the cricket betting podcast and your ultimate betting guide to the first Ashes test. Go back and have a listen to
40:08 the ultimate guide to the Ashes series from us that was posted last week. There's still loads of stuff in there and get your pens and papers ready because we got inplay hotspots again from that episode. Loads of content, loads of stats, loads of good advice for the biggest series of them all. We're going to be here throughout the series. Don't forget to sub up to that VIP channel to get the play best inplay bets straight into your phone or inbox as these games get underway. We will be back at some stage next week depending on when this first Ash's test finishes hopefully inside four days as Paul has alluded to. We'll see you next time on the cricket betting podcast.
