What will happen in the 3rd Ashes Test? The Ultimate Betting Guide

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संक्षिप्त सारांश

यह पॉडकास्ट तीसरे एशेज टेस्ट के लिए सट्टेबाजी का मार्गदर्शन प्रदान करता है, जिसमें टीम की खबरें, पिच रिपोर्ट, इन-प्ले रणनीतियाँ, सट्टेबाजी के टिप्स और खिलाड़ी की जीत दरें शामिल हैं। इंग्लैंड की मौजूदा स्थिति, संभावित टीम बदलावों और मैच के संभावित परिणामों पर चर्चा की गई है। विशेषज्ञ ऑस्ट्रेलिया के जीतने की संभावना पर प्रकाश डालते हैं, लेकिन ड्रॉ की संभावना को भी ध्यान में रखते हैं। नाथन लियोन जैसे प्रमुख खिलाड़ियों के प्रदर्शन और कुछ सट्टेबाजी रणनीतियों पर भी प्रकाश डाला गया है।

  • इंग्लैंड की निराशा और टीम में संभावित बदलाव पर चर्चा की गई है।
  • पिच रिपोर्ट और मैच के दौरान विकेट गिरने के समय का विश्लेषण किया गया है।
  • ऑस्ट्रेलिया के जीतने की संभावना पर प्रकाश डाला गया है, लेकिन ड्रॉ की संभावना को भी ध्यान में रखा गया है।
  • नाथन लियोन जैसे प्रमुख खिलाड़ियों के प्रदर्शन और कुछ सट्टेबाजी रणनीतियों पर भी प्रकाश डाला गया है।

परिचय

क्रिकेट सट्टेबाजी पॉडकास्ट में आपका स्वागत है। यह तीसरा एशेज टेस्ट के लिए सट्टेबाजी का मार्गदर्शन है, जिसे 7bet.co.uk द्वारा प्रस्तुत किया गया है। पॉडकास्ट में पॉल कृषी और रिचर्ड मान भी शामिल हैं, जो तीसरे एशेज टेस्ट के लिए अपनी राय और सर्वश्रेष्ठ दांव साझा करेंगे।

इंग्लैंड की दुर्दशा

इंग्लैंड दो-शून्य से पीछे है, और टीम मानसिक रूप से सदमे में है। ऐसा लगता है कि स्टोक्स और मैकुलम के बीच कुछ मतभेद हैं, और स्टोक्स मैकुलम की रणनीति से पूरी तरह सहमत नहीं हैं। एडिलेड इंग्लैंड के लिए वापसी करने के लिए अच्छी जगह है, क्योंकि यह ऑस्ट्रेलिया में सबसे अच्छा बल्लेबाजी विकेट है। टिम पेन ने कहा है कि एडिलेड वह मैदान है जहां इंग्लैंड के पास बल्ले से कोई बहाना नहीं होगा।

अंडरडॉग पर दांव लगाना

सट्टेबाजी के नजरिए से, अंडरडॉग पर दांव लगाना हमेशा फायदेमंद होता है। अतीत में कई बार ऐसा हुआ है जब इंग्लैंड ने ऑस्ट्रेलिया में एशेज मैच जीते हैं, भले ही उनकी टीम कमजोर रही हो। एडिलेड का मैदान इंग्लैंड के अनुकूल है, और टॉस और मौसम जैसे कई चर हैं जो भाग्य को इंग्लैंड के पक्ष में कर सकते हैं। हालांकि, इंग्लैंड का प्रदर्शन अब तक बहुत खराब रहा है, और वे मनोवैज्ञानिक रूप से भी कमजोर दिख रहे हैं।

सीरीज स्कोर की भविष्यवाणी

ऑस्ट्रेलिया के सीरीज जीतने की संभावना 1.16 है, जबकि ड्रॉ की संभावना 28 से 1 है। रिचर्ड मान का मानना है कि इंग्लैंड के पास 20 विकेट लेने की क्षमता नहीं है, खासकर एडिलेड जैसे मैदान पर। उन्हें लगता है कि इस मैच में ड्रॉ होने की संभावना है। पॉल का मानना है कि 30 से 1 पर ड्रॉ सीरीज में ट्रेडिंग वैल्यू है।

टीम समाचार

मार्क वुड श्रृंखला से बाहर हो गए हैं, जो इंग्लैंड के लिए एक बड़ा झटका है। इंग्लैंड की टीम में कुछ बदलाव होने की संभावना है, जिसमें पोप की जगह बेथेल को शामिल किया जा सकता है। रिचर्ड मान का मानना है कि जोश टंग को भी टीम में शामिल किया जाना चाहिए, क्योंकि वह एक विकेट लेने वाले गेंदबाज हैं। ऑस्ट्रेलिया की टीम में उस्मान ख्वाजा की वापसी हो रही है।

खिलाड़ियों का प्रदर्शन

पॉल कृषी का मानना है कि इंग्लैंड की टीम में खिलाड़ियों के बदलाव से ज्यादा फर्क नहीं पड़ेगा। रिचर्ड मान का मानना है कि ख्वाजा को शीर्ष क्रम में बल्लेबाजी करनी चाहिए, ताकि इंग्लैंड को 250 रन पर तीन विकेट पर ट्रैविस हेड को आउट करने का मौका न मिले। पॉल का मानना है कि जैक्स को टीम में शामिल किया जाना चाहिए, क्योंकि एडिलेड की पिच स्पिनरों के अनुकूल होगी।

पिच रिपोर्ट

एडिलेड की पिच को बल्लेबाजी के लिए अच्छा माना जाता है, लेकिन 2024 में यहां एक कम स्कोर वाला टेस्ट मैच हुआ था। रिचर्ड मान के अनुसार, एडिलेड में मौसम अच्छा रहा है, और पिच एक सपाट विकेट होगी। पॉल कृषी का मानना है कि पिच बल्लेबाजी के लिए अच्छी होगी, लेकिन यह उतनी सपाट नहीं होगी जितनी कि उम्मीद की जा रही है।

मैच की भविष्यवाणी

रिचर्ड मान का मानना है कि ऑस्ट्रेलिया यह मैच जीतेगा, लेकिन उन्हें लगता है कि ड्रॉ की संभावना भी है। पॉल कृषी का मानना है कि ऑस्ट्रेलिया यह मैच जीतेगा, और नाथन लियोन दूसरी पारी में स्पिन का फायदा उठाएंगे।

इन-प्ले रणनीति

पॉल कृषी ने एक इन-प्ले रणनीति का सुझाव दिया है जिसमें ऑस्ट्रेलिया के जीतने पर 2.08 पर दांव लगाना और इंग्लैंड के जीतने पर 6.4 पर दांव लगाना शामिल है। रिचर्ड मान का मानना है कि नाथन लियोन दूसरी पारी में स्टंपिंग के जरिए विकेट लेंगे। पॉल कृषी का मानना है कि ड्रॉ की कीमत में गिरावट आने की संभावना है, खासकर अगर शुरुआती विकेट गिर जाते हैं।

खिलाड़ियों पर ध्यान

उस्मान ख्वाजा और मार्नस लाबुशेन ऑस्ट्रेलिया के लिए प्रमुख बल्लेबाज हैं। लाबुशेन का एडिलेड में शानदार रिकॉर्ड है। रिचर्ड मान हैरी ब्रूक के खिलाफ हैं, जबकि पॉल कृषी को उन पर भरोसा है।

शीर्ष बाजार और जीत दरें

लाबुशेन के ऑस्ट्रेलिया के लिए शीर्ष रन-स्कोरर बनने की संभावना 17.6% है। कैमरून ग्रीन के ऑस्ट्रेलिया के लिए शीर्ष गेंदबाज बनने की संभावना 31% है। रिचर्ड मान लाबुशेन और स्टार्क का समर्थन कर रहे हैं, जबकि पॉल कृषी नाथन लियोन और एलेक्स केरी का समर्थन कर रहे हैं।

इंग्लैंड के खिलाड़ी

जो रूट के इंग्लैंड के लिए शीर्ष रन-स्कोरर बनने की संभावना 24% है। जैक क्रॉली का जीत दर 22% है। रिचर्ड मान क्रॉली और जोश टंग का समर्थन कर रहे हैं, जबकि पॉल कृषी क्रॉली और कार्स का समर्थन कर रहे हैं।

सात बेट स्पेशल और सर्वश्रेष्ठ दांव

सात बेट एक विशेष ऑफ़र दे रहे हैं जिसमें £10 का दांव लगाने पर £10 का मुफ्त दांव मिलता है। रिचर्ड मान के सर्वश्रेष्ठ दांव हैं: मार्नस लाबुशेन का शतक, जोश टंग का शीर्ष इंग्लैंड गेंदबाज बनना, हैरी ब्रूक का 31.5 से कम रन बनाना और ड्रॉ पर दांव लगाना। पॉल कृषी के सर्वश्रेष्ठ दांव हैं: मार्नस लाबुशेन का 29.5 से अधिक रन बनाना, नाथन लियोन का 4.5 से अधिक विकेट लेना और एलेक्स केरी का शीर्ष रन-स्कोरर बनना और सबसे अधिक छक्के मारना।

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0:01 Welcome to the cricket betting podcast. I'm Ed Hawkins. This is the ultimate betting guide to the third ashes test. We're brought to you by 7bet.co.uk, a fresh sports betting brand that offers such features as early payout, bet builder, betting insights, a boost, and more. Go to sevenbet.co.uk and experience worldclass betting for yourself. That's seven bit seven bet with a seven. Let's say hi to Paul Krishi who is plus 30.7 on your best bets ready to burn for the third Ash's time. Got Jins Seng Paul. >> I've got the Jins Sen light up. >> This is a tough one. This is an 11:30 start. When you going to sleep? I don't know. >> Perhaps that's the one strategy we need

0:47 to work out. Um don't sleep, Paul. Is that it? >> I That's my plan. I I like this one. This is ideal because you just, you know, you're definitely going to make it through to the tea and hopefully longer. >> Richard manportinglife.com is also here. Plus 5.9 on your best bets. All right, Richard. >> Yeah, good. Hello, Ed. Yeah, I think this is where we need England to come to the party, isn't it? We're all going to fall asleep if it's a non-event, but if we can finally get an Ashes contest on the go, I think we'll all be awake and looking forward to it. Come on, England. >> Right, those best bets come at the end of the show. So stay tuned. Uh it's all on the Ash's third test match here. So to get to that point of best bets for this game, we've got team news, pitch

1:33 report, in place strategies, betting nuggets, player win rates. We've done deep dive datas on these ones to try and work out what is actually going to happen in this test. And we are going to tell you exactly what happens. But we must first address England's misery. Two-0 down. We've been here before. uh Richard Mann every ashes tore down under bar by one that I've covered has been exactly like this. So familiar story um apart from I think this is the first time I can remember after two tests that an England team or England captain has come out and basically said they're mentally shocked. Uh what are your views Richard? Because I found it pretty extraordinary. I was expecting them to

2:18 double down or at least back back themselves and they've gone, "Oh, it's not working." >> Yeah, I do think it was born out of frustration from Stokes a little bit because him and Jax were the only ones to put up much of a fight towards the end of that game. And actually, and this is going way off course a little bit. I I sense a little bit of conflict between Stokes and McCullum. Now, I kind of think that Stokes doesn't completely buy into this McCullum theory and strategy. I mean, McCullum said they were underprepared and then Stokes was asked about that and he said, "Well, it's the way you prepare." And I I just I'm not sure that's working out. Um, I think Adlay's a good place though for England to come. I don't want to sound overly positive and have egg on my face, but of all the grounds, he's probably the best batting pick in

3:04 Australia. And as we've said time and time again, England need it flat. Weather's been great there this last week. Um, and the bounce is lower than Perth and the Gabber. And it's the the sideways movement of the bounce that's been catching the batting out. So if there is a bit of semblance of hope, I think it is the venue. I know Tim Payne's come out this week, Adelaide strikers, head coach for the big bash actually, and he said this is the one ground where England really will have no excuses with the bat. >> Well, I mean, maybe they should be doubling down on the approach. This is the game when they absolutely have to go hard and be aggressive. Um, we'll see. Paul, I mean, as gamblers, we're always trying to look for value and the first place we look is the underdog. Do we lean on previous Ash's history here when

3:50 England go to Australia? Uh, do we try to treat it as an exclusive one-off game, an event in its own right, and ignore all that? Um, and can England bust that trend or uh the other question is are they completely shot? >> Look, everything I know about betting, particularly cricket betting, says yes, you have to look at the underdog. I mean, I've lost count of the times in my life where even me as a outsider backer has said, look, this is a certainty. This is an odds on chance, right? you know, this is something I'd pile into at one or two or something and it gets turned over, right? The [clears throat] experiences like that had a profound impact on me in my teens, early 20s in

4:38 partic including in Ash's matches. I mean, just to think of one, we were at Adelaide 1994, 1995, Goff and Defrightus, heroics that was just like I couldn't see that on what we what had happened previously in the series, but it happened. There was another game in Melbourne which I actually bated I think in the tour after that when England were like 8 N to1 or something. So it does happen even when we've had poor sides. Um and Rich just made a good case there for saying this ground suits them better than the others. And I think there are a lot of variables in there that might throw luck in like the toss, maybe the weather. Um, so yes, all the conditions are there to say maybe we could get an upset, but then again, if you go on what

5:24 we've seen so far, 3.7 about England is no value whatsoever. I mean, they've been terrible. They've been like rabbits in their headlight. Uh, I don't think this side is anything special. They are beatable, but England have looked awful and psychologically in a mess. >> Okay, Australia 16's on to win that series. AK bets 20 to1 bet Fred Lab Brooks AK bets the draw is 28 to1 I mean if you think England are going to get back into it surely the draw is uh the bet short to win three than they are two and a draw 5-0 Australia 2 to1 AK bets now they're the standout uh 4-1 Australia 11 to4 365 boils 4-0il 13-2 bet MGM Virgin AK bets Australia 3 to1

6:12 Sorry for Australia three one correct score 10 to one generally uh and your drawn series going back to that 28 actually I mentioned is 30 to1 with power and AK bets England will have to win two and that's a draw so you're getting two more points on um that drawn series price rather than the 2-2 correct score so two correct score is a one to play uh Richard what's the final score in the series I think well five lost earlier is 3.3 on on the machine. So, I don't think there's a great deal of value there. I actually think England's England have got lots of problems, but the bowling's a problem. I can't see how they get 20 wickets, particularly somewhere like Adelaide. I mean, there's no spinner to call upon. Haven't really looked like taking 20 wickets so far. I

6:58 know they look great in Perth, but after the first innings of Perth, I should say after that, it's been pretty dire. I personally wouldn't rule out rule out having a drawn match potentially here. I think it's going to be flat this week. I'm not saying England are bankers to make big runs, but a draw is good enough for Australia anyway to retain the Ashes. And then we've always said about Sydney's a potential draw. So I think if you're looking at the correct score market, wanted a play. I'm not mad keen, but Australia 4 nils 9.0 on the exchange. Maybe that's the way I mean you could get a draw this week, but um it looks one way. I just don't it looks one way traffic. England may fight with the bat and improve with the bat. I think they'll come on for the run. I can't see how the bowling gets 20 wickets. That's of more concern to me. >> Yeah. Uh Mark Wood absence now confirmed

7:45 of course out of the series and obviously a massive blow for the reason really that you can see Joe Archer not lasting the remaining three tests. Surely he's going to miss one of those. So England likely to go into at least one of these last three tests with a pretty um powder puff pace attack. you know, the the much wanted England fast bowling unit um may not exist at some point in this series. Uh Paul, any value on those correct scores? Yeah, I think hopefully I mean look for the last test I bet 4-1 5.1 and I cashed it out 3.8. It's actually gone shorter. So that's the sort of thing you're

8:31 looking to do. I think just something in the short term. Look, I don't fancy England here, but 30 point 30 to1 about a draw series does have trading value surely because the only thing you're taking on there is an Australia win. If it were a draw, you've still got a perfectly live bet and if England win, you've got a very live bet. Um, I could also make the case I think Rich makes a good case 9.0 Not not terrible value at all with Sydney there. I mean, again, only thing that's going to screw you there is um England winning this match. So, maybe do those two as a combination and just see where we are after this one.

9:17 >> Okay. Um let's get on with that third Ashes test and just time to tell you about the 0% margin feature at Seven Bet Sports Book. Uh the 0% margin feature at SevenB is designed to offer betting odds that do not include the typical margin added by the bookmaker. Check out more of their features on 7bet.co.uk features. The third Ash's test starts Tuesday night 23:30 live on TNT Sports Australia 5 to 12 with seven bet. All these prices seven bet draw 9 to1 England 11-5. uh come back to Australia's team on a second because all the talk of course is about what changes England are actually

10:02 going to make. Um this is what we think they will do or rather what I think we will do they will do and then we'll get richer's views. So ducket craw crawly bethl uh coming in for pope rootbrook stokes jacks cast one of potel tongue and choffra archer Richard what are they doing for your money how are they lining up >> well very similar I do think they'll they'll make a change with pop at three I really hope will Jack stays in the team I thought he was one of the few bright spots in the last game uh so they either keep him at eight or move him into the middle order, potentially even three, but I suspect they'll want they're going to get Bethlin. They've wanted this for a while now. Um, I'm hearing sort of off the record behind

10:50 the scenes that it's Stokes who's been a massive Ollie Pope fan and were it not for Stokes, he's backing of Pope, we would have seen Bethl in in the team before. Now, that's what I'm hearing. Um, I don't disclose my sources, but that's what I'm hearing. Uh, the other one I'd make, I would have Josh Tongue in. I think England need a wicket taker. He would obviously play Archer, but I would point out at at this stage he's for all the huff and puff, he's what's he taken? Is it three wickets in the series so far? People forget that tongue was England's leading wicket taker in the India series last summer. Only what did he play three games and he took took 19 wickets. I think I'd play tongue personally. I would play Arm as well. For me out your team it'd be tongue for cast and I think I would get

11:36 pots in as well. Someone to try and own off stump but definitely tongue wik taker. >> Yeah, good at mopping up the tail of course. >> Um Australia Kawage of Weather Labane Smith Head Green Kerry Cummins coming back in confirmed Stark Boland Lion pretty much confirmed as well that Lion plays. Of course he does because Adelaide's going to spin. The question mark really is about Kawaja coming back. Where does he bat? Um, does he come back into open or they have said he might go into the middle order, Rich? >> Yeah, I've got exactly the same team as you. I think he comes back in. Yes, middle order is an interesting one, but I think really for England, you don't want it to be 250 for three and Travis head walking out. So, I suspect

12:22 Australia will do what England don't want. Kaguya up top and head at number five. That That's my guess. Paul, does personnel matter to you at all about England, whether they go with Pope or Bethl or Pots or Tongue? >> Not a lot. Um, Pope and Bethful. No, not really. You're probably talking about the difference of 10 20 runs either way in the match. Um, I would say I mean Rich was saying tongue for Car. I'd say Car has got to be in just for his batting if nothing else. and he is the top wicket taker by a long way from the main bowlers. Um, no, the only thing that would make a difference if we had a spinner. I mean, we've got to pick Jacks again because I think we're definitely going to need a spinner in this. So, I think it's going to be a dry pitch and any chance of

13:09 winning is going to need effective spinners in the second inning. >> Right, let's go on to the pitch report. Loads of stats related to the pitch in play. We've done some big studies on when wickets are falling at Adelaide. That's to come. Uh there was a lowscoring test at in 2024 at Adelaide. For all the talk of this being the best batting wicket in the country and statistically it is. That was against West Indies. It wasn't a dayight match. West Indies 188 and 120 played Australia 283 and 26 for no wicket. uh Cummings and Hazwood four wickets a piece in that first innings of the match. Shamar five in the second innings of the match in 2018 that's when we go back to the last

13:55 or rather the previous day night test India versus Australia another lowscoring match um India won defending 323 the highest score in the game was 307 uh and in Sheffield Shield cricket last two years the day games only three of the four won by was seen batting second first match scores of of 350 for 9, 228, 1 195, 307 and 90 degree. It's not an absolute guaranteed road, but Richard man might disagree. More of his famed inside info that he's getting hold of all of a sudden. >> No, just uh one of the coaches at Port Adelaide Cricket Club, um he played

14:41 grade A cricket over there. Um and he was telling me this morning the weather's been beautiful there for the past week or so mid30s. Um he says that cuz if you've seen on social media at the moment the pitch looks very green four days out. Um but we've seen that a lot in England haven't we? They'll leave plenty of grass on and then they'll do a final cut because it's the only way when it's really hot to stop the pitch breaking up. He's adamant that it'll be an absolute road. He says the weather's glorious. It'll be an absolute road. leaving grass on just to ensure it doesn't break up days four and five should we get that far. I must admit I was a I'm a little bit apprehensive because that makes it sound like I'm runs runs runs and I I'm still skeptical about England in that circumstance. Um but look that's a local info hot weather good pitch.

15:29 >> Yeah, I mean you've got to be a bit skeptical about England when you've got some evidence that it's not an absolute runway. Paul, thoughts on those pitch stats and where you might be playing? >> Yeah, well, I mean, I'm not reading too much into past stats because so many of the games have been daylight matches in the last 10 years. Um, and while my gut says it's going to be a good backing wicket, and I think in the old Adelaide tradition and from the one we know from the bash, um, and enhanced by Rich's information, um, those Sheffield Shield scores and the small three day matches in the last decade, three day tests, 400 was only breached once. So, it

16:16 doesn't sound like a road. Um, and my instinct is probably that because we're all expecting a road because that is the general reputation, PAR's going to be set too high yet again for two pretty dodgy batting sites to be honest. >> Yes, I wouldn't be averse to be considering taking on England high lines with the bat. Um, that's the pitch done. That's your team news done. Very simple question to Richard man. Who wins the match? >> Well, I mean, Australia the obvious one. I don't And Paul's going to scratch his head and shake his head at me. I don't think the draw is a shocking price at 12.0 >> on the exchange because if Australia bat

17:01 first and particularly given that they just need a draw and Smith and I mean we'll get on to Labashen in a minute. Record is unbelievable on this ground. They could make a massive score and England might only need to bat half decent in the first innings, get past the follow on and suddenly that's that's half, doesn't it? So I won't I won't mind starting off at that. God, I've got so much trepidation because it involves England batting well, but I it's a big price um given that given the possible circumstances. Yeah, I've got grave concerns about England if they lose a toss and they're bowling first on this one. >> Uh heads could drop very very quickly indeed. You know, and if Australia are getting 400 are getting up to 400 and

17:48 they know they're going to concede 400 500 then I think England are out and they will check out. Paul, uh, same question is who wins the match, but also the patented cricket betting podcast test match odds trade strategy. What do you do with that here? Okay. Well, first of all, I'm just going to say, Rich, I'm not shaking my head at you at all. In fact, I will get more into that on the inplay discussion, right? Uh, but I don't entirely disagree. Look, I'm going to say my prediction for the match is Australia will win and that it will be a dry pitch, a good pitch, but that Nathan Lion will uh exploit conditions in the second innings and bowl us out um on the

18:35 um inplay strategy. Now, this depends on the price because the rules are that the in order to do it, the favorite has to be 1.5 or higher. Now, at the moment, it it is because it's 1.54 Australia on the exchange. So, on current prices, you would be placing an order uh let's just say 2 for Australia at 2.08 and then you double the England odds as well. So, you'd have 0.65 units at 6.4 England. But it might change because Australia might go shorter after the toss in which case it might not be a bet or they might drift and it the odds will be different. I will update that on the um in the free telegram group exactly

19:21 where the um targets are. But just to quickly add on that I mean that strategy the ideal scenario for that strategy is the draw shaing up right and I think rich just made a pretty good case for it. Nice little name check for the free telegram channel which you can get subs subscribed to in the comments below. There's also the VIP channel available. We are in very healthy profits indeed on the VIP channel. That's inplay bets and bets of all sorts into your telegram channel from Richard Paul and myself across all the live matches going on all over the world. ILt20 got the big bash

20:08 starting on the Sunday. Uh you can listen to our big bash preview by the way that was our previous episode. So, loads happening on the VIP and loads of ev evidence that we are making money. Richard, what else happens in the game? One more thing, >> right, I'm Paul's just sort of giving me the tea up there, but Nathan Lion comes back in. Unfortunately, he's not really priced up on a lot of markets at the moment. I'm not sure bookmakers are convinced he plays, but he will definitely play. I think with the weather being hot, it'll dry out. I think if you can get a top Australia bowler market up second innings, Lion would be a man. Not all firms do that, but even just trying to bat Lion over two and a half wickets, second innings.

20:53 I mean, I've just had a quick look at his Adelaide record uh way back 2012, four wickets, second innings India. Uh three wickets against South Africa in 2012 as well. uh what was a seven for against India in 2014 second in innings a three for against South Africa a 6 for against India second innings in 2018 I mean the list goes on I could could could labor the point but Lion second innings at Adelaide absolute absolute machine uh and I suspect as well the other factor is Cummings he won't want to break his back will he coming back so if Lion can do a bit more ball in second innings and he hasn't played as well. That's that's the ideal scenario for this bet. Lion ball, plenty of overs. Take plenty of wickets and and

21:40 hopefully we've got some nice prices about him. >> Well, one more thing that happens in the game, a nugget. >> Okay. Do you mind if I just do two? >> You can have as many as you like actually. >> Okay. So, um I don't think an innings victory should be ruled out here. Um bet fair of 13-2 and Australian innings victory. bet 365 are 11-2 either side for English victory and I think I would take the 11-2 just because I think if I backed a Australia one and England did it I'd kill myself. Um now I also I always talk about test match end right I haven't got it right in the first two matches it's sort of but I think here the value in

22:27 this case because we're expecting decent batting conditions in the first innings so game should drag on a bit I think day four evening at 9.5 is huge value I think that's a really big price because the I always like to do the the evening session anyway because you can get the extra half hour. So you might well end up with like a 35 in the 40hour set 40 over session there. Um and you could potentially cover that either side with 7.5 13-2 day 4 p.m. or 11 to 1 day 5 a.m. That seems like a pretty reasonable price too. >> Okay, thanks Paul. Don't forget to get involved with cricstats.ai. It's the best cricket betting tool. You

23:14 can subscribe using the code POG25 to get a discount. It's where we get a lot of our cricket betting data. And there's no site quite like it in terms of finding betting specific statistics for you to help you with your wages. Let's talk in play and inplay strategies. in the spirit of working out when this Adelaide pitch is at its best, at its worst, if it uh ever is actually significantly poorer, when do wickets fall or when they don't? These are the questions we've been trying to answer. So, look, the last five Sheffield Shield matches in the daytime and one test match. That's 2024 test match. And we

24:00 looked at first and second innings. Just a couple of spots on trends. So two times as many wickets have fallen in the 20- 40 over mark in the first innings than the 60- 80. That's 18 wickets in that 20 to 40 over bracket as opposed to eight in 60 to 80 overs. So then getting significantly easier after the 40 over mark. uh and combining 20 to 60 overs as a bracket, 30 wickets have fallen compared to the next 40 which is just 16. In the second innings, just six wickets have fallen in the 40-60

24:45 bracket. That is in the second innings. So, pretty decent for batting, but that is your sweet spot for when runs should be scored. that 40 to 60 spell. So you're talking about markets such as a fall of next wicket or player individual runs I think to try and exploit there. Um we should say that there is evidence that wickets do fall in clusters um which is also known as a collapse if you like. a six times number of wickets in the first inning study. More than three wickets in a 20 over bracket for four 18 overs and five times in the second inning. Uh Rich, what you got in play? >> Yeah, get your notepads out for that. Was great. Um

25:32 I do think if Australia bat first and and look, we want to have a better look at the pitch. I do think they could make a really really big score. I'm a bit wary of the lines because as Paul said they have been too high but I just don't have faith in England to take 10 20 wickets. The other one and I just mentioned it lying and I'm laboring the point here but he's finally in and we talked about that next method of dismissal stumping. Crawley if he can stay in long enough. Brooke if he can stay in long enough maybe Jamie Smith they'll run at Lion and I think we'll get an Lion stumping in this series. I really do. Now he's finally into the game. So I am gonna stick with that um this week and hopefully someone someone runs past one. Paul, anything in play? >> Yeah, well the key to it all is this draw price. Um I think it's a good it's

26:20 a decent back to lay now, but it could well get even better if there's an early wicket, which probably will be right. Um you know, it's 12.0 now. Wouldn't be surprised if it was one too many wickets and it goes out to 20. Now many ways this can happen. First of all, get a good first innings total which we've already discussed every chance. There is a good chance that this the draw is in the game in play after two days. Um but secondly again it's it's we're quite a long way out for this and I don't like to put too much story weather forecast but the weather forecast I looked at before I think it was ACU weather. It could have been World Weather Online has rain on day five. It had 40% all day, right? Um after very hot weather. So this makes me

27:08 wonder again, you know, if we're in a situation where let's just say Australia bat first, they get 450, they declare at T or they're out at T day two. England start okay get to 100 for two and then the day five weather forecast is for rain where what is it then it's like 7 to 4 or something so I think there's some back to lay potential definitely >> right remember best bets come at the end of the show and a reminder to sub up to that VIP channel in the comments below to get betting tips straight to your telegram channel and get subbed up on cricstats.ai AI and get signed up as

27:54 well please to 7b.co.uk if you like the cricket betting podcast if you could sign up to those guys that helps us keep coming back every single week to give you this info. Uh right players now players to follow players to avoid suspect we have a few to get involved with Kawaj an immediate short for me if he's opening the batting I know Paul Christian might say word on Marish Labashane runs first up Paul >> yeah so based on the assumption we're going to get a good pitch first up um Labashane for me is the inform Aussie batsman and [clears throat] seven bet have his runs for the first innings at is 29.5. I think that's a

28:40 rock solid over. You can also get 11-2 about a Labane ton. I like that. I quite like 5 to1 on a Joe Root ton. Uh certainly formula last year. That's value and a good pitch. And my old favorite 15-8 Harry Brookke first innings 50. I think that's Star Sports that has landed 17 out of [snorts] 32 first innings in test match. So it should be better short than even money and we're expecting a good pitch. That's got to be value. >> Uh Rich Kawaja short for you. Um Bethl no first class Tom Bethl of course >> Kawaja definitely especially if I actually played does ball well at the lefties. I'm against Brooke I have been all along. So me and Paul are going to

29:26 disagree here. Seven bet the stand out 31.5 I think his first in his runs. That's high compared to to other firms. I would go under. I haven't seen enough evidence to suggest on this tour Paul may add. Haven't seen enough evidence to suggest I want to be buying his runs. Um so yeah, a couple of shorts there. I completely agree about Labashen. We'll we'll get on later in best bets. I was hoping I could bag Labashen first in his ton in the best bets, but I think me and Paul might have an arm wrestle for this one. >> Righty to the top markets and win rates for you. So Australia top first innings run scorer Lavish as mentioned is winning 17.6% of the time. We're getting four to one generally. So, uh, no sugar on Lavishane. Smith who likely will be all the rage.

30:13 Two wins in 19 now on first innings top back giving him giving him a win rate of 10.5% which really is actually pathetic I'm afraid for 3110 chance with Uni Bet. I mean Lashane does have an absolutely tremendous record at Adelaide. So you could make up that. What is it? Uh three and a bit percent um to push you over the 20% margin if you want to take that four to one. Maybe it's milestone betting for your batsman on a flat one. Cam's five wins in 16. So that's 31%. You're getting 11-4 top Australia first things bowler sky bet power bet fair sports book. uh his pipping start by 1%.

30:59 Is this coming time to come in and show why he is the man to follow? Rich, who are you on and how are you following them? >> Yeah, I'm a Labashen man. I I thought I'd seen six to1 with 365 Labashen first in his tongue, but I've just been looking there. Um so yeah, absolutely Labashen. I I think you'd stick with Stark, Australia bowler, wouldn't you? just give him the form and we know we know his body's fine but like I said look at second innings Nathan Lion I think you have to try and get a price on top Australia bowl of second innings and and Lion will undoubtedly be your man >> Paul who are you for >> well for me the number one bet is uh bet

31:44 365 11 to8 on Nathan Lion hitting over four taking over 4.5 wickets I think that he will comfortably do that on this pitch. Um, and I've got to stick with my favorite who landed in the first match and um, went very well, went a lot shorter in the second, Janex Kerry, 12 to1, top first innings run scorer with better 365 and he's 8 to1 to to hit the most sixes in the first innings for Australia, which as I've said in the previous two matches, he has an excellent record. He's I think he's second only to head in this lineup and there's nothing in it. And I mean the logic of it also is that it's good value because Kerry bats with a tail so he's

32:30 bound to have a good slog cut from time to time. Lovely stuff. Uh we're going to move on to England. Don't forget to sub up to that VIP channel. This is the cricket betting podcast. I'm going to give you a live winner as it happens. Our today's bet was Jason Holders to go over performance points and he's done it and he's only bowled what? Ooh, 2.3 overs. There you go. Two wickets for holder. Uh, follow us on the VIP. Come on, get involved. Now, England, we're going to find some winners on the tops markets. These are your key rates. Top first innings bat route 24% just 1% out 3:1 365 boil sky bet power bet fair sportsbook uh Brook 20% you bang on the line 4:1

33:15 Sky Bet Power Bet Fair Sportsbook. I mean, this is a really interesting one. I'd like Rich's view or Paul Zion on Zack Crawley who did look at like a million bucks in that last test. 22% win rate, which is amazing really considering how often he fails. Seven to one top England bat in the first innings with Quinnbeck and no bounce or lateral movement. Uh atinson, I don't think he'll play. I think he might be one of these weak men in the England dressing room. 26.6. 7% win rate, 3 to1 bet, MGM star, Virgin B. Uh Rich picks for you. And also, by the way, Rich Crawley. We I can't believe we didn't discuss this earlier, but driving on the uh Perth where he played at the bash.

34:02 >> Yeah. >> I mean, he had played on that ground. >> Anyway, go ahead. >> No, no, you're right. And then again at the gabber, but you're right. He he looked brilliantly, didn't look brilliant at Brisbane. This is why they've picked him because of these pictures and Adelaide should be absolutely perfect for him. I agree actually. I think he's a a good price in the first innings. Few doubts about a few of them. Brookke just looks a little bit out of form. I do worry about Stokes now. Nathan Lion's backing that hasn't been discussed enough elsewhere, but that's an issue for him. And on that come second innings, and this has been one of your projects, Ed, but ru obviously you've you kept banging the drum. Really good record, second innings. But I think again this could be more applicable here when lions bowling all the a lot of the overs and the challenge against spin and root is

34:48 probably the best player of spin in the world and the others struggle. So I think root second innings in particular becomes a real good bet and I I suspect you'll be itching to get involved on the VIP with that one. Um and England top bowler Josh Tong first innings if he plays um like he's a wicket taker anyway but I think they'll they'll have him against the tail. Uh and the rest of them don't look like they could knock the skin off a rice pudding I'm afraid. >> Uh had rice pudding yesterday. >> Lovely. >> Yeah. Uh Paul, what do you got? Um, England run score is not a market that really excites me very much, but I will absolutely endorse what you're saying about Crawley. That seems like a value better sevens. Um, for the bowler, it's

35:34 got to be Bright and Cast 3 to one. Um, this might save my series actually cuz I had two points at 13 to two and best bets on him being top England wicket taker and he's leading on nine, Stokes on eight, and the next best on three. We know they're juggling the others about, so I'm very confident about that. Um, but yeah, those two, Crawley and Cars. >> Crawley and Cars. There you go. Those are Paul's P. Have we got any other beers on player markets? Uh, Rich and then Paul, or do you want me to move on? >> I'm just about done. >> Yeah, Paul. >> I'm just going to say I quite I'm going to have a combination man of the match. I think it'll be an Aussie. And I think just based on what I've said, 12 to1

36:19 Labashane, 20 to1 Nathan Lion. That's a pretty decent Dutch. >> I think we've pretty much got a consensus on Labashane. I know I haven't piped up much, but I'm very keen on him get getting some runs. >> What What is it? 70 averages here in six test matches. Three tons and 250s. I mean, that's just ridiculous, isn't it? >> Yeah. uh he's just got a great record and you know he has looked in good form. I just can't believe >> he he left a big one out there at the gaba first innings, didn't he? >> Yeah, I just can't believe England get away without a with a with Labash not hurting him significantly in this series. Nothing wrong with keep going in on Labashane from this point. >> Um righty uh let's get to seven bet

37:07 special. Please go and have a go at this. As I said, seven bet are sponsors. They give us loads of support and we'd like you to subscribe with them and uh start depositing so we can keep coming back to you uh into your ears every week. That's why we are doing it every week because of seven bets. We're all in it together. Bet£10, get a10 free bet with the promo code WFB10. First deposit 10 quid minimum 10 stake£10 free bet. Minimum odds even money. Maximum winnings 100 quid 5day expiry bonus T's and C's apply. That should be one of those adverts for people talking really quickly. Uh, best bets time. Both Paul and Richard have five units to spend. A reminder that we are in profits from our best bets. These

37:53 are three tips on the cricket betting podcast. Paul plus 30.7. Uh, Richard Man plus 5.9. um who's come back absolutely superbly and just shown uh what it takes for the mental fortitude to keep taking the wrong prices. Richard man has absolutely done it. And let's go to Richard man for his five units. >> Right, Paul? I'm bagging Labane Ton. Is that okay? >> That's fine. I've got him anywhere. >> I don't think he has much choice, Richard, actually considering you've just said it. But there you go. >> Well, he's got a massive lead on me anyway, so he can give me this one. So, I'll kick off a point. Manus Labashin first innings tongue at 6 to1 bet 365 we've just seen um 1.5 points Gosh Tong

38:39 top England first innings bowler 100 to 30 that's general 1.5 points Harry Brook under 31.5 runs in the first innings that stand out with seven bet that just looks way too high to me and then final point I'm just going to do a simple trade here one point on the draw at 12.0 zero on bet fair exchange and then place an order to lay back at 5.5 which is 9-2. That's me done. >> Paul Christie with your best bets for the third Ash's test. Okay, so two points Manus Labashane over 29.5 first innings runs five to six that's with seven bets Nathan Lion to take over 4.5 wickets at

39:25 11 to8 that's bet 365 and then I will split a point half a point Alex Kerry first inning top first innings run scorer 12 to1 with bet 365 and 8:1 one to hit the most sixes for Australia in the first innings with bet 365. >> There you go. Pens and papers for those ones. This has been the cricket betting podcast telling you exactly what happens in the third Ashes test match. I've got a decent record in this Ashes series so far. The bets do not stop here. They continue on the VIP channel live into your Telegram channel. We'll be online from 11:30 on Tuesday night. We'll be

40:11 through the night making sure we find you the best value. Don't forget to subscribe in those comments below. Get depositing on seven bet please so we can keep coming back with the show every week. This has been the cricket betting podcast with me, Ed Hawkins, Richard Mann, and Paul Krishna Merty. And we will see you next time.

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