WARNING- IT'S HAPPENING!

0:00 How's it going everyone? It's happening. Bitcoin is moving back down to the bottom of this range that we've seen recently and uh this has been interesting. A lot of people have been bearish recently uh on crypto just over the last week because a week ago or a little bit over a week ago we were hitting all-time highs. Um, but people are getting bearish down here and I want to tell you what's happening right now, what we can look forward to in the future, maybe some opportunities and some things to look out for to be cautious of. So, obviously the market is falling down. We have the NASDAQ down about 6%. Um, Bitcoin falling more than uh traditional markets. Altcoins also looking a bit bloody as well. What's

0:45 happening? Well, we're getting a repricing. Uh Poly Market is saying there's only a 57% chance that we see rate cuts in September, which means the cost of capital is going to be higher, that the risk-free rate of return is going to be higher, which means that there's less money that's going to flow into risk on assets. If you look at the Fed rate monitor tool, it's not 57%, but it's at 75%. So, they look at various uh or they they get information from uh different entities. So they have different outlooks, but still the the chances that we see a rate cut are going down since yesterday and the days before. Maybe partly due to economic data or partly due to what the Fed is saying. Uh some different Fed um officials have talked about rate cuts. Now a lot of people are bearish on this.

1:31 Um to be clear, a week ago, just over Yeah, just a week ago exactly. I said we know in 12 hours I was pointing out that PCE was coming out the following morning. We were hitting all-time highs and I said, you know, I'm taking some profit. We were, like I said, we were right at all-time highs. I said I was closing out anywhere, it was right around 7% of my long position. So, not huge, not a huge amount, but I took some of the profits. A few days before that, I had actually longed the bottom uh right around here, 113,000, and did it at 60x, rode it up to 118. I had rolled that into a much lower leverage position. So instead of 60x, I rolled into 3x. So we actually basically just booked a lot of profits and then

2:18 still had exposure to the market. Just took a lot of the risk off the table. So there are a couple times in here where I was reducing exposure, right, or reducing risk because people felt a or seemed a little bit too excited, right? And I'm I get excited by the market too, just like everyone else. But I have to practice taking profits, especially in trading, right? Uh I'm taking profits in trading, not selling, not selling my spot bags, but I sell when we're getting excited. And then this when we're falling down is actually when I like to pounce, when I like to get more exposure. Now, I I say there's a warning because we are getting closer to the bottom edge of this range. Right? If you look here, the downtrending channel is almost exactly where we bottomed just a

3:06 few days ago, which is exactly where we saw resistance. It's right around $111,900. So, if we fall another $400, if we continue to fall, we will break out of this range. We'll also break down lower, so we'll have a lower low. Um, and things could get interesting. We could see some more liquidations. That's what's happening right now, too. We are seeing about 150 million liquidated in the last 24 hours. A lot of that in the last 4 hours. Quick intermission. If you want to trade, you can check out the link to DeFi. We have this trading competition going on. It's completely free. You automatically get signed up for these. Um, and it's not even a competition cuz you just get free money or you can get free money. Check this out if you want to leverage trade underneath. Now, am I bearish here? No.

3:52 I made a video yesterday explaining how actually when we see dips like this um you get a much better return if you're able to buy and Bitcoin still goes to the same prices that you thought it was going to go to before. So a week ago a lot of people were bullish and we were at 123,000 124,000. If we go from 123,000 to 150,000 you get a good return. If we go from 113,000 to 150,000, you get a 50% better return, which sounds crazy, but it's true, right? You you make 50% more on your purchase if you're willing to buy 10% lower. So, when you're able to jump in with

4:38 leverage or something, uh, not something, when you're able to jump in with leverage, when we see dips, you can get even better returns. So, I like when we see pullbacks. Again, I explained yesterday uh actually a couple reasons why I like pullbacks to start buying and trading more. You can also tell where we have significant amounts of uh support and resistance. So, right now we know that there should be support around that $111,900 mark. We could break down below it in which case I would be looking at $110,000. But, uh those spots are often times where we see pretty nice bounces. Like you can see just a few days ago, we went from 112,260 all the way up to 114,800, which doesn't

5:24 seem like that much, but if you're using leverage, 10x leverage, you can get really good returns on just a 2 or 3% move. Um, so I'm watching this. Of course, there's fear over Jackson Hole tomorrow in the speech, but I'm not worried. Why is that? Well, we see Bitcoin dumps a lot. 8%, right? We're we're down a little bit more than 8% right now. I think we're down uh 10% from the high, maybe 11. It's done this hundreds and hundreds of times. It's dropped 8% over a thousand times, and it's always rallied to new all-time highs, right? This is just the most recent time we've seen it. So, it's really not anything concerning to anyone that's been in crypto for a while. Keep in mind, too, this is when we see the

6:09 worst months for Bitcoin. The worst month is typically September. Second worst month is August. Does that mean that you should sell? No, not necessarily because we don't know if this is going to happen in the future. Also, you have to take into account taxes. All also, you have to take into account that things could be different this time, right? Do you want to miss out on a 27% gain, then 38%, then a 10% like the average? Do you want to miss out on those returns because you want to sell for a 5% return or a 5%? You don't want that 5% loss for a month. Maybe you get 5% more Bitcoin, but maybe you lose out on a big move, 100% move. So, I'm not selling out completely. I'm not

6:56 selling out really at all right now. I I just took profits over the last couple weeks and rotate some positions when I thought it was advantageous. I like to get more aggressive when we fall down. So, when we fall down to a significant support of previous resistance and I think we're going to flip it into support, I go aggressive. So, I did a 60x long position. I might put less margin in. That's the other side of it, right? I'm not doing this with like 2% of my portfolio on 60x leverage or anything like that, but I might go more aggressive and then take profits more aggressive. And then uh yeah, when we fall down more, I also like to set up long positions that are very low leverage because I can just ride those for a long time. Right now, if you set up a you know, if you set up a even 5x

7:44 long on Bitcoin, you have $22,000 before you get liquidated. So that would put you down at $90,000. We have not seen that in a very long time since we came out of the April crash. So most likely won't see it again. Of course, we could. So you always have to know the risk. But yeah, I'm not too worried about Bitcoin whether we're looking at trading or just accumulating long-term. I think this is completely normal. Even, you know, look how many drops we had that were 10%. We just had this in May to June. We went down over 10%. We did this back in January to April. We did this all of last year. Basically going up and down

8:30 10 to 30% over and over and over. But yeah, just wanted to give you a little warning that if you get out of the market, you are missing out on some of the best months typically. Also want to give you a warning, a little maybe not warning, a little heads up that you can get much better returns now that we've fallen down. Um, also pay attention. If we fall down another $300, we're at a new low. So, you might want to pay attention to the price action. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. I'll see you all soon. By the way, if you do want to trade crypto, check out by DeFi underneath the video. You can start trading. We have this trading competition. every million dollars in cumulative volume that anyone's from anyone that's ever traded um sorry anyone that's ever signed up under my

9:15 link to trade it adds $100 to the price pool. So as people trade more and more there's more and more money that you can get. Thank you so much. I appreciate it.