0:08 [Music] Namaskar viewers. Hello and welcome to Sunset TV. I'm Tina Ja. You're watching Perspective. India is studying the implications of the strategic mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan under which the two countries have agreed to view an attack on IDA as an aggression against both. In a statement, the Ministry of External Affairs said, and I quote, "We have seen reports of the signing of a strategic mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The government was aware that this development which formalizes a long-standing arrangement between the two countries had been under consideration. We will study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for
0:53 regional and global stability. The statement further read, the government remains committed to protecting India's national interests and ensuring comprehensive national security in all domains. On Wednesday, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the strategic mutual defense agreement. During Pakistani Prime Minister Sheba Sharif's visit to the Gulf country as per a report published by a Saudi press agency, the agreement aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and also strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression and that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both. We'll try to understand from experts the implications of this defense pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia for India and in the
1:40 wider realm for West Asia. We're joined by two distinguished guests. I'm delighted to welcome on the program today Air Marshall Sanjiv Kapoor retired. He's a defense expert. Air Marshall, thank you for your time. Welcome to the program and I'm also pleased to welcome former ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar. Ambassador always a delight to have you with us on our programs. Let me begin the program today with you. So Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have had informal defense relationship going back several decades. Uh we found mentioned also in the MEA statement but this kind of formalization of that relationship into a NATO style pact is what has raised concerns. Let's begin with the biggest question that arises for us. What does this deal mean for
2:26 India? Yeah, thank you very much uh Tina for having me on the show. Uh yeah, you're very right. I think this is the big question. But uh what I would like to say at the moment is uh that uh let us not uh get ahead of ourselves. Let us not jump the gun. Let us you know today we've just come to know that this agreement has been signed. Let us see when the agreement is uh released when we get full details of what are the terms conditions etc etc. Mhm. And that is exactly what the ministry of external affairs has said that uh we were aware that discussions as far as this is concerned were going on. Now I'm also quite certain that if
3:12 uh the government felt that it was something very uh damaging as far as our own national security is concerned they would have taken some action preemptive action on that in terms of talking with Saudi Arabia etc. But obviously India has not done that. The second point Tina we need to keep in mind is that India's relations with Saudi Arabia are very robust. They're very strong. They're very wide ranging. You know a large number of areas whether it is trade whether it is uh energy whether it is you know even as far as uh let us say in 2023 when India was uh the chair of G20 the IMC was signed India
4:01 Middle East Europe economic corridor so that goes through this so whether it's investment or trade or even as far as defense is concerned because recently In I think 2020 we had the visit of our army chiefs there. After that uh the defense cooperation between the two countries has been accelerated. So our relations with there is great understanding we have a strategic partnership council with Saudi Arabia. The meeting of that took place just in April when Prime Minister Modi was there. Prime Minister Modi has been given the highest award by Saudi Arabia. The point I'm trying to make is that the relations between India and Saudi Arabia are very strong, very vibrant, very
4:46 dynamic and so uh you know we need to have confidence in this relationship. Of course uh you know going ahead in the program Tina we can discuss as to you know because there you know it has not happened in vacuum it is there's a geopolitical context there's a regional context why this is taking place right and also we need to be uh mindful of the fact that this relationship you know Pakistan there's been a formal relationship also not only informal formally Pakistan has been training Saudi uh soldiers Saudi officers and more than 8,000 of their uh defense personnel have been trained by Saudi by
5:33 Pakistan. So their relationship I mean you know the it is the Pakistan uh army their contingent which provides also security to the royal family in uh in Saudi Arabia in Riyad and uh you know even uh if I remember correctly again the dates one of the former army chiefs of Pakistan Rahel Sharif he after retirement was co-opted by Saudi Arabia to head the uh you know the multi-country military alliance against which had been established against ISIS etc etc there were 41 member countries of that I think to begin with it was
6:18 lesser number but basically most of the members of the organization of Islamic countries was there so this relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has also been strong and we have to really see once you know any details are available. You're right, ambassador. So in the geopolitical context in the region, whether it's a signal more to Israel than to India is something that we will delve in greater detail in due course of the program. But back home, air marshall, what's raising concerns, what's triggered debates countrywide is the wording of the pact that attack on one will be treated as an attack on both. and and since uh this news has come out uh what India is worried about uh in terms of the security aspect is
7:04 that our operation Synindur is not over yet. India has categorically said that any terror attack on India uh henceforth will be treated as an act of war and will meet with an adequate response. So as per this defense pact will it mean and and we need to perhaps also uh give an appropriate answer to everyone who's raising this question that will this defense pact going forth mean that if in future another conflict breaks out between India and Pakistan due to terrorist acts emanating from Pakistani soil will it mean that Saudi Arabia will aid Pakistan against India? See uh let's see the background uh all conflicts which have happened with Pakistan and India ever since
7:51 independence in all their narratives all their books all their you know curriculums uh they have defeated India. So this is the irony of Pakistan. 48 war, 65 war, 71 war. There's absolutely no mention in the books about creation of Bangladesh. There is no mention in Pakistani books about 93,000 prisoners of war which India took during 1971 war. There is no mention anywhere in their records and books to a normal narrative that they lost Cargill Heights. There is absolutely no mention. And why go far this opinion just got over on 10th May uh uh there was distribution of sweets uh in streets of Rahul Pindi Islamabad
8:37 Lahor that they have won the narrative which they have given to the countrymen we shot down six Rafaels they showed some pictures we have put down S400s and this thing so in my appreciation with this background they have an ability to convert weakness into strength for their own people. So there what ambassador was saying is absolutely correct. The details of this agreement are not clear as yet but there is an agreement that we all know and the wording of this agreement have been taken in this context to show that you know Pakistan has struck a deal with Saudi Arabia and now if anything happens to us uh so this is one aspect. Second aspect which we should not forget it has something to do
9:23 with the Israeli strike on Qatar. the the Israeli fighters flew around 1,800 km 15 of them a few days ago and struck the Hamas people in Qatar and I'm sure they would have overflown this area Saudi and other area must have done refuelings at least two sets of refuelings would have been needed for the jets to get airborne from Israel bomb and go back to Israel. So it cannot be that the uh countries over which these aircrafts have flown were not taken into confidence before the strike. So this is sure. Now what has happened with the strike is that it has shaken up this complete area uh because one after
10:10 the other be it Syria be it Lebanon and be it you know targets in nearby countries targets in Iran and even Egypt is on hot standby. Uh the Qatari targets have been hit. Uh this has uh uh the second time uh the first time the Iranians hit the US base after their uh uh B2 bombers came and attacked the nuclear facilities. So this this has somehow militarily you know shaken up the Gulf region. Now what Saudi in my appreciation tends to gain is it is operating the American platforms, the western platforms. The bulk of the supplies in this region is by the Americans and Pakistani military
10:57 hardware like the ambassador just said that the army, navy and the air force has an element of Pakistani instructors there and like the royal family is guarded by the Pakistani troops in Saudi. Similarly there is an exchange of instructors. So Pakistani instructors go and you know teach uh the people in theirademies and there is a cross posting and cross trainining of people from Pakistani side to Saudi. So the military interface between these two countries go back to many decades. uh they are wanting to strengthen on that and Pakistan saw an opportunity in this turmoil in the Gulf region to show that in case it is attacked by India in
11:43 future the Saudis will come to the rescue of the Pakistanis. So this is the narrative that has gone around since yesterday in complete media and the channels of Pakistan. uh it is not clear, it is not sure but it throws up lot of challenges uh in the neighborhood in my appreciation. Uh the three countries which are affected by this agreement, one is Israel, second is Iran and third is US. Now what happens to these three countries relations with Pakistan has to be seen. Iran is now getting surrounded uh you know by all sides because if Saudi and Pakistanis collaborate uh it is a threat to Iran.
12:28 So that will push in my appreciation Iran more closer to China and Russia to get their hardware other support. The nuclear targets have already been hit and they are also threatening that Israel may carry out another strike. Now if that happens uh Israel now if it unfolds more in my appreciation may take on an option of preemptive strike on Pakistani nuclear facilities because so we we we will talk about some of the security threats for all of these countries and particularly in context of India because if now Saudi money is flowing into Pakistan how does it also embolden the jihadist force for forces in our neighborhood is something that we cannot overlook and we we will discuss that in the next round. But ambassador
13:15 since you know air Marshall spoke about the Israel factor let me get in your views on how how significant could the Israeli threat for Saudi Arabia be given that uh you know Saudi Arabia and at one point in time wanted to normalize ties with Israel with Pakistan on the contrary it had a frosty relationship for several years. Do you think what happened in Qatar could be a reason strong enough for Saudi Arabia to actually secure this kind of defense agreement with Pakistan? Yeah, thank you Tina for this question. You see there can be no other reason. This is the only reason I think uh by attacking Qatar and but of course you know what Israel says and I think that is what the evidence also is that it has
14:01 carried out surgical precision strikes basically against the Hamas operative the Hamas leadership that was in DHA. It was not against uh you know it was not uh a blanket sort of an attack on Qatar as such but I think this has uh railed not only Qatar but also you know a large number of other countries in the region and you would have seen that you know Egypt has uh yesterday termed Israel as an enemy country. Now uh you would have also noticed that you know after the camp David Accords Egypt has never spoken of Israel as an enemy state as an enemy nation but this has had a far-reaching consequences so it is not
14:48 only Qatar but it is the whole region there because they feel that you know Israel cannot is not predictable Israel cannot be trusted it is not credible so we have to make uh uh you know alternative arrangements that uh if push comes to shove and then we are at you know there is some sort of a threat then we have some security and I think that is the only reason why it has been done. I think it is formalizing an arrangement. Pakistan has already been as I said and as the MR also said Pakistan has already been supporting uh you know and providing military help and assistance here it tends to formalize
15:34 it. What I would like to mention just speculate as I said you know and the government has also said this we will wait for the final agreement you know the uh final uh uh formulations that are because this would be you know a sort of a journalistic uh uh you know impressions that are being shared that attack on one is an attack on other I'm sure there will be cowouts for uh countries ries particularly you know those countries which are very friendly as far as Saudi Arabia concern is concerned India definitely falls in that category so we'll really have to wait and see but to coming to your
16:20 question Tina yes it is uh uh you know Israel actions by Israel although Israel is trying to justify it saying that you know when the United States uh had wanted to uh you know act against Osama bin Laden. They did that in 2011 when the United States had wanted to act against the terrorists who were responsible for the 9/11 attacks. It went to Torabora and in Afghanistan and it you know attacked those countries. So it's trying to rationalize it's trying to justify but of course no one is buying this uh argument. So ambassador, is it also a message to the United States? Do you think Saudi Arabia and
17:07 countries in the Arab world are now wary of their reliability on the United States given what happened in Qatar and perhaps they believe that it had the tacit approval of the US president. You know, let's uh put it this way, man. What Donald Trump has said that he was not informed before this attack took place and we have had Marurio, of course, he comes and makes different noises when he is in Tel Aviv and he makes noise in when he's in Dha because you know he is but then Qatar is a very strong military strategic partner as far as the United States is concerned. It is its biggest base in Qatar. The United
17:52 States has and it has sta station stationed thousands of troops there. So you know that relationship is also important. You would recall that you know in his first visit in the second term he had gone President Trump had gone to the region. He'd also traveled to Qatar and uh he'd got a red carpet treatment and Qatar had even gifted him a $475 million worth of you know aircraft for his personal use. So the relations between Qatar and the United States are very strong as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned against you know much of its uh defense equipment and its uh security uh paraphernalia that really
18:39 comes from the United States and the relations of all these countries whether it is Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Jordan etc with United States are very vibrant very robust and I don't think that that is going to get impacted too much. So maybe Saudi Arabia will have to look into the implications of all this uh that you know what is going to be the impact on other partners of Saudi Arabia if there were because Pakistan is not a very credible country meaning it has 200 million people its economy is in shambles per capita income is $1,400 and you know it is given to terrorist
19:26 activity. So I'm sure Saudi Arabia would not like to get involved, land itself in a situation created by Pakistan where its own responsibilities in the You're right ambassador and that's where the concern comes from. You know, since the news broke, social media has been a buzz because it's a country which which is politically unstable, economically weakened, but is now claiming to be the net security provider in the Arab world. The concern here is uh not about Saudi Arabia getting uh you know meddled into India Pakistan conflicts. The concern is that uh the funds that may come from Saudi Arabia may be used to embolden the jihadist forces and air Marshall this is something uh that has been cited as a
20:14 huge security threat by people who served in the Indian government for years. They know the system they know how Pakistan operates. How how uh uh threatening could be in ter could it be in terms of uh uh our security because for years India has made consistent efforts at UN platforms to list these terrorist organizations and uh you know uh dry up their funds but if there is money coming in and they stand up back on their feet it it it also weakens our fight against the terrorist forces. So how do you look at it from that angle? The threat to security forces and India's war against terror. See, I just tweeted a little a while ago that Pakistan has mortgaged its nuclear
21:00 weapons to Saudi Arabia for $6 billion in the first trench. So this was my tweet a little while ago. Uh this covers the aspect that Saudis are looking for a nuclear umbrella because uh as things are unfolding they would need an ally in case of any you know use of tactical nuclear weapons by any of the countries they need an umbrella. So Pakistan has you know leveraged this uh thing which they have. Now specifically coming to your question about the money which they get. Yes, of course, there is absolutely no doubt in anybody's mind that all the IMF loans or the World Bank trenches which they get is some part is siphoned off for the the satellite pictures which
21:49 I just saw a few days ago available on open sources. It showed to indicate that at Murit K, Bahavalur all these places which were stuck during option on 7th early morning have been reconstructed. they have come up. The airfields have been you know repaired Khan just got operationalized a few days ago. It took them 4 months to get that runway online. Both Sakar and other Jakuabad airfields and Soda airfields have been repaired and up on track. So it's a matter of time that they will regroup. And one other factor which is little diplomatic in nature that the Chinese probably have realized that the closeness between Pakistan and America now of late mainly after opindul
22:36 may not be to their liking. So Pakistan is in their larger scheme of things maybe opening up another avenue uh less China that from where some funding so they find an ally in Saudi which is in need of the Gulf region to have a nuclear umbrella which needs more troops in case it has some skirmish with Israel or any other regional country. Uh the next aspect which I feel has not been spoken is Houthis issue in Yemen. So Houthis have been you know funded by Iran. So when this pinch comes you may find that Israel may take you know aircrafts and come and start bombing
23:21 targets in Yemen and this area would again open up. So uh that's what I said in the beginning in my appreciation. Israel, Iran and India are the three countries which would be discussing the implications of this agreement which uh we just began this program with. It will take a little more time for it to unfold and in my appreciation Saudi may not do anything a big scale which may because the relation between India like ambassador covered are deep and strong and India being the fourth largest economy becoming a regional power and aspirations of a global power would certainly need uh you know the energy flowing and vice versa the Saudi will also need India by the side and the
24:08 defense cooperation between the two countries is one. So whether you know Saudi will be intervening as much in Pakistani affairs is something that we'll have to wait and watch and and the details of the agreement will uh be known in a few days. But as air marshall suggested it could be also the other way around that Pakistan could be getting embroiled in a prolonged conflict that we see in the West Asian region and especially uh as far as the Houthis are concerned in in relation to Saudi Arabia. Uh amazd I'll take a related question on the security threat and about the funding. Uh I I was going through of course social media handles and I came across geopolitical analysts who've been citing it as huge security threat. They're saying Pakistan will now be able to buy US weapons that it it has been needing for a long time
24:53 now with Saudi money and which Trump administration seems uh quite willing to sell and they're citing examples from what happened in the 1970s when the US Congress was unwilling to approve loans under the foreign military funding for Pakistan. How concerning could that be for us? Pakistan has the money to buy American weapons and using against India. Yeah, you know as far as the buying of American weapons by Pakistan is concerned, US will supply it to Pakistan if it considers that it needs its own foreign policy interest. You know, it's not going to be sort of uh dictated very much by Saudi Arabia, you know, Saudi interests or etc. But you're right that
25:41 you know the uh Saudi Arabia in any case provides funding both Saudi and UAE who have the possibility they have been providing funding. You would remember that whenever Pakistan has economy has really faltered very very badly it's required to pay off loans its installments etc. it goes you know with a begging bowl to uh UAE to Saudi Arabia to countries like that who bail it out. If you remember some time ago there was you know it had gone to China it was rebuffed by China and then it had gone running to its partners in
26:27 West Asia. Now because of the Islamic uh card because of the Islamic affinity this has been coming to Pakistan you know quite often of late of course this had also stopped uh somewhat but it could commence but I'm sure that as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned it will uh ensure it will that there are adequate safeguards in terms terms of what where Pakistan is using that funding and uh you know as far as the United States is concerned it'll really see what its uh if its uh interests are served only then
27:15 will it uh supply right now it's posing up to Pakistan has basically been because it needs access possible access to Iran you know when it had gone to bomb the nuclear facilities in Isvahan, Natans, Shira etc. So it needs Pakistan for that. It also I think uh President Trump's uh personal family business deans that is what was uh required for the cryptocurrency and also maybe if there is some oil or min uh critical minerals. So I think as far as US is concerned it will be guided purely by its own interests whether its
28:04 own interests are advanced in that way and Pakistan in that case will not really have that possibility to to order weaponry from the United States off the shelf. So this is uh I think uh all these matters are going to become clearer once we have a better idea of the agreement which should uh sort of you know see the light of the day in the coming weeks. Absolutely. You're right. So for now as India studies the implications and uh uh our our diplomats calibrate on on our diplomatic outreach with Saudi Arabia, we'll have to wait and watch for that agreement and the details to come out. Time allows me to take up only that much
28:49 on the program. Gentlemen, thank you once again for your time. It it's it's a bilateral agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, but it has crucial alignments, realignments in the West Asian uh geopolitics, something that we'll all have to wait and watch out for. So, with that, we'll have to wrap up the conversation. Thank you once again to both my guests and to your viewers. Thank you very much for your time as well. Thank you very much. [Music] TV subscribe YouTube channel like or share.
