Russia and China Will Not Let Iran Fall, Back Tehran After US Strikes, Warns Expert | N18G

0:04 [Music] Hello and a very warm welcome. The United States has targeted three critical nuclear sites in Iran, stepping into Israel's fight to stop Thran's nuclear ambitions. This staring strike has sent shock waves across the region, raising the stakes and fears of a wider conflict. To help us unpack the implications, we are now being joined by Glenn Dason, who is an international affairs expert. Glenn, welcome to First Post. Thank you for having me on. President Trump originally said he'd wait 2 weeks before responding, but he acted within days. What do you make of this timing? Well, I think uh he likes to go for

0:52 deception. Again, this wasn't the first one. It's worth noting that the Israelis launched their surprise attack on Iran during negotiations. Uh and um it appears that Trump was doing the same. He argued that they would think about it for two weeks and then make a decision and then launched a strike. From what I understand, there were some efforts also to deceive with some other flights uh going along a different path to make it uh seem as if an attack wasn't imminent. Uh so um again this is very unfortunate as well there military benefits obviously for launching surprise attacks in terms of going for a decapitation or or a knockout blow but the problem obviously is no one can trust the United

1:39 States again if it's uh if it keeps arguing that it's merely um yeah looking for diplomatic solutions and at the same time striking indeed immediately after do United States attacked Iran, they Trump comes out and say, "Well, now it's time for peace and you know, don't you dare to respond and retaliate." So, I think uh it's a yeah, it's a very yeah tragic day for international law. It's a tragic day for the non-prololiferation treaty. It's a very tragic tra tragic day for uh key institutions. Keeping in mind that yeah, Trump doesn't listen anymore to his own intelligence services and uh yeah, overall it's um yeah, I think a a lot of things were

2:26 destroyed uh today. Um yeah, besides whatever the United States bombed, speaking of going on a different path with the United States entering the Iran Israel war, tensions are only going to escalate. How likely is that that Iran will retaliate against the United States despite Trump's warning? Well, I think it's more or less uh given. I I I I can't imagine Iran not retaliating because uh there's always a dilemma. I think the fear of Iran would be if they hit too hard that uh it would encourage United States to become more deeply involved and this could bring a lot of death and destruction to Iran. So they, you know, nobody wants a war with the United States. It's a very powerful

3:12 country. On the other hand, if they do not retaliate, it will merely embolden the United States uh and other countries. That is uh if if you can just bomb uh nuclear reactors in Iran and nothing happens. So they they do have to respond in some way. Um but uh yeah to what extent uh my assumption is that they will try to have a measured uh response so they do not instigate too much of a reaction from the United States so they don't alienate other partners. Um yeah from the Iranians I've spoken to I get the impression that they want to be seen as a responsible um state. So they don't want to alienate their friends and allies, be it the

3:59 Chinese, the Russians. Um and um yeah, so but they will respond. If they but if they didn't respond, they would be the restraint would be interpreted as weakness. If they do respond, it will be interpreted as aggression. So I think there's very little options now than to quickly move up the escalation ladder. Again, it all depends on how the United States will respond to the retaliation by Iran and uh how strong the Iranian retaliations will be. But the retaliations uh I'm quite certain that there will be. Glenn, you say nobody wants to go to war with the United States. So, how seriously should Iran take Trump's warning of further attacks, which he says will be far greater than this one?

4:46 Well, there's two competing hypothesis here. One is that Trump got himself uh you know he walked into this difficult position where Israel went to war with Iran and uh and then Iran Israel was losing so they kind of were forced into this war that is Netanyahu almost tricked the United States into this. Um and uh yeah if if this is the case then uh Trump could have launched his attacks. he can appear as the strong man and he can walk away as a as a yeah as a as a winner. Um the alternative hypothesis is that the Americans want this war. So whenever Iran retaliates uh it will be seen as an opportunity for the Americans to to launch an even more

5:33 powerful attack on Iran. So I I think a lot of this though is again outside the hands of the Iranians because the way they see it, they do have to respond in some way. So I I would I would take it very serious. Um but again, how do you avoid avoid avoid a war with an with the United States? Uh there's a security dilemma. That is if you don't respond, you're weak. If you do respond, then uh they can uh react. So uh too little and too much, they're both problems here. And they can both encourage the United States to attack Iran again. Ken, speaking of diplomacy, until now Iran's closest allies, Russia and China have not intervened. What kind of role do you think Moscow or Beijing might play as

6:18 the situation develops? Well, as it is now, I can't imagine a scenario where Iran or sorry, where China or Russia would actually send troops or get involved directly. None of them wants to fight Israel. They don't want to fight the United States. Um but indeed uh Iran has assisted Russia in its uh in in in its war as uh the NATO countries are also fighting a proxy war as we speak against the Russians and they've limited themselves to sending drones and different weaponies and I think this is likely what Israel what Russia and China is already doing or at least will do which is to supply intelligence uh send weapons or components for

7:05 weapons. So there's many things they can do and again there's already been some uh unconfirmed reports that yeah this has happened. So I don't think China or Russia can afford to see Iran fall and collapse. So even if it's out of self-interest they have to help to preserve Iran because the way they see it the reason why the United States want to knock out Iran is the same reason they want to knock out China or knock out Russia. that is Iran is a key component of this new a multipolar world forming in Eurasia. So they they would see this as a huge threat to their own national security if the United States would be successful in uh destroying Iran. And uh I do think most or I'm very

7:52 sure that uh these countries are interpreting this war not as having much to do about nuclear programs but rather to be a regime change war to change the map of uh Eurasia. So uh I think purely self-interest they will get involved to some extent but not in a direct fight. Which leads me to my final question. Could this crisis have a big impact on the global economy especially when it comes to oil and shipping? Yeah, I think definitely. Uh that is u yeah the Persian Gulf can already be shut down. Uh Iran has always warned that the straight of moose uh which is very narrow waterway in which it can essentially shut down all traffic and u

8:38 yeah create a cauldron for American warships within uh but also it can inhibit shipping. It can end a very important corridor for oil and it could even go beyond this if other countries get pulled into this. Yemen will will likely go back to fighting. Yeah, given that they can't afford to see Iran fail either. So, there's a lot of ways that this can affect the international economy. So, again, oil and shipping lanes are a key one. Uh and uh yeah and I think that this is part of the Iranian deterrent that is they can launch missiles back at Israel. They can always sink some American warships or

9:25 strike some bases. Uh but uh yeah the impact on international trading routes and energy prices is is a big deterrent which Iran has always said is a deterrent. So I assume that they would have to follow through to some extent otherwise if you don't deter when your opponents crosses your red line then uh your deterrence is gone and they will cross this again and uh if there's one thing the Iranians have made very clear bombing their nuclear facilities is obviously a red line. So, um, yes. So, I I wouldn't be surprised if shutting down, uh, some of these trade corridors are part of its retaliation. And that was Glenderson who is an

10:10 international affairs expert. Glenn, thank you for your time and thank you for sharing your insights with First Post. Uh, thank you for having me on. [Music]