시진핑 최측근 또 숙청, 중국에 도대체 무슨 일이 일어났나? (박종훈의 지식한방)

0:00 Recently, President Xi Jinping lost power. In other words, there is a claim that he has lost power . Even President Xi Jinping will soon be officially removed from power . In other words, there were vague claims that he would be ousted, but now, with these stories being officially reported in the American media, rumors of Chairman Xi Jinping's ouster and downfall are circulating around the world. So, where did it start? Actually, there are facts. What are the facts? On June 27, Reuters reported that it was indeed confirmed that Yahuhua, a close associate of President Xi Jinping, had been purged . Rumors of Yahoo being purged have been circulating for months now, and

0:46 now it has been officially confirmed. The Royto News Agency just reported the facts, but the New York Post reported it very strongly . Of course, this is a column, not an article, so it contains an argument, but what did a columnist with a diplomat background argue? In China, military personnel are being purged, all of whom are close to Xi Jinping. And President Xi Jinping 's security force has been cut in half. If Xi Jinping were in full power, would his security force have been cut in half? I wrote a column that almost seemed to justify the expulsion of the seasoning commentator in this way . But this

1:34 New York Post article was met with a harsh response from Taiwanese media . Even Taiwan's top three media outlets, Liberty Times, are amplifying the New York Post article and reporting on it as if Xi Jinping's downfall is almost a done deal . So, the media in our country . Taiwanese newspaper Liberty Times is giving special coverage to reports on President Xi Jinping's downfall . So, to understand what is really happening around President Xi Jinping, it helps a lot to understand even just a little bit about China's political circles . First of all, there is something very unique about China. There is a separate political organization and a slightly separate military organization

2:20 . In a case like ours, the structure is that it goes down like this: the president, then the prime minister, then the minister of national defense, but in China, the political structure and the military structure are somewhat separate. Okay, let's first take a look at the political landscape. President Xi Jinping is the highest, sitting at the top of the pyramid. Below that are the seven members of the Executive Committee . And the Politburo originally had 25 members, but now only about 22 remain. And underneath that, there is a pyramid structure with the Central Committee, the National Representative Committee, and the Party members . But this is only a political structure. The problem is that military issues are

3:08 completely separate . In fact, this can be seen as a way to strengthen the power of the Chinese president, but now the situation is a bit different. There are reports that the military keeps having problems and that there is a problem with President Xi Jinping's power, but the political structure itself is solid. It is not a question of whether the Standing Committee and the Politburo under President Xi Jinping have expelled or removed members of President Xi Jinping's inner circle . But the problem is that, separate from this, there is a Central Military Commission, and Xi Jinping's associates are currently being purged . In China, the commentator said:

3:55 Not only is he at the top of the political landscape, but he also has complete control over the military as he serves as the head of the Central Military Commission . But the military keeps saying that President Xi Jinping's control has weakened. Now, China has a Minister of National Defense, but this is actually more of a dummy position, and the Central Military Commission is the organization that really controls the military. However, the fact that all of the people recently purged by the Central Military Commission were Xi Jinping's closest associates has led to rumors that Xi Jinping's power is being shaken . President Xi Jinping is the real power behind the Central Military Commission and

4:46 is the top military figure. And in the military, there is a second-ranking position, the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission . That person is Zhang Youxia, and since Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia have been extremely close, there was no separate faction. They were all part of Xi Jinping's faction. But lately, rumors keep coming out about something . There are claims that the Xi Jinping faction and the Zhang You Shop faction are fiercely fighting each other in the military, and if that is true, then there is something very strange about it . President Xi Jinping still remains the nominal power holder of the military, and Zhang Youxia also remains the second-most powerful person

5:34 . Both are formally sound . But starting from 3rd place, there's something really strange. What is it? The third most powerful person in the military is Vice Chairman Ho Weidong, known as the Xi Jinping faction. It was purged. He went missing in March. So, this whole thing started to get weird starting in March . Next, this person, New Jeon-ri, is the 4th most powerful person in the military. It is known as the Jang Yoo Shop faction, and it still holds power and is still going strong. And the person who has been the subject of a lot of articles recently is Yao Hua. Yao Hua holds the 5th place in power in the military and is part of President Xi Jinping's faction. This faction has been purged.

6:19 This has been going on for months and was made official in June, so two people from the Xi Jinping faction were purged and the Jang Yoo Shop pop-up shop is making all these recommendations. This is what happened. What's the other problem here? Zhang Yingmin is even taking on Yao Hua's role while the purged person has not yet been replaced with another person. But Jang Young-min is also part of the Jang Yu-sa faction. So isn't the military currently completely under Jang Yoo's control? These kinds of stories have been coming out underground. This person is Jang Yu-sha. Guys, who is Jang Yusha ? In order to see whether or not Zhi Jinping's power will be shaken in the future,

7:07 Zhang Youxia's movements will be very important . Xi Jinping and Zhang Youshi were originally very close friends. As a result, we can be called sworn brothers, and we have been close since our father's time. Both men's fathers were first-generation Chinese revolutionaries and fought in the Chinese Civil War. So, the second generation, Xi Jinping and Zhang Youshi, were also called the second generation revolutionary Bungyuetai, and the two were very close. It is known that the two are close enough that Xi Jinping calls Zhang Youxia “brother,” so there is a reason why the two have become closer. Both men were purged. Then they kicked me out and sued me really hard.

7:53 Xi Jinping has suffered, and Zhang Youzi has suffered too. So, at first, they were the sons of those in power, and then their fathers were purged, and they suffered together, and in the process, their friendship became incredibly strong. That's how everyone interpreted it. So there is also a story that Zhang Youxia helped Xi Jinping tremendously when he took power . Since Xi Jinping took power, the military's control has been truly enormous. The process of blowing up about 160 generals. They say that more generals were killed than during the Cultural Revolution. By taking the lead in the military headquarters, Xi Jinping completely took control of the military . And when Xi Jinping first came to power, he kept cutting the military's throats, so he must have been very anxious. I didn't trust the

8:40 Central Guard Security Service because I was afraid that there might be some military force that was trying to take my life . So the two were very close to each other, to the point where he asked Jang Yu-han to select a security guard . In particular, when Zhang Yu succeeded in his third term, he was able to suppress the military's opposition while maintaining control of the military, which is how the West interprets it, making it easy for Xi Jinping to succeed in his third term. But this is where the story begins. The source of this story is that as soon as President Xi Jinping succeeded in winning a third term, he first got rid of Zhang Youxia. Think about why he did that . According to this story, from President Xi Jinping's point of view, he needed to monopolize power by himself, but

9:27 Zhang Youxia suppressed the military, and with Zhang Youxia's charisma and leadership, the military was barely able to suppress the discontent that had reached the peak of its power. Then, from the perspective of Season Ping, I have to be at a loss while Jang Yoo is in the military . Since I am the most powerful person, I would rather get rid of Jang Yu-sha. This is the story of how the decision was made. In fact, as if to prove this story, the first person to be eliminated was the Minister of National Defense, Li Sang-fu. He was purged in October 23 and transferred to the military prosecution. And

10:14 in July of the 23rd year, former Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin was purged. After all, he is Jang Yu-sha's closest confidant. Not only that, there are countless Wang Shu and others. Li Yang continued to send so many Zhang Yu Pavers in succession that Zhang Yu Xia was shocked and felt betrayed. This is the second part of the story . He said he stabbed his brother in the back . However, those who insist that President Xi Jinping is still in good health oppose this first story. What are you talking about? The argument is that it was not an attempt to get rid of Zhang Pao, but rather that the Chinese military was so rotten that when it came to getting rid of this rotten military, the Zhang Shihe faction happened to be very large . So both

11:02 claims are actually true. No, if it weren't for Jang Yoo, the military wouldn't be under control. It won't work. Remove all pops from Jangyu City. Is this what Xi Jinping thought or is it really just, "Hey, you guys are really rotten?" All of you corrupt people are purged. This is where the two opinions start to diverge. Here 's another thing I'm curious about. No, we should just get rid of Jang Yu-sha first. Why did you start by eliminating the military forces that followed Jang Yu-sha? As for the reason, those who believe that Season Ping lost power say that since Jang Yusha had absolute trust in the military, they tried to hit Jang Yusha first, but then they

11:49 started hitting Jang Yusha's close associates first because they were afraid that if Season Ping lost here, they would lose all power at once . In the case of Jang Yoo-ja, she has a wealth of practical experience. He participated in the Vietnam War in 1979 and gained great confidence from Chinese military generals after gaining combat experience in the Battle of Laoshan in 1984. This is a very representative interpretation of the side that claims that Jang Yoo currently has a certain level of power. And in the military, the second generation revolutionary network of Heungwol is very important, and all of the second generation revolutionary networks support Zhang Yuxia . So the military's power is much stronger than that of Xi Jinping. This is what I claim. And on top of that,

12:36 they purged too much. Xi Jinping actually purged more military generals than during the Cultural Revolution. This is almost obvious. Well, every time that happened, the military would have been terrified. These terrified generals began to unite around Jangyu. why? Because you never know when something will fly away. So, the military has put Zhang Youxia at the center of power. If this is true, doesn't that mean that Zhang Youxia has already taken control of the military and that Xi Jinping currently has the political power ? And this means that President Xi Jinping may be feeling very anxious right now because he doesn't know when the military will challenge his power

13:23 . But Zhang You was once one of President Xi Jinping 's closest associates and the two were so close that they were called sworn brothers. So is it true that Zhang You really started the counterattack? Let's interpret this as a story that Xi Jinping's Chuseok has lost power. Starting in October 2023, the Rocket Army began a purge, and Jang Yu-ja claims to have been shocked by her relatives and disappeared from public appearances until mid-2024. Well, it's true that Jang Yu-sha did n't appear at many official events after that . However, in the second half of the 24th year, Jang Yu-sha rejoined the party. Since Zhang Youxia appeared, the disappearance or purge of Xi Jinping’s faction within the study group began, so is it possible that Zhang Youxia

14:11 gathered anti-Xi Jinping forces and then suddenly started a large-scale counterattack against Xi Jinping starting in 2025? There are those who interpret it this way. And in the case of Zhang Yuxia, it is known that he had a tendency to want to restore China's collective leadership system of the past . And he is known to be somewhat moderate on the issue of invading Taiwan . Of course, if Jang Yoo-sa really rebels against Xi Jinping and takes power. It is questionable whether such moderate claims about Taiwan will be made in the future . Just because a person is completely different before and after taking power, we should

14:58 n't hastily conclude that Jang Yu-sha is more of a pacifist. So, I have explained the basis for the stories that Xi Jinping has fallen from power. However, the Season Ping comment has already fallen from grace . It's been strengthened even more. There's a reason why this claim is so tense. For example, the original meeting of the Chinese Standing Committee in May 25th was not held. While some argue that this is strange, President Xi Jinping is carrying out his normal national activities . However, some argue that this is how the downfall came about . That's probably the case. I have long phone conversations with President Trump and other heads of state . But what's worse is that President Xi Jinping is currently touring several countries

15:44 . If the power base is shaken, it will be really difficult to visit other countries with peace of mind . So, there are currently sharply divided opinions about President Xi Jinping . However, it is clear that President Xi Jinping has been carrying out a large-scale purge of his inner circle, starting with the Rocket Force . So there is something wrong with this anyway. Because when Xi Jinping purged his opponents, he could do whatever he wanted, but if he is also purging his own close associates, it means that there is a problem and he is doing it anyway. Well, wouldn't someone just blow up their own close associates ? So, it

16:36 is unclear whether the purge strengthened the power or weakened it, but it is clear that there is something wrong with the Chinese military that requires such a large-scale purge of even close associates . What is clear is that discontent is growing within China . So, I'm listening . After that, we just don't know whether power will be strengthened or weakened. And even if power is strengthened through this, such excessive purges are bound to backfire. I could be taken to the police station and tortured or killed . If this kind of fear grips the military, it may pretend to bow down to the powers that be for now, but

17:25 there is still a possibility that it will gradually breed more and more discontent. And most importantly, the fundamental reason why ordinary Chinese citizens are increasingly dissatisfied with the Chinese government is because of the economy, making it more difficult than ever for President Xi Jinping to solve this problem . It could be that President Xi Jinping mishandled economic policy, or it could be that he was just unlucky, but in any case, as soon as President Xi Jinping took office, China's growth rate was cut in half. Now, before the Season Ping regime took over, China was still experiencing high growth. Isn't that an amazing growth rate of 10.6% in 2010 and 9.5% in 2011 ? But President Xi

18:11 Jinping began to officially seize power between 2012 and 2013 . So how did China's growth rate change? It fell significantly to 7.3% in 2014. And immediately after this successful reelection, China's growth rate slowed to 6%. Then, immediately after his third consecutive term, the growth rate plummeted to 5%. There is also talk about statistical manipulation here. If we only grew by 2 to 3%, and President Xi Jinping lowered it from 10 to 3%, it would be like cutting it into pieces. So they are manipulating the statistics to say 5%. There are many Western economic research institutes that look at it this way. Moreover,

18:59 most projections for China's growth rate in 2025 are in the 4% range. Then, from President Xi Jinping's perspective, the situation is that the economy will continue to decline after he takes power . Then, will the Chinese people really view President Xi Jinping as great when the growth rate is cut in half or even half compared to when they were growing well in the past ? As discontent grows, we are ruined because of Xi Jinping . As the discontent towards Chairman Xi Jinping builds up and his power is so strong, people are internally upset, but they have not been able to express it yet. I think we need to look into this further. In the future, China's growth rate is

19:44 likely to fall rather than rise, and if it continues to fall, what will happen? Xi Jinping's power could be shaken to its core . For now, he may have strengthened his power by purging the military. However, the growth rate is bound to decline as the years go by . That's the very serious weakness of the Chinese economy that I mentioned in the last episode. If growth rates continue to fall like this, President Xi Jinping 's power will inevitably be challenged . And yet, President Xi Jinping dreams of a future. So, even if President Xi Jinping's power is not shaken this time, he has a fundamental problem that will inevitably shake his power to its roots sooner or later .

20:31 So what are the future scenarios for President Xi Jinping? If Chairman Zheng Shengping 's power has been strengthened further through this large-scale purge, China will gradually move towards a perfect one-man dictatorship modeled on North Korea . This is how China is headed toward a one-man dictatorship . Then, as the economy continues to decline, discontent will continue to build up, and this will run the risk of exploding later. And the second scenario, which we can't rule out, is that Zhang You takes control of the military and then engages in a fierce power struggle with Xi Jinping, who still has the Standing Committee . And the last third has already fallen. This

21:18 seems a bit unlikely to me. If you have already lost power, it is really difficult to travel abroad with peace of mind. So, I think this is probably the maximum extent of the rumors currently circulating . But the important thing is that China's growth rate has been falling continuously for over 10 years, and this trend is not ending. Let's take a closer look at China's growth rate going forward, because this could be a very important issue that could shake up not only China's economy, but also Chinese politics and the peace issue in East Asia. Okay, now let's finish Park Jong-won's knowledge lesson. See you next time.