0:00 This is the cricket betting podcast. Welcome to the unmissable betting guide to your four ashes test. I'm Ed Hawkins. Do we finally get a competitive heat? Now the ashes has burnt out. We're brought to you by 7bet.co.uk, a fresh sports betting brand that offers such features as early payout, bet builder, betting insights, a boost, and more. Go to sevenbet.co.uk and experience worldclass betting for yourself. more offers from seven bet as we go through this pod. But let's say hello to Paul Krishna Merty who is plus 41.4 on the best bets after a 10.75 point plus week last time. Hello Paul. >> Hi Ed. How are you?
0:46 >> I'm good. Um look I'm looking forward to the fourth test. I think this is going to be uh competitive. Richard man of sporting.com plus 0.29 29 but not actually as far behind Porish Mury as those numbers suggest with anti- post Post Ash's winners on their way. All right Rich. >> Yeah, Mitchell Stark. As long as he can stay fit, we'll be okay. >> All you need to do is stand up. >> Unlike Nathan Lion, actually, I I should add um we were on for a big VIP winner and then uh the old hamstring went, didn't he? God grief. 11 to1 winner for VIP was almost weighed in with Lion needing two more wickets and of course he does his hamstring. Um we've had some bad luck on injuries on VIP uh Telegram
1:33 channel but we're still in profit so get subscribed to that in the comments below. Uh we've got the Christmas Day Night Test which is from the MCG. We're going to tell you exactly what happens. Can England hit back? Will there be a different side without pressure? I suspect so. Do you think so, Paul? >> Well, look, I can see the logic and I can see that Australia could take their foot off the pedal and England were better in the third test than the two previous ones. But to be honest, they're entitled to be demoralized. They've been terrible. Um I'm not really convinced that out of form players are suddenly
2:19 going to come good. I mean how many times we've seen in Australia it just gets worse and worse uh for the visiting side and the fundamental weaknesses are still there. The lack of a spinner the fact that pace bowlers are tiring. So I'm not from an England perspective I'm not brooming with optimism. Uh Richard man, if I said to you a month ago that Cummings would play only one test of five, Lion would play twice and then you know go off with a hamstring uh in the fourth. Hazel would not play any part at all. How many points would you have had on an England series win as well? I'd also told you they had a 100 run lead effectively with nine wickets left in Perth in the third. How many
3:05 points? Look, I I was pro Australia, but you're right about that that Perth game. I mean, that the whole series turned on that second session of day two. England were in control. I know how different it could have been. You do wonder, don't you? Um, but ultimately, whoever whatever England have thrown at Australia in terms of tactics, approach, and whatever Australia have had in their disposal in terms of players, fit available players. Australia have done the basics well. They've played smart and England have not and and that's why it's 3-0 sadly and such a shame because we we wanted to go into Christmas with a with a contest, didn't we? And we thought we'd get it and we haven't. Yeah, this is really about 5n now or not. 11 to 10 AK bets 4 to1 Australia is
3:53 11 to four generally. 3-2 Australia 16s uh general. Paul, what's the final score? >> It's 5-0 I think. But in all honesty, I mean, it's way way too the odds are too short when you think how likely it is that these games will swing around in running. And in all honesty, with that in mind, I'd lay it at those prices hoping it would drift. >> Uh Rich, >> yeah, probably exactly the same. I still have belief England can come off somewhere. And I I do think what you're saying has logic about the pressure off now. They've had chances. He's amazing actually because you talk about McCullum talks about him being not a technique coach, a coach about mental and getting players ready for big moments and
4:38 relaxed and and free to play the best cricket. And yet when they've had these moments, when this relaxed approach and pressure off is supposedly going to work, they've not taken any of them and that's why they've lost the series because they have been in the games, you kind of wonder actually what he's doing because what he is doing isn't working. Um, but then they have been competitive. Even when Jamie Smith was going great guns in Adelaide, you look, they were still heavy second favorites, but they had a chance and they just couldn't grasp that moment. Uh, yeah. And it's also interesting, and I don't want to go on too long about this, but um, as soon as a contest is over, particularly an Ashes series, and England have lost, all the all the reasons or excuses start coming out very very early in terms of England's setup. They've got um they're switching bowling
5:25 coaches um halfway through this series. Souy was the bowling coach. Sika came in. Sou is coming back. There's no fielding coach. There's no wicket keeper coach. There some of the things that you would like to know before a ball is bowled or before you start betting on it certainly. Um what is on the show then? Let's get on with it. Pitch report, team news, in place strategies, player win rates, and loads more for that fourth test. going to tell you exactly what happens. We've got a decent record on this uh Ashes series so far. So we do start with match odds for the fourth test 2330 mcg Christmas day 1 to2 Australia 3658 lads coral England 5 to2 365 lads coral draw 10 to1 unibet boils triple 8 I'm
6:11 going to give you some possible teams get rich's views on these Australia I think this is what they're going to do kawaja head lavishane Smith coming back in if he's fit again from vertigo although that does go on and it's a nasty thing head Green Kerry Nissa in for Cummings has basically said he doesn't really fancy risking his back. Stark Boland we think Lion's going to miss out so Kunaman's going to come in. England Crawley duck it Bethle for Pope whose career is almost certainly over. Root Brook Stokes Smith J Archer um I think they might have to have another look at somebody other than Bride and Carson top wicket taker but he's been all over the place. It's ridiculous that he's got the most
6:56 wickets. So, Atkinson or Pots for him and then tongue. Um, pretty close, Rich. >> Yeah, I think you're about right with England. Um, another stock have have actually been rested, but I hope and I think they'll they'll keep going with him. The Atkinson pot's interesting. I personally think they need just a almost an old style line and length bowler, and I'd like to see Matt Fisher get a go. he was called up as a replacement for for for Mark Wood. Um but I suspect they'll they'll go with how you've gone. I expect Atinson will actually come back in. Uh Paul, just a view on that. We've got Smith back in, but if he doesn't make it, you've got Weatherord opening the batting Kawaja um in the middle order. That does look quite a weak
7:42 Australia batting lineup. And it did look a weak Australia batting lineup in Adelaide. actually was 38 for6 England took in that third innings. >> I mean I I think it's been a it is a weak Australia batting lineup. I think that I don't think that Australia's batsman have won this series. It's our terrible batting and their excellent bowling. Um personally I would put Bo Webster in. I think he's got to get a game somewhere. He's done really well in the few matches he's played, so he deserves a game somewhere. Um, and you know, look, even if it is weak, there's still a lot of tormentors in there. A lot of players who have given England a hard time. I mean, even Kawaja, Kawaja was okay in that match, right? I mean, he's
8:28 not the player he was, but he's still competitive. Um, and you'd add, even without the bowling, look, we don't know Matthew Kunaman. Our English backs don't know Matthew Kudman. He we don't play spin well. He could well do something. And yes, no Cummings, but there was no Cummings in the first two tests either. And if we're And Scott Boland absolutely destroyed England the last time they've played in Melbourne. So I don't I'm not too negative about it. All right. Your 0% margin feature at 7B Sportsbook is a feature which is designed to offer betting odds that do not include the typical margin added by the bookmaker. Check out more of their features on 7bet.co.uk/features. So let's get on with that pitch report now from the MCG. We've got a bit of
9:15 forecast for rain. in the first two days. Um, but an asterisk for that because we're obviously a long way out from it actually starting. So, keep an eye on that. It's a bit of hashtag overheads the MCG generally. Last five first inning scores in test match cricket. Very interesting. 474318 and then it gets pretty low 1891 1851 95. There's definitely a surface which keeps the bowlers keen. Sheffield shield this season. Um, one match so far, scores of 194,255255. Western Australia got up in the fourth to win relatively easily in that one. Lost only four wickets in the chase. Uh, she shield last season two games scores
10:01 of talking telephone numbers 172123 223 249 and 272136246241. And that was in first innings um through second innings, third innings etc. of the order stats and trends only be one drawn test the MCG in the last 10. First innings average runs per wicket is 40.3. Fourth innings average runs per wicket is 24. That's the sort of gap you would expect. Australia won seven of the last 10 at the G. Paul pitch angles pre-toss or in play. Take your pick. Well, you mentioned uh a bit of rain, overcast conditions. Forecast I said saw had only at 20%. So I think it's
10:47 probably overcast conditions probably not easy to bat first two days. And I think everything we've seen, everything we know points to low scoring again. I mean um the run lines have almost all come in unders off their opening quote throughout series so far. Even last time even that Australian score 371 that was below par. Um if you look at the Melbourne in our 5year study sample two out of three out of five saw under 1,000 runs. Um, I think it's going to be a huge advantage to be batting at the right time in those first two days cuz the overcast conditions. I know 30% of first innings in the sunny s were coming
11:33 under 200. Um, so it's definitely under place and I would I think we could be looking at an early finish may well can't see it making the fifth day. Maybe it won't make the fourth day. >> Yeah. And on that point about um bowlers potentially do dominating in a short game, seven bet have actually got some very interesting specials up on the Ashes series at the moment and we'll return to it. I think Paul and Rich have both had a look at this and we'll pick these out as we go through. But one from me, lowest all out team score under 131.5 at 2:1 was something which interested me because we're going to the two tests now which are probably the more bowler friendly um of the series so far. We could well see um team raised at
12:21 the at the G. Um Rich, have you got any angles on the pitch? >> I I I sort of agree with Paul really. I do think they'll leave grass on it. I remember this used to be a really flat pick. Do you remember the Alistister Cook 244 not out was it? Um that's 2017 and then they were in danger of losing test status because the picture had got that bad here that flat completely changed now. They'll leave grass on it but the the over heads will just exaggerate things. Um that's just a game changer isn't it? And with England as we've seen there doesn't need to be that much in it. They batted well in Adelaide really comparative to the rest of the series. But what was the gaba wasn't bad. It wasn't bad when he got out away
13:08 from the lights, but they still struggled just anything and that I think there'll be just enough in that for the Australian seamers this week. >> All right, Richard's giving a a hint to how he's going to answer his next question. Um I think Paul has as well, but I mean the odds are prohibitive, Paul. Um I mean who wins the match? Yeah, it has to be Australia. The odds are prohibitive. I couldn't back it knowing that they could end up being put in on a green pitch in overcast conditions. So hopefully it'll drift out a bit. Hopefully the inplay system will work this time. >> Uh Rich for you. >> Yeah, Australia. But that's that is key. I think Paul said there depends, you know, you could get find yourself batting at the wrong time and that might
13:55 just be the level of the England need. You never know. I thought it's worth I think this is this pitch is going to be a bit of a leveler and if England get best of conditions it's probably one to wait around for uh stay up on Christmas day night if you can and if what's coming back from the TV overcast conditions bit of a green surface and Stoke says we're going to have a bowl I think that's the time to play England Rich >> now so we saw in Adelaide didn't we England are much happier out of the batting past. >> Yeah, >> they just stoked captains bear that way as well. >> Yeah. >> Um, any more business in terms of one more thing, Paul, that actually happens in this test?
14:41 >> Yeah. Well, okay, I'm going to say two things, sorry, because I meant to mention one before. First of all, no ton in the match has won two out of the last five here and that's a 7-2 chance. So, that's value on the numbers in a lowscoring game. But also with an eye on those early conditions favoring one side I think five to one about an innings victory is very plausible here. Um you you know it's very see the first team put in bow out for 150 next team makes 400 you've got a fantastic chance. >> Uh another nugget from Richard. >> Well actually not only in the matching test me but actually the seven bet specials that you're talking about these are really good by the way. um series tons now the lines at 7.5 uh that's 18
15:28 to 25 is seven bet if you want to play unders and I'd definitely be playing unders um just Kevin Peterson put a tweet out a few weeks ago I think the South Africa when they won at Kolkata saying batsman just just aren't designed for test match cricket nowadays and he got a lot of flack for it players can't b time but he was right essentially I know he says a lot of things that are wrong but he was Right. And you've seen it in this series. I mean, what we've had four and three games so far. We've just had an absolute road Adelaide and yet we only got two tons. I was looking at the spread actually before the game. I was thinking four, five tons in that match. People just can't do it. And Kerry and Head as well who made the tons both very fortunate. One dropped on 99. The other really was out by DRS or or
16:16 given a lifeline through DRS. And yet you looked 15 years back that famous 2010 2011 series. I know England were brilliant but they made nine tons in that series but as bad as Australia were in that series they still made three. England aren't going to make three in this series with two to go and obviously tough conditions at the G. It's just amazing how things have changed. People not being able to bat time and make those really big scores or not enough people. And I think just bringing it back to betting, that's something we are going to have to get on board with and be more aware of because I love my milestones betting. But you're getting caught short if you're back in tons. Just not enough of them happening. Uh we're going to come to Paul for his um Ashes series special spot from Seven
17:01 Bet in a second, but seems personate to tell you you can get a free10 pound bet of the cricket betting podcast with Seven Bet if you use the promo code WFB10.10 first deposit minimum 10 pound state£10 free bet minimum odds evens maximum winnings 100 quid 5day expiry bonus T's and C's apply. If you like the cricket betting podcast and you think we're worth listening to, please do sign up to seven bet because they help this podcast uh get into your ears every single week. There are partners and sponsors. So uh if we can send some signups uh their way, we can keep producing this podcast. Uh Paul, what have you spotted on those series specials? >> Yeah, I think she's a really outstanding
17:47 bet. In fact, I would like some extra points for best bets please this week just to have the Um, so it's under 47.56s in the series, right? We're on 30 so far. So we're under 17.5 for the last two. Now, as anyone who follows the in the VIP group will know, we love taking on sixes at the MCG and the SCG. Big grounds. Big grounds. Very hard to get sixes. I look back over recent years, this bet has landed the last eight winters. Whoever Australia have played, there have been under 17.56s every year in those two tests. >> And also also just to say odds against as well is 119 to 100. It isn't even a 56 pair job. So major major bit of value
18:34 there. >> There you go. Get on to that one. Get signed up for seven bet to take advantage of that. Uh that's the sort of bet that actually we normally sort of keep to ourselves for VIP. So um get on to seven bet now and have a bit of that. Don't forget to sub up to that VIP Telegram channel in the comments section below where Paul, Rich, and myself are there providing the best bets every single day to your phone or device in plays every televised game. Big bash ILt20. We are up up on profits ROI. So get involved. You'll be a okay on the VIP. Um you also get access to the VIP channel uh chat room. Uh loads of betting angles being discussed on
19:20 cricket and darts at the moment as well. So if that's your bag, he'll be well served. Let's talk about player win rates for this test match at the MCG. Um Australia and then England players on the top markets. It's just a general point about win rates, which I know I like to bang on about. I really can't remember a set of players with worse numbers uh for a test series in this absolute horror show across both teams in terms of finding gaps between implied probability and how often some of these guys win. I mean duck it 7.6% in the first innings last two years 3.8 in the second Smith 10% first and second innings really terrible numbers. Um, I mean, no batter has more than a
20:05 23% win rate across these two teams in the last two years, and that's Joe Root. And as we always say, Joe Root is uh nowhere near a 23% chance with your oddsmen. Um so bearing in that in mind the only angles I can find in terms of whis of win rate is Kawaja at 15% winning rated at 13-2 uh generally and that's 13% chance you can get Alex Kerry at 71 7 to1 with Uni Bet and Bet Fred he's winning 19% of the time but um you're basically following the money with Kerry because he's been delivering a big runs. Hayden is not far off 4 to1 Sky power bet sports book he's
20:51 winning 19% of the time but no sugar really so those are your Australian batters um I mean Rich I'm against Kawaj here if he opens the batting uh potentially bowl friendly pitch um Labashane interesting as well seems actually played himself out of form in this Ashes series when he came in was absolutely dynamite form he's now getting squared up his technique going to now seem to know where his off stamp is anymore. What have you got? >> Yeah, frustrating with Lashen making starts and not going on. I agree. It feels like missed the missed the boat a bit with Kerry struggling to be honest actually with this market. Um I I think it's rare occasion where I'd definitely be saying no bet. >> Well, Swerve is as good as a a loser is
21:38 well better than a loser. Um, anything anything in play, Rich, for I mean, do you agree with Kawaja or are you put off by what he's just done? >> Yeah, I I I think once he gets on a juicier pitch, um, just something in play I do want to say. The three Sheffield heel games this season, uh, India last year on this ground, they got a lot of their wickets either bowled or LBW. Australia didn't, but India went that way. She can feel heal games this season. First one 14 bowled across the match, five LBWs. Second, eight eight bow, five LBWs. Then the third it did taper off quite a bit, but bold and LBW I think you banging the money and I just wondered if England are visiting team finally might start pitching it up. I mean it's one I know you've talked about root LBW as well, but I just wonder if
22:25 that might be the way to go. Both LBWs. It' be interesting to to see sort of early in the game how the pitch is shaping up in terms of bounce and and lateral movement, particularly inward lateral movement. Yeah, Boland's a specialist for that one. Uh Root often VIP in play pick actually LBW did him in the last test and the previous test just gets hit on the pad all the time and I think we've been on him for LBW five uh three now DRS referrals. probably should have been given the last one in Adelaide of Travis Head of all people. Um Paul, Australia bats picks if you've got any. I mean you might be like Rich and say well just nothing there in the market.
23:10 >> Yeah well I mean Alex Kerry's done me proud. Uh delivered twice on this at 12 to1 and now he's seven. So I think it's probably time to abandon that strategy. Although I would still take the six to one on him getting most sixes in the first innings for Australia simply because you look at the numbers and it's him or Travis head loads the others like Labashane and Kawaja might be major players for top bat but they've got a terrible sixes record and Kerry bats with the tail. Um also with a potential low score in play you know I'd be looking down I'd be looking at Mitchell Stark again at a silly price. >> All righty. top bowler I mean not much to discuss really here certainly not much to beat for bowling seven wickets in that 2021 game at G of course um he's
24:00 three to one with Pat coming still listed the boil bet sports power sky bet stark 5-2 sky stark doesn't have a great record at the G actually 33 and I think it's his second least favorite ground in terms of his stats behind Sydney actually rather surprisingly um any thoughts of Australia bowler Rich or Paul. >> I'm very keen on Boland here. Brilliant record here. I think he's bow well in the series. Probably hasn't got the rewards that his efforts deserve, but that will change, you suspect, particularly on his home game. Six for seven against England four years ago. >> Oh, exactly the same. Um 11 to1 man of the match as well as that 3 to one. He's bowling really well and look at his I'm also interested. I haven't seen any odds
24:45 up yet, but player performance because he has actually added a few runs with a bat and he takes your catch. Last three at his performance at Melbourne, he made 151, 50, and 176. He's made at least 80 in the three matches so far. So hopefully we'll get a nice low line on him. >> There's consensus with Bowand across all three of us. Let's move to England tops now. Again, Darth of Value. Same point I've just made about win rates are the two that I've picked out in terms of how often they win and getting an edge on implied probability with these book makers. Well, we've got Zack Crawley at 7 to1 bet Fred Star Sports got 22% win rate. But does anyone want to be backing Zack Crawley with the ball hooping round at the MCG? Of course not. So I've looked at Jamie Smith quite seriously.
25:31 11 to1 bet Fred 22% win rate. Now we're getting a fair study sample on Smith now as well which is good. And has he settled into the series? Um Paul any follows? >> Well not my favorite market to be honest with you. Um for the top end of the market I would look at Ben Stokes who played pretty well last time. Not going to have to worry about Nathan Lion this time. Guaranteed to be fighting to the death in this series. Um now but secondly I would say I know you've got him in I don't think I'm not convinced Archer will play. I think they'll rest him but if Archer plays he's just proven once again right that he is always overpriced at like 100 to one plus the guy can bat you know um I
26:19 don't know he's won it in test cricket but he's definitely won it in one day cricket and in the IPL. So with a low score on in in mind if Arch is in the team I would take 80 to one plus >> 40 or 50 could win this one. Uh that's for sure. Richard man. >> Yeah, I mean Paul Archer some I mean is is this price is an anomaly but actually a 125 bet 365. Um so yeah I have got him actually pencled in for the best bets. So keep your keep your mitts off. Uh and Cass is 50s as well. I'm not sure both will play but I suspect one will play. Stakes returned if they don't play. Um C 30 odd hour Adid 20 at Perth. He's a bit of a head case I think Cass isn't he? but he can clearly bat. Um I just think lower
27:04 down the order. I think Ed makes a really good point about Smith who actually I think he's cop some unfair criticism in this series so far. I mean they've all been terrible and yet Smith seems to be you know the one of the ones who's really getting hit. His keeping hasn't matched up to Kerry's but I mean you know there we go. But yeah I think lower down is a way to go. >> Yeah. No that that is another that's a podcast in itself. K's wicket keeping. supposed to be raving about it, but I grew up watching Jack Russell. >> I can't I can't have it, Richard. It's just, you know, he was standing up the other week, was it in Brisbane, everyone wetting their pants about it. It was standing too far back and they missed a stumping because Anyway, I'm going to
27:50 stop the quality of test wicket keeping. >> You just want to see Mark Alain nipping it about, don't you? >> Yeah. Yeah. Uh I mean Jack Russell standing up to John Lewis. Uh or Ian Harvey. There you go. Um right. Uh any any in plays on some of these England batters? Um I mean selling England's batters runs when they've got into about the mid- teens has been profitable in play. Uh Paul, >> no, not really in my market to be honest. I would want to see conditions before committing to that. >> I'm against I'm against Brooke here. 25.5 B sports first in his runs runs line. Um you remember at the start of the series I've put him up for no ton in the series um at 11 to 10. That's
28:36 looking good so far. I just think he's got found out technically he don't move his feet far enough across to defend outside off stump and I think the big ground here could catch him out playing a short ball as well. Um so I'm if it's a juicy deck I'm happy to go low on Brooke. >> England top bowler market now. Um Atkinson wins 26% of the time but not likely to come back into the team but 72 B sports. Um Archer has one win from five wants to come back in teams three with Boil Sports. Um there's nothing really here for me at all but I I'll ask the question Richard. >> Well Tongue I think he he he's one who probably should back up. He'd have
29:22 probably won it actually last week were it not for drop catches and that DRS that was incorrect off Kerry. So um I think he's a solid pick because either cast or actually won't play one of them you think would would sit out. >> Paul >> totally agree um he's fresher than the rest. I think the MCG will suit Tong as well. Yeah, >> he did bowl pretty well last week. sort of 16 to1 ton to be top England series wicket taker in case he he does a Scotty Boland at the MCG and Archer doesn't play again or cast doesn't play again a few things which have to happen but there you go um we're going to go to best bets now we've looked at the specials we've looked at uh your player win rates we've done teams pitch reports etc and I think we pretty much told you
30:08 exactly what's going to happen in the fourth ashes test at the mcg Christmas day night it starts so we will go to best bets. Both Paul and Richard have five units to spend and as Paul boasted he wanted more than five units, you can go first. >> Okay. Um so under 47.5 series sixes with seven bets 119 to 100. That's the one I want the extra points for. Um, and I'll have 1.5 points England first innings runs under 225 and I have 1.5 points Scott Bowlan top Australia first innings bowler at 3 to1.
30:55 >> Richard man, please. >> Yes, sir. I'll have a I'm just two points uh under 7.5 series Tons 18 to 25 with seven bet. Um, I'm going to have uh 1.5 points Harry Brookke under 25.5 first innings runs at Boil Sports. I'm going to have half a point Scott Boland man of the match. Uh, and then that what's that leave me? Uh, a full point, doesn't it? So, I'm going to split stakes. Half a point Goff actually top England first innings bat 125 to one bet 365 and half a point pride and cast top England first innings B 50 to1 also bet 365.
31:40 All right, those are your best bets. Don't forget to subscribe to the Inplay VIP channel in the comments section below via Telegram so you'll get the best ashes false test bets as we see them as this test gets underway. Yes, we're working for you on Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Um, so don't miss that. Also, double bubble this week. If you're eagle eyed and you've got your ears peeled, we've got an SAT20 podcast telling you exactly what happens in the SAT20 and the ultimate betting guide to that. Also brought to you by Seven Bet. So, check that one out and we will see you next time for our preview of the fifth and final Ashes Test. See
32:26 you then.
