0:01 Welcome to the cricket betting podcast. I'm Ed Hawkins. This is the podcast which tells you exactly what happens in the T20 World Cup. This is the ultimate betting guide to the 2020 World Cup. We win you money on cricket. Our VIP channel has a return on investment of 8%. Sub up in the comments section below and get 50% off your first subscription. Tips straight to your phone and device every single day for all the live matches taking place. Our best bets, which are free, are on this podcast. They are up for 2026 at 47.5 and returned massive profits last year as well. So when we tell you what happens, we absolutely mean it. Paul
0:48 Christianity, best bets plus 29.29. 29 this year. Winners at 11 to8 nines 18th last week. Absolutely insane services. This is Paul. Are you ready for the World Cup? >> Certainly am. I mean this is a real real bus this tournament. I mean multiple games per day. That's a brilliant thing. More angles than usual, more markets than usual. And I think critically for those of us who like to play runs more liquidity on the exchanges and in addition to that I mean I really enjoy India now enjoy cricket in India just because we've built up such experience on these grounds over the years in the IPL rich manporting.com
1:34 plus 17.60 for 2026 wins at 5 to 65-2 last week. Uh, Richard, one golden rule for this tournament, please. >> Well, following on from what Paul said, I think it's got to be extreme runs really. Um, you only have to look at the 2025 IPL. We had some monster scores. The recent India series is again to South Africa, New Zealand, some big scores as well. I think India and South Africa, they'd be the two powerhouse batting sides I'm looking at. I won't be surprised if we got a 300. Genuinely, I think it could happen uh if the cards fall right for one of those two batting lineups. Interesting what Paul said about grounds as well. I mean, I'm a big big big Bash fan as listeners will know and that's because built up such a
2:20 knowledge of the grounds, but I feel like like what Paul said, we're getting that in India now as well. So hopefully it'll stand us in goodstead. >> Now talking of the ground guide, the allimportant Paul Krishna patented ground guide comes up on this show. the betting highlights from the venues. On this show, we also reveal the winner of the T20 World Cup and the runner up, plus how the tournament works, which is very, very important. The ground guide, as I said, your team rankings, your possible 11s, player win rates, and team strategies. We're doing the top uh nine I think it is um of the teams because obviously we've um had to siphon off the teams which we don't think are going to
3:06 threaten the outright market. So the top nine in the betting. Um all you need for this show is your ears and a pen of paper because the stats trends and strategies are coming thick and fast. We've also got the top associate players to follow on top bowler top bat. We've dug those out for you as well so we're not forgetting the associate teams. But we're going to start with the outright. Here we go. It's India 7 to five AK bets. Australia fives with the same. England 11-2 generally South Africa 6 365 Fred Boils bet Victor AK bets the Kiwis at 14s. Pakistan at 16s with bet Fred 40 to1. Windies with Bet Fred. Afghanistan the same with the same plus
3:51 Sky Bet and Power Sri Lanka 40 to1 generally then we get to Ireland 500 to one and bar the rest. Um we're going to talk about some of these teams in a bit of course in depth. Um Richard there will be blood. We said it in last week's show. Where is a shock coming from? There will be a shock I'm sure of it. um a sort of a best of the rest question if you will. >> Well, I mean just today actually um the United States have played India A um but it was a I mean as you would expect it was a strong India A um and both teams to score 200 United States made 200 in reply. They didn't win the game but I still thought that was a mighty effort. I think they're a dangerous outfit. Uh and and
4:38 just looking at the prices you mentioned as well, I do think West Indies are an awfully big price. Look, we'll get on to them later and I know the Super Eight projections puts them up against it, but they've got pedigree in this competition. I think they're a big price for Wendy's. >> Paul, a shot coming. You highlighted a fixture potentially or maybe just a team that might do something. >> Well, I was going to say I was going to end up on saying the one has to be America to beat Pakistan, but Rich's already done that. So, I'd say more broadly Pakistan are vulnerable, right? I mean I think all the three minnows in that group are capable in extreme circumstances of beating them and with all of the politics and distraction for Pakistan they've got there's got to be a
5:23 chance something happens there. I'd also say in group B you know laugh if you if you feel free but Australia could go wrong against Ireland or Zimbabwe. These games are in Sri Lanka. Could be low scoring. Could be, you know, could be a big toss by somewhere. Ireland or Zimbabwe could plausibly pull off an upset in that game at a huge price. >> Yeah. And well, Sri Lanka, I mean, that might go off about two to one against the Australians. Um I'm not sure we're going to see though um a repeat of the conditions that Australia struggled with in Pakistan ac across the tournament but certainly in Sri Lanka. Um we're going to talk about how the format works and that is really really important. That's the main thing to get
6:10 to grips with but we're going to we're actually going to start off with a slightly different tap this time on the cricket betting show and it's full disclosure. Our VIP channel as I mentioned which you can sub up to in the comments below is going very nicely indeed and we have already put up our VIP bet for this tournament. It went up at lunchtime today as we record and it was England to reach the final at 5 to2 with Price Up and Star Sports. I'm going to explain a bit more behind that bet, the science if you like. And that's all drawn in with this how this tournament works. So we've got 20 teams in four groups at the initial group stage. The
6:56 top two from each of those groups go through to the super eight and there are two super eight groups. The initial group phase is group A, B, C and D. Group A, we've got India, Pakistan, USA, Netherlands, and Namibia. Now, Pakistan boycotting their game against India are almost um well, they're up against it already with a without a ball bow because the points will go to India. Group B, Sri Lanka, Australia, Ireland, Zimbabwe, Aman. Group C, England, Wendy, Scotland, Nepal, Italy. Group D, Kiwis, South Africa, Afghanistan. Group of death if you like. Canada and UAE no mugs by the way after getting some decent experience in the ILT20 some of those boys. Now this is the important
7:41 bit. No matter where teams finish to qualify in that first group phase to qualify they are seeded. So the super eight groups are already projected and if the form book holds they're going to look like this. India, Australia, South Africa, West Indies in Super 8 group one. In super eight group two, it's England, New Zealand, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. So just say for the sake of argument, if England have a disaster and don't qualify with Scotland finishing second, Scotland will go into that super group, super eight group two. If India finished second in group A, they still go to group one in the super eights. I
8:30 think that's pretty clear. Uh but let's talk about England. We've mentioned Pakistan up against it. Vulnerable against Netherlands, USA, Namibia. If Pakistan don't qualify, they can't get points against India. Netherlands, USA, Namibia very live chance now. Well, an increased chance now of getting into that super group, super eight group with England and England only have to finish in the top two of that group. England, New Zealand, Pakistan with an asterisk by the name and Sri Lanka who they have well dominated. Um Paul, you want to explain why we're keen on England in terms of bat and ball? I mean
9:16 that's the that's the science and the political machinations done. >> Yeah. So yeah in on top of that you have the fact that if you look at the long-term T20 records of these eight sides or nine sides there's quite a big gulf really between India, Australia, England at the top but South Africa as well to some extent and the rest right and England are avoiding three the other three big guns. So they're clearly the favorites in those group. Even if it is the best possible lineup, they're the favorites, right? Secondly, look at the nature of this tournament. Look at what happens in India. We're expecting huge runs. You're not going to win this tournament without getting well beyond 200 regularly.
10:03 And frankly, England have just got a lot more muscle with a bat than these other sides. there's really exception of India, Australia and South Africa. I don't see anyone who can really compete. So you've got to on that on that basis all those things considered expect they're going to reach the semi-finals and at that stage we've got 5-2 the worst thing that could happen is we get unlucky and we draw India and they're still 5 to2 but if they play anyone else they're going to be even money you know worse ways 11 to 10 possibly odds on. Yeah, there you go. Paul talking about batting power. Number two, England ranked on cumulative strike rate in all matches since the last World Cup. India number one, of course, but England the only team getting close to India in terms of batting power. Rich, there is
10:49 consensus among the cricket betting podcast crew on this bet, isn't there? >> There is, especially over the last week. It's not always the case, but they actually look really settled. A far cry from the ashes, different format, of course. Fearsome opening pair. I mean, might well be as destructive as any opening pair in the competition. They've got experience as well. I mean, Butler's so experienced. Brooks a world beater in the making, particularly against the white ball. And look, Curran and Banton in that middle order, and I do hope Banton keeps his place. I'm a big fan of both. They've dominated franchise competitions around the world. Think of the IL20, the the Big Bash. Um, so the batting has got so much going for it. Rasheed's probably the best spinner in the tournament. um Adel Rashid. I'd have him above Rashid Khn. Now I think Dawson's a lovely foil for him by the
11:36 way as well. A defensive bowler. Um and then Archer gives him real pace and I wouldn't discount Sam Cohen with the ball as well. Very canny you know he's got a man of the match in a World Cup T20 finally in Australia a few years back. Tick a lot of boxes but more than anything I just like how settled they are. You can name the you're 11 now if everyone's fit and yet you look at some of the other teams. I mean where's Australia's starting 11? Who knows? Um I think England have got an awful lot going for them, not least the draw which has obviously fallen nicely into place. >> Draw is very nice indeed and those possible 11s that Richard mentioned. We've had a go at England very easy as he said. Australia not did struggle with Australia picking this 11. I always say it on this show, don't I? If you're struggling to pick your 11, that is a
12:21 bit of a claxon going off. um in terms of win percentages since that last T20 World Cup. And by the way, all our stats for this show in terms of player win rates, trends, and what have you, they are all taken since the end of the last T20 World Cup as early as June 2024. India win rate uh percentage is bonkers, 82%. Australia not far behind on 71% but losing 3-0 to Pakistan has dented that. England not far off at all, 67%. the Kiwis next best at 59%. We'll talk about the Kiwis in a bit. Um, but there we go. We we've talked about England's uh value there on a charge to the final. Let's go to Paul Christian
13:07 Merty for the painted ground guide and what are the betting highlights, Paul? >> Okay, so eight rounds in total. We're only going to really bother with seven because the Cinn League sports grounds total guess work. All the form is really old. Um so first of all we'll start in Sri Lanka. The standout uners ground of the tournament. I mean really this is the underground by a huge distance is the premodash stadium. So in 12 matches there in a 5year sample only three first innings reached 160. No, nothing 180 or more and eight out of 12 were 140 or under 140 which is nothing like any other ground of competition. 10 out of 12 matches were under 10 sixes. Again,
13:52 nothing like anywhere else. And in addition to that is a 102 chaser bias in those 12 games. U the other ground in um Sri Lanka is the Palle Candy which has seen that in the England series. This is a decent ground for high scores albeit not in the same league as the India grounds which we're going to get to now. So five grounds in India. Let's rank these one to five at the bottom. So again stand out of the bottom easily the lowest scoring ground out of five is Chennai. Um three out of four matches there produced fewer than 15 sixes. Two out of three first innings sub 180. Um there's an 115 bias to the chasers in
14:38 the last two years there. One thing I would say here though is that these low scores come later in the competition when the the the conditions slow up right we've seen this in the IPL year after year. Number four and this says something about how high scoring the others are is Mumbai. Mumbai is a big scoring ground, small ground, very high sixes. Uh 40% first innings 200 plus last two years. Um but the pitch is a bit mixed there. Sometimes it's good for bowlers early on. Big angle here is betting late runs, betting overs in the second half of the innings. You can probably go at 11, 12 and over after the 10th over there. Third place a metabad which is become
15:23 super reliable for overs. Um 200 par is definitely above 200 maybe 205 and six is around 18.519 I would say average second Kolkata Eden Gardens old ground too small for the modern game potentially huge sixes the runs line is well above 200 205 210 and you would expect more than 20 sixes on average there and number um is Delhi again old ground too small um six out of the last 13 first innings here were 220 or more so the par is like 218 217 24 of the last 25 first innings
16:12 here were 160 plus and one final angle about uh Delhi is there's a 103 defender bias in the last two years >> lovely stuff I did say you needed a pen and paper, didn't I? We're going to be revisiting all these angles from all those grounds throughout the tournament on that VIP channel. You got to get subbed up if you want to keep making money on this tournament. We're going to do it. Um, let's get some teams on. Fab stuff, Paul. Um, we're going to look at the top nine in the betting. As I said, we've got nuggets for some of these teams as well and trends. We're going to go in reverse price order. So we do start with Sri Lanka 40-1 generally joint hosts of course 11 to4 for a
16:57 semi-final birth of bet MGM virgin bet 14 to1 to make the final with 365 uh a 41% win rate uh on batting power they are rank ranked eighth out of ninth and bowling economy is much better at number four they more than triple their chances of winning in terms of win loss ratio batting Second just 0.3 win loss ratio batting first possible 11 Nanka Mashara Cusul Rasanaka Asalanka Shanaka Leonage Asaranga well large madano or Chamira that injury to Malinga is unfortunate for him means he's almost certainly out of the tournament Patana
17:43 the death bowler Paul Sri Lanka looked a poor team against England you called it they're going to try and win a traditional matches. Uh but an easier Super Eight if they can get out of uh their group. Yeah, I think so. And they should get out of the group. Um it's not certainty, but they're at home. They they have odds on to beat Zimbabwe and Ireland at home. They could well beat Australia. Um you know, look, they're not they're a second division side. Uh you we've seen that in this series against England. Quite quite a big class golf really, but they're still a decent player, decent side who can put a decent 11 together. The openers are very good. Hasaranga is
18:29 a world-class spinner. Hathorana if he gets it going. He's a superb def bowler and they're in the easier group. So I don't think you can write them off. And there's, you know, if you want a long shot bet, I think 40 to1 each way is not terrible. And I think it's four to one to win the group out there. That's not terrible. >> Yeah, a good trade team. I think Sri Lanka um batting first because of what they can do in the power play with those those front are absolutely loaded up top with the Sanka, Mashar, and Kusel. That's their strength. Um and we've seen in that England series the England price uh drifting when Nissan all get going in that power play. Richard chances.
19:15 >> I just I just don't think they have the batting power. I mean, you your numbers said it at the top, didn't they? Um, look, we talking about winning the com, you know, they'll get out of the group and I I just think this tournament is going to be won by teams who are capable of scoring 220, 230, 240, maybe 250. And I just don't think they are capable of doing that. And actually, and I've been a bit surprised by this, the bowling hasn't looked great on the flat pitches at Palake Kelly either. I thought he would have shown up a bit better, but Hassarango taken to the cleaners by Brooke. Um, I just think however far they progress, ultimately they're going to be outgunned. >> Uh, have you got a nugget for Sri Lanka Paul? I mean, I've already done a sort of a bit of a trade angle, but anything else to add? >> Well, I'm just going to say I um I think that I would be really into Pam Nisanka
20:04 top bat against the lesser teams. He strikes me as very reliable against lesser opposition. >> Rich, another >> Yeah. Well, I can jump on with that because so um it's nice to see Shana Kak and playing well. He generally goes off tens, twelves, he's got an insane record in the top batsman market long term. He generally just wins one every now and then more than everyone in 10 anyway. And and generally against the better size when the top order find it difficult. So very handy finisher. I suspect he'll win the top batsman market once in this tournament and more than pay his way. >> He only needs to win once. Who are your win rates to follow here on the tops for Sri Lanka? Well, Paul's mentioned it. Nanka winning 34% of the time in all matches since the last World Cup. These
20:51 are big study samples. Um, so we've got good numbers behind these players and Chamira 33%. bizarrely can't seem to get into this Sri Lanka team as the most reliable wicket taker but keep an eye on him when he does come in you're going to be getting well at least 7 to2 um maybe as big as fours next up Afghanistan 40 to1 to win with bet Fred 11 to four virgin bet MGM make a semifinal 11's baller final if they make it to the super eights they go into group two with England New Zealand and Pakistan done a win percentage rate of 57% a batting rank of nine bowling economy
21:36 number one uh they are much better they are much better batting first than second the win ratio trebles first to second possible 11 for you Gerbazadran atal rasuli moai nib nabi rashid majjib no and farooqi rich big prices about Afghanistan we've spoken about them in IC events We've been keen on them. We think they're a 50 over team. No, >> we do. I'm just not a believer in this format. Um especially if pitches are good for runs. I think they've had better chances than this actually in IC events. The thing thing about it, I look at this team and and I don't think it's any better this Afghanistan team than it was four or five years ago. It's essentially the same players. But then you look at the opposition we're going to get to. Those big guns have all
22:23 progressed, made giant strides. I mean the game India's playing now and and South African I just think Afghanistan are where they were four years ago. I just can't believe they're good enough to win it now. >> Ball chances for the Afghans. >> Yeah, I agree. I agree with Rich really. I mean look, I like Afghanistan a lot. I've liked them a lot over the years, but they haven't really progressed. And interesting statistic, uh last five years against the top eight sides, they've won 11, lost 23 in this format. And if you look at where they're playing, they're usually playing in the golf, which is basically a home game for them. So, it doesn't strike for me. And you know, as Rich was saying, you look before like this tournament, you want teams that are going to get you 220s, 230s. They don't look up to it. I mean, there
23:09 is an argument to be had, and we'll probably discuss this with other teams. Do you want um a bowling in a high-scoring match? Do you want to focus on the bowling quality or batting quality? I personally think batting quality is more important, but if we're wrong, then they would have a chance. >> Um, your top bat and bowler win rates coming up in a second. But other ways to play Rich and then Paul again. >> Yeah, I didn't have a lot. I just as soon as I get near favoritism for for individual games, I'd be keen to take them on. But nowhere else in play views, >> Paul, >> not a lot either. I was looking I've seen Nabi generally goes off a decent price in the middle order. >> Okay. Top bat and bowler win rates are
23:55 Zadran very reliable 35% for your bat and Rashid Khan making a surprise entry actually. He's not actually been that reliable on win rate down the years but 38% of the time since the last World Cup. So has really come to the four and living up to his reputation there. And that's not often we've been able to say that about Rashi Khan. Thank you very much guys. We are uh doing team guide in reverse price order. So we've still got a winner and runner up still to be named from Paul and Richard. We've got the West Indies next. Twice winners of this competition. 12 to1 generally to make the final. 40 to1 with Bet Fred to win it. 13 to4 bet MGM Virgin bet for a semifinal birth.
24:42 Um they're going to have to use one of Australia in South Africa to make the semi-finals probably in that Super Eight group. Uh 33% win rate, lowest of the top nine. They are ranked for batting and bowling power at six and seven possible 11. Hope King Peter Chase Pal Shephard Holder Akil Moti Ford Shamar and as we said so many times before that batting order will change guaranteed. Paul sum up West Indies. >> Well, Rich mentions before as a kind of a lively outsider and I I agree. I mean, I note that one big angle in this tournament is that, you know, the grounds there's a big differential in some of these grounds and scoring. All seven of their games up to a semi-final
25:27 are on highscoring grounds. I think that suits them. They have got power galore. Um there is a scenario where Hope builds a nice platform and then you leave it to Powell and Rutherford and Shephard at the end and they go absolutely berserk and hit big scores and if they do that they can beat the likes of Australia or South Africa in one game and you know I'm not predicting this will happen but it's a big price and you being in that better group might actually help them in a perverse way because all the rest could cut each other up and you could end up sneaking through somehow, right? Just win two close games. So, I wouldn't put someone off playing at a big price. >> Uh Richard,
26:13 >> yeah, I'm I'm of the same view. I was looking earlier. I think there were 50s on the bet fair which changed. They've been 70s over the weekend. It wouldn't surprise me if Drift wants us there more money up there. Um but the batting is just so dangerous if conditions are good. Het me flying which is key. Hope is class. Rutherford outstanding in the SA20. and they bat deep. The bowling's okay, but actually when you look through a lot of these sides, you'd say the batting's their stronger suits. So, the West Indies are alone in that fact. They're going to rely on hitting big scores. I think Sammy as coach is key twice a World Cup winning captain. I think they're definitely on the up. If this tournament was to blow open and we do get a big price winner, who were capable of doing that and you'd definitely say this side. I think that recent series with South Africa, I know they lost it, but it was high scoring.
26:59 Made made made 200 twice against South Africa. I think that's a strong piece of form. South Africa 13-2, and I've have no issues with that. We'll get on to them in a minute. West Indies, what 50 60 on the exchange by the off. I mean, it's very tempting. Best ways to play West Indies. Uh Paul, I mean, I I've got a note about just taking them on taking on their bowlers um defending any sort of score of more than 200. Yeah. Yeah. Go along with that. And I mean I think it's overs galore in those games, highscoring games. They, you know, they they'll concede a lot. They'll score a lot. And also, I mean, certainly in the Mumbai games, late runs, you know, if you've got Powell and Ratherford and Shepherd at the death end, it could do anything.
27:45 >> Richard Man, >> exactly what Paul said. Big scars, lay runs. >> All right. your players to follow for the West Indies I hope with a win rate of 28% and with the ball it's Shepard 31% Astric by his name didn't even bowl in their last game against South Africa so and hadn't bowled his full quote in the previous two I mean that is a bit of a warning claxon for me in terms of West Indies and their thinking why have they not recognized yet that Mario Shepard's by far and away the most prolific bowler I can't really work it out Um, a reminder then to sub up to that VIP channel in the comments section below. There's a 50% off offer running right now. Already had a 10 to one winner this month. It's only the
28:31 second day of the month. We made 17 points clear in January. So, get involved with that. Next team is Pakistan. 16s with TripleA and Bet Victor to win it. Impressive against Australia, but they're already points down in terms of boycotting that India game. Will they get out of a group including India, Netherlands, Namibia, USA? The 57% win rate is not too shabby. They're ranked number two for bowling. They are ranked number seven for batting. Paul, how costly is the India boycott going to be? >> Brain damage, isn't it? It's like just a sort of known unknown that you don't like to throw him, but all the recent evidence suggests it's going to be bad. I mean they haven't performed in big
29:18 tournaments. It's not that I don't like the side. I think they're an improving side. I think they're very well balanced. They got loads of good all rounders and spin but it's a massive massive distraction. You can't help but think that a couple of weeks in they might want to go home. >> Um uh Richard give me your views on Pakistan. I'm conscious I've not given you their possible 11 but let me hear from Richard first. Yeah, well much better than I expected against Australia. All by albeit in conditions that they were well suited to. I think semi up at the top is is key. Did us a few favors last week, but you know if he gets them off to a quick start, they can make good scores because I think Baba he'll get runs but he will slow them down in the middle. They've been crying out for a worldass spinner
30:04 and Abra has been absolutely fantastic. So, they've got that box ticked, but as Paul said, this the offfield stuff is just a huge negative. You've just got to have great sympathy with them. It's not the players fault, is it? Um, but you just cannot help. I mean, a World Cup in India. I mean, God help them really. I I think they're up against it for through no fault of their own. >> Dark Arts, we haven't mentioned um yet on this show, but Pakistan cannot possibly um win anything India. Uh, I've been saying that for about 20 years. Rody, possible 11 for you. I did promise. Um, let me go for the openers first. Uh, Farhan actually lost his place to [ __ ] as a man in that last game against Australia, but Fan is very hit
30:51 and miss. I think Pakistan know that. So, Farhan and Ayab opening the batting. As Salamman Agret number three, Babra four, Usman Khan five, uh Shadab Khan six, Nwad seven, um Fahim Ashraf always making appearance as well that last time out against Australia at number eight and then Abra Ahmed Nasim Sha 910 and Shaheen Shahidi are actually bit be batting higher than those two completing uh your possible 11. Um other angles on Pakistan guys. Paul >> the only thing that really strikes me is I do like the most sixes market and back in one of those openers. I prefer
31:38 Farhand generally but I was also fantastic record hitting sixes and I just think they're overpriced and we had a he did he lost he didn't win any last week farand so maybe his odds will drift a little bit. >> Yes he was going off a bit short wasn't he? Um Rich, we've done sort of shocks, we've highlighted Pakistan, why they're vulnerable. Anything else to add on them? >> Well, we were keen on saying Maya, weren't we in a player performance markets last week? Um obviously his line's going to go up after a little bit of success. The key to him is he's he's playing as an all rounder when he's bowling. So just look at those teams when they're playing against left left-handed opening batsman. That's when he'll bowl as the right arm off spinner. Good chance of picking up wickets in the power play when when he's against the lefty. So that's probably when I'd be playing.
32:24 >> Uh player win rates in terms of uh your top bat and your top bowler. Well, I mean, Muhammad Noaz, I think he's the top wicket taker in the last 12 months um in T20 with 44 wickets and taking a wicket every 12.6 balls. So it won't surprise you to know that he's winning top bowler. I think it's about sort of 27% of the time. I've just momentarily mislaid my uh stats on Pakistan. Here we go. Uh yeah, Muhammad Naz winning 24% of the time, seven wins in 29. As I said, these study samples are really nice and chunky. Now, and your top bowl, it's not huge amount to go on actually. Baba Razam 26.6%. Um Salaba 16% but has been promoted to
33:13 number three, which is interesting. Maybe some firms might make a mistake there. Um, where are we? We have four teams down. So, we'll take the opportunity to have a brief interlude to remind us that there are associate teams in this T20 World Cup. Uh, pens and papers at the ready because we're picking out the top three batters on win rates uh for the associate teams. And really good numbers here. I'm most likely to use these against fellow associate teams. Not quite so sure that um the former will hide against the big boys but Muhammad Wasim the UAE opener 40%. fantastic record. Jatine Singh for Oman winning at the same rate 40% and Brian Bennett probably would go with him
34:00 actually against some of the bigger teams because he has done it consistently against tougher opposition 36% by the way we've got a bowler um when we look at the associate teams bowling markets to follow with a massive 52% win rate from 17 matches. So let's get back to the team guide. This is the bit where we say New Zealand run races again. 11-2 Star priced up for the final three to four MGM and bet uh Virgin Bet for a semifinal. Could that be the price of the tournament? Uh fourth best win rate on 59% ranked number four and six on bat and ball respectively. This is their 11. It's evolution rather than revolution.
34:48 Allan Seaffort Rainda Chapman Phillips Mitchell Bracewell Satma Sodi, Duffy, and Henry. I like this 11. Paul, it's a likable side for sure. It's solid, but I've got problems with them. I think firstly, this is a super hard group. I mean, um, Afghanistan not going to be a pushover for New Zealand's at all. I think South Africa a very good side. Um, it does suit them that most of their games are on lowcoring grounds because they're not ideally suited to the high scoring stuff, but I don't think they're certain to scare. Also add that UAE who are one of the better minnows for sure in that group. I could see things going
35:34 wrong for them. And look, that group, that Super Eight group, what we're looking at, we're looking at England for sure. Pakistan we've got a big question mark over Sri Lanka we think would get into it and probably New Zealand right that's what the form would say if they're playing Sri Lanka away that's a 50/50 game for me so I'd avoid them even I understand I mean I generally think they're overpriced but I think there's a lot that could go wrong >> Rich you've been very negative about them because we talk about big boy power but Allan and Cifa are absolute fire starters up top have they evolved Just in time. >> Finally. Finally. I'm pleased Fin Allen got the gig. Um, yeah, they just needed
36:21 to catch up, didn't they? And they've done that. I do hope he starts though. I mean, it's I wouldn't say it's a certainty that they don't go with Deon Conway. Um, which would just be incredible. >> Well, your Claxton's just going off then, isn't it, with New Zealand if they do that? >> Yeah, I really rule them out. >> Yeah, I really hope they don't. But I'm with Paul. I just I just worry that I think it's a good side. We always say that, but I just look at the other batting lineups and I think are the stronger batting lineups in the competition and there are and then you think of one and two and three and four and there's there's probably four or five batting lineups that are stronger, more powerful once we get to the latter stages and that's the issue and I think that's where they'll come up short. >> Have you got a nugget on New Zealand Paul? >> Just to back Glenn Phillips wherever you can top back, man of the match,
37:08 >> Rich. >> Yeah. Well, just on that, I mean, we're looking for the individual um team top batsman markets. We'll obviously be updating, but Philillips firmly on my radar. I think it's a big tournament for him. The other one, just game by game, Mickey Santa, he just wins in his turn. He generally goes off 25s, 33s, and he I think he won against the West Indies and I think he was a winner against India recently as well. So again, if you just stick with him, he'll pay his way. A top bowler and bat bets to follow. Really good numbers here from Duffy. 40% of the time and Tim Se at 38% of the time. You are getting value on your win rates on those markets guaranteed. Bat and bowler respectively. South Africa next. They are the runners up last time. Managed to lose to India, didn't they, from that
37:55 such a solid winning uh position with Clson going well, but it was close but no cigar. 6 to1 to win it 3:1 365 and Hills for a final. The win rate is only 38% though in all matches since that last World Cup. They are bottom on bowling economy and they're only number five on batting power. Why is everybody raving about South Africa? Why are they four favorites to win this competition? They got no numbers at all to back them up. Then I'll give you the possible 11. Deck Mark Rickleton Brevis Stubs Jason Smith, Lind Bosch, Yansen, Maharaj, Roberta. That is why Rich, where you at with South Africa? >> Yeah, I'm a believer again. and I have
38:42 been for a while and then they're a prelim pre preliminary squad didn't film with excitement but I think Rickleton and Stubs coming back in Darzi and Ferrer I mean Ferrer is a bit of a loss but I think Darzi for Rickleton or Stubs I think things have worked out for them well there is like a new signing coming back into international cricket and boy he's been outstanding since his return uh and then you just look at the recent SA20 I mean Brevis just he's got the world at his feet stubs won Sunrise as a final with a brilliant run chase. Um, and I think the bowling's pretty good. Rabada, you look, he's going under the radar, but you look at his recent numbers, he's bowling really well, and to me, he's landing them Yorkers perfectly. They've got good spin. Final
39:28 thing I I'd add, I obviously like them. The captaincy I think is going to be really important and not really talked about enough in this World Cup. So, England have got Harry Brooke. It does concern me a little bit. India had great success in white ball formats but that was all with Rowit Sharma now now someone else has got to take that on it's big pressure for for for a home nation whereas you look at Markham he's been around South Africa's recent success um cool guy obviously won them the world test final done really well captaining in the SA 20 I think for me he's the best captain in the competition I think that's a big tick in the favor in a high pressure tournament >> uh Paul you you've been keen on South Africa for a across most formats actually, but they've got a very tough route to the
40:15 semi-final. >> That's the negative. That is the negative. I mean, if they didn't have that, I'd be all over South Africa for this tournament. Um, I really like everything about this side. And it's I think their record since the World Cup is not that great, but I think that is also disguised a little bit by they've got as many options as India. They've just got so many players that can play and there's such churn in some of these series. But we're going to get a first choice lineup here and it's brilliant. I mean Rich just went through the batting there. Fantastic. Absolute fat power all the way. But you know also to me I think Corbyn Bosch and Marco Jansen in the middle order. Two all rounders really valuable players. Maharaj two very good economical underrated spin bowler. Um I
41:01 think they can get through the group and then yes they've got the harder group but they shouldn't fear anybody. They're they're the coming side in world cricket. >> Uh let's have a nugget, Rich. Well, you don't have to give me one, you know, but if you've got one. >> No massive runs. I think there's I said at the top these and India somewhere along the way there could be a 300. And um look, if Brevy if the [ __ ] and get him off to a good start and then Brevis takes over, bing bing bag bos 100%. That's exactly what I've got. And looking at the grounds, seven out of seven games up to the semis on highscoring grounds, uh they're going to be they could well get the 250 pluses on more than one occasion.
41:48 >> Uh your players to follow, there's not much to go on in terms of study sample for DOP. He has won four of the last 10. Uh I wouldn't expect him to be winning at 40%, but I would expect him to be winning very close to 30% um over a longer study period. and a bit of nominative determinism. It's Bosch. Eight wins from 16 on your top bowler and you're going to be getting very decent odds indeed on Bosch to Bosch. Uh just a note on Rabarda, zero wins in eight. Um that sequence will not continue. Um thanks Paul, thanks Richard, the business end is approaching. A little interlude now. The top three um in the betting still to
42:34 come. Quick backtrack to those associate bowlers to follow. Pens and paper at the at the ready. These your top three bowler win rates. Let's do them in reverse order. Stu Dullah for the UAE winning 30% of the time. Kevin Klein at 40% for the Dutch. And uh a winner on the VIP for us a couple of times I think last year. Zimbab's Zimbabwe's Bradley Evans. an absolutely bonkers rate of 52.9% from 17 games. Um Paul, we're winning loads of money on best bets. Uh we normally have five units to spend. We're not doing that this week. Um normally at the end of the show, but
43:20 prices in short supply, so we're going to put those on the channel, aren't we? >> Yeah. Yes. So, we'll do best bets. Um hopefully. I mean, bookies are very slow to come out at the moment. You'd hope by Wednesday it'd all be up and we can do it, but latest Thursday. >> All right, business time. India, Australia, and England to go. England are our pick to make the final. Uh, we've put our cards on the table. They are 11-2 to win it. Generally, they're third favorites and no better than twos now to make that final after our VIP gang smashed it. Um the 5-2 price has gone 67% win rate, number two on batting
44:06 power. They are eighth out of ninth on bowling economy. We think Archer makes a difference and we know Adil Rashid certainly does make a difference in Asia. Possible 11 Salt, Butler, Bethl Brook Banton Curran Jax Overton Dawson, Archer Rashid. They are slightly better chasers by the way. Um Paul, it's obvious we like them. We think they're going to make it out the Super Eight, but do they actually win it? >> Well, I'm going to say no because there's a seven to five favorite. I think we all think it's got a massive chance, but they've got a great chance. I think they can get to the I'm confident they'll get to at least semis and have a very good chance of winning it from there. They are natural T20 side. They've got a far superior record than all the teams
44:52 they're going to play pri semis. um with all these with the big scores needed, not only have they got all that power up top, but if it goes wrong, they've actually got really solid depth there. I mean, Overton's been great finishing, hasn't he? Curran's a great finisher. And you go down, I mean, Joff Rancher, we saw in the Ashes, Joff Rancher is no mug with a bat whatsoever, and he's going to be batting at 10. So, um, and he's, and again, as you said with the bowling, I mean, he's a massive asset in T20 cricket. We've seen it in the IPL. He's a fantastic bowler at this level. So, no reason not to be confident for England at all. >> Uh Rich, I mean, you touched on the bowling. Um, you know, you can get caught up in numbers, eight eighth out of ninth on bowling economy, but you
45:38 know, we've done some stats work on Rashid, haven't we, recently in terms of what he does in Asia in this format, and he's just so reliable. It it's probably a false impression. and Archer obviously coming back um is dangerous up front. >> Yeah, I think it is the weaker suit but as I've as I've said the lots of sides in this competition probably bar India the batting is the strength and they'll hope that they can chase down 200 220 and England are no different. The two outstanding bowlers are outstanding in this format. Archer and Rasheed and and the others will just try and do their bit really. I wouldn't like I say I wouldn't under underestimate Dawson. I think he's a cany cricketer. He's not going to take loads of wickets, but he'd be a nice foil and and Curran's got previous. I think it's just about okay.
46:24 The bowling batting's great. Lots of experience. Um like Paul said, they're natural T20 side. Uh and and crucially, they've got a little bit of that momentum that word I usually hit. >> Uh best way to play otherwise, Rich, uh Paul, >> well, we've got to reach the final. Um, I would just say the golden rule of the cricket betting podcast is back Jos Butler, isn't it? Always has been. >> Yeah, he's well overdue. Jos Polar uh coming into this tournament if he hasn't won already. Um, and one from you, Richard. Well, I mean, in the franchise competitions, bookmakers were wise and stopped putting prices up. Sam current
47:10 player performance uh which was very annoying for us, but hopefully um World Cup they'll they'll offer a few prices up and he's just been so so reliable. >> We will be having player performance bets on some associates that done some work on that. Um just hope we get the right men quoted. Uh top bats to follow. Salt six wins from 17 35% wickets absolutely shared around with England and not huge study samples to go on apart from Rashid four wins from 18 22% obviously he's going to be shorter than uh well way shorter than fours um that's England down obviously said we said we're very very keen on England to do some business in this tournament uh and
47:55 perhaps they should even be ahead of Australia in the betting um with the Aussies losing badly 3-0 to Australia a 71% win rate for the Aussies though since the end of that last World Cup 7 to4 with Star and priced up to make a final. Now they are solid on your powering rankings third and fifth respectively with the bat and the ball. Um as I said earlier did have a little bit of a struggle to pick um the best 11. Um but this is what we've got. head Marsh Green English Tim David coming back into the team um we think there's no update on that hamstring injury but he's in the squad sto Maxwell Connelly
48:40 if they want to be using um an extra spinner as a foil for Zamper and then Ellis and Hazelwood Pat Cummings of course ruled out Green obviously be used as a third seamer Rich you never write off Australia in IC events but comparative T20 20, you know, they're not they've not been an outstanding T20 side, have they? >> No. Dire preparation for them as well. I mean, no Cummings. Stark's retired from this format. That hasn't been spoken about enough. Hazelwood's in the squad and we understand he's going to play later in the tournament, but he's not going to start. They'll obviously have him for the money games. Um, and then just to me some seriously out of form cricketers. I mean, Connley's record with the bat for Australia so far is horrendous. He's done more with the
49:27 ball. Maxwell terrible in the bash and as you said Tim Davy coming off the back of India. They've not got a lot of natural players against spin and that was highlighted against Pakistan. Um if they get in spinning conditions they are vulnerable. Um I'm los to rule them out because they've they generally turn it on in these IC events but my god it's just been a terrible preparation. They look a shocking price of second favorites all thing considered. >> Yeah I think that's it isn't it Paul? I mean it always comes back to price doesn't it? You just can't really argue that Australia are a wrong price in terms of you've got to back them. Is that right? >> Yeah. And the other way round. I mean they are overrated here. They can win. There's no doubt there's world class players in there. They they've got some superb batsman in that side and they
50:13 could win those big scoring games but they're too short. And you know again go back to last week against Pakistan. They were so overrated in some of those games. You had Pakistan like looking certain to post 180 plus and they were still like 1.7 1.8 as if Australia were going to chase that bat in second. Um I got big problems with them. Um I think the bowling's just going to be too expensive out there. I think they're really going to struggle at the Premadasa. Um and really they've got the harder group. I mean I can't see how look I know. Okay. Okay. South Africa got a harder group to start with, but if that is the Super Eights, I cannot see how Australia legitimately favorites against South African personally.
51:01 >> All righty. Um, let's have a nugget for Australia from Richard Mann, please. >> Well, we're blow on Trump. We've been talking about him for a while, but Marcus Stein is top Australia batsman. He got a February off to a perfect start 10 to1 winner but um he's one of the few in there who's got real real strong form at the moment and obviously got good IPL record as well so if he's going off anywhere near double figures we'll we'll have some of that I suppose just throw this back to you guys is this the team then given that they'll probably they'll probably start almost every match as odds on um favorites is this the team that we look to get beat every time they go odds on are we are we getting at them. I am personally of that view. >> Well, I mean Paul mentioned the
51:46 Primadasa there, Australia versus Ireland there, Feb 11. Australia versus Zimbabwe there, Feb 13. I think you know that Zimbabwe game with Raza um putting out all the tricks pace off on that surface as a potential um shock. Um Paul Nuggets, anything to add? Building on that, I mean, yes, absolutely happy to look to oppose them to win the match, but the run lines as well, their run lines are going to be too high. I'm just really confident of that. And again, you get to premadas, we've seen this, like, you know, 250 is a good score at the Premadasa. If Australia bat first, their pass still
52:32 going to be 290, 300 because it's Australia. So, you've just got to go unders. >> All right. uh your players to follow for Australia on top bat is Cameron Green 41.6% he uh won for us at 10 to one at the end of January on your VIP channel. Dwar who I don't actually think this is going to get into this team 54% top bowler just squeezes in from 11 games. Um there we go. But we're almost at the business end uh of this selection. We've got India to do. Um I'm just going to come to I'm just going to come to Paul Christian Merty first on India. Um because we're try we're often
53:17 trying to get um short price favorites beat, aren't we? But at what stage, Paul, do you just recognize what they're winning plus 80% of the time? Um, their batting is the best in the tournament with the ball. They've got Bulmer. They could play Varane and they could play Kep if they wanted to. They are undoubtedly for the correct price. They're not too short to they are overwhelming favorites, but I still would say that given the nature of this of the the format and also the grounds once you get into that knockout the last two games, you know, if they play for example England in the semi um
54:07 and England put 230 on, well, you wouldn't want to be on 11 to8 for the tournament. would you right because even if India are going to chase that 230 down England are going to be favorites at that point for that game so theirs would drift one way I'm going to just say uh I am I am backing them friend of the show Rod Stud long-term friend of the show uh sent me a cracking bet this morning which was live score bet MGM virgin bet we're offering 13-2 India go unbeaten through the tournament tournament. What a bet that is. What a fantastic bet. It's actually come down now. It's 19 to4, but that's still a big price. If you look at it, you you know they're not
54:52 playing Pakistan, so they're almost certainly going to win three for three in the first round. And then you're betting on winning five matches. I think the accumulator doesn't pay anything like that. And of course, what you'd hope for is just get through the uh Super Eights with three wins and then you've got 19 to four and winning the title, which would be fantastic. >> I'll give you a possible 11 for you. And uh it's difficult. It's difficult to find a a hole, but Ishan who looks likely to usurp Sanji Samson with just a tremendous run of form. So he's going to open the batting with Abishek Sharma whose record is just absolutely ridiculous. He's striking at 220 in the last 12 months. And with that sort of
55:39 number you think he probably averages only 20 24 something like that which would be absolutely fair enough. He averages almost 45 striking at 220. Uh then you've got Suramad at number three. Tillac Varmmer is coming back from injury. Rinku, Hardik, Dub, Axa, Kaldep or Varane, uh, Ashep and Bumra. Um, Rich, your thoughts on India? Well, I look, they're outstanding team obviously tick tick so many boxes. The batting, they seem to have decided that they're going to try and take the game, this format to a to a new level and they just go out every time and they're trying to hit 250, 260, aren't they? Um, and with the batting they got,
56:24 they they certainly look capable of that against New Zealand. All I would say is, and this is the format nowadays, but it is high risk, isn't it? And they could go to a semi-final and try and get 260 and get rolled out for 160 and lose the game. Um, that is the nature of the beast. But just when you're talking about an 11 to8 shot, it does put me off. The other thing that nagging doubt, I've talked about captaincy and no row. I definitely wouldn't underestimate how important that is. And then when you just look at the success that they have had at recent IC events, it has been experienced heads who have got them over the line. That last T20 World Cup final win, Kohley the batting really fell apart and it was Kohley and Axar who got them back into that game, but particularly Kohley held the innings together and then Bumro won it them won
57:11 the game with a ball. Um he's obviously here now but but Kohley's gone. Rowit's captain's gone. Ro was captain when they won the 50 Champions Trophy last year. Kale Rahul got them home. It is a younger side with less experience. Um and those champion players, albeit they needed to move on from this former out there. I'm just looking for negatives. I do think that the lighter on that legend experience um bummer really the probably the only one. Um I'm trying to pick purely on price. Uh they are ranked number one of course for um uh batting strike rate um over the last uh well was it since 30th of June 2024 since the end of that last
57:58 World Cup which of course they won um Paul Nuggets um and other ways to play. Yeah, just firstly just get back against to the price again that World Cup final when Bmer won it for them and South Africa [clears throat] needed whatever it was like 36 or 35. What price were India at that point in time? >> Yeah, probably bigger than they were at the start. >> They hit 5 to2. Yeah, I actually backed them in running to hit 5-2. Yeah, >> there you go. That that's why it makes no sense to back him short. Um, two angles. Uh first of all I would say I expect Von Kakraati will play and I think his performance is rock solid. I think everyone's going to struggle against him and I'll just say on these runs. So this is a strategy that I'm
58:46 going to be doing a lot especially on those Indian grounds which is middling pre uh pre innings. Now with the plus 200 scores expected the market goes a bit all over the place. So let's say that the paral line is 215 right you take even money or 11 to 10 20 215 you might be able to lay with India 260 at 4:1 at the same time you might be able to get like a 4050 run middle there at like 9 to 4 to 3:1 something like that I did that the other day in the New Zealand game it didn't win but it did set the bet up which is all I'm looking for is to have that middle and then with eight overs to go, five overs to go. You
59:32 know it's coming one side or the other generally and you just get out and have to savor. So that would be my plan for them. >> Uh rank number two on uh number three, sorry, on bowling economy. I think they pretty much held on to those rankings since the start of the last World Cup. So um Paul absolutely has held top batsman to follow. I've mentioned him earlier. Abashek 10 wins from 25 40% hit rate with the ball. It's Kal Deep six wins from 13 although they may well go with Von ahead of um Caldep uh potentially on spinning services of course they'll play both of them. Uh maybe want to wait for the toss and see which one is in and which one is not. Brown winning 21% of the time I think
1:00:17 more to add on India. I'm gonna see no one's lips moving on. Uh suggest >> do we think Bum will be rested at some point? He wasn't in the last T20 World Cup, but more injuries. I'm just thinking of that top bowler market you you've referenced. Try and just keep keep in mind right that this might be the game they might rest him for. Then you make your move obviously takes up such a big chunk. I just he's had so many injuries. I wonder if they'll try and mind him through the competition. Uh definitely think that's uh going to happen against a team which they're expected to beat um India uh with Bumra and and and add that thought to any um top bowler
1:01:06 coupons for tournament that you see please uh top bowler tournament and top tournament batsman. We're going to be looking at those prices and they're going to be um VIPed. to speak on that VIP channel. Get subbed up in the comments section below. We've already got a thought about a player to be following at least one of those markets. We have completed our team by team guide. Uh do get subbed up to cricstats.ai using the code pod 25. All the best cricket betting data at your fingertips. Um, all filtered to do with the book makers markets as well, such as player performance, most sixes, most fours, individual players, individual
1:01:53 teams. Really great stuff in there. Sub up to that VIP channel in the comments section below. Uh, loads of tips coming up this week as we await prices on this T20 World Cup. It starts on Saturday, of course, but we've got to the business end of the podcast. Richard and Paul are now going to name their winner and their runner up. I don't think this is going to be a particular surprise, but I suspect we do actually have consensus. Um, let's go to Paul Krishna Merty first. >> Yeah, I'll have India to beat England, >> right? India to beat England from Paul Krishna Merti and Richard Man. >> No, I am I'm going left field. I'm going
1:02:39 South Africa to beat England. I want to have a go at that short price. >> All righty. We've got Bet 365. Uh name the finalist, England versus India 15-4. Uh they go 9-2 for Richard's um South Africa India final. This has been the cricket betting podcast. We are going to be back throughout the tournament and we're going to be on the VIP channel and the free channel in those comments sections below. You really do need to get involved. As I said, more bets coming up on those channels over the next few days as we build up to the first match of the tournament. This has been the Cricket Betting Podcast and we will see you next time.
